რა ფაზაშია მსოფლიოში ენერგორესურსებისათვის ბრძოლა?
ლაშა ხომერიკი 593 50 82 69 –
msoflios geopolitikas ekonomikuri resursebi da interesebi rom ganapirobebs, araxalia, maTgan umTavresi ki energoresursebia
sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, vinc flobs am resursebs, is karnaxobs TamaSis wesebs sxva qveynebs. am mxriv gansakuTrebiT aqtiurobs ruseTi, misi iaraRi, ZiriTadad, energoresursebia. mainc ra fazaSia msoflioSi energoresursebisaTvis brZola, ratom ewinaaRmdegeboda aSS `CrdiloeTi nakadi 2~-is mSeneblobas, ra strategia SeimuSava dasavleTma ruseTis hegemoniis winaaRmdeg da ramdenad mniSvnelovania samxreT kavkasia energoresursebis TvalsazrisiT?
Tanamedrove msoflio politikis TvalsazrisiT rom mravalpolusiania, amas mimdinare movlenebic cxadyofs. aSS, evrokavSiri, ruseTi da CineTi mTavari aqtorebi arian. es dasturdeba maTi ekonomikuri da samxedro SesaZleblobebiT. zesaxelmwifos statusis SesanarCuneblad energoresursebis floba aucilebelia, amitomac Tanamedrove msoflioSi geopolitikuri brZola energoresursebis dauflebisaTvis midis. energoresursebis floba dResdReobiT qveynis siZlieris niSania. am mxriv msoflio SeiZleba or nawilad davyoT: pirveli – es aris momxmarebeli, meore – mompovebeli energoresursebisa. aris qveynebi, romlebic mompoveblebic arian da momxmareblebic, magram mopovebuli energetikuli resursebi maTTvis sakmarisi ar aris da amitom isini mis mopovebas sxva qveynebSi cdiloben, magaliTad amas akeTebs aSS. garda amisa, ar unda daviviwyoT ruseTis faqtori, romelic Zalian didi raodenobis gazs da navTobs flobs, ruseTi aris evropis erT-erTi mommaragebeli, rusul gazze damokidebuli arian germania, avstria, holandia, aRmosavleT evropis da postsabWoTa saxelmwifoebi.
sxvaTa Soris, ruseTis energetikul strategiaSi sakmaod mkafiodaa dafiqsirebuli, rom energoresursebis eqsporti darCeba ara mxolod ekonomikis, aramed msoflio sazogadoebaSi ruseTis politikuri mdgomareobis ganmsazRvrel sakvanZo faqtorad. ruseTi sxvadasxva meTodiT cdilobda, evropa jer mis navTobze energodamokidebuli gaexada, Semdeg mis winaaRmdeg energoSantaJis politika ewarmoebina. . . arc is unda daviviwyoT, rom ruseTma araerTi gazsadeni (`CrdiloeT nakadi~, `samxreT nakadi~…) Seqmna. am mxriv kremlisTvis arasasiamovno iyo oficialuri parizis pozicia: safrangeTis saxelmwifo mdivanma evropis sakiTxebSi klen bonma Tqva, rom ruseTisTvis evrokavSiris mier dawesebuli sanqciebi ar aris sakmarisi. safrangeTma germanias mouwoda, uari Tqvas gazsaden `CrdiloeTi nakadi 2~-is mSeneblobaze. arada, ruseTi evropaSi gazis gasatanad imeds swored zemoaRniSnul gazsadeze amyarebs. aSS, rogorc vTqviT, am gazsadenis mSeneblobas ewinaaRmdegeboda, magram ruseTma Tavis sawadels miaRwia. TavidaTavi isaa, rom yvelaze didi gazsadeni wlebis ganmavlobaSi iyo `druJba~, romelic cimbiridan evropaSi gadioda da amaragebda gaziT. `CrdiloeTi nakadi 2~-isa da `samxreT nakadis~ amoqmedeba imis niSania, rom ruseTi cdilobs, kidev ufro gaimyaros Tavisi interesebi dasavleTSi.
iyo periodi, roca iaraRiT, atomuri bombiT aSinebda kremli msoflios, magram axla viTareba Seicvala, amJamad es iaraRi gazi da navTobia, figuralurad rom vTqvaT, onkanis gadaketviT ruseTma SeiZleba evropis qveynebs zamTarSi iseTi didi problemebi Seuqmnas, rom aman mosaxleobaSi xelisuflebis mimarT protesti gamoiwvios. swored am energoSantaJis saSualebiT kremlma (2007 wels) garkveuli zemoqmedeba moaxdina evropis zogierT qveyanaze natos gafarToebasTan dakavSirebiT. maSin saqarTvelos natos samitze mapi ar mianiWes, mizezi – TiTqos Cveni politikur-ekonomikuri viTareba ar akmayofilebda natos standartebs da viTom axla albaneTi akmayofilebs! ubralod, dasavleTi ufrTxildeba ruseTTan urTierTobas da garkveulwilad ruseTis interesebsac iTvaliswinebs. . . amitom aSS-s ar surs, rom evropa energodamokidebuli iyos ruseTze, anu misi mizania evrokavSiris qveynebma ruseTis interesebi ar gaataron regionSi. aSS-s SeSfoTebis safuZveli namdvilad aqvs: ruseTis energoresursebi sagareo politikaSi manipulirebis berketia, miT ufro, rom ruseTis energetikul strategiaSi mkafiodaa gacxadebuli kremlis miznebi – kremlis energostrategia iTvaliswinebs globalur energobazarze ruseTis saeqsporto poziciebis gamyarebas, anu geostrategiuli, geoekonomikuri SesaZleblobebis ganmtkicebas dasavleTSi, rac, rogorc aRvniSne, dasavleTis SeSfoTebis safuZvelia.
ras akeTebs evropa, rom ar iyos ruseTze energodamokidebuli? aSS da evropa cdiloben alternatiuli energoresursebis mopovebas da am mxriv garkveuli nabijebis gadadgmas: 1. azerbaijanidan, iranidan da Sua aziidan TurqeTis gavliT, alternatiuli gazmomaragebis derefnis formireba; 2. axlo aRmosavleTis saxelmwifoebidan gaTxevadebuli bunebrivi airis importireba; 3. evropaSi fiqlis bunebrivi airis mopovebis gazrda; 4. CrdiloeTis zRvaSi, britaneTis teritoriul wylebSi navTobisa da bunebrivi airis mopovebis gaormageba, romelic 1 trilioni dolaris investicias moiTxovs; 5. aRmosavleT xmelTaSua auzSi, gansakuTrebiT, kviprosis teritoriul wylebSi navTobis maragebis aRmoCena; 6. evropaSi didi tevadobis bunebrivi airis sacavebis mSenebloba; 7. CrdiloeT afrikis qveynebidan importis gazrda da a. S. garda amisa, dasavleTma aSS-is liderobiT ramdenime amocana gadaWra: 1. navTobdolarebze dafuZnebuli rusuli ekonomika da finansuri sfero mniSvnelovani gamowvevebis winaSe daayena. aRsaniSnavia, rom ruseTis eqsportis 68, xolo federaluri eqsportis 50 procenti energoresursis eqsportze modis; 2. ruseTs, faqtobrivad, mouspo kolosaluri Tanxebis xarjvis SesaZlebloba. rogorc globalur, ise samezoblo sivrceSi aqtiuri sagareo politikis warmoebisTvis. garda amisa, dawesebuli ekonomikuri sanqciebi kvlav ZalaSia, rac ruseTis ekonomikas aferxebs. aAse rom, dasavleTi Tanmimdevrulad cdilobs ruseTis ambiciebis moTokvas da mis mimarT nacad strategias mimarTavs, raTa moskovi saerTaSoriso samarTlis normebs daemorCilos. jerjerobiT, kremli mainc ar reagirebs dasavleTis moTxovnebze (Tundac okupirebuli teritoriebis deokupaciis mxriv) da postsabWoTa sivrcesa da axlo aRmosavleTSi agresiul politikas awarmoebs. ara marto dRes, aramed 90-iani wlebis dasawyisidan aSS da ruseTi cal-calke cdiloben TavianTi gavlenebis arealis gafarToebas. amerikis da natos maRalCinosnebis vizitebi Savi zRvis akvatoriaSi imis niSania, rom aSS ruseTis arealis Seviwroebas cdilobs am regionSi, ruseTi ki iRvwis samxreT kavkasiaSi aSS-is gavlenebis ganulebisTvis. amis niSania Tundac `3+3~ formatis inicireba da Tavs moxvevis mcdeloba saqarTvelosTvis. mokled, kavkasiaSi aSS-is da ruseTis interesTa dapirispireba mZafr xasiaTs iZens da es, garkveulwilad am regionSi energoresursebis Warbi maragiTaa gamowveuli.