,, ერთი გზა, ერთი სარტყელის” ეკონომიკურმა ინიციატივამ აზია – წყნარი ოკეანის რეგიონის პოსტბიპოლარული წესრიგი ახალი გამოწვევების წინაშე დააყენა
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rogorc amboben, `axali abreSumis gza~ – es Cinuri strategiaa axali msoflio wesrigisken
rodis waradgina da aamoqmeda CineTma ekonomikuri iniciativa? am da sxva saintereso sakiTxebze sakuTari mosazrebebi baTumis SoTa rusTavelis saxelmwifo universitetis asocirebulma profesorebma irakli gorgilaZem da laSa baJunaiSvilma gagviziares.
– civi omis Semdeg globalur politikaSi CineTis ekonomikurma ganviTarebam, Sesabamisad, globalur ekonomikur Tu politikur asparezze gavlenaTa cvlam mniSvnelovani cvlilebebi Seitana msoflio wesrigSi. 2013 wels pekinma msoflios `axali abreSumis gzis ekonomikuri sartyelisa da XXI saukunis abreSumis sazRvao gzis~ globaluri ekonomikuri iniciativa – `erTi sartyeli, erTi gza~ warudgina. sxvadasxva monacemiT, iniciativis realizebaSi sami kontinentis (evropa, azia, afrika) 65 qveyana moiazreba, romelTa mosaxleoba msoflio mosaxleobis 70 procents Seadgens, msoflios mTliani produqtis 55 procents awarmoebs da energoresursebis (navTobi da bunebrivi airi) msoflio maragebis 75 procents flobs, – ambobs irakli gorgilaZe. misive TqmiT, marTalia, iniciativa imTaviTve sxvadasxvagvarad gaiges, magram erTi ram cxadia, mis ukan mkveTri geopolitikuri interesebi ikveTeba, kerZod, strategiulad mniSvnelovan azia-wynari okeanis, centraluri da aRmosavleT aziis regionSi dominirebis, msoflioSi ki globaluri ekonomikuri da samxedro-politikuri wesrigis transformaciis SesaZlebloba an survili.
aRniSnuli proeqtis realizeba, rogorc laSa baJunaiSvilma gviTxra, Tavisi arsiT gulisxmobs xangrZliv perspeqtivaze gaTvlil ekonomikuri ganviTarebis koniunqturis Seqmnas; adamianuri, materialuri da finansuri resursis gaaqtiurebas, gasaRebis bazris gafarToebas, mza produqciis, strategiuli nedleulisa da energoresursebis transportirebis alternatiuli marSrutebis organizebas, rac, bunebrivia, ramdenime ekonomikur proeqtsac aerTianebs.
`axali abreSumis gzis ekonomikuri sartyeli~, rogorc irakli gorgilaZem gviTxra, Tavisi arsiT evraziis transkontinenturi vaWrobis derefania.
– igi aris `erTi gza erTi sartyelis~ proeqtis e.w. `saxmeleTo komponenti~, romlis mizani centraluri aziis, axlo aRmosavleTisa da ruseTis gavliT evropasTan CineTis dakavSirebaa. is ramdenime saxmeleTo marSruts: CineTi-Sua azia-ruseTi-CrdiloeT evropa; CineTi-Sua azia-axlo aRmosavleTi (irani, TurqeTi) – xmelTaSua zRvis auzi da pekini-moskovis saavtomobilo da sarkinigzo magistralebs aerTianebs. sartyelis strategiaSi, evraziis calkeul regionebTan mimarTebaSi, pekins gansxvavebuli interesebi amoZravebs. Sua aziis, ruseTisa da axlo aRmosavleTis qveynebTan urTierTobebSi vaWrobis garda gansakuTrebul interess strategiul nedleulze wvdoma iwvevs. am TvalsazrisiT, CineTi aqtiurad aris CarTuli ruseTis, yazaxeTis, iranis, israelis, egviptis, erayisa da sxva qveynebis navTobisa da bunebrivi airis milsadenebis, sarkinigzo sanavsadguro-saterminalo infrastruqturis ganviTareba-modernizebis procesSi. 2016 wels eqspluataciaSi Sevida 10 aTasi km sigrZis iran-CineTis damakavSirebeli transSuaaziuri (yazaxeTisa da TurqmeneTis gavliT) `abreSumis rkinigza~, romelic SemdgomSi TurqeTis gavliT evropis sarkinigzo xazs daukavSirdeba, – gviTxra irakli gorgilaZem.
– evraziis ekonomikuri sartyelis saboloo daniSnulebis adgili evropis regionia, romelic CineTis saxalxo respublikis erT-erTi tradiciuli da istoriuli savaWro partnioria, – gviTxra batonma laSam.
– evrokomisiis monacemebiT, 2014 wels CineTidan evrokavSiris qveynebSi importma 302, xolo eqsportma 165 miliardi dolaris saqoneli da momsaxureba Seadgina. savaWro brunvis gazrdis mizniT, sartyelis strategiis erT-erT mTavar mizans ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis gaRrmaveba da abreSumis gzis evropul infrastruqturul qselTan dakavSireba warmoadgens, – ambobs laSa baJunaiSvili.
rac Seexeba `XXI saukunis abreSumis sazRvao gzas~, irakli gorgilaZis TqmiT, es globaluri ekonomikuri iniciativis sazRvao-saokeano mimarTulebaa da mis ZiriTad mizans CineTis wynari okeanis sanapiros qalaqebis (Sanhai, makao, honkongi, Siameni, ningbo, guanjou, Senjeni, fuZou, habei da sxv.), indoeTis okeanis, wiTeli zRvisa da suecis arxis gavliT evropasTan, samxreT-aRmosavleT aziasTan, afrikis aRmosavleTi sanapiros da wynari okeanis samxreTis perimetris qveynebTan (avstralia da laTinuri amerika) dakavSireba da savaWro-ekonomikuri urTierTobebis gaRrmaveba warmoadgens. abreSumis sazRvao gza, evraziis ekonomikur derefanTan SedarebiT susti mimarTulebaa, rac ganpirobebulia: samxreT-aRmosavleT aziis qveynebis eqsportze orientirebuli ekonomikebis maRali konkurentunarianobiT; ASEAN-s (samxreT-aRmosavleT aziis qveynebis asociacia regionaluri organizaciis faqtoriT da aSS-is samxedro-politikuri gavlenebiT, aseve teritoriuli davebiT aRmosavleT da samxreT CineTis zRvebSi, – gviTxra irakli gorgilaZem. rac Seexeba CineT-pakistanis ekonomikur derefans, laSa baJunaiSvilis TqmiT, postbipolarul samyaroSi CineTisTvis pakistani kvlav strategiulad mniSvnelovan erT-erT geoekonomikur sivrced rCeba, romlis meSveobiTac pekini energoresursebis transportirebis sferoSi e.w. `malakis problemis~ gadaWras cdilobs.
– yovelwliurad daaxloebiT 4 trilioni dolaris sagareo savaWro brunva da yoveldRiurad importirebuli 7 milioni bareli navTobis usafrTxo transportireba aSS-sa da misi regionaluri mokavSireebis mier kargad kontrolirebad bengalis yurisa da malakis sruteze aris damokidebuli. strategiulad mniSvnelovan sruteze damokidebulebis Semcirebisa da alternatiuli marSrutis Seqmnis mizniT, SeimuSaves pakistanis ekonomikuri derefnis koncefcia, romelic hormuzis srutidan 400 km daSorebiT, arabeTis zRvis sanapiroze mdebare strategiulad mniSvnelovan gvadaris navsadguris modernizebas da pakistanis teritoriaze milsadenebis mSeneblobas iTvaliswinebs. aRniSnuli gza mniSvnelovnad Seamcirebs safrTxeebs, manZils (daaxl. 10 aTasi km-iT) da xarjebs. 2015 wels mxareebs Soris xeli moewera xelSekrulebas 46 miliardis investiciis sanacvlod pakistanis strategiuli obieqtebis (navsadguri, milsadenebi, saavtomobilo da sarkinigzo xazebi) 43-wliani ijariT gamoyenebisa da ganviTrebis Sesaxeb, – ambobs baJunaiSvili.
irakli gorgilaZem CvenTan saubrisas aRniSna, rom `samxreTis abreSumis gza~ (CineTi-bangladeSi-mianmari-indoeTis ekonomikuri derefani) samxreT-aRmosavleT aziis regionis mimarTulebas iTvaliswinebs, sadac gansakuTrebuli yuradReba eTmoba mianmaris da bangladeSis geoekonomikur SesaZleblobebs.
– `erTi gza, erTi sartyelis~ strategiis realizeba moiTxovs Sesabamisi satransporto-sakomunikacio sistemis ganviTarebas. am TvalsazrisiT, gamoikveTa 3 prioriteti: pirveli – sakuTriv CineTis teritoriasa, meore – mosazRvre regionebis (aseve subregionebis) ganviTarebadi ekonomikebis mqone saxelmwifoebSi gansaxorcielebeli infrastruqturuli proeqtebi da mesame – ganviTarebuli qveynebis ukve arsebul komunikaciebTan dakavSireba. aRniSnuli amocanis gadasaWrelad ramdenime saerTaSoriso safinanso instituti dafuZnda. maTgan yvelaze soliduri organizacia `aziis infrastruqturis investirebis banki~, romlis mizania infrastruqturuli proeqtebis realizeba, rac axali abreSumis gzis proeqtisaTvisaa aucilebeli. masve daeqvemdebara abreSumis gzis ganviTarebis fondi da BRICS-is ganviTarebis banki.
axali bankis Seqmnis idea 2013 wlis oqtomberSi si Zipinisa da premier li keq iangis mier samxreT-aRmosavleT aziis qveynebSi turnes dros gacxadda. 2015 wlisaTvis 57-ma saxelmwifom (maT Soris indoeTma, avstraliam, indoneziam da sxv.) misi wevrobis survili gamoTqva. 2014 wels 24-ma saxelmwifom xeli moawera bankis dafuZnebis memorandums. imave wels aiib-s damfuZneblis statusiT didi britaneTic CaerTo, miuxedavad vaSingtonisa da tokios winaaRmdegobisa, londonis magaliTs male sxva evropuli saxelmwifoebic (germania, italia, luqsemburgi, dania da Sveicaria) mihyvnen. aiib-Si evropeli partniorebis gawevrianeba ramdenime garemoebiT iyo nakarnaxevi: 2008 wlis globaluri finansuri krizisis Sedegebis saboloo likvidaciiT; evropuli warmomavlobis transnacionaluri kompaniebis interesiT, Careuliyvnen bankis mier dafinansebul mravalmilioniani proeqtebis realizebaSi da globalur ekonomikur urTierTobebSi SeerTebuli Statebis balansirebiT, – ambobs irakli gorgilaZe. misive TqmiT, 2016 wlis 24 ivniss aziis infra-investirebis bankma msoflios sxvadasxva safinanso institutis mxardaWeriT – pirveli – 509 milioni dolaris sesxi gamoyo, romlis farglebSic pakistanSi saavtomobilo magistralebis mSenebloba, tajikeTis sasazRvro saavtomobilo gzebis reabilitacia, bangladeSis eleqtrogadamcemi sistemebis modernizeba da indoneziis sakomunikacio saSualebebis rekonstruqcia daigegma.
– oficialuri pekinis mtkicebiT, dasavluri safinanso institutebisagan gansxvavebiT, aiib-i ar iTvaliswinebs mkacr sakredito politikas (sesxis gacemis, miznobrivi gamoyenebisa da dabrunebis pirobebs), gacemuli sesxi ar aris kreditoris mxridan debitori saxelmwifos Sidaekonomikur an politikur saqmeebSi Carevis da masze gavlenis moxdenis meqanizmi. oficialuri pirebis gancxadebiT, miuxedavad imisa, rom axlad Seqmnil globalur safinanso-sakredito instituts sakuTari principebi, miznebi da amocanebi gaaCnia, igi miznad ar isaxavs, Secvalos arsebuli globaluri finansur-monetaruli wesrigi da emorCileba saerTaSoriso samarTlebriv normebsa da principebs, romlebic aregulirebs arsebul saerTaSoriso ekonomikur urTierTobebs – `aziis infra-investirebis banki iqneba arsebuli sistemis Semavsebeli da ara konkurenti institucia…~.
2015 wels CineTis sagareo saqmeTa ministrma vang ium uaryo gavrcelebuli mosazreba aiib-is `marSalis gegmasTan~ msgavsebis Sesaxeb da ganacxada, rom `aRniSnuli proeqti Sors aris civi omis mentalobisgan… mas ar gaaCnia strategiuli miznebi da ar gamoarCevs beneficiar qveynebs politikuri ideologiis da sagareo politikuri orientaciis niSnebiT~, – ambobs irakli gorgilaZe.
– miuxedavad CineTis saxalxo respublikis xelisuflebis mtkicebisa, rom `erTi gza erTi sartyelis iniciativa~ mxolod ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis gaRrmavebas da transkontinenturi vaWrobis intensifikacias emsaxureba, warmodgenil globalur-ekonomikur iniciativas da mis farglebSi dagegmil mravalmiliardian ekonomikur aqtivobas gansakuTrebuli yuradRebiT adevnebs Tvals SeerTebuli Statebi, ruseTi da regionaluri subieqtebi, radgan sartyelis strategia ufro regionis axali geopolitikaa, vidre ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis axali formati. es bunebrivicaa – kolosaluri investiciebi, regionalur doneze axali saerTaSoriso safinanso-monetaruli da savaWro-ekonomikur urTierTobaTa sistemis formirebis nebismieri mcdeloba ukve arsebulTan konkurenciisa da konfrontaciis safuZvels qmnis, – dasZina laSa baJunaiSvilma.
– pekinis globalur ekonomikur iniciativas indoeTma sakuTari ekonomikuri xedva – `proeqti mausami~ daupirispira. romelic indoeTis okeanis auzis qveynebs Soris (indoneziidan – afrikis sanapiroebamde) savaWro-ekonomikuri da kulturuli urTierTobebis gaRrmavebas, samxedro-strategiul sferoSi TanamSromlobas da naosnobis usafrTxoebis sferoSi integracias iTvaliswinebs, – ambobs irakli gorgilaZe, xolo laSa baJunaiSvilis azriT, CineTis moWarbebuli aqtiuroba garkveul diskomforts uqmnis ruseTis interesebs Sua aziis regionSi, Tumca ukanasknel wlebSi moskovis daZabuli urTierTobebi dasavleTTan mas garkveul daTmobebze wasvlas aiZulebs. Tavis mxriv, pekinic cdilobs ruseTis ndobis mopovebas. 2015 wels mxareebma xeli specialur memorandums moaweres, romlis mixedviT, `axali abreSumis gzis ekonomikuri sartyeli~ `evraziuli kavSiris~ iniciativasTan mWidro koordinaciis pirobebSi unda ganxorcieldes. miuxedavad amisa, partniorebs Soris kvlav rCeba azrTa sxvadasxvaoba regionis samxedro-politikuri mowyobis sakiTxSi. ruseTi cdilobs Sua aziaSi mis mier inicirebul, koleqtiuri Tavdacvis xelSekrulebis organizaciis poziciebis gaZlierebas, CineTi ki regionis usafrTxoebasa da stabilurobis sferoSi sakuTari wvlilis zrdas, romelic ara mxolod CineTis ekonomikur interesebs, aramed Sidapolitikuri stabilurobis dacvis garanti unda gaxdes. – aucilebelia CineTTan urTierTobis strategiis gadaxedva da TanamSromloba-balansirebis politikiT Secvla, risTvisac mkvlevarebi Semdegi moqmedebis aucileblobaze saubroben – es aris preferenciuli savaWro reJimebis damyareba partnior saxelmwifoebTan; potenciurad konkurenti saxelmwifoebisTvis samxedro daniSnulebis teqnologiebze wvdomis SezRudva; CineTis periferiebSi samxedro-politikuri aliansebis formireba (e.w. `strategiuli alya~, romelic anakondas rkalis princips efuZneba) da pekinis winaaRmdegobis miuxedavad, samxreT da aRmosavleT CineTis zRvebsa da indoeTis okeaneSi samxedro-strategiuli poziciebis gamyareba, – gviTxra laSa baJunaiSvilma.
respondentebma Temaze saubari ase daasrules – amgvarad, `erTi gza, erTi sartyelis~ ekonomikurma iniciativam azia-wynari okeanis regionis postbipolaruli wesrigi axali gamowvevebis winaSe daayena. gamocdileba gvafiqrebinebs, rom nebismieri mzardi saxelmwifos mxridan arsebuli sistemis gadaxedvis an Secvlis mcdeloba interesTa konfliqtis safuZveli xdeba. aqedan gamomdinare, gvaqvs safuZveli, vifiqroT, rom xangrZliv perspeqtivaSi aSS-CineTis konfrontacia, regionaluri savaWro-ekonomikuri sistemis dezintegracia da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis polarizacia gardauvali iqneba.