,,ფაქტია, რომ ბრენდად იქცა საქართველოს მაგალითი კოვიდ-19-თან ბრძოლაში”
òîèï úåúõäïûå 27 48 93 –
kovid-19-is pandemiiT gamowveuli krizisiT qveynis ekonomikasa da adamianebis keTildReobaze miyenebuli ziani jer kidev araprognozirebadi da mzardia. pandemiis mimarT saqarTvelos ekonomikis maRali mowyvladoba sxvadasxva faqtoriTaa ganpirobebuli. upirveles yovlisa, es dakavSirebulia mTliani Sida produqtis struqturasTan, sadac dargobrivad yvelaze didi wili iseT ekonomikur saqmianobebze modis, romlebic yvelaze metad daziandnen koronavirusis pirobebSi. esenia sabiTumo da sacalo vaWroba (13.9 %), uZrav qonebasTan dakavSirebuli saqmianobebi (11.4 %), mSeneblobis seqtori (8.3%) da safinanso-sadazRvevo saqmianoba (6.1%). amasTan, turistuli seqtoris gaCerebam, romelic wlebia ekonomikuri ganviTarebis qvakuTxedad moiazreba, mniSvnelovani dartyma miayena rogorc SromiT bazars, aseve laris kursis stabilurobas. turizmidan Semosuli finansuri kapitali, ucxoeTidan Semosul fulad gzavnilebTan da pirdapir ucxour investiciebTan erTad, laris kursis gamyarebis mniSvnelovan winapirobas qmnida. kidev erTi garemoeba, ramac koronavirusis pirobebSi maRali ekonomikuri destabilizacia ganapiroba, dakavSirebulia Sromis bazris struqturasTan, sadac daqiravebiT dasaqmebulTa raodenoba araformalur seqtorSi TviTdasaqmebulTa raodenobas utoldeba. Tavad daqiravebiT dasaqmebulTa Soris maRalia e.w. prekarialur da arastabilur samsaxurebSi dasaqmebulTa wili, rogoricaa momsaxurebis sfero, atipuri dasaqmebebi, sezonuri dasaqmeba Tu sxva. am pirobebSi gasakviri ar aris, rom umuSevrobis radikaluri zrdaa navaraudevi, sadac daqiravebiT dasaqmebulTa saerTo raodenobis 30% samsaxuris dakargvis maRali riskis winaSea, xolo TviTdasaqmebulTa 83,5%-s mouwevs Semosavlebis vardnasTan da Semcirebul ekonomikur SesaZleblobebTan gamklaveba.
am da sxva sakiTxebze gTavazobT intervius ekonomist paata aroSiZesTan.
– ra ziani miayena saqarTvelos ekonomikas kovid-19-ma?
– kovid-19 msoflios daemarTa maSin, rodesac mzad aravin iyo. anu winaswar veravin gaiTvaliswinebda im riskebs, romelic Tan axlavs msoflio pandemias. amitom, ekonomika, rogorc samecniero dargi, didi gamocdis winaSe aRmoCnda. Tavad ekonomistma vladimer papavam Tqva: `ekonomika medicinis mZevalia~, xolo cnobilma Cinelma ekonomistma koronomika daarqva mimdinare process. diax, sxvadasxva qveynebSi ekonomika sxvadasxvanairad muSaobs, anu ise, rogorc umklavdebian viruss iqauri medicinis muSakebi.
– msoflio bevri krizisis momswrea, xom aris SemuSavebuli sxvadasxva meTodi da midgoma?
– diax, marTlac araerTi ekonomikuri krizisis momswre gamxdara kacobrioba, Tundac bolo saukuneSi, magram krizisi, romlis arc dasawyisis prognozireba SeiZleboda da arc dasasrulis, aqamde ar yofila.
– ra aris gamosavali?
– erTaderTi gamosavali, romelic Cans am etapze, esaa Tavad krizisTan Segueba da virusTan Tanacxovrebis wesebis dacva. am sqemas ukve iyeneben saxelmwifoebi.
– rogoria axali koronavirusis gavlena msoflio ekonomikaze?
– raRac etapze (marti, aprili, maisi) msoflio saerTod gaCerda da jerac ver aRadgina iseTi seriozuli dargebi, rogoricaa: turizmi, sahaero mimosvla, mgzavrTa sxva saxis transportiT gadayvana da sxv. cxadia, saqarTvelom, romlis ekonomikisTvisac turizmi sasicocxlod mniSvnelovani iyo, seriozuli dartyma miiRo. Cven viyaviT damokidebuli ucxoel turistebze, romelTac ucxouri valuta SemohqondaT. gaxsovT albaT, rodesac mTavrobam antikrizisuli gegma ga-moaqveyna, pirveli rac mas mohyva, turizmis amuSavebis mcdeloba iyo. mec veswrebodi Sexvedrebs ekonomistTa maRal eSelonebSi, sadac ekonomikis ministrma ganacxada, rom pirvel rigSi, gaformdeba xelSekruleba israelTan turistebis saqarTveloSi Camoyvanis kuTxiT.
– am Temas xSirad atrialebdnen da molodinic didi iyo.
– ki, magram ukve ivlisSi israelma Tavad daketa Tavisi sazRvrebi pandemiis morigi Semotevis gamo. amitom turizmma didi zarali ganicada. marTalia, Sida turizmma Caanacvla bazarze ucxoelebi, magram ekonomikisaTvis mniSvneloba naklebad aqvs, kaxeli qobuleTSi daisvenebs Tu walenjixeli – wyneTSi. Sida turizmma suli moaTqmevina kerZo seqtors, romlis warmomadgenlebs an saojaxo sastumroebi aqvT an binebs aqiraveben damsveneblebze, saerTaSoriso turizmi ki aris yvelaze mniSvnelovani danakargi rogorc saqarTvelosTvis, ise msofliosTvis.
– mxolod turizmma izarala?
– sagareo vaWrobamac. Semcirda eqsporti, Tumca krizisma garkveuli axali SesaZleblobebic gamoavlina. maT Sorisaa soflis ganviTarebis ufro mZlavri kursis dasaxva. antikrizisul gegmaSi yvelaze didi yuradReba mas eqceva. aWaris mTavrobam mTlianad daafinansa xvna-Tesvis programa. iseTi adgilebic ki damuSavda, romelic manamde gaveranebuli iyo. anu soflis meurneobis mxolod deklarirebulad ki ara, realurad amuSavda. aqve gamoikveTa, rom Cven saeqsporto potenciali sxva mimarTulebiTac gagvaCnia da saerTod, msofliom dainaxa, rom qarTuli medicina aris maRal doneze. ra Tqma unda, axla aravin elodeba, rom ekonomika warmoudgenlad gaizrdeba an Tundac winandel zRvars uceb daubrundeba, magram SesaZlebelia, rom TandaTanobiT, realurad gakeTdes esec.
– rac Seexeba socialur problemebs?
– es unda ganvixiloT, rogorc problemis meore mxare. turizmis sferos daketvaze rom visaubreT, es TavisTavad moiazrebs kafe-barebsa da restornebs, gasarTob centrebs da sxva mimdev sferoebs. yvelaferi es gulisxmobs samuSao adgilebis dakargvas, aTasobiT Cveni moqalaqis da maTi ojaxebis usaxsrod darCenas.
– am fonze ramdenad sworad migaCniaT qveynis ekonomikis qvakuTxedad mxolod turizmis gamocxadeba?
– ra Tqma unda, mniSvnelovani sakiT-xia ra iqneba qveynis ekonomikis wamyvani dargi. zogadad, momsaxurebis sferoze qveynis damokidebuleba riskis Semcvelia. arc erT saxelmwifoSi turizms ar gaaCnia finansebis Semodinebis wamyvani funqcia. igi unda iyos danamati, damatebiTi Semosavlebis Semomtani. principSi, SeiZleba turizms daakisro wamyvani funqcia, magram mxolod im SemTxvevaSi, Tu paralelurad, warmatebuli soflis meurneoba geqneba. elementarulad, warmoidgineT, kargadaa ganviTarebuli saerTaSoriso turizmi, Camodis ucxoeli stumari da ismis kiTxva: sad midis mis mier aq daxarjuli Tanxa? midis sastumros ucxoel mflobelTan, importirebul produqciaSi: xili, xorci, bostneuli, sasmelebi da a.S. gadaadgildeba avtomobiliT, romelSic ucxouri sawvavia Casxmuli. maSin, rodesac Cveni soflis meurneoba dabal donezea ganviTarebuli, Cveni turizmiT vastimulirebT sxva qveyanas. amitom turizmi yvelgan aris damxmare dargi. ganviTarebul saxelmwifoebSi ganviTarebulia iseTi dargebi, romelic qmnis materialur dovlaTs, SemdgomSi adgilobriv mosaxleobasac rom moxmardeba da turizmsac.
– CvenTan ratom ar viTardeba sxva dargebi? axlac isev saerTaSoriso turizmze akeTeben aqcents.
– imitom, rom am 6 TveSi ver moxerxdeba axali dargis swrafad ganviTareba. isev imas aqceven yuradRebas, rac ukve aprobirebuli da amuSavebulia. kargad iciT, ramdeni adamiani darCa umuSevari kovidSezRudvebis periodSi. is 1200-lariani daxmareba 6 Tvis ganmavlobaSi da samas lariani – erTjeradad, ver Seqmnis aminds. pandemiam marTlac bevri nakli gamoavlina da pirvel rigSi is, rom wamyvan dargad unda iqces soflis meurneoba. Cven odiTganve agraruli qveyana viyaviT da genetikurad SemogvrCa am mimarTulebiT codna da unar-Cvevebi.
– koronavirusiT gamowveuli pandemiis mimarT saqarTvelos ekonomikis maRali mowyvladoba kidev romeli faqtorebiTaa gamowveuli?
– kidev aris tranzituli mimarTulebebi da geo-politikuri mdebareobis sustad gamoyeneba. aucilebelia, kidev ufro metad CarTva msoflio biznesis arealSi. magram amJamad urTules mdgomareobaSi aRmovCndiT, Cveni orive mezobeli saomar moqmedebebs awarmoebs, rac ara mxolod saqarTvelos, mTeli kavkasiis ekonomikas uqmnis seriozul problemas. amas emateba sxva mezoblebTan pandemiis meore, mesame Tu meaTe talRis dasawyisi an dasasruli, eg aravin icis, rac pirdapir kavSirSia Cvens finansur SemodinebebTan. amitom, ekonomikurad win wamowevas arc unda velodebodeT. me vsaubrob realur mdgomareobaze. arc imis iluzia unda gvqondes, rom 6-7 TveSi yvelaferi kargad iqneba. mTavaria, yuradRebiT movekidoT arsebul viTarebas da maqsimalurad davicvaT virusis sawinaaRmdegod medikosebis mier SemoTavazebuli SezRudvebi.
– batono paata, Tu SeiZleba mkiTxvels avuxsnaT, ras niSnavs ekonomikis stimulireba da ra roli eniWeba mas koronavirusTan gamklavebaSi?
– stimulireba sxvadasxva mxridan xdeba. Tuki visaubrebT saxelmwifos mxareze, am kuTxiT xorcieldeba turizmis da soflis meurneobis sferoTa sxvadasxva dargis da iq moqmedi biznesebis daxmareba. amJamad xorcieldeba rogorc Tavad dargebis, ise biznesis stimulireba. turistuli kompaniebisTvis dawesda SeRavaTebi qonebis Tu mogebis gadasaxadebze. kompaniebisTvis dawesda SeRavaTi saSemosavloze. plus amas, agrarul seqtorSi moqmed biznesebsac exmarebian sxvadasxva SeRavaTiT, gaizarda startapebis dafinanseba da a.S. ver vityviT, rom biznesi sul saxelmwifos daxmarebis imedad unda darCes, magram imisaTvis, rom gadavagoroT pandemia, es mniSvnelovania.
– rogor SeafasebdiT erovnuli bankis politikas am krizisis dros?
– erovnuli bankis politikas vafasebT laris da ucxouri valutis urTierTadmokidebulebiT, magram meore mxarec arsebobs – bankebis mier gadavadebuli procenti da sesxebi, saboloo jamSi, eqvsi TviT. Tumca isic faqtia, rom laris kursi valutasTan SedarebiT dRiTi dRe iSleba da savalalo mdgomareobaSia. Tu am erTi veqtoriT ganvixilavT, gamodis, rom erovnulma bankma fexi ver auwyo amJamad ganxorcielebul politikas… Tumca, kursi pandemiamdec meryevi iyo da Semdegac meryevi iqneba. es realurad abrkolebs ekonomikis ganviTarebas.
– rogor gardaiqmneba SromiTi bazari koronavirusis Sedegad, moxdeba Tu ara cvlileba am kuTxiT?
– yvelam dainaxa, romeli samuSao adgilebi SenarCunda da romeli – daikarga. axla me ar vsaubrob saxelmwifo seqtorze. SromiT bazarze kargad gamoikveTa erTi ram – distanciuri da onlainmuSaobis aucilebloba. aqve isicaa gasaTvaliswinebeli, rom distanciurad muSaobisTvis kompanias ar sWirdeba gaberili Statebi. aman, SesaZloa, kidev erTi problema dagvimatos da Semcirdes dasaqmebulTa raodenoba. es obieqturi relobaa. damsaqmebels Tu SeuZlia mavans saqme onlain gaakeTebinos, ratom unda moiyvanos ofisSi TanamSromeli? SeiZleba iTqvas, rom postpandemiis periodSi, romelic aravin icis rodis dadgeba, mkveTri cvlilebebi gveqneba Sromis bazris da gamocxadebuli vakansiebis kuTxiT. aqcenti gadava ufro zust, teqnikur specialobebze, romlebzec moTxovnilebebi pandemiis, krizisis dros gamovlinda. isic ar dagaviwydeT, rom SeuCerda saqmianoba gasarTob centrebs, restornebs, sastumroebis personals, maRaziebis (sursaTis garda) konsultantebs da a.S. es yvelaferi, saboloo jamSi, aisaxeba SromiT bazarze da profesiaTa arCevanze.
– kerZo saganmanaTleblo seqtoric gaCerebulia, skolebi, bavSvTa baRebi, saxelovnebo klasebi. . . saxelmwifo uwyebebisgan gansxvavebiT, aq dasaqmebuli arc pedagogebi da arc bavSvebi ar iReben daxmarebebs.
– diax, marTlac bevri seqtori darCa anazRaurebis gareSe. biznesis bevr iseT uwyebas gauWirda, romelsac veravin verasodes warmoidgenda.
– sainteresoa isic, rom sastumroebis mepatroneebi, damsveneblTa klebis miuxedavad, ar aiafeben arc nomrebs da arc servisebs. risi imedi aqvT?
– bevrma msxvilma sastumrom gaaiafa nomrebi. vlaparakob iseTebze, romelTa fasi 75 aSS dolaridan iwyeba. zogierTi tovebs fass, magram ufasod kvebas amatebs. yvela biznesmeni Tavad wyvets, rogor gaswios konkurencia turistis deficitis pirobebSi. amas veravin ukarnaxebs sabazro ekonomikis dros. CvenTan, socialuri fonis gaTvaliswinebiT, konkurencias warmoqmnis fasi. romelic iafia, damsvenebli iq midis. amiT unda gansazRvros turistul seqtorSi dasaqmebulma, ra urCevnia – saerTod ver amuSaos sastumro an restorani, Tu raRac mogebaze mainc gavides. Tanac, isic unda gaiTvaliswinos, rom saerTaSoriso turizmis amoZraveba wels naklebad mosalodnelia.
– premierma isic ganacxada, rom Cveni qveynisTvis SesaZloa dadebiTadac Semotrialdes msoflio pandemia. `mwvane derefnis~ garda ras gulisxmobda?
– rodesac evropulma saxelmwifoebma CineTi datoves, saqarTvelom SesTavaza maT saqarTvelos teritoria msxvili sawarmoebis gansaTavseblad. rogorc ekonomikis ministrma ganacxada, 400-mde kompaniasTan mimdinareobs molaparakeba. jer ucnobia, ramdeni daTanxmdeba, rom sakuTari sawarmo gadmoitanos Cvens qveyanaSi. meore mxarea – politikuri aRiareba. es Cveni samedicino kohortis da xelisuflebis erTdrouli miRwevaa. msofliom Zalian kargad daafiqsira, rom mowinave qveynebze ukeT gavumklavdiT kovidsituacias. SesaZloa, dRes `mwvane derefani~ ver avamuSaoT, magram momavalSi mogvitans dividendebs. Tundac, potenciuri investori aq moindomebs fulis Cadebas imitom, rom simciris da siRaribis miuxedavad, swored am qveyanam SeZlo mciredi danakargebiT, warmatebiT daeRwia Tavi msoflio pandemiisgan. faqtia, rom brendad iqca saqarTvelos magaliTi kovid-19-Tan brZolaSi.
