30 წელი – საბჭოთა კავშირის დაშლიდან
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2021 wlis dekembris miwuruls 30 weli sruldeba sabWoTa kavSiris daSlidan. cxadia, Cndeba kiTxvebi: ram ganapiroba sabWoTa kavSiris daSla – saSinao Tu sagareo faqtorebma?
analitikosTa TqmiT, sabWoTa kavSiris daSla ganpirobebuli iyo misi politikuri da ekonomikuri wyobiT. saxelmwifo wyobileba efuZneboda erTpartiul da erTpirovnul mmarTvelobas. mizani – komunizmi ki utopiuri iyo. kompleqsuri mizezebis gamo sabWoTa reJimma ar gaamarTla. pirvel rigSi, saSinao faqtorebia aRsaniSnavi, ris gamoc gare samyaro daupirispirda sabWoTa kavSirs. sabWoeTi izolirebuli iyo danarCeni msofliosgan, CamorCa dasavleTs ekonomikuri da teqnologiuri ganviTarebiT. sabWoTa ekonomika ufskrulisken mieqaneboda, navTobis fasi msoflio bazarze ar iyo stabiluri. amave dros, sabWoTa Cinovnikebi korufciaSi iyvnen Caflulni, amas daemata avRaneTis aTwliani omi, romelmac garkveulwilad, ganapiroba sabWoeTis daSla, jer aRmosavleT evropa ganTavisuflda kremlis marwuxebisgan, Semdeg analogiuri movlenebi postsabWoTa qveynebSic ganviTarda.
unda aRiniSnos, rom baltiispireTis qveynebis garda TiTqmis yvela qveyana moumzadebeli Sexvda damoukideblobas. es am qveynebSi ganviTarebulma movlenebmac cxadyo. ekonomikurma qaosma, ZmaTamkvlelma omma (saqarTvelo, tajikeTi, moldova) ruseTs gauadvila gavlenis sferoebisTvis brZola, Tumca Tavad ruseTic dazaralda. sabWoTa kavSiri rom daiSala, igi qaosma moicva, uperspeqtivo gaxda. eqspertebi ruseTis umTavres geopolitikur danakargad miiCneven Semdges: dakargulia 5 mln kvm-ze meti, aseve baltiis (garda sanqt-peterburgisa da kaliningradisa) da Savi zRvisken gasasvlelebi, Tumca yirimis aneqsiiT ruseTma es problema gadaWra, ris gamoc seriozul fass ixdis ekonomikuri sanqciebiT. ruseTma dakarga centraluri da dasavleT evropisken pirdapiri saxmeleTo gasasvlelebic. amas daemata isic, rom ruseTi ekonomikur kriziss ganicdida. im periodSi dasavleTi mas safuZvlianad rom ar daxmareboda, am qveyanaSi qaosi daisadgurebda. mokled, dasavleTi endo elcins da mis reformatorul gunds. amis mizezi isic iyo, rom maSin dasavleTs kremlis faruli mxardaWera sWirdeboda balkaneTSi. samagierod, postsabWoTa qveynebi (baltiispireTis qveynebis garda) ruseTis sivrced aRiara. es droebiTi garigeba aRmoCnda. ori wlis Semdeg aSS gaaqtiurdeba samxreT kavkasiaSi… magram manamde ruseTi saqarTvelosa da tajikeTSi kanonier xelisuflebebs daamxobs da amavdroulad, afxazeTis, nawilobriv cxinvalis regionis da dnestrispireTis okupacias ganaxorcielebs.
mas Semdeg, rac sabWoTa kavSiri daiSala, dasavleTSi bevrs egona, rom ruseTi ukuagdebda velikoderJavul miswrafebas da Camoyalibdeboda demokratiul saxelmwifod, romelic Seegueboda yofili mokavSire respublikebis damoukideblobas, magram es varaudi ar gamarTlda, TviT dsT-is da Semdeg evraziuli kavSiris konturebi bevrs miaCnia sabWoTa kavSiris reanimaciis mcdelobad. marTalia, dsT ar gadaiqca axal monstrad, Tumca samwuxarod, ruseTma mainc SeZlo Tavisi miznebis nawilobriv ganxorcieleba – Cvens qveyanas afxazeTi da samaCablo waarTva, moldovaSi dnestrispireTis konfliqti gaaRviva, ukrainas ki yirimi wahglija.
rogorc analitikosebi acxadeben, ruseTi cdilobs, evaWros dasavleTs, TavidaTavi is aris, rom mas aRar iwveven didi Svideulis samitze, rac Tavmoyvareobas ulaxavs. arada, ruseTs yovelTvis surda, stalinis droidan dawyebuli, msoflio arenaze gadawyvetilebis procesSi monawileoba da Tavisi gavlenis gaZliereba. aqedan gamomdinare, ruseTis agresia gamoiwvia swored misi interesebis argaziarebam, gauTvaliswineblobam, anu yvela mniSvnelovan gadawyvetilebas ruseTis gareSe iRebdnen, rac mis gaRizianebas iwvevda. amitomac dRes daundobeli brZola mimdinareobs evraziis kontinentze axali geopolitikuri gavlenebis Camosayalibeblad, es exeba saqarTvelos, ukrainas, romlebic cdiloben natoSi gawevrianebas da amiT ruseTis mravalsaukunovani gavlenis sferoebidan gamosvlas, rasac, cxadia, moskovis mxridan seriozuli winaaRmdegoba xvdeba. garda amisa, kremlma amas winaT kategoriulad mosTxova natos, rom 2008 wlis buqarestis samitze piroba – saqarTvelos da ukrainis natoSi gawevrianebis sakiTxi gadaixedos anu ar gafarTovdes aliansi aRmosavleTiT, razec sakadrisi pasuxi miiRo – saqarTvelo da ukraina gaxdebian natos wevrebi da kremli am sakiTxSi ver Caereva, rac imas niSnavs, rom dasavleTi ar aRiarebs kremliseul gavlenis sferoebs, axla mTavaria, ar davuSvaT sabediswero Secdomebi da arCeul gzas ar gadavuxvioT, am mxriv qarTulma saxelmwifom yvelaze meti dro Sida konsolidacias unda dauTmos, raTa Cveni samSoblo yovelmxriv gaZlierdes.
