,,ქვეყნის ეკონომიკა მაინც დაზარალდებოდა გლობალურ ეკონომიკაში დაწყებული პრობლემების გამო”
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msoflioSi axali koronavirusi sul ufro farTo masStabebs iZens. ra safrTxeebs uqmnis covid-19-is pandemia qveynebis ekonomikas, rogor SeiZleba ganviTardes am mxriv movlenebi da ra prognozebs akeTeben eqspertebi – Temaze baTumis SoTa rusTavelis saxelmwifo universitetis asocirebul profesors, politolog irakli gorgilaZes vesaubreT
– batono irakli, bunebrivia, ekonomikuri prognozebis gakeTeba dRevandel mocemulobaSi rTulia, Tumca ras unda elodos msoflio, rogor SeiZleba ganviTardes movlenebi?
– amerikuli gamocema Bloomberg-is mier momzadebul specialur angariSSi movlenaTa ganviTarebis oTxi scenari ganixileba. sabaziso – yvelaze pozitiuri scenaris mixedviT, CineTi SeZlebs daavadebis afeTqebis kontrols (asec moxda) da miRebuli ekonomikuri zianis wlis meore naxevarSi aRmofxvras. am SemTxvevaSi, uaryofiTi gavlena globalur ekonomikaze SedarebiT umniSvnelo iqneba. meore scenari movlenaTa iseT ganviTarebazea gaTvlili, romelSic qveynebi, daavadebulTa raodenobis gaTvaliswinebiT, swrafad ver gaumklavdebian gamowvevas. saubaria didi ekonomikebis mqone qveynebze, sadac axali koronavirusiT daavadebulTa ricxvi sagrZnoblad maRalia: iaponia, italia, germania. am SemTxvevaSi, koronavirusi uSualod am qveynebis ekonomikur zrdaze aisaxeba uaryofiTad, aseve, globaluri ekonomikuri zrdis prognozi 3,1 procentidan 2,3 procentamde Semcirdeba.
mesame scenaris mixedviT, didi ekonomikis mqone qveynebSi daavadeba masStaburad gavrceldeba. saubaria aSS-ze, indoeTze, gaerTianebul samefoze, braziliaze, kanadaze, germaniaze – am SemTxvevaSi dartymis qveS aRmoCndeba msoflios 10 yvelaze didi ekonomika. movlenaTa am gziT ganviTarebisas, globaluri zrdis prognozi 1,2 procentamde mcirdeba. am scenaris mixedviT, evrozonis qveynebi da iaponia ekonomikur recesiaSi aRmoCndebian, xolo aSS-is ekonomikuri zrda 0,5 procentamde Semcirdeba.
movlenaTa ganviTarebis meoTxe scenari yvelaze pesimisturia da virusis farTo masStabiT gavrcelebas gulisxmobs. globaluri pandemiis SemTxvevaSi, varaudoben, rom msoflio ekonomika 2,7 trilion dolars dakargavs, globaluri ekonomikuri zrda ki 0 procents gautoldeba.
aris, aseve, sxva, ekonomikuri TanamSromlobisa da ganviTarebis organizaciis ori scenari: lokalizebuli afeTqeba da swrafi gavrceleba wynari okeanis, aziis, evropisa da CrdiloeT amerikis qveynebSi – molodinebi aqac arcTu ise saxarbieloa. aRniSnuli scenariT, koronavirusiT gamowveuli Sokebi 2021 wlis ganmavlobaSi moixsneba. Tavdapirvelad uaryofiTi ekonomikuri efeqti CineTSi iqneba koncentrirebuli, Tumca TandaTanobiT aziis sxva qveynebSi, evropasa da CrdiloeT amerikaSi gavrceldeba. gavleniani sareitingo saagento ekonomikaze vuhanis koronavirusis Sedegebs prognozirebs, magram zust Sedegebze ar saubrobs da yvelafers epidemiis masStabs ukavSirebs. yvelaze metad mogzaurobasTan da turizmTan dakavSirebuli kompaniebi dazaraldebian. marTalia, did kompaniebs aqvT damatebiTi buferebi kritikuli situaciis samarTavad, magram isinic uZlurni iqnebian, Tuki virusi gaurkveveli vadiT gaxangrZlivdeba. gansakuTrebuli riskis winaSea tailandi, vietnami da singapuri. am qveynebis Semosavlis mniSvnelovani nawili swored turizmze modis.
ekonomikuri zaralis TvalsazrisiT, aseve, risk-jgufebs miekuTvneba globaluri aviaxazebi, garTobisa da dasvenebis seqtori, anu is sferoebi, romlebzec momxmarebelTa qceva pirdapir axdens gavlenas.
– msoflioSi mimdinare ekonomikuri cvlilebebi, zogadad, rogor aisaxeba saqarTveloze?
– rac Seexeba Cvens qveyanas, patara, Ria ekonomika aqvs da mniSvnelovnad aris damokidebuli sxva, pirvel rigSi, mezobeli qveynebis, aseve evrokavSiris da CineTis ekonomikur mdgomareobaze. amitom, im SemTxvevaSic ki, Tuki saqarTveloSi koronavirusi ar gamovlindeboda, qveynis ekonomika mainc dazaraldeboda globalur ekonomikaSi dawyebuli problemebis gamo. samwuxarod, eqspertTa Sefasebebi koronavirusis uaryofiTi efeqtis Sesaxeb damaimedebeli ar aris – optimisturi gaTvlebiT, negatiuri gavlena ekonomikaze did xans SenarCundeba, xolo pesimisturi midgomiT, farTomasStabian ekonomikur kriziss gamoiwvevs.
– rac Seexeba politikas?
– rac Seexeba politikas, aq epidemiis Sedegebi naklebad prognozirebulia. arsebuli viTarebis gaTvaliswinebiT Tu vimsjelebT, bevr qveyanaSi, sadac epidemias jer ar miuRwevia, politikuri elitis momavali mainc damokidebuli iqneba imaze, Tu ramdenad mzad arian am gamowvevisTvis. dRes ukve asaxeleben globaluri cvlilebebis pirvel aspeqtebs, romlis mixedviT, yvelaze metad dazaraldebian Cinelebi da globalistebi, xolo isargebleben nacional-populistebi.
rogorc hopkinsis universitetis demokratiis eqsperti iaSe munqi aRniSnavs: miuxedavad imisa, rom opoziciur populistebs SeuZliaT virusis gavrceleba sakuTari miznebisTvis gamoiyenon, xelisuflebaSi myofi populistebisTvis is seriozul gamocdad iqceva.
dRes aRaravin davobs imaze, rom pandemia, romelic axal krizisebs warmoSobs, arsebiTad Secvlis globaluri qcevis protokols.
gvaxsovs, Tavidan amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis prezidenti acxadebda, rom viTareba koronavirusTan dakavSirebiT kontrols eqvemdebareboda da mouwodebda amerikelebs, SeesyidaT fasiani qaRaldebi, Tumca movlenebma aCvena, rom TeTri saxlis optimizmi arc mTlad realuri iyo. trampis gankargulebam – evrokavSiris qveynebTan frenebis Sewyvetis Sesaxeb, briuselis kritika gamoiwvia, miT ufro, roca gadawyvetileba yovelgvari winaswari gafrTxilebis gareSe miiRo, ramac am or subieqts Soris arsebul arasaxarbielo viTarebas kidev erTxel gausva xazi. amasTan, prezidentis brZaneba imTaviTve ar Sexebia did britaneTs. cxadia, rom daavadebulTa ricxvis zrda donald trampisTvis mniSvnelovan gamowvevad iqca. procesebi amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi winasaarCevno periods daemTxva. amitom SesaZlebelia, mouqneli gadawyvetilebebi savarZlis fasad daujdes prezidents, miT ufro, roca `demokratebma~ moaxerxes da koronavirusTan brZolis iniciativa xelSi Caigdes. trampis oponentma jo baidenma qveynis krizisidan gamosvlis gegma waradgina, xolo `demokratebma~ warmomadgenlobiT palataSi daavadebulTa daxmarebis specialuri paqti miiRes. aseve, sagulisxmoa, rom xelmisawvdomi medicinis Sesaxeb senator berni sandersis iniciativebma amomrCevelze SesaZloa miznobrivad imuSaos, Tumca am etapze orive iZulebulia, uari Tqvas mitingebze, sadac SesaZlebeli iqneboda xalxTan saubari.
– evropaSi rogor ganviTardeba politikuri procesebi?
– evropaSi, virusis gavrcelebis umsxviles kerad italia iqca. romis gadawyvetilebam qveynis Caketvis da sayovelTao karantinis gamocxadebis, Sesabamisad ki 60-milioniani mosaxleobis izolaciis Sesaxeb, mezobel qveynebSi myisieri reaqcia gamoiwvia. avstriam, sloveniam, ungreTma da Sveicariam gaamkacres kontroli italiis sazRvrebTan, SezRudes frenebi da sarkinigzo mimosvla. virusma, faqtobrivad, Tavisufali gadaadgilebis evrozona SeamWidrova, sazRvrebi evrokavSiris sivrceSic Caiketa, ramac gaaaqtiura strategia – `yvela TavisTvis~ da cxadyo, rom erTiani frontis Seqmna arcTu ise martivia. viTarebas arTulebs axali migraciuli krizisic, rac erTdroulad evrokavSiris gare sazRvrebTan iqmneba.
bolo periodamde yvelaze didi gavrceleba, ZiriTadad, uzrunvelyofil da SedarebiT stabilur qveynebze – CineTze, iranze, iaponiaze, italiasa da samxreT koreaze modis. TiToeul maTgans gaaCnia organizebuli centraluri xelisufleba – ganviTarebuli mediciniT, magram iseT qveynebSi, sadac ganviTarebadi an ganuviTarebeli sistemebia, virusis ara Tu Sekaveba, identificirebac garTuldeba – es exeba zogierT afrikul qveyanas, agreTve, omSi gaxveul sirias, libansa da iemens, rac damatebiT, maT Soris, migraciuli xasiaTis problemebs gaaCens. ukontrolo migraciam am ramdenime xnis win gvaCvena, Tu ramdenad myife SeiZleba gaxdes msoflio.
dabolos, ramdenime dRis win koronavirusi oficialurad globalur krizisad aRiares. eqspertebi imedovneben, rom daTbobasTan erTad virusis gavrcelebac moiklebs, vaqcinis Seqmnamde ki covid-19-is sawinaaRmdego antivirusuli preparati gamoCndeba. imeds vitoveb, rom axali koronavirusi mniSvnelovan cvlilebebs kacobriobisTvis ar gamoiwvevs, Tumca epidemiis politikuri Sedegebi, rogorc Cans, mxolod iwyeba.
