2021 წლის პოლიტიკური კალეიდოსკოპი
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rogori iyo 2021 weli saqarTvelosTvis? ra problemebi gamoikveTa? ra gamowvevebi dgas axla Cven winaSe da rogoria maTi mogvarebis perspeqtivebi da saSualebebi? SevecdebiT, yvela am kiTxvas Tanmimdevrulad vupasuxoT
tradiciulad, yvela cdilobs, Seajamos ganvlili periodi, gadaxedos momxdar movlenebs da politikosebisgan gansxvavebiT, obieqturad Seafasos es weli. am mxriv Tvals Tu gadavavlebT 2021 wels, SeiZleba gamovyoT ramdenime mniSvnelovani movlena. upirveles yovlisa, aRsaniSnavia Sarl miSelis dokumentze opoziciisa da mmarTveli partiis xelis mowera, ramac sakmaod mZime politikuri viTareba garkveulwilad daastabilura, aseve mTavrobis meTaur gaxarias gadadgoma Tanamdebobidan. cxadia, gverds ver avuvliT arCevnebs da saakaSvilis Camosvlas qveyanaSi. misma dapatimrebam aCvena wlis ganmavlobaSi mimdinare socialur-ekonomikuri da politikuri procesebis ganviTarebis kanonzomiereba.
unda aRiniSnos, rom 2021 wlis dasawyisi qveynisTvis mniSvnelovani Sida movlenebiT ar iyo gamorCeuli, Tu ar CavTvliT sakanonmdeblo organoSi mimdinare procesebs, sadac Tavdapirvelad mxolod mmarTveli partia saqmianobda, risi mizezic opoziciis TvalTaxedviT 2020 wlis arCevnebis gayalbeba iyo. gaimarTa demonstraciebi, eqsprezidentma mimarTa SimSilobas da a. S. mmarTveli partia opoziciis Sefasebas arCevnebis gayalbebasTan dakavSirebiT ar iziarebda da kolegebs parlamentSi Sesvlas urCevda. . . ase grZeldeboda daaxloebiT sami Tve, Tavdapirvelad parlamentSi Sevidnen `moqalaqeebi – aleko elisaSvili~, Semdeg mas mibaZa `patriotTa aliansis~ samma yofilma wevrma, Tavad irma inaSvili ar aRiarebs arCevnebis Sedegebs, Tumca marto amaTi yofna parlamentSi legitimaciis problemebs ver mouxsnida mmarTvel gunds. kompromisze wasvlas ki arcerTi mxare (opozicia, mmarTveli partia) ar apirebda. saqmeSi CaerTo dasavleTi. fasilitatoris roli ikisra evroparlamentis Tavmjdomare Sarl miSelma, romelmac aprilis dasawyisSi prezident zurabiSvilis rezidenciaSi Sekriba mmarTveli partiis liderebi da opoziciis warmomadgenlebi, kerZod, `strategia aRmaSenebeli~, `lelo saqarTvelosTvis~, `girCi~ da calkeuli politikosebi, magaliTad, salome samadaSvili. . . bevri kamaTisa da sja-baasis Semdeg Sarl miSelis dokumentze xelis moweras daTanxmda rogorc mmarTveli partia, ise opoziciis nawili, am SeTanxmebis Tanaxmad ki adgilobrivi TviTmmarTvelobis arCevnebSi Tu mmarTveli partia gadalaxavda daTqmul 43 procents, maSin riggareSe arCevnebi ar Catardeboda. mokled, SeTanxmeba gaformda, ramac arasaparlamento opoziciis nawilis ukmayofileba gamoiwvia, magaliTad, Salva naTelaSvilma am xelSekrulebis gaformebis monawileebi moRalateebad Seracxa. `ori Tve rom moeTmina opozicias da am samarcxvino SeTanxmebaze xeli ar moewera, mmarTveli partia mniSvnelovan daTmobebze wamovidoda, magram opoziciam sulmokleoba gamoiCina da xelisuflebas mmarTveloba gauxangrZliva~, – aRniSna naTelaSvilma. amis Semdeg procesebi ukve Seuqcevadi gaxda, parlamentSi rigrigobiT Sevidnen `evropuli saqarTvelos~ yofili wevrebi, mere Tako Carkviani, grigol vaSaZe da sabolood `nacmoZraobac~, romelic iZulebuli gaxda, SeerTeboda Sarl miSelis dokuments, yovel SemTxvevaSi, ase amboben mmarTveli partiis warmomadgenlebi. asea Tu ise, cxadia, Sarl miSelis dokumentze xelis moweram qveyanaSi politikuri situacia daastabilura adgilobriv arCevnebamde.
vidre es arCevnebi gaimarTeboda, qveyanaSi aranaklebi mniSvnelobis movlena moxda.
TebervalSi qveynis premier-ministri gadadga. mizezi, rogorc Tavad gaxaria ambobs, mmarTvel partiasTan garkveul sakiTxebSi SeuTanxmebloba iyo. zogadad, saqarTvelos istoriaSi premier-ministris gadadgoma pirveli ar yofila. ra xdeba politikur kulisebSi, es CvenTvis karga xans ucnobi darCeba, magram gansakuTrebulad gaugebaria erTi sakiTxi: Cveni premier-ministrebi gadadgomis win yovelTvis raRac did gegmebze saubroben. iqmneba iseTi STabeWdileba, rom swored isini arian am strategiuli kursis ganxorcielebis avtorebi, magram aseTi gancxadebis fonze Cven viRebT sruliad sxva Sedegs, sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, premier-ministrebi ise akeTeben gancxadebebs gadadgomis Sesaxeb, rom ar xsnian realur mizezebs. ar aris gamoricxuli, rom premieris gadadgoma Sidapolitikuri dapirispirebis Sedegi iyos. . . axali premier-ministri irakli RaribaSvili gaxda, romelmac es Tanamdeboba meorejer daikava. arCevnebamde politikuri situacia qveyanaSi garkveulwilad, stabiluri iyo, Tu ar CavTvliT nika melias ramdenimeTvian dapatimrebas, igi, rogorc amboben, dasavleTis CarTulobiT gamouSves.
cxadia, wlis umniSvnelovanesi movlena adgilobrivi TviTmmarTvelobis arCevnebi iyo, aranaklebi rezonansi hqonda saakaSvilis Camosvlas, Semdeg mis dapatimrebas, SimSilobas da sabolood goris samxedro saavadmyofoSi moTavsebas. am movlenebmac iTamaSa Tavisi roli arCevnebis Sedegebze. eqspertebi acxadeben, rom arCevnebi orpolusiani iyo, miuxedavad imisa, rom ramdenime municipalitetSi meore turi gaimarTa da magaliTad, walenjixaSi meri opozicioneri gaxda. arCevnebma polarizebul viTarebaSi Caiara, miuxedavad imisa, rom gaxarias partiam mesame sapatio adgili daikava aTprocentiani SedegiT. ramdenad paradoqsuladac unda mogveCvenos, meore turis gamarTvasTan dakavSirebiT ori simarTle gvaqvs: erTi – TiTqos es iyo demokratiis zeimi da 30 wlis ganmavlobaSi saqarTveloSi msgavsi ram ar momxdara, meore SemTxvevaSi – adgilobrivi arCevnebis Sedegebma garkveuli kiTxvis niSnebi datova.
ra Tqma unda, Zalian pozitiurad Sefasda prezidentis iniciativa politikur speqtrs Soris, konsensusis miRwevasTan dakavSirebiT. am mxriv gamowvevebia rogorc qveynis SigniT, ise sagareo politikis TvalsazrisiT. amitomac mniSvnelovania, rom qarTuli politikuri partiebi SeTanxmdnen qveynisTvis mniSvnelovan sakiTxebze, am mimarTebiT ukve gaimarTa Sexvedra prezidentis rezidenciaSi rogorc umravlesobis wevrebTan, ise opoziciis calkeul warmomadgenlebTan. Sexvedris survili gamoTqva `nacmoZraobamac~, rac, cxadia, misasalmebelia, Tumca am etapze SeTanxmebis miRweva ararealurad miaCnia arasaparlamento opoziciis liderebis nawils. maTi TqmiT, vidre riggareSe arCevnebi ar dainiSneba da saakaSvili ar gaTavisufldeba, ufro sworad, obieqturi sasamarTlo ar ganixilavs mis saqmes, manamde qveyanaSi stabiluroba ar daisadgurebs. am niadagze `nacmoZraobis~ ramdenime liderma da aqtivistma SimSiloba daiwyo moTxovniT saakaSvilis gaTavisuflebis Taobaze, rac zogierTi opozicioneris azriT, araswori strategiaa, Tanac prezidentis iniciativas SeTanxmebis Sesaxeb CixSi aqcevs, sxvebi ki piriqiT, Tvlian, rom SimSiloba xels ar uSlis molaparakebebis process. asea Tu ise, cxadia is, rom parlamenti erTpartiuli ar aris, opozicia, garkveulwilad, daiSala da urTierTbraldebebiT arian dakavebulni, prezidenti zurabiSvili mmarTveli partiis da opoziciis Serigebas cdilobs, ra gamova am saSviliSvilo saqmidan, momavali dagvanaxebs.
gadavideT sagareo politikaze. vfiqrob, 2021 wels globalur politikaSi araferi momxdara iseTi, rac zogadad, ar axasiaTebs saerTaSoriso sistemas misi arsebobis ganmavlobaSi. Tumca 2021 weli globalur politikaSi mniSvnelovania im garemoebiT, rom pandemia kvlav boboqrobs Cvens planetaze da milionobiT adamianis sicocxle Seiwira, garda amisa, aRsaniSnavia, rom regionSi Seiqmna `3+3~ formatis kavSiri, romelSic gaerTianden ruseTi, irani, TurqeTi da ori samxreTkavkasiuri (somxeTi, azerbaijani) qveyana. am kavSirSi saqarTvelosac epatiJebian. bevris azriT, es gaerTianeba Tavisi suliskveTebiT antidasavluri iqneba, amitomac saqarTvelom mas boikoti unda gamoucxados, miT umetes, rom ruseTs Cveni teritoriebi aqvs okupirebuli da mcocav okupacias agrZelebs. es weli aseve mniSvnelovania im garemoebiT, rom oficialurad daiwyo e. w. civi omi dasavleTsa da ruseTs Soris. ukrainis krizisi amis naTeli dadasturebaa. dasavleTis mier ruseTis winaaRmdeg dawesebuli sanqciebi miuTiTebs, rom ruseT-dasavleTis interesebis daaxloeba SeuZlebelia.
ratom gaCaRda hibriduli civi omi? eqspertebi acxadeben, rom warsulis `civi omisgan~ gansxvavebiT, amJamad dasavleTi srulmasStabian konfrontaciaze ver midis ruseTTan. aki Tqva baidenma, rom Tu ruseTi SeiWreba ukrainaSi, is mis sawinaaRmdegod samxedroebs ar gagzavnis, Tumca jojoxeTuri sanqciebi amoqmeddeba, rac ruseTisTvis momakvdinebeli iqneba.
rac Seexeba saqarTvelos sagareo politikuri viTarebis TvalsazrisiT, Cveni qveynis mdgomareoba, vfiqrob, ar Secvlila, saqarTvelos kursi kvlav prodasavluria, qveyana sxvadasxva dasavlur samitSi monawileobs, rac mTavaria, natos mdivanma amaswinaT xazgasmiT aRniSna, rom saqarTvelos gaerTianebas natoSi ruseTi xels ver SeuSlis, Tumca isic cxadia, rom ruseTi am mimarTulebiT Cvenda sazianod aqtiurobs. mokled, qveynis umTavresi problema aris ruseTi, romelic Zalian bevr rames gansazRvravs politikis, ekonomikis, Tu socialuri mimarTulebiT, meore – susti ekonomika, polarizebuli sazogadoeba da urTierTdapirispirebuli politikuri speqtri. es sistemuri problemebi sxva qveproblemebsac ganapirobebs. maT mosagvareblad xelisuflebas Zalian seriozuli muSaoba marTebs, zemoT CamoTvlili sirTuleebi dakavSirebulia xelisuflebis politikur nebasa da politikur gadawyvetilebebTan, maTi mogvareba mniSvnelovnad ganamtkicebs xelisuflebisadmi ndobas da uzrunvelyofs qveynis winsvla-ganviTarebas.
