შესაძლებლობების და გამოწვევების წელი – 2022
ლაშა ხომერიკი: 593 50 82 69 –
2022 weli Cveni qveynisTvis mravalmxriv mniSvnelovani iqneba rogorc saSinao, ise sagareo politikis TvalsazrisiT – gairkveva ara marto mmarTveli partiis da opoziciis urTierTTanamSromlobis detalebi sxvadasxva sakiTxTan mimarTebiT, aramed iseTi Zireuli sakiTxebi, rogorebicaa natosTan daaxloeba, anu map-is miniWeba, aSS-Tan strategiuli mokavSiris xelSekrulebis gaformeba da cxadia, ruseTis saboloo gegmebi saqarTvelosTan mimarTebaSi
rogor gadawyvets qveynis xelisufleba am sakiTxebs, es mniSvnelovnad ganapirobebs saqarTvelos daaxloebas dasavleTTan, anu gaerTianebas natosa da evrokavSirSi. Cven, amjerad ZiriTadad qveynis Sida politikaze visaubrebT, radgan swored stabiluri Sida politikuri garemo ganapirobebs qveynis ganviTarebas da winsvlas, arastabiluroba da miT umetes samoqalaqo omi qveynas ara mxolod saxelmwifoebriobis TvalsazrisiT azaralebs, aramed suverenitetsac uzRudavs, amis mkafio magaliTia Tundac yazaxeTi. faqtobrivad, ruseTis jarma am qveynis okupacia moaxdina da arsebuli xelisufleba masze damokidebuli gaxada. aki Tqva aSS-is saxelmwifo mdivanma, rom vinc iwvevs ruseTis jars qveynaSi, unda icodes, rom is didxans darCeba da amave dros daaSantaJebs adgilobriv xelisuflebas . . . es magaliTi unda iyos sxvadasxva qveynisTvis. kidev kargi, rom Cvens qveyanaSi am saSiSroebas acnobiereben, rogorc mmarTveli partiis, ise opoziciis warmomadgenlebi. yovel SemTxvevaSi, maTi TqmiT, yazaxuri drama CvenTan ar ganmeordeba, radgan msgavsi ram Cvenma qveyanam 90-ian wlebSi gaiara da Cveni politikuri speqtri saxelmwifoebrivad azrovnebs, Tumca isic cxadia, rom kremli kvlav Seecdeba saqarTveloSi politikuri situacia daZabos da mere ,,momrigeblis~ statusiT mogvevlinos, rom qveyana Tavisi upirobo gavlenis qveS moaqcios. amitom, rogorc vTqvi, qveynis Sida stabiluroba zemniSvnelovania. am mxriv dasavluri politikuri elita didi yuradRebiT adevnebs Tvals saqarTveloSi mimdinare procesebs. maTTvis Cveni qveyana regionSi (miuxedavad imisa, rom am bolo dros imata SeniSvnebma xelisuflebis mimarT sxvadasxva sakiTxTan dakavSirebiT) warmatebulis, stabilurobis imijiT sargeblobs, amitom maTi rCevebi da drodadro kritika swored saqarTvelos keTildReobazea gaTvlili.
xazgasmiT unda aRiniSnos, rom gza evrokavSirisa da natosken warmatebuli qveynis xvedria da Tu am gziT vivliT, arc progresuli msoflios mxardaWera da Tanadgoma mogvakldeba, Tumca isic saTqmelia, rom msoflio Tanamegobroba kanonis uzenaesobis dacvasa da demokratiuli reformebis gatarebaSi mxolod dapirebebs didxans ar Seegueba. isini gamadidebeli miniT akvirdebian Tundac xazaraZe-jafariZis sasamarTlo process da sxvadasxva Sida sakiTxis gadawyvetas. Tu maT eWvi SeeparaT zemoaRniSnuli procesis kanonzomierebaSi, maSin dasavleTisgan izolireba ar agvcdeba, rac ruseTis strategiuli amocanaa.
ra mdgomareobaa am mxriv, anu Seesabameba Tu ara Cveni demokratiis xarisxi dasavlurs? saerTod, demokratiis xarisxis absoluturi sazomi ar arsebobs, is TiToeuli qveynisTvis individualuria, Tu daveyrdnobiT Cveni dasavleli megobrebis da mokavSireebis azrs, qveynis demokratiulobis indeqsi garkveulwilad, dadebiT Sefasebas imsaxurebs, Tumca qveyanaSi aris sferoebi, sadac ikveTeba kiTxvis niSnebi. eqspertTa TqmiT, es sferoebia sasamarTlo xelisufleba, gaumWvirvaloba TviTmmarTvelobebSi, ceskos dakompleqtebis wesi da SerCeviTi samarTli sxvadasxva sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi. saqarTveloSi ver moxerxda stabiluri, grZelvadian perspeqtivaze orientirebuli partiuli sistemis Camoyalibeba. vgulisxmob imas, rom bolo 30 wlis ganmavlobaSi saqarTvelos mmarTveli politikuri Zalebis namoqmedari erTgvarad, politikur aqciebs hgavda, kerZod, TiToeuli maTgani modioda xelisuflebaSi xalxis udidesi mxardaWeris pirobebSi da saboloo jamSi, moRvaweobas asrulebda fiaskoTi. faqtia, rom mmarTveli partiebi arsebobas wyvetdnen mokle periodSi, rogorc magaliTad, `mrgvali magida~ da `moqkavSiri~. `nacmoZraoba~ ar gamqrala, samagierod, Zalaufleba dakarga, xolo `qarTulma ocnebam~ SeuZlebeli SeZlo: mesamejer darCa xelisuflebaSi, opoziciis azriT, ZiriTadad, gayalbebis xarjze, rasac ar eTanxmebian mmarTveli partiis wevrebi da ma-Ti momxreebi. ra iqneba 2024 wlis arCevnebSi, amas momavali dagvanaxebs…
opozicia riggareSe arCevnebs iTxovs da am mimarTulebiT, rogorc aanonsebs, qmediT nabijebs gadadgams, Tumca premier-ministrma RaribaSvilma xazgasmiT aRniS-na, rom momavali arCevnebi 2024 wels gaimarTeba da am xnis ganmavlobaSi qveyanaSi sasikeTo saqmeebi gakeTdeba, Tu rame eqst-raordinaruli ar moxda (masobrivi saprotesto aqciebi, Sida dapirispireba mmarTvel partiaSi). saparlamento arCevnebamde sami weli darCa da Znelia prognozi, Tumca garkveuli daskvnis gakeTeba SeiZleba: jer erTi, mniSvnelovania, ra kondiciaSi iqnebian mmarTveli partia da opozicia, rogori iqneba qveynis ekonomikuri mdgomareoba da a.S.
aki aRvniSneT, rom es weli mravalmxriv mniSvnelovani iqneba. upirveles yovlisa, am kuTxiT gadamwyveti roli xelisuflebas ekisreba, umniSvnelovanesia opoziciis rolic. eqspertebi acxadeben, rom am mimarTulebiT mmarTvelma partiam unda SeZlos garkveulwilad, opoziciasTan saqmiani atmosferos Seqmna, raRac sakiTxebSi daTmobaze wasvla. daTmoba ar niSnavs sisustes, aucilebelia, Tundac ceskos evropuli standartebiT dakompleqteba, sasamarTlo xelisuflebis realuri damoukideblobisTvis xelis Sewyoba da qveynis usafrTxoebis ganmtkiceba. Tavis mxriv opoziciamac unda amoigdos Tavidan riggareSe arCevnebis moTxovna.
rac Seexeba mesame prezidents, eqspertTa nawili acxadebs, rom Tu saakaSvilis saqmes evropeli mosamarTleebi ganixilaven, amiT mmarTveli partia ufro aimaRlebs reitings dasavleTis TvalSi. ra da rogor iqneba, amas dro dagvanaxebs, Tumca imis Tqma danamdvilebiT SeiZleba, rom Tu 2022 wels qveyanaSi stabiluri politikuri garemo iqneba da Tanac zemoaRniSnuli sakiTxebi (ceskos evropuli, demokratiuli standartebiT dakompleqteba, sasamarTlo sistemis Tavisufleba da a.S.) qveynis sakeTildReod gadawydeba, maSin dasavleTi ufro SeZlebs Cvens daxmarebas da amave dros, ruseTsac gauWirdeba saqarTvelos saSinao saqmeebSi Careva. aq ar igulisxmeba okupirebuli afxazeTi da cxinvalis regioni.
jerjerobiT qveyanaSi stabiluri politikuri garemoa, es SeiZleba imiTac aixsnas, rom qarTveli politikosebi Zvel axal wlamde ar aqtiuroben, Tumca arc manamde iyo opozicia aqtiuri. es bolo ori Tvea, opozicia dambladacemulia. yovel SemTxvevaSi amas adasturebs maTi qmedebebi. eqspertebi imasac amboben, rom opozicia daSorda xalxs. isini satelevizio opoziciis farglebs ver gascdnen. is ki ara, TviT Salva naTelaSvilmac ar gamoricxa parlamentSi Sesvla, radgan mTelma opoziciam mas boikotSi mxari ar auba, rac cxadia, opoziciis amomrCevels abnevs. mokled, opozicia araTanmimdevrulia. samagierod, monoliTuria mmarTveli partia, anu opoziciam mZlavri saprotesto muxti ver gaaRviva mosaxleobaSi da garkveulwilad, daiqsaqsa . . . Tumca `nacmoZraoba~ aanonsebs, rom gava regionebSi da mosaxleobas darazmavs saprotesto muxtis asamaRleblad. am mxriv eqspertebi acxadeben, rom uaRresad mniSvnelovania, riT dasruldeba xazaraZe-jafariZis sasamarTlo procesi, anu sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, Tu dasavleTsac eWvi Seepareba sasamarTlos obieqtur ganaCenSi, es garkveulwilad, qveynis imijsac daazaralebs da amave dros, saparlamento saqmianobis efeqturobas Crdils miayenebs, yovel SemTxvevaSi ase amboben Tavad partia `lelo saqarTvelosTvis~ wevrebi, mmarTveli partiis warmomadgenlebi ki acxadeben, rom CvenTan sasamarTlo sistema Tavisufalia da xelisufleba mis saqmianobaSi ar ereva da kanonis winaSe yvela Tanasworia.
Cven gamowvevebi vaxseneT. cxadia, rom okupirebuli teritoriebi da mcocavi okupacia, arastabiluri politikuri garemo qveynis umTavresi gamowvevaa. am mxriv eqspertebi acxadeben, rom dRes qveyanas yvelaze metad sWirdeba ekonomikuri aRmavloba. Tu qveyanaSi ekonomikuri ganviTarebis tempi ar daCqarda, xelisuflebas ar eqneba resursebi, rom qveynis winaSe arsebul gamowvevebTan gamklaveba SeZlos. mas gauWirdeba sazogadoebis winaSe valdebulebebis Sesruleba. amitom xelisuflebam meti unda gaakeTos ekonomikuri reformebis ganxorcielebisTvis, ufro unda Seuwyos xeli ekonomikuri dargebis ganviTarebas. cxadia, ekonomikurad Zlier da politikurad stabilur qveyanasTan yvela moindomebs megobrobas da TanamSromlobas, xolo Tu mudmivad ekonomikur krizisSi viqnebiT, mimzidveli qveyana aravisTvis gavxdebiT, Tu ar CavTvliT ruseTs, romelic axlac ocnebobs saqarTveloSi samoqalaqo dapirispirebaze da amiT Cveni qveynis evropuli momavlis mospobaze.
axals arafers vityvi, Tu aRvniSnav, rom 2022 wlis politikuri mozaika qveyanaSi bevrwilad damokidebuli iqneba moqmedi xelisuflebis gadawyvetilebebze, anu ramdenad sazogadoebis keTildReobaze orientirebul gadawyvetilebebs miiReben, amazea damokidebuli sazogadoebis reaqciac. Tu mTavroba SeZlebs adekvaturad upasuxos sazogadoebriv gamowvevebs, maSin maTi reitingic moimatebs da qveyana politikur stabilurobas SeinarCunebs, rac yoveli xelisuflebis movaleobaa.
