უკრაინა – დონბასს, ჩვენ კი აფხაზეთს დავიბრუნებთ?
ხატია იაშვილი 591 98 24 26 –
sagareo saqmeTa saministrom amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis warmomadgenelsa da Jenevis diskusiis TanaTavmjdomareebTan mcocavi okupacia, gatacebebi, adamianis uflebebis darRveva da saokupacio xazs miRma arsebuli humanitaruli problemebi kvlav qveynis mTavar gamowvevad daasaxela
ruseTis sagareo uwyeba aRniSnavs, rom am mimarTulebiT muSaobis gasagrZeleblad yvelaze optimalur platformad kvlav Jenevis diskusiebi rCeba, romelic `uzrunvelyofs molaparakebis CarCoebs soxums, Tbilissa da cxinvals Soris urTierTobebis regulirebisTvis~. ruseTis sagareo saqmeTa saministrom xelSekrulebebis ori proeqti gamoaqveyna, romelic natosa da aSS-isgan usafrTxoebis garantiebs iTvaliswinebs.
SeTanxmebis proeqtis pirveli teqstis mixedviT, ruseTi natosgan Semdgomi gafarToebisa da ukrainis aliansSi gawevrianebis gamoricxvas iTxovs, aseve uaris Tqmas damatebiTi Zalebisa da SeiaraRebis ganTavsebaze im teritoriebze, sadac aliansi 1997 wlis maisamde imyofeboda, kerZod, aRmosavleT evropis qveynebis aliansSi gawevrianebamde.
amasTan, proeqtis teqstSi aRniSnulia, rom natom uari unda Tqvas nebismier samxedro saqmianobaze ukrainaSi, aRmosavleT evropaSi, amierkavkasiaSi, centralur aziaSi da ar unda ganaTavsos saSualo da mokle radiusis raketebi iseT adgilas, saidanac meore mxaris teritoriaze saraketo dartyma iqneba SesaZlebeli.
am sakiTxebze interviu vTxoveT saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis specialist irakli gogavas.
– batono irakli, Tu SeiZleba, mimovixiloT msoflioSi mimdinare cvlilebebi.
– mogexsenebaT, meore msoflio omis Sedegad damyarebuli potsdamis wesrigi Seicvala sabWoTa kavSiris daSliT, rodesac ruseTma uari Tqva samxedro aliansebze, varSavis paqtze da sabWoTa respublikebi gamocxaddnen damoukidebel saxelmwifoebad. yvelaferma aman Secvala gavlenis sferoebi msoflio landSaftze da ZalTa centrebs Soris gaaCina erTgvari dapirispireba. gasuli saukunis 90-ian wlebSi, ekonomikuri sisustis da gardamavali periodis gamo, ruseTs ar SeeZlo pretenziebi gamoeTqva gavlenis sferoebSi myofi teritoriebis dakargvaze, magram dasavleTis xelSewyobiT rogorc ki moZlierda, iTxovs 90-iani wlebis Semdeg arsebuli mdgomareobis gadaxedvas.
– konkretulad ras iTxovs?
– natos gafarToebis 5 talRis gadasinjvas, miT umetes, rom amJamad meeqvse talRazea saubari, rac gulisxmobs ukraina-saqarTvelos SesaZlo gawevrianebas. es, cxadia, ruseTisTvis sagangaSoa, vinaidan moskovidan xarkovamde 450 km-ia, Sesabamisad, didi konfliqtis SemTxvevaSi, saSualo radiusis raketebi 7 wuTSi miaRwevs moskovs. amis gamo ruseTi oficialurad gamoxatavs SeSfoTebas da kategoriuli toniT iTxovs axali SeTanxmebis miRwevas evropaSi usafrTxoebis Taobaze. amerikelebs uari ar uTqvamT da dausxdnen kidec mosalaparakeblad. dRes mimdinareobs am Temebis ganxilva, rac uSualod exeba rogorc ukrainas, ise saqarTvelos.
– Tqveni azriT, nato daTmobs ukrainasa da saqarTveloSi bazebis ganlagebis SesaZleblobas?
– gafarToebaze uaris Tqma da am ori saxelmwifosTvis karis Caketva natosTvis reputaciuli riskia, ris gamoc moerideba msgavsi gancxadebis gakeTebas, Tumca arsebobs sxva kompromisuli gzebi, romelzec SesaZloa, mxareebi wavidnen.
– ra gzebs gulisxmobT, magaliTad, ra SemTxvevaSi ityvis uars ukraina?
– magaliTad, ukrainaSi situacia unda mogvardes minskis SeTanxmebis gziT. am SemTxvevaSi donbasi miiRebs specialur statuss, TavisTavad, moiTxovs vetos uflebas ukrainis gadawyvetilebebze samxedro-politikur kavSirebSi gawerianebaze. amiT aRdgeba ukrainis teritoriuli mTlianoba, dabrundebian devnilebi usafrTxoebis garantiiT, donbasSi Catardeba axali adgilobrivi arCevnebi da eskalaciis es zona daubrundeba mSvidobian cxovrebas. es is modelia, romelic yvela mxares aZlevs imas, rac surs, yovel SemTxvevaSi, im minimums, rac am etapzea SesaZlebeli. mogexsenebaT, politika kompromisebis xelovnebaa, amitom 100%-iani gamarjvebuli aqedan, cxadia, veravin gamova. Sesabamisad, natos ar mouwevs xmamaRla gamoacxados, rom ar farTovdeba, SeinarCunebs saxes, prezidenti zelenski ki sakuTar xalxs moevlineba im politikur liderad, romelmac donbasi daabruna ukrainis iurisdiqciaSi. TavisTavad, ruseTic uzrunvelyofs sakuTar samxedro usafrTxoebas ukrainis mxridan, aseve, ukrainaSi ramdenime milioni prorusulad ganwyobili amomrCevlisac.
– Tqven fiqrobT, rom es yvelaferi am scenariT ganxorcieldeba?
– es logikuria, daaxloebiT aseTia Cemi politikuri molodini. dRes ukrainaze mimdinareobs ormxrivi zewola – rogorc evropidan, ise ruseTidan, sTxoven, Seasrulos minskis SeTanxmeba. ukraina am etapze gadawyvetilebebis miRebas ar Cqarobs, Tumca vfiqrob, ruseT-ukrainis uSualo dialogis dros es sakiTxi ufro dazustdeba, gamoikveTeba da, sabolood, daaxloebiT am sqemis realizaciis mowme gavxdebiT.
– politologTa nawili ambobs, rom ruseTs surs sabWoeTis aRdgena, nawili sapirispiros amtkicebs. Tqven ras fiqrobT?
– Cemi azriT, ruseTs sabWoTa kavSiris aRdgena gegmaSi ar aqvs. igi mxolod sakuTari perimetris usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofas apirebs, rac gulisxmobs, rom misi mosazRvre qveynebi anu yofili respublikebi ar unda gawevriandnen romelime samxedro aliansSi.
– Cveni gadmosaxedidan sul sxvagvarad Cans – maTi sazRvrebi daculia, magram Cven varT safrTxis qveS.
– diax, Cveni da ukrainis gadmosaxedidan ruseTis potenciuri agresia CvenTvisaa saSiSi. magaliTisTvis 2008 wlis omic gamodgeba, isev rom wagvarTva teritoriebi. amitom aqeT unda moviTxovoT garantiebi.
– amis SesaZlebloba arsebobs?
– ki, me vxedav amis Teoriul SesaZleblobebs. Tuki realizdeba ukrainis scenari donbasis dabrunebiT, analogiuri sqema SeiZleba ganxorcieldes saqarTveloSic, afxazeTis kuTxiT. es gulisxmobs devnilebis dabrunebas afxazeTSi usafrTxoebis garantiebiT, afxazebis da qarTvelebis saerTo saxelmwifo sivrcis Camoyalibebas neitraluri statusis avtomaturi miniWebiT. rusebi, cxadia, moiTxoven vetos uflebas saqarTvelos natoSi an sxva romelime samxedro aliansSi gawevrianebaze.
– amaze qarTvelebi daTanxmdebian?
– sxvaTa Soris, amerikulma karnegis centrma kvleva ukve Caatara am sakiTxze. saqarTvelos mosaxleoba Semdegnairad fiqrobs: Tuki sasworze daideba, erTi mxriv, dakarguli teritoriebis dabruneba da, meore mxriv, evroatlantikur struqturebSi gawevrianeba, mosaxleobis 78% irCevs teritoriebis dabrunebas, qveynis mTlianobis aRdgenas. gamokiTxulTa 7% ar aris Camoyalibebuli, xolo 13% evroatlantikur struqturebSi gawevrianebis momxrea. ai, aseTia sazogadoebis azri saqarTveloSi, rac, principSi, arc aris gasakviri.
– simarTle giTxraT, sakmaod saocari perspeqtiva dagvisaxeT.
– axla vakvirdebiT ukrainaSi am scenaris implimentacias, amitom ver gamovricxavT am SesaZleblobas. saerTod, msoflioSi mimdinareobs dekompleqtizaciis procesi. Cven vxedavT, rom aSS-ma jarebi gaiyvana siriidan, erayidan, avRaneTidan, ruseTma yarabaRis konfliqti TiTqos moagvara da mxareebi erTmaneTTan saubroben. ager, somxeTi esaubreba TurqeTs, romelsac istoriul mtrad aRiqvams da diplomatiuri urTierTobebic ki ar aqvs. ukrainaSi Zvrebia, moldova Camoyalibda rogorc neitraluri saxelmwifo da es konstituciaSi aqvs Cawerili. . . amitom TavisTavad Cndeba azri, rom didma moTamaSeebma gadawyvites, erTbaSad moagvaron gayinuli konfliqtebi regionebis dasamSvideblad.
– sxva didi moTamaSeebi Tu daTmoben sakuTar interesebs?
– axla saxeldeba potenciuri TanamSromlobis sxvadasxva formati – `sams+sami~, `sams+sams+sami~, `Savi zRvis auzis qveynebis kooperacia~ da a. S. romlebic ar gamoricxaven erTmaneTs, nebismier maTganSi saqarTvelos aqvs monawileobis saSualeba, magram mainc vfiqrob, saqarTvelosTvis yvelaze swori iqneba, izrunos samxreTkavkasiuri sameulis formatis – saqarTvelo, somxeTi, azerbaijani – Camoyalibebaze. mTavaria, samive SeTanxmdes regionis ganviTarebis koncefciaze, Tu gnebavT, Sromis ganawilebaze, saerTo usafrTxoebis Tu ekonomikur midgomebze. amis Semdeg SesaZlebeli gaxdeba gare interesebis garkvevac sameulis koleqtiuri gadmosaxedidan. aq SeiZleba arCevani SeCerdes `sams+samze~ an `sams+ sams+samze~ da sxva. Cven vxedavT, rom azerbaijani aris damoukidebeli saxelmwifo, saqarTvelo deklarirebulad miiswrafvis natosken, somxeTi ruseTis (ОДКБ)-s – koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis SeTanxmebis wevria. es yvelaferi sakmaod did daqsaqsulobas aCens samxreT kavkasiaSi da umjobesia, Cvenma qveynebma energia erTmaneTTan konkurenciaze, qiSpobasa da dapirispirebaze ki ar daxarjon, saerTo xedva Camoayalibon, iseTi, romelic samxreT kavkasias gadaaqcevs ganviTarebisa da keTildReobis mSvidobian zonad.
– es yvelaferi evrokavSirisken gzas ar gadagviketavs?
– evrokavSirSi Sesvla jer ar dgas dRis wesrigSi. am etapze arc gvTavazoben wevrobas. piriqiT, evrokavSiris prezidentma Sarl miSelma jer kidev SarSan ganacxada, rom saqarTvelo, SesaZloa, 25 wlis Semdeg miviRoTo. msgavsi Zalian Soreuli perspeqtivebi CvenTvis momxibvleli ar aris. mTavaria, vawarmooT suverenuli politika da Cvens uSualo mezoblebTan – azerbaijanTan da somxeTTan erTad CamovyalibdeT regionis momavalTan dakavSirebiT.
– rogor SeafasebT yazaxeTis movlenebs?
– yazaxeTSi Sida Zalauflebis gadanawileba daiwyo. axalma prezidentma yasim-JomarT Toyaevma Seaviwrova nursulTan nazarbaevis dajgufeba, sakvanZo Tanamdebobebidan daiTxova misi xalxi. Tavad nazarbaevma ki mouwoda mosaxleobas, mxari daeWira axali prezidentisTvis, romelsac aqvs sruli Zalaufleba. axla mimdinareobs qonebrivi sakiTxebis garkveva, radgan oligarqebis sakmaod didi wre warmoiqmna nazarbaevis mmarTvelobisas. am etapze Toyaevi cdilobs, yazaxeTis ganviTarebis fondis finansebi gazardos yazaxeTis elitis mier Tanxebis SetaniT.
– Tqven fiqrobT, rom aq ruseTi arafer SuaSia da mTeli es sisxlisRvra Sida garCevebia?
– cxadia, Sidaklanuri dapirispireba ruseTis gareSe ar daiwyeboda, scenari SeTanxmebuli eqnebodaT. swored amitom moaxdina ruseTma myisieri reagireba da gagzavna sajariso nawilebi situaciis stabilizaciisTvis.
– modiT, isev saqarTvelos davubrundeT. gvirCevT, evrokavSirSi Sesvlis Soreul perspeqtivaze aRar viocneboT da mezoblebs mivxedoT?
– ra Tqma unda, am etapze sameulis SeTanxmeba aris umniSvnelovanesi, Semdeg ki sxva, uSualo mezoblebTan dispozicia. viciT, rom ekonomikuri satranzito gzebis nawili dablokilia. magaliTad, ar muSaobs afxazeTis rkinigza, gadaketilia somxeT-azerbaijanis komunikacia, magram aris Zvrebic – gaCnda didi interesi, rom indoeTis, iranis, pakistanis tvirTebi wamovides saqarTveloze, Sav zRvaze, rac gazrdis baTumisa da foTis portebis tvirTbrunvas, romlebic dRes sanaxevrodac ar aris datvirTuli. es procesi gaaCens axal samuSao adgilebs. magaliTisTvis: indoeTis da evrokavSiris vaWroba dRes Seadgens 62 miliards, rac niSnavs, rom 60 milioni tvirTi midis orive mimarTulebiT. am tvirTis 10%-is wamoRebac ki saqarTvelosTvis udidesi Semosavalia – erTi tonis gatareba 10-20 aSS dolari jdeba, tvirTis saxeobas gaaCnia. es procesi Tu Sedga, igive afxazeTis rkinigzis amuSaveba Cven Soris politikur urTierTobebs gaaumjobesebs. rogorc qarTvelebi, ise afxazebi mixvdnen, rom am konfliqtebs kargi araferi moaqvs, rom cudi mSvidoba jobia karg oms. rac Seexeba saqarTvelos pozicionirebas, vfiqrob, azerbaijansa da somxeTTan erTad unda SevZloT sakiTxis ise dayeneba, rom Cveni teritoriebidan safrTxe aravis emuqrebodes. Sesabamisad, Tavadac viqnebiT daculi Cveni erebis ekonomikuri, socialuri da humanitaruli keTildReobis uzrunvelsayofad.
