აქვს თუ არა ოპოზიციას იმის რესურსი, რომ ხელისუფლება წნეხის ქვეშ მოაქციოს?
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adgilobriv arCevnebamde sami Tve darCa, qveyanaSi politikuri procesebi mravalmxriv sainteresod viTardeba
mniSvnelovani gadajgufebebia politikur speqtrSi: mmarTveli partia yofil premiers akritikebs da saakaSvilTan aliansSi adanaSaulebs, gaxaria ki xelisuflebis araadekvaturobaze saubrobs, `lelo saqarTvelosTvis~ liderma mamuka xazaraZem parlamentis axali boikoti ar gamoricxa, saakaSvilma Semodgomaze saqarTveloSi Camosvla daaanonsa, ceskos Tavmjdomare Tanamdebobidan gadadga, rac opoziciis TqmiT, maTi damsaxurebaa. . . cxadia, Semodgoma politikurad mniSvnelovnad daitvirTeba.
gadauWarbeblad SeiZleba iTqvas, rom adgilobriv arCevnebze didadaa damokidebuli amJamindeli mmarTveli gundis momavali, sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, Tu xelisufleba ver SeZlebs jamSi 43 procentis aRebas, 2022 wels riggareSe arCevnebi gaimarTeba, rac am arCevnebs istoriul mniSvnelobas aniWebs. amitom am mxriv fsoni Zalian maRalia – SesaZloa, mmarTvelma partiam meoTxejer moaxerxos arCevnebSi gamarjveba, amiT ganimtkicos Zalaufleba da moraluri upiratesoba moipovos opoziciaze, anda piriqiT, daiwyos daRmasvla, rac araerTxel momxdara qarTul politikaSi. ismis kiTxva – ra procesebi mimdinareobs qveyanaSi, ra taqtikas airCevs mmarTveli partia arCevnebSi gasamarjveblad, ra resursi aqvs opozicias xelisuflebaSi mosasvlelad?
mkafiod unda iTqvas, rom moaxloebuli adgilobrivi arCevnebi istoriuli mniSvnelobisaa ramdenime faqtoridan gamomdinare: jer erTi – damoukideblobis aRdgenidan (anu 1991 wlidan) meaTe adgilobrivi TviTmmarTvelobis arCevnebia, meore – garkveulwilad, referendumis datvirTvas iZens, anu Tu opozicia jamSi 58 procents aiRebs am arCevnebSi, rogorc vTqviT, momdevno wels saparlamento arCevnebi gaimarTeba da mesame – SesaZloa, mmarTvelma gundma zedized mesamejer SeZlos adgilobriv arCevnebSi gamarjveba, rac aqamde ar momxdara, amitom samkvdro-sasicocxlo brZolas unda velodoT. jerjerobiT, ori mTavari Zala (`qarTuli ocneba~ da `nacmoZraoba~) qmnis politikur aminds qveynaSi, magram ase iyo am dromde. axla situacia Seicvala, ganvlilma saparlamento arCevnebma cxadyo, rom arc mmarTveli partia da arc `nacmoZraoba~ ar sargebloben mosaxleobis absoluturi mxardaWeriT. mainc ra mdgomareobaa am mimarTebiT? ganvixiloT qarTuli politikis mTavari aqtorebi.
daviwyoT mmarTveli partiiT. `qarTuli ocneba~ xelisuflebaSi mecxre welia. am xnis ganmavlobaSi mmarTvelma gundma zedized SeZlo sami saparlamento, ori saprezidento da adgilobrivi arCevnebis mogeba, rac manamde verc erTma wina mmarTvelma (`mrgvali magida~, `moqkavSiri~, `nacmoZraoba~) gundma ver SeZlo, ra iqneba amjerad, anu SeZlebs mmarTveli partia arCevnebSi damajerebeli gamarjvebis mopovebas? es metwilad, damokidebuli iqneba rogorc xelisuflebis, ise opoziciis qmedebebze. mmarTveli gundis sasargeblod unda iTqvas, rom SeZlo politikuri krizisis daZleva, kerZod, opoziciis mxridan boikotis reJimi dasrulebulia, dasavleTis kritikamac iklo, amave dros, opoziciuri erToba daiSala, rasac daemata urTierTkritika maT Soris. es qarTuli politikisTvis araa ucxo, saerTod, politika xom moulodnelobebiTaa savse, aq mTavari interesebia, romlebic dauZinebel mowinaaRmdegeebsac ki aaxloebs miznebis misaRwevad. magaliTad, am ramdenime Tvis win dauZinebeli mtrebi (Salva naTelaSvili, giga bokeria, nino burjanaZe, gigi ugulava…) saerTo miznebze msjelobdnen da mosaxleobas erovnuli daumorCileblobisken mouwodebdnen, ar aris gamoricxuli, rom daSlili opoziciuri erToba saarCevnod kvlav aRdges, jerjerobiT ki daqsaqsulia, rac gamowveulia parlamentSi opoziciuri speqtris SesvliT. mxolod Salva naTelaSvili da elene xoStaria ar Sevidnen parlamentSi. es `ukanaskneli mohikanebi~ yofil Tanamoazreebs amunaTeben da parlamentis datovebisken mouwodeben, axseneben aRebul pirobas sakanonmdeblo organoSi arSesvlasTan dakavSirebiT, magram… qarTul politikaSi rodis iyo, rom sityvas fasi hqonda?! xan erTmaneTis mzes ficuloben, xanac samares uTxrian erTmaneTs, Cveni qveynis meoTxedi saukunis istoria amis naTeli magaliTia.
`strategia aRmaSenebli~ Tavis droze `nacmoZraobasTan~ aqtiurad TanamSromlobda, magram axla masTan alianss gamoricxavs da acxadebs, rom unda Seiqmnas Zlieri mesame Zala, romelic bolos mouRebs orpolusian garemos. `evropuli saqarTvelo~ praqtikulad daiSala. miuxedavad imisa, rom partia parlamentSi Sesvlis winaaRmdegi iyo, misgan wardgenilma (baqraZe, axvlediani, nakaiZe) kandidatebma parlamentSi Sesvla gadawyvites. `girCi~ gaiyo…
saqme mTlad kargad arc xelisuflebas aqvs. eqspertebi acxadeben, rom arasaxarbielo ekonomikuri mdgomareoba, qveyanaSi gamefebuli korufcia, arastabiluri politikuri garemo swored mmarTveli partiis sazianod metyvelebs.
garda amisa, `ocnebas~ gamoaklda gavleniani Tanagundeli giorgi gaxaria, romelmac axali partia Seqmna, udavoa, rom gaxaria mmarTveli partiis mxardamWerTa Soris sakmaod popularulia. yovel SemTxvevaSi, aseT Sexedulebas aviTareben eqspertebi. magaliTad, gia xuxaSvili acxadebs, rom gaxaria arCevnebSi xmebs mmarTvel partias waarTmevs, rac yvelaze kargad xelisuflebaSi ician. ivaniSvilis epistolaruli werili amis mkafio magaliTia. man gaxaria gaakritika. Tavis mxriv, yofili premieri ivaniSvilis mimarT aranair uaryofiT konteqstSi ar saubrobs, samagierod, mmarTveli partiis liderSifs akritikebs. eqspertTa azriT, gaxarias amgvari pozicia swori taqtikaa, amiT `ocnebis~ liderebs SfoTvis mizezs aZlevs. am mxriv saintereso azrs aviTarebs parlamentari gubaz sanikiZe: `mmarTveli partiis liderSifs hgonia, rom samomavlod SesaZloa ivaniSvilma fsoni kvlav gaxariaze gaakeTos, amitom Secdomas Secdomaze uSveben xelisuflebis warmomadgenlebi~. sxvaTa Soris, Secdomis naklebobas arc opozicia uCivis, Salva naTelaSvili maT urCevs, parlamenti datovon da kvlav gaaaqtiuron quCidan brZola. is xelisuflebasTan Seurigebel politikur Zalebs erovnuli frontis Seqmnas sTavazobs. Aamas winaT man tv `kavkasiaSi~ stumrobisas detalurad isaubra qveyanaSi mimdinare politikur movlenebze, zemoT Tqmulisken mouwoda opozicias. `Tu axla erTad ar aRvudgebiT win am reJims, es xelisufleba qarTveli xalxis sazianod didxans iboginebs~. kritikul SefasebaSi mas arc marad opozicioneri kaxa kukava CamorCeba: `arsebuli xelisufleba yofili xelisuflebis msgavs Secdomebs uSvebs da qveyana regresisken mihyavs. Tu ase gaagrZeleben, protesti quCaSi gadainacvlebs da situacia ukontrolo gaxdeba~. cxadia, oponentTa mosazrebebs ar iziareben xelisuflebis warmomadgenlebi. isini acxadeben, rom sworedac gamoirCevian demokratiulobiT da samarTlianobiT, rac, maTi TqmiT, ganvlilma arCevnebma cxadyo.
vidre mmarTveli partia da `nacmoZraoba~ ping-pongis reJimSi imyofebian, ar wydeba saubari mesame Zalaze. vin SeiZleba mogvevlinos aseT Zalad? am mxriv pretenzias acxadeben gaxarias mier Seqmnili partia `saqarTvelosTvis~, `strategia aRmaSenebli~, `lelo saqarTvelosTvis~ da sxva… mesame Zalis Teoria sakmaod popularulia saqarTveloSi da miTiuri ufroa, Teoriulad SeiZleba dasaSvebi iyos mesame Zalis Seqmna, magram praqtikulad, am realobaSi saqarTveloSi misi Camoyalibeba gamoricxulia, amas xels uSlis obieqturi da subieqturi mizezebi. arc xelisufleba da arc mTavari opoziciuri Zala (`nacmoZraoba~) ar arian dainteresebulni mesame Zalis CamoyalibebiT, radgan is maTi konkurenti iqneba. dRes saqarTveloSi mesame Zala rom Camoyalibdes, mas, pirvel rigSi, unda hqondes Zalian mkacri da myari partiuli struqtura, aseve sazogadoebis da Zlieri saerTaSoriso mxardaWera. am sami komponentis gareSe warmoudgenelia asparezze mesame Zalis gamoCena. xSirad kiTxuloben, aqvs opozicias imis resursi, rom xelisufleba wnexis qveS moaqcios? ra Tqma unda, opozicia flobs resursebs, oRond maTi gamoyenebisTvis aucilebelia gonivruli da Tanmimdevruli moqmedeba, Tanac es gaamarTlebs, Tu xelisufleba sabediswero Secdomas dauSvebs. arCevnebamde sami Tve darCa da `qarTul ocnebas~ aqvs manevrirebis saSualeba mxardamWerTa raodenobis gasazrdelad. Tu dRevandel realobas da mimdinare procesebs warsuls SevadarebT, davinaxavT, rom sazogadoebis damokidebuleba xelisuflebis mimarT arc ise kritikulia, rom opoziciurma partiam SeZlos saWiro resursis mobilizeba mokle droSi (opozicias Tavisi amomrCevli gaunawyenda misi araTanmimdevrulobis gamo).
rogorc vTqviT, sami Tve darCa arCevnebamde, am xnis ganmavlobaSi bevri ram SeiZleba moxdes, SesaZloa, opoziciuri partiebi gaerTiandnen, anda samkvdro-sasicocxlod daupirispirdnen erTmaneTs, arc isaa mTlad gamoricxuli, rom horizontze axali Zala gamoCndes da mmarTvel partiasa da `nacmoZraobas~ siurprizi moumzados, ase Tu ise, cxadia, rom saqarTvelo Zalian saintereso gzas gadis. es arCevnebi dagvanaxebs, ramdenad CamovyalibdiT samoqalaqo sazogadoebad, rogor gavacnobierebT Cvens rols qveynis aRmSeneblobaSi da ramdenad gvaqvs gaazrebuli Cveni vali momavali Taobebis winaSe.
