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axlo aRmosavleTis regionis
postbipolaruli saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis aqtualuri problemaa regionis wamyvani saxelmwifoebis – saudis arabeTis da iranis brZola `lideri saxelmwifos~ statusisaTvis, romelic samxedro-politikuri
konfrontaciis paralelurad,
eTnokulturul da religiur
xasiaTsac atarebs
amdenad, aRniSnuli dapirispireba, SesaZloa, ganvixiloT rogorc Sidacivilizaciuri konfliqti. amerikeli mecnieris semuel hantingtonis mosazrebiT, qveynebi sakuTari civilizaciis wamyvani saxelmwifoebis irgvliv jgufdebian, rac Sidacivilizaciur wesrigs amkvidrebs. swored aseTi wamyvani saxelmwifo an saxelmwifoTa jgufi warmoaCens sakuTari civilizaciis interesebs globalur politikaSi, msoflio wesrigs ki mniSvnelovanwilad afuZnebs maT Soris Sejaxebebi an dialogi. Temis irgvliv `aWarasTan~ vrclad da sainteresod baTumis SoTa rusTavelis saxelmwifo universitetis asocirebulma profesorma laSa baJunaiSvilma isaubra.
– batono laSa, samxedro-politikuri TvalsazrisiT ras warmoadgens civilizacia?
– am TvalsazrisiT, civilizacia ar warmoadgens erTian monoliTur organizms. xSir SemTxvevaSi, SigniT arsebul calkeul er-saxelmwifoebs Soris, romlebic gansxvavebuli kulturis, eTnolingvisturi da religiuri mimdinareobis matarebelni arian, arsebobs Sidacivilizaciuri konfliqti, rac metwilad dakavSirebulia birTvi saxelmwifos statusis damkvidrebisken, Zlierebisa da keTildReobisaken swrafviT. islamur civilizaciaSi Sida konfrontaciis sawyis etapad SesaZloa CaiTvalos meSvide saukune, rodesac arabebma regionSi axal monoTeistur religias, vrcel imperias, maRalganviTarebul kulturas, e. w. islamur civilizacias Cauyares safuZveli da regionis uZleveli sparsuli civilizaciis Zlier konkurentebad iqcnen. marTalia, maT SeZles sparselebis gamuslimaneba da sabolood, maTi islamuri civilizaciis nawilad qceva, Tumca iraneli xalxi ar Tmobda uZveles TviTmyofadobas, rac dausrulebeli konfliqtis mizezi gaxda. mogvianebiT ki arabebsa da sparselebs Soris eTno-kulturulma dapirispirebam religiuri motivebic SeiZina. irani islamis erT-erTi mimdinareobis – Siizmis aRmsareblad gadaiqca, romelic orTodoqsul islams – sunizms Tvisobrivad daupirispirda. Sedegad, islamur civilizaciaSi Sida dapirispireba da konfliqti kidev ufro gamwvavda. amgvarad, islamuri civilizacia sabolood or msxvil konfrontaciul erTeulad gaiyo. saukuneebis ganmavlobaSi eTnokulturuli, lingvisturi da religiuri sqizma, anu Sidacivilizaciuri konfliqti wiTel xazad gasdevda aRmosavluri imperiebis geopolitikas, met-naklebad gavlenas axdenda maT saSinao da sagareo politikur orientirebze, saxelmwifo ideologiasa da konfliqtebis eskalaciaze, rac arastabilurs xdida regions.
– islamur civilizaciaSi wamyvani saxelmwifos statusisaTvis brZola rodis ganaxlda?
– am statusisaTvis brZola meoce saukuneSi axali energiiT gaCaRda, rac jer osmaleTis imperiis, xolo meore msoflio omis Semdeg, evropuli koloniuri imperiebis msxvrevas mohyva. arabulma saxelmwifoebma suvereniteti moipoves, xolo SeerTebul StatebTan mWidro partniorobis Sedegad, mniSvnelovnad gaZlierda iranic. damoukideblobis mopovebis paralelurad, sparseTis yuris saxelmwifoebi navTobis msxvil eqsportior saxelmwifoebad gadaiqcnen, ramac maT manamde warmoudgeneli tempebis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis, Zlieri samxedro-TavdacviTi sistemebis formirebisa da saerTaSoriso asparezze wamyvan saxelmwifoebTan partniorobis saSualeba misca. ekonomikuri ganviTarebis fonze kvlav ganaxlda dapirispireba regionis wamyvan saxelmwifoebs Soris. erTi cdilobda pan-arabuli samyaros konsolidacias, xolo meore Zlevamosili sparseTis imperiis aRdgenas.
sxvadasxva periodSi pan-arabul moZraobas sxvadasxva arabuli saxelmwifo edga saTaveSi. 50-60-ian wlebSi egvipte, siria da iordania liderobdnen. maT gavlenas sparseTis yuris arabuli saxelmwifoebic ganicdida. ufro metic, miuxedavad naseris socialisturi msoflmxedvelobisa, arabuli monarqiebis (saudis arabeTi, gaerTianebuli arabuli saemiroebi, yatari, quveiTi, iordania) politikuri elita da xSir SemTxvevaSi samefo ojaxis warmomadgenlebi pativs scemdnen da iziarebdnen `naserizms~ da mis arabuli nacionalizmis ideebs. 1958 wels egvipte-siriis gaerTianebuli arabuli saxelmwifo Seiqmna, romelsac male iemenic SeuerTda, romelic pretenzias acxadebda regionis liderobaze. pan-arabizmis Sekavebis mizniT, irani aqtiurad TanamSromlobda regionis araarabul saxelmwifoebTan (israelTan, sekularul TurqeTTan da avRaneTTan). SemTxveviTi ar iyo, rom Teirans gansakuTrebuli strategiuli da ekonomikuri urTierTobebi gaaCnda israelTan ise, rom de iure arc hyavda aRiarebuli. iranis Sahi reza fehlevi israelisa da iranis kavSirs erTiani safrTxeebis mimarT Semdegnairad axasiaTebda: `arc irans da arc israels surs marto aRmoCndes arabTa zRvaSi~. 70-ian wlebSi ssrk-is daxmarebiT samxedro-politikuri TvalsazrisiT, mniSvnelovnad gaZlierda erayi, romelic iranis erT-erT Zlier konkurentad iqca, Tumca SeerTebuli Statebisa da israelis daxmarebiT, Teirani warmatebiT arTmevda Tavs radikaluri arabuli saxelmwifoebis Sekavebas.
– da regionis hegemonobisTvis brZolaSi axali etapi rodis daiwyo?
– iranis islamuri revoluciis Semdeg, rodesac aiaTola homeinis iniciativiT iranma axali sagareo politikis strategia SeimuSava, rac iTvaliswinebda islamuri revoluciis eqsportiT Teokratiuli reJimebis damyarebas axlo aRmosavleTis saxelmwifoebSi (devizi `arc aRmosavleTi, arc dasavleTi, mxolod islami~). Sedegad Teiranma aqtiurad daiwyo Siituri politikuri Zalebis mxardaWera regionis arabul saxelmwifoebSi (libani, bahreini, siria, erayi da iemeni). Teiranis gaaqtiurebis fonze palestinasa da libanSi mniSvnelovnad gaizarda Siitebis rogorc ricxvi, ise politikuri gavlena, eraySi ki maT sadam huseinis xelisuflebas mniSvnelovani diskomforti Seuqmnes. regionSi islamuri revoluciis eqsportisa da politikuri suraTis Secvlis mcdelobas iran-erayis 8-wliani omi mohyva (1980-88 ww). omma mniSvnelovnad Secvala regionis samxedro-politikuri viTareba. SeiaraRebuli konfliqtis Sedegad baRdadma mniSvnelovani dartyma miiRo, xolo iranma, romelic SeiaraRebuli konfliqtis dros arabuli samyaros pirispir marto aRmoCnda, momavali usafrTxoebisa da regionSi poziciebis SenarCunebis mizniT, birTvuli iaraRis Seqmnis programa ganaaxla, romelic islamuri revoluciis Semdeg aiaTola ruhola homeinis iniciativiT SeCerda. swored, maSin Caeyara safuZveli iranis axal birTvul strategias, romelic usafrTxoebisa da regionSi poziciebis SenarCunebis garanti unda gamxdariyo. amrigad, islamuri revoluciis Semdeg, iranma scada Tavis gavlenebis gafarToeba avRaneTidan libanamde. geopolitikur konkurenciasTan erTad religiuri konfrontacia kvlav gaxda saxelmwifoTaSorisi urTierTobis mTavari laitmotivi.
– civi omis dasrulebis Semdeg, regionSi arsebuli samxedro-politikuri viTareba rogor Seicvala?
– regionSi samxedro-politikuri suraTi arsebiTad Seicvala. 90-ian wlebSi aSS-erayis dapirispireba (1991 wlis sparseTis yuris pirveli omi da 1998 wlis sahaero operacia erayis winaaRmdeg – `operacia udabnos mela~), 2003 wels antiteroristuli kampaniiT dasrulda, riTac vaSingtonma sabolood gaanadgura iranis erT-erTi angariSgasawevi mowinaaRmdege (Semakavebeli), regionis erT-erTi Zlieri moTamaSe, mis xelisuflebaSi myofi suniti lideri sadam huseini da xeli Seuwyo xelisuflebis saTaveSi Siituri politikuri Zalebis mosvlas. siriasa da irans Soris Siituri erayis warmoqmnam, regionSi `Siituri saxelmwifoebis RerZis~ da Teiranis gavlenebis gaZlierebis safrTxe Seqmna. am viTarebaSi aucilebeli iyo iranis Sekaveba, romlis valdebuleba arabuli samyaros axalma gamokveTilma liderma saudis arabeTma aiRo. 2003 wlidan dRemde saudis arabeTis mmarTvelma ojaxma miliardobiT dolaris `investicia~, diplomatiuri da politikuri Zalisxmeva gaiRo saerTaSoriso asparezze, raTa ramdenime miznisTvis warmatebiT mieRwia: pirveli – mniSvnelovnad gaaumjobesa urTierTobebi Tavis Zvel konkurentebTan – TurqeTTan, egviptesTan da yatarTan; pakistanTan, sudanTan da marokosTan Seqmna araformaluri gaerTianeba – `arabul saxelmwifoTa bloki~, romelic mimarTulia iranis winaaRmdeg; meore – xeli Seuwyo radikaluri sunituri mimdinareobebis, metwilad vahabizmis gaZlierebas axlo aRmosavleTis islamur saxelmwifoebSi, gansakuTrebiT im qveynebSi, sadac xelisuflebis saTaveSi Siituri politikuri elitaa moqceuli, Tumca mosaxleobis umravlesoba sunitebi arian; mesame – xels uwyobs mmarTveli sunituri politikuri Zalebis gaZlierebas im arabul saxelmwifoebSi (bahreini, iemeni, erayi), sadac mosaxleobis umravlesoba Siizmis aRmsarebelia. 2003 wlidan dRemde saudis arabeTi solidur finansur da ekonomiur daxmarebas uwevs erayis mosaxleobas, romelic imavdroulad sunituri Temis mxardaWeris tolfasia. er-riadSi aRniSnul daxmarebas `arabuli identobis~ gaZlierebiT iranis gavlenebis Sekavebis aucileblobiT xsnian; da meoTxec – dasavleTis wamyvan saxelmwifoebTan (aSS, evrokavSiris qveynebi), aseve israelTan da TurqeTTan erTad aqtiurad aris CarTuli iranis birTvuli programis winaaRmdeg. saudis arabeTi mxars uWers mkacri ekonomikuri sanqciebis gatarebas, riTac er-riadi imedovnebs ara mxolod birTvuli programis ganviTarebis damuxruWebas, aramed, Teiranis finansur-ekonomikur daqveiTebas, rac irans aqtiuri sagareo politikis warmoebis saSualebas mouspobs (mxedvelobaSia libanSi, siriaSi, eraySi, iemensa da bahreinSi sasurveli reJimebis damyareba). ekonomikuri sanqciebis da diplomatiuri izolaciis garda, saudis mmarTveli ojaxi israelis msgavsad, SeerTebuli Statebisgan daJinebiT iTxovda iranis birTvuli programis samxedro gziT ganadgurebas. 2008 wlis aprilSi eraySi SeerTebuli Statebis elCTan raian krokerTan da general devid peteriusTan Sexvedris dros saudis monarqma abdalah bin ab al-azizma yovelgvari diplomatiuri mokrZalebis gareSe ganucxada maT, rom vaSingtoni valdebulia `gvels Tavi gauCeCqvos~ .
amgvarad, birTvi saxelmwofos statusis mopovebisaTvis aqtiurad mimdinareobs dapirispireba saudis arabeTsa da irans Soris. maTi konfrontaciis asparezs warmoadgens regionis politikurad da ekonomikurad arastabiluri saxelmwifoebi – erayi, siria-palestina, bahreini, iemeni, libani, avRaneTi da sxv. 2003 wlidan dRemde saudis arabeTis mxardaWeriT erayis sunituri samxedro dajgufebebi da politikuri elita aqtiurad cdilobs premier-ministr al maliqis xelisuflebis likvidacias. 2006 wels Siitebsa da sunitebs Soris sistematuri SeiaraRebuli dapirispireba daiwyo, romelic mogvianebiT `teraqtebis omSi~ gadaizarda. 2011 wels, rodesac SeerTebuli Statebis samxedro Zalebma datoves erayi, abu baqr al baRdadis meTaurobiT Cr. erayisa da siriis teritoriaze e.w. siriisa da levantis islamuri saxelmwifo Camoyalibda, romelmac aqtiuri samxedro kampania wamoiwyo erayis xelisuflebis winaaRmdeg.- siriaSi rogor ganviTarda movlenebi?
– `arabuli gazafxulis~ fonze, baSar al asadis reJimis opoziciurma suniturma Zalebma alaviti (Siizmis erT-erTi ganStoeba) mmarTvelis winaaRmdeg siriis qalaqebSi jer saprotesto aqciebi, xolo mogvianebiT SeiaraRebuli brZola wamoiwyes. opoziciuri Zalebis garda (Tavisufali siriis armia), asadis winaaRmdeg konfliqtSi CaerTo al-qaidas mier organizebuli jebhat al nusras fronti, ahrar al Sami, islamuri fronti da `islamuri saxelmwifo~ (daeSi), romlebmac kontroli daaweses erayis mosazRvre siriis CrdiloeT provinciebze. siriis samoqalaqo omSi CarTul radikalur sunitur samxedro dajgufebebs aqtiur mxardaWras uwevs sparseTis yuris arabuli saxelmwifoebi, gansakuTrebiT aqtiurobs er-riadi. saudis arabeTs gaaCnia samxedro-politikuri da ekonomikuri resursi, Seakavos iranis mzardi gavlena regionSi. Tavis mxriv, irani cdilobs libanis hezbolasTan erTad baSar al asadis reJimis SenarCunebas. iranis islamuri respublika aqtiur finansur da samxedro daxmarebas uwevs siriis saxelisuflebo Zalebs. asadis momxre Zalebi cocxali ZaliT mniSvnelovan Sevsebas iReben regionis saxelmwifoTa Siituri Temebisagan. amgvarad, Tamamad SeiZleba iTqvas, rom axlo aRmosavleTis regionSi aqtiurad mimdinareobs brZola gavlenebisTvis, arsebuli wesrigisa da ZalTa balansis transformaciisaTvis, romelic `arabuli gazafxulis~ fonze mniSvnelovnad gamoikveTa. swored, arabul samyaroSi reJimebis cvlilebis dros gamoCnda, Tu ramdenad Rrma da mwvavea religiur-politikuri dapirispireba axlo aRmosavleTis wamyvan saxelmwifoebs Soris da ramdenad aris igi dakavSirebuli xangrZliv brZolasTan, romelic birTvi saxelmwifos statusisaTvis mimdinareobs. garda amisa, postbipolarul saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi axlo aRmosavleTi wamyvani saxelmwifoebis mometebuli interesebis zonis statuss inarCunebs. regionSi mimdinare rigi samxedro-politikuri procesebi gvafiqrebinebs, rom aqtiuri riskis statusi mTavar geopolitikur aqtorebs aq permanentuli arsebobis Sanss unarCunebs.
