სამხრეთ კავკასია – ზესახელმწიფოთა დაპირისპირების ახალი ასპექტები
äïøï õëèåîòêò 593 50 82 69 –
kavkasia yovelTvis iyo imperiaTa gansakuTrebuli interesis sagani da, aqedan gamomdinare, zesaxelmwifoTa Sejaxebis arealic
ra mdgomareobaa amJamad, anu ra miznebi amoZravebT dainteresebul saxelmwifoebs, ra Secvala yarabaRis omma da ras moicavs eqvseulis formati, romelic ruseTis mieraa inicirebuli? am sakiTxebze diskusia ar wydeba analitikosTa mxridan da saqarTvelos xelisuflebas dasavleTTan kidev ufro daaxloebas urCeven, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, saqarTvelo kvlav ruseTis gavlenis sferoSi aRmoCndeba.
samxreT kavkasiaSi procesebi sainteresod da dramatulad viTardeba – ruseTma, yarabaRis omis Semdeg ganimtkica poziciebi azerbaijansa da somxeTSi, misi jari ukve azerbaijanis yarabaRSic ganTavsda, somxeTSi (giumriSi) isedac dgas rusuli samxedro baza. garda amisa, yarabaRis omis Semdeg kremlma somxeTi mTlianad damokidebuli gaxada masze, aseve, azerbaijanis gulic moigo – ar Caeria yarabaRis omSi da amiT, faqtobrivad, uzrunvelyo baqos gamarjveba am omSi. arada, ruseTi rom realurad Careuliyo, maSin somxeTi, garkveulwilad, SeinarCunebda mTiani yarabaRis teritoriis mniSvnelovan nawils. miuxedavad imisa, rom somxurma mosaxleobam sakuTari TvaliT dainaxa ruseTis muxanaToba, garkveul mizezTa gamo, somxuri politikuri elita antimoskovuri gancxadebebisgan jerjerobiT Tavs ikavebs. Tumca mosaxleobaSi aSkarad igrZnoba ruseTisadmi ukmayofileba. ismis kiTxva – ratom ar Caeria ruseTi yarabaRis omSi aqtiurad an farulad somxeTis sasargeblod? analitikosebi ramdenime mizezs asaxeleben: pirveli _ kremli ukmayofiloa somxeTis arsebuli mTavrobis saqmianobiT, kerZod, faSinianis politikiT, romelic xelisuflebaSi revoluciis gziT movida da qveyanaSi garkveuli reformebis ganxorcieleba daiwyo. man promoskovuri biznesmenebi alagma, ramac ruseTi gaaRiziana. garda amisa, faSinianma dasavleTTanac gaaba urTierToba. . . sxvaTa Soris, moskovisa da erevnis faruli urTierTdapirispireba erTi wlis ganmavlobaSi mimdinareobda, rusul televiziebSi faSinians akritikebdnen, sorosis agentad moixseniebdnen. aseTi ram kremlis nebarTvis gareSe ar xdeba. azerbaijani ki samxedro TvalsazrisiTac Zlierdeboda da zurgs TurqeTic umagrebda. Sesaferisi dro rom dadga (gasuli wlis seqtemberSi), azerbaijanma ruseTis faruli mxardaWeriT, yarabaRSi omi wamoiwyo da am teritoriis 80 procenti gaaTavisufla, raSic cxadia, axali samxedro teqnologiebis gamoyenebamac (sahaero dronebi) Seuwyo xeli.
cxadia, yarabaRis omSi damarcxebam faSinianis xelisuflebas problemebi Seuqmna qveyanaSi. mosaxleoba mis gadadgomas da axali arCevnebis Catarebas iTxovs. ramdenimeTvianma protestma Sedegi gamoiRo. faSiniani daTanxmda riggareSe arCevnebis Catarebaze (romelic 20 ivniss gaimarTeba) da isic dasZina, rom aprilSi Tanamdebobas datovebs, raTa eri ar gaixliCos da arCevnebma gadawyvitos eris arCevani, Tumca gadadgomisTanave premier-ministris posts daikavebs. am mxriv, dasavleli analitikosebi fiqroben, rom moskovi eswrafvis somxeTis xelisuflebaSi promoskovuri mTavroba iyos da sruliad masze iyos damokidebuli. realurad ra da rogor iqneba, amas dro dagvanaxebs.
vidre dasavleTi, ase vTqvaT, pasiurobs samxreT kavkasiasTan mimarTebiT, ruseTi dros ar kargavs. kremls samxreT kavkasiaSi sruli kontrolisTvis da am regionidan dasavleTis amosagdebad saqarTvelos sakuTar orbitaze dabruneba esaWiroeba. garkveulwilad amis gamo SemuSavda eqvseulis formati, romelic kavkasiis erTobis imitacias qmnis – masSi undaT ruseTis, TurqeTis, iranis da sami samxreT kavkasiuri qveynis gaerTianeba. realurad, rogorc analitikosebi acxadeben, es formati antidasavluri da arasicocxlisunariani iqneba mravali mizezis gamo. jer erTi, somxeTma da azerbaijanma am ramdenime xnis winaT omi gadaitanes da erTmaneTis mimarT negatiurad arian ganwyobilni, ruseTs saqarTvelos teritoriebi aqvs okupirebuli, amave dros, arc irani, arc TurqeTi da miT umetes, arc ruseTi ar emorCilebian saerTaSoriso samarTlis normebs, rom aRaraferi vTqvaT demokratiis xarisxze. realurad es kavSiri gulisxmobs am regionidan dasavleTis gandevnas da saqarTvelodan dasavluri fanjris Caketvas. amitomac Tqva politikosma da istorikosma gubaz sanikiZem, rom es e.w. eqvseulis formati axali amasiis zavi iqneba saqarTvelosTvis.
aSkarad vxedavT, rom samxreT kavkasia kvlav zesaxelmwifoTa Sejaxebis areali xdeba, sadac dominantis rols ruseTi inarCunebs. amas, eqspertTa TqmiT, ZiriTadad, ori faqtoris wyalobiT axerxebs – yarabaRis, afxazeTis, cxinvalis regionebze kontrolisa da energomatareblebis saqarTvelosa da somxeTSi eqsportis saSualebiT. ruseTis interesebi samxreT kavkasiaSi mravalmxrivia, Tumca misTvis sasicocxlo ori sakiTxia: konfliqtur samxreT sazRvarze usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofisTvis buferuli sivrcis Seqmna da kaspia-Sua aziis energoresursebis satranzito arealis kontroli. am mimarTulebiT dasavleTis interesebi ki, ZiriTadad, gamoixateba kaspia-Sua aziis energoresursebze da mis tranzitze kontrolSi, rogorc rusuli energoresursebis alternativa da natos samxedro bazebis ganTavsebis SesaZlebloba. rac Seexeba regionalur liderebs – TurqeTsa da irans, analitikosTa TqmiT, TurqeTis interesi kavkasiaSi ramdenime aspeqts moicavs, romelSic kaspia – Sua aziis energoresursebis saqarTvelo-azerbaijanis gavliT Tavis teritoriaze miReba-moxmareba da evropaSi tranziti aseve, TurqeTs ainteresebs samxreT kavkasiis bazarze dominantis poziciis SenarCuneba. iranis interesi ki didwilad savaWro-ekonomikur urTierTobebs ukavSirdeba da cdilobs, rom saqarTvelos gavliT evropas (zRvis meSveobiT) daukavSirdes, rac didad arc TurqeTis da arc ruseTis interesebSi ar Sedis. am mimarTebiT, yarabaRis omma TvalnaTliv dagvanaxa, rom ruseTi arasaimedo mokavSirea, Tanac man ara marto gawira somxeTi, aramed cdilobs faSinianis da misi partiis mocilebas politikidan da xelisuflebaSi moskovze damokidebuli politikosis moyvanas, faqtobrivad, somxeTis sazogadoeba or nawilad dayo – ruseTis momxreebad da mowinaaRmdegeebad, rac mis interesebSia da rac kremls lavirebis saSualebas aZlevs, anu eweva propagandas, TiTqos uruseTod somxeTi daiRupeba da dasavleTisTvis uinteresoa regionSi mimdinare procesebi. amas emateba isic, rom azerbaijani isedac ar iltvoda evropisken da, miT ufro, ruseTma faruli mxardaWeriT (yarabaRis omSi azerbaijanisadmi) misi guli moigo. auRebel cixed rCeba saqarTvelo da Tu am mimarTebiTac dasavleTi pasiuri iqneba, maSin samxreT kavkasiaze kremli upirobo kontrols daamyarebs, rac dasavleTma arafrisdidebiT ar unda dauSvas. jerjerobiT saqarTvelo kvlavac rCeba dasavleTis erTaderT sayrden qveynad regionSi, rac am ukanasknelma saTanadod unda gaiaros da Cvens qveyanas qmediTi daxmareba gauwios, Tundac evroatlantikur struqturebSi integraciis sakiTxSi.
