უსაფრთხოების დილემა
ნინო ცხვარაძე 595 96 63 65 –
Tanamedrove msoflio politikis imperiuli maqsima kvlav ucvleli rCeba: Zlieri akeTebs imas, rac surs, xolo susti sakuTari xvedriT itanjeba. ase iyo saukuneebis winaT da asea axlac. istoriul wiaRsvlebSi ar wavalT, mokled vityviT: okupirebuli afxazeTi, samaCablo, dnestrispireTi, aneqsirebuli yirimi, swored zemoTqmul `maqsimas~ cxadyofs
ras niSnavs usafrTxoebis dilema? ra mdgomareobaa am mxriv? urTierTdamokidebuleba zesaxelmwifoebs Soris ra procesebs warmoSobs da ratom imyofeba saqarTvelo myife usafrTxoebis garemoSi? am da sxva saintereso kiTxvebze baTumis SoTa rusTavelis saxelmwifo universitetis asocirebulma profesorma, politologma irakli gorgilaZem gvipasuxa.
– batono irakli, urTierTdamokidebulebis procesebi Slis Tu ara zRvars sagareo da saSinao politikas Soris?
– faqtia, rom Slis sazRvars sagareo da saSinao politikas, aseve saxelmwifosa da sazogadoebriv interesebs Soris, rac, garkveul etapze, usafrTxoebis sferoSi cvlilebebs iwvevs. termins yvelaze xSirad meore msoflio omis Semdeg amerikul politikaSi iyenebdnen, xolo 90-iani wlebis dasawyisSi, sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg, regionuli da adgilobrivi konfliqtebis zrdam da axali safrTxeebis gamoCenam is Cvens realobaSic gaxada aqtualuri. usafrTxoeba mWidrod aris dakavSirebuli erovnul interesebTan, radganac am ukanasknelis dacvis lozungiT saxelmwifoebs SeuZliaT sakuTari sazRvrebis gamagreba, mezoblebTan TanamSromlobis gaZliereba an piriqiT, omis warmoeba. usafrTxoebis gazrdis mcdelobiT saxelmwifoebi zrdian safrTxisa da sapasuxo samxedro dartymis risks. SeiZleba iTqvas, es aris mojadoebuli wre, romelsac usafrTxoebis dilemis definicias aZleven.
– politikis literaturaSi damkvidrda termini `Tukidides xafangi~. ras gulisxmobs da ramdenad aqtualuria is amJamad?
– zemoT naxsenebi maqsima usafrTxoebis dilemis logikis identuria – gulisxmobs mdgomareobas, rodesac erTi saxelmwifos mier usafrTxoebis zrda aiZulebs meores, ganaxorcielos analogiuri qmedebebi. usafrTxoebis dilemis mdgomareobis aRwerisas centraluri cneba aris ndoba. radganac anarqiul saerTaSoriso sistemaSi saxelmwifoebi TviTdaxmarebis reJimSi moqmedeben, sxva saxelmwifos ganzraxvebis mimarT yovelTvis skeptikuri damokidebuleba yalibdeba. SedarebiT Zlierma saxelmwifom SesaZlebelia nebismier dros moaxdinos sxva saxelmwifos sisustis eqspluatireba, Sesabamisad, saxelmwifosaTvis mTavari mizania, miaRwios iseT dones, rac mis gadarCenas uzrunvelyofs. Tukidides mier omis mizezebis aRweram politikur literaturaSi kidev erTi termini – `Tukidides xafangi~ daamkvidra. is asaxavs mdgomareobas, rodesac mzardi Zala ukve damkvidrebul ZalaSi warmoSobs SiSs, rac didi albaTobiT omis gamomwvevi mizezi xdeba.
– zemoT Tqmulidan gamomdinare, aSS-is mTavar konkurentad romeli saxelmwifo miiCneva?
– usafrTxoebis dilemaSi `Tukidides xafangis~ amoqmedebis safrTxe dRes amerikis SeerTebul Statebsa da CineTs Soris arsebobs. harvardis universitetis belferis centris yofili direqtori (sxvaTa Soris, swored man daamkvidra es termini) grem elisoni miCnevs, rom dRes umTavresi geostrategiuli gamowveva aris ara ruseTi an Zaladobrivi islamisturi eqstremizmi, aramed CineTis aRmasvla da misi gavlena amerikul saerTaSoriso wesrigze, romelmac 70 wlis ganmavlobaSi did Zalebs Soris uprecedento mSvidoba da keTildReoba uzrunvelyo. mocemul konteqstSi ruseTis faqtoris ugulebelyofa ganpirobebulia imiT, rom amerikis SeerTebuli Statebi ruseTs ar ganixilavs Zalad, romelsac Seswevs unari, warmoSvas Tukidideseuli SiSi amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi, TumcaRa, movlenebis ganviTarebis kvaldakval, rusuli safrTxis aRqma SesaZlebelia, Seicvalos.
– ra zomebs mimarTavs ruseTi aSS-is winaaRmdeg?
– mosalodneli balansis cvlis Tavidan acilebis mizniT, donald trampma, rodesac is amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis prezidenti iyo, qveynis erovnuli usafrTxoebis axali strategia waradgina, ra drosac xazi gausva im qveynebs, romlebic cdiloben globaluri status-kvos Secvlas. aq igulisxmeba ruseTi da CineTi. `miuxedavad imisa, rom sabWoTa komunizmi aRar arsebobs, Cvens nebas axali safrTxeebis saxiT elis gamocda. ruseTi mimarTavs diversiul zomebs amerikis evropisadmi valdebulebis saimedoobis Sesasusteblad. saqarTvelosa da ukrainaSi SeWriT ruseTma aCvena, rom mzad aris am regionis qveynebis suvereniteti daarRvios. ruseTi agrZelebs misi mezoblebis daSinebas safrTxis Semcveli qceviT, rogoricaa birTvuli iaraRiT muqara da TavdasxmiTi SesaZleblobebis win wamoweva~, – naTqvamia axali strategiis teqstSi.
– dabolos, saqarTvelosTan dakavSirebiT ra SeiZleba iTqvas dRevandeli saerTaSoriso situaciidan gamomdinare?
– saqarTvelo misi rTuli geopolitikuri situaciidan gamomdinare, sakmaod myife usafrTxoebis garemoSi imyofeba. qveynisaTvis umniSvnelovanesia mSvidobiani ganviTareba da stabiluroba. amgvari ganviTarebis pirobebis Seqmna ki imaze gacilebiT rTuli SeiZleba aRmoCndes, vidre erTi SexedviT Cans. mniSvnelovani sakiTxia qveynis sagareo politikuri veqtori da is SesaZlo zegavlena, romelic ama Tu im arCevanma saxelmwifos usafrTxoebis algoriTmze SeiZleba moaxdinos. erTi ram cxadia, usafrTxoebis konteqstSi sworad SerCeulma kursma da samomavlo TanamSromlobam SeiZleba saqarTvelos gauCinos perspeqtiva da sakmarisi Zalauflebis elementebi, rom daelodos misTvis momgebiani strategiuli garemos dadgomas, sadac qveyana SeZlebs Tavisi umTavresi saxelmwifoebrivi interesebis realizacias da teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgenas. es rom SesaZlebelia, kacobriobis istoriac kargad aCvenebs, sadac naTlad Cans, rom araferia ise mudmivi, rogorc cvalebadoba.
