,,ეკონომიკური კრიზისის პირობებში სახელმწიფომ უნდა გაითვალისწინოს თანასწორობის პრინციპი”
ხატია იაშვილი 591 98 24 26 –
koronavirusis pandemiis fonze saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis dinamika ecema. 2021 wlis ianvarSi saqonliT sagareo savaWro brunvam (aradeklarirebuli vaWrobis gareSe) 763,9 mln aSS dolari Seadgina, rac wina wlis Sesabamisi periodis maCvenebelze 16,3 procentiT naklebia. aqedan eqsporti 224,4 mln dolari iyo (16,2 procentiT naklebi), xolo importi – 539,4 mln dolari (16,4 procentiT naklebi). qveyanaSi Zalian garTulebulia socialuri foni, romelic mZafrdeba inflaciasTan dakavSirebiT. politikur da epidemiologiur kriziss ekonomikis ngreva mosdevs, romelic ukve umZimesi gamowvevis winaSe aRmoCnda.
am Temaze saubrobs ekonomikis doqtori rati abulaZe.
– batono rati, mokled mimovixiloT arsebuli statistikuri monacemebi da davakonkretoT, ratom iklo sagareo vaWrobam?
– SemiZlia giTxraT, ra informaciasac vflob am etapze, kerZod, koronavirusis afeTqebam ramxela ziani miayena qarTul ekonomikas. statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris (`saqstati~) gancxadebaSi asaxuli cifrebiT Tu vimsjelebT, 2021 wlis pirvel oTx TveSi sagareo savaWro brunva, SarSandel analogiur periodTan SedarebiT, 11,8%-iT Semcirda da 3,5 miliardi dolari Seadgina. eqsporti 11,9%-iT Semcirda gasuli wlis imave periodTan SedarebiT. ianvar-aprilSi qveynis farglebs gareT erT miliard dolarze meti Rirebulebis produqcia gavida. saqarTvelos uaryofiTi savaWro balansi miTiTebul periodSi daaxloebiT 1,5 miliardi dolari iyo, rac mTeli sagareo savaWro brunvis 42,2%-s Seadgens. yvelam viciT, rom sagareo vaWrobis klebis mizezi gaxda epidsituaciiT gamowveuli sayovelTao karantini, msoflio masStabiT gamocxadebuli SezRudvebi, dabrkolebebi gadazidvebSi da gadaxdisunarianobis vardna. axali koronavirusiT gamowveuli krizisis gamo, dazaralda logistika, mkveTrad daeca moTxovna, warmoeba, SeCerda sainvesticio aqtivoba, Senelda saerTaSoriso vaWrobis tempi, dabrkoleba Seiqmna moqalaqeTa gadaadgilebisa da samomxmareblo aqtivobis TvalsazrisiT.
– im fonze, rodesac mosaxleoba ver gadis sazRvargareT, Tuki adgilobrivi bazriT davakmayofilebT am moTxovnebs, ratom daartyams sagareo vaWrobis Semcireba Cvens ekonomikas?
– marTali xarT, rodesac krizisi iwyeba, mosaxleoba, ZiriTadad, iZens aucilebels – sakvebs, wyals da samedicino produqtebs. sxva produqciis gamoyeneba mkveTrad mcirdeba. TavisTavad iklebs tansacmliT, fexsacmliT, eleqtroteqnikiT, avejiTa da avtomobilebiT vaWrobac. principSi, isic saTqmelia, rom saqarTveloSi mosaxleobis ZiriTadi nawilis Semosavali mxolod sakvebi produqtebis, komunaluri momsaxurebisa da sabanko gadasaxadebisTvis aris sakmarisi. Seqmnil viTarebaSi mosaxleobis gadaxdisunarianobis amaRlebisa da ekonomikis gaZlierebisTvis, mTavrobam SeZlo sabanko sesxebis gadavadeba da komunalurebis gadaxda mosaxleobis SeWirvebuli fenisTvis, riTac erTgvarad daaregulira SarSan arsebuli viTareba, magram isic unda vicodeT, rom sagareo vaWrobis Semcireba, praqtikulad, yvela segments exeba. saerTaSoriso savaWro nakadebis vardna ekonomikuri aqtivobis vardnas gamoiwvevs. Tu saerTaSoriso vaWroba ar iqneba, gamowvevebis winaSe aRmoCndeba rogorc biznesseqtori, ise mosaxleoba da mTavroba.
– mainc, ra safrTxis winaSe aRmovCndebiT?
– Tu biznesseqtori produqciis gayidvas ver SeZlebs, iZulebuli gaxdeba, Seamciros warmoeba da gaaTavisuflos TanamSromlebi. vaWrobis vardnis gamo kompania ver SeZlebs gadasaxadebis gadaxdas da biujetSi Tanxebi ver Seva. elementarulad, eqsportis Semcirebis gamo, qveyanaSi ucxouri valuta ver Semova, es ki savaluto seqtors daartyams, rac, TavisTavad, imoqmedebs laris kursze, biznesseqtori ki ukve veRar gamoiyenebs sabanko-sakredito produqtebs, rac, Sesabamisad, uaryofiTad aisaxeba finansur seqtorze.
– koronavirusis pandemiasTan erTad, amjerad ram iqonia gavlena sagareo vaWrobis maCveneblebis formirebaze?
– sagareo vaWrobis Semcirebaze pandemiis gamo gavlena iqonia iseTma faqtorebma, rogorebicaa – Semcirebuli moTxovna, SeCerebuli Sesyidvis procesi (yvela elodeba pandemiis dasrulebas), Seferxebuli investiciebi, gazrdili fasebi, cvlilebebi savaWro sqemebSi, savaWro wertilebis daketva an SezRudul reJimSi muSaoba. isic unda aRiniSnos, rom saxelmwifos mxardamWerma RonisZiebebma ver uzrunvelyo sagareo vaWrobis moculobis zrda. stimulirebis miznobrivi midgomebis pirobebSic ki araTanabar situaciaSi aRmoCnda sazogadoebac da biznesic. amasTan, rodesac qveynis sagareo savaWro politika ver qmnis mniSvnelovan raodenobriv da xarisxobriv efeqtebs, es iwvevs ekonomikis aRdgenis Senelebas da umuSevrobis zrdas, Semosavlebis Semcirebas da siRaribis matebas. jamSi biujets mZime tvirTad awveba biznesis da moqalaqeebis ekonomikuri problemebis zrda.
– ra aris saWiro saerTaSoriso vaWrobis maCveneblis zrdisTvis?
– saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis zrda gadis Semdeg procesebze: kompaniebis konkurentunarianobis zrda, saxelmwifo institutebis moqnilobis amaRleba, politikuri mxardaWeris efeqti, krizisidan gamosvlis struqturuli maxasiaTeblebi, sagareo ekonomikuri saqmianobis SesaZleblobebis Seqmna, sagadasaxado-sabiujeto stimulebi, eleqtronuli komerciis eqsportis zrda, regionebSi eqsportis centrebis Seqmna, eqsportiorebze miznobrivi zrunva da axali eqsportiorebis warmoCena. samwuxarod, saqarTvelos saerTaSoriso vaWrobis mcire moculoba cxadyofs, rom qveyana globalur ekonomikaSi mxolod `regionuli Robidan~ yurebis masStabs ver gascda. aRniSnuli mizezi aris sagareo-ekonomikuri politikis susti efeqtebi. mxolod qarTuli politikis potencialzea damokidebuli qarTuli biznessubieqtebisTvis globaluri ayvavebis pirobebis Seqmnis xelSewyoba, radgan biznes-subieqtebi TavianTi SezRuduli resursebiT ver SeZleben globalur bazrebze konkurentunarianobis zrdas.
– rogor aisaxeba sagareo vaWrobis zrda an kleba mosaxleobis Semosavlebze?
– sagareo vaWroba zrdis dasaqmebas, Semosavlebs, qveynis da biznesis keTildReobas, Sedegad – izrdeba qveynis ekonomika. rodesac sagareo vaWroba mcirdeba, mcirdeba warmoeba, warmoebaSi dasaqmebulebis raodenoba, warmoebuli produqciidan miRebuli Semosavlebi (rogorc dasaqmebulebisTvis, ise biznesisTvis), warmoebaSi dasaqmebul pirTa ojaxis keTildReoba, gadasaxadebi da biujetis Semosavlebi. eqsportis Semcireba niSnavs qveyanaSi naklebi ucxouri valutis Semodinebas, met xarjs da ekonomikis aRdgenis nel temps. aRsaniSnia isic, rom saerTaSoriso vaWroba warmoadgens mniSvnelovan politikur instrumentsac savaWro partnioris importior qveyanaze damokidebulobis gamo. Sesabamisad, saqarTvelom regionuli geopolitikuri scenarebis cvlilebebis fonze unda Seqmnas savaWro da sainvesticio nakadebis zrdis dinamikuri politika.
– rogor gvaqvs saqme wels?
– unda aRiniSnos, rom 2021 weli aris ekonomikis da sagareo savaWro aqtivobis zrdis weli. unda iTqvas isic, rom saerTaSoriso organizaciebis SefasebiT, 2021 wels msoflio vaWrobis zrdis tempi 5,1%-8,3% diapazonSi iqneba. globalur bazrebze mosalodnelia fasebis zrda, rac importdamokidebuli da gardamavali ekonomikis mqone qveynisTvis mniSvnelovani Tavsatexia. amasTan, fasebis zrda ar unda gaxdes kerZo seqtoris gankiTxvis saganic, gazrdili tarifebis mosaxleobaze zegavlenis `STanTqma~ swored saxelmwifos movaleobad unda ganvixiloT. sagareo vaWrobis gamococxleba damokidebulia saxelmwifos swor sagadasaxado-sabiujeto stimulebze, sagareo ekonomikuri saqmianobis SesaZleblobebis Seqmnasa da vaqcinaciaze, rasac mTlianobaSi ekonomikis aRdgenasTan mivyavarT. aRniSnul procesSi lomis wili miuZRvis ekonomikis marTvas da politikas. sakiTxis Sejamebis safuZvelze aRvniSnav, rom momavali gamowvevebi iqneba globaluri ekonomikuri konkurenciis pirobebSi saxelmwifos ekonomikuri interesebis dacva, eqsportis diversifikacia, regionuli ekonomikuri safrTxeebis Tavidan arideba.
– sainteresoa, ra gagvaqvs eqsportze, riT vaWrobs saqarTvelo?
– Tqven warmoidgineT, saqarTvelodan saqonlis farTo asortimenti gaaqvT – spilenZis madnebi da koncentratebi, feroSenadnobebi, msubuqi avtomobilebi, naturaluri Rvino, samkurnalo saSualebebi, mineraluri wylebi, damuSavebuli an naxevrad damuSavebuli oqro, Txili da sxva. aRsaniSnavia isic, rom ianvar-aprilSi mxolod oqros eqsporti – 31,1%-iT da spilenZis madnebisa da koncentratebis – 10,4%-iT gaizarda. amave dros, SarSandeli wlis dasawyisidan Semcirda msubuqi avtomobilebis eqsporti 12,4%-iT, feroSenadnobebis 21,7%-iT, naturaluri yurZnis Rvinis – 12,5%-iT, azotovani sasuqebis – 16,5%-iT, mineraluri da mtknari wylebis – 8,7%-iT da a.S.
– ra Semogvaqvs?
– saqarTveloSi Semodis navTobi da navTobproduqtebi, msubuqi avtomobilebi, navTobis airebi da airisebri naxSirwyalbadebi, spilenZis madnebi da koncentratebi, samkurnalo saSualebebi, xorbali, eleqtroenergia, satelefono aparatebi da sxva. aRniSnul periodSi satvirTo avtomobilebis importi gaizarda 19,7%-iT, eleqtroenergiis – 12,9%-iT, navTobis airebisa da airisebri naxSirwyalbadebis – 1%-iT. amavdroulad, Semcirda msubuqi avtomobilebis importi 23,4%-iT, samkurnalo saSualebebis – 8,1%-iT, navTobisa da navTobproduqtebis – 19%-iT. . .
– visTan vaWrobs saqarTvelo?
– yvelaze didi savaWro partniorebi arian TurqeTi, azerbaijani da ruseTi. am qveynebTan savaWro brunvam ianvar-aprilSi 1,2 mlrd dolars gadaaWarba, rac mTliani savaWro brunvis 35,6%-ia. TurqeTTan savaWro brunvam mimdinare wlis ianvar-aprilSi 469,3 milioni dolari Seadgina, rac saqarTvelos mTliani savaWro brunvis 13,5%-ia. or qveyanas Soris savaWro brunva, gasuli wlis amave periodTan SedarebiT, 11,6%-iT gaizarda. TurqeTSi wlis dasawyisidan gavida 13,3 aTas tonaze meti feroSenadnobi, 383,8 aTasi tona trikotaJis nawarmi, naxSirbadiani foladis daaxloebiT 13,9 aTasi tona naxevarfabrikatebi da sxva. TurqeTidan amave periodSi Semovida 18,9 aTasi tona Savi liTonis milebi da profilebi, 219,4 tona samedicino preparati, daaxloebiT 12,9 aTasi tona navTobi da navTobproduqti da ase Semdeg.
– ruseTTan kidev gvaqvs savaWro urTierTobebi?
– rac unda gagikvirdeT, partniorebs Soris ruseTi meore adgilzea. wlis dasawyisidan ruseTis federaciaSi eqsportirebulia daaxloebiT 10,9 aTasi tona feroSenadnobi, 37,9 aTas tonaze meti naturaluri yurZnis Rvino, 27,3 aTas tonaze meti mineraluri da sasmeli wyali, daaxloebiT 2,1 aTasi tona spirtiani sasmeli. . .
– kidev romel qveynebTan vaWrobs saqarTvelo?
– savaWro partniorebis aTeulSi Sedis CineTi (346,1 milion dolarze meti), aSS (162,7 milion dolarze meti), ukraina (174 milion dolarze meti), somxeTi (daaxloebiT 161,4 milioni dolari), germania (daaxloebiT 140 milioni dolari), bulgareTi (145,5 milion dolarze meti), italia (daaxloebiT 65,8 mln dolari).
– ras unda velodoT momavalSi?
– saerTaSoriso kvlevebi aCvenebs, rom globaluri savaWro kraxis Sedegad vaWrobis Semcireba 9%-32% diapazonSi iqneba. aseve, Zalian sayuradReboa vaWrobis masStabebis vardna regionalur doneze. kvlevis Sedegad, evrokavSiris 27 qveynidan eqsportis Semcireba 285 mlrd evros, importis vardna ki 245 mlrd evros gadaaWarbebs.
– analogiuri krizisi iyo Tu ara dafiqsirebuli sxva wlebSic da ra moimoqmedes mowinave saxelmwifoebma maSin?
– 2008-2009 wlebSi evrokavSiris wevrma saxelmwifoebma gamoscades yvelaze mZafri ekonomikuri krizisi 1930-iani wlebis didi depresiis Semdeg. warsul gamocdilebebze dakvirvebiT, ekonomikuri krizisi warmoSobs problemebs adamianis uflebebis dacvasa da aRsrulebaSi. Tavs iCens iseTi mwvave sakiTxebi, rogoricaa: gazrdili umuSevrobis done, Semcirebuli saxelmwifo xarjebi, aseve qsenofobia da rasizmi. ekonomikuri krizisis dros mowyvlad jgufebad miiCnevian bavSvebi, mozardebi, moxucebi, migrantebi da eTnikuri umciresobebi. gazrdili umuSevrobis pirobebSi, evrokavSiris saxelmwifoebma krizisis winaaRmdeg sxvadasxva kontrzoma ganaxorciela. magaliTisTvis, gaerTianebulma samefom postkrizisuli periodis fonze Seqmna programa, romelic 18-24 wlis axalgazrdebs, romlebic ukanaskneli 6 Tvis ganmavlobaSi umuSevrebi iyvnen, samsaxurs sTavazobda. litvaSi, litvis SromiTi birJis axali proeqti, romelsac mxars uWerda evropuli socialuri fondi `iyavi aqtiuri Sromis bazarze~, damsaqmeblebs sTavazobda mwiri gamocdilebis mqone dasaqmebulTa xelfasebis 50%-ian subsidirebas. msgavsi Sinaarsis RonisZiebebi ganaxorcieles sxva qveynebmac, kerZod, espaneTma, safrangeTma da sxvebma. warsulis gamocdileba cxadyofs, rom ekonomikuri krizisis pirobebSi saxelmwifom unda gaiTvaliswinos Tanasworobis principi, ar SezRudos adamianis uflebebi da, aseTis arsebobis SemTxvevaSi, yoveli SezRudva ganpirobebuli unda iyos mwvave socialuri saWiroebiT.