უკრაინასთან დაკავშირებით ვითარების კიდევ უფრო დაძაბვასაც უნდა ველოდოთ
ლაშა ხომერიკი 593 50 82 69 –
postsabWoTa sivrceSi procesebi dramatulad viTardeba, ruseTi gavlenis sferoebis aRdgenas cdilobs da am mimarTebiT sxvadasxva destruqciul nabijs dgams, rasac ewireba ama Tu im saxelmwifos suvereniteti: saqarTvelo, ukraina da moldova amis TvalsaCino magaliTebia. amJamad msoflio Tanamegobrobis yuradRebis arealSi ukrainaa, mis sazRvarTan ruseTis asiaTasiani armiaa mobilizebuli, rac dasavleTis SeSfoTebas iwvevs. ukrainaSi itesteba dasavleTis principulobis xarisxi da Cndeba kiTxvebi: ra gegmebi aqvs kremls ukrainasTan mimarTebiT, agresiis SemTxvevaSi ras moimoqmedebs aSS da evrokavSiri, ra berketebi aqvs dasavleTs ruseTze zemoqmedebisTvis? am da sxva kiTxvebze amjerad baTumis saxelmwifo universitetis profesori, politologi laSa baJunaiSvili gvipasuxebs.
– batono laSa, vidre dasavleT-ruseTis garTulebul urTierTobaze, romelic amJamad ukrainas ukavSirdeba, visaubrebdeT, minda gkiTxoT: xom ar mimdinareobs msoflios xelaxali gadanawileba da ram ganapiroba es mocemuloba?
– vfiqrob, mimdinare procesebis msoflio gadanawilebad Sefaseba gadaWarbebulia. es ufro evroatlantikuri daZabulobis morigi fazaa, romelic ramdenime mniSvnelovani faqtoriT aris ganpirobebuli: 1. mtris xatis SeqmniT putini reJimis kidev ufro ganmtkicebas cdilobs. xelovnurad Seqmnili sagareo safrTxeebis pirdapirproporciulad izrdeba misi Zalaufleba da `velikoderJavuli~ ideebiT Sepyrobili sazogadoebis, romelic arcTu ise mcirea, mxardaWera, amasTan, kidev ufro uaresdeba demokratiis xarisxi (Tuki SeiZleba ase vuwodoT), adamianis uflebebis dacva da sityvis Tavisufleba. sxva SemTxvevaSi rTulia axsna kremlis amJamindeli reaqciebi – ratom gaaxsenda mas 2008 wels dadebuli piroba 2021 wels? ufro metic, am xnis ganmavlobaSi arc ukrainis da arc saqarTvelos mimarT Crdiloatlantikuri aliansis buqarestis samitze dapireba Seusrulebelia. simarTlec unda iTqvas, rom arc saqarTvelos amJamindeli xelisufleba gamoirCeva hiperaqtivobiT, rac wevrobisTvis sasicocxlod mniSvnelovania. aseve unda vaRiaroT, rom demokratia, kanonis uzenaesoba da ekonomikuri ganviTareba saqarTvelosa da ukrainisTvis evroatlantikuri integraciis gzaze kvlav aqilevsis quslia. rusuli politikuri elitac Zalian kargad xedavs natos zogierTi wevri qveynis nihilistur da xSirad uaryofiT damokidebulebas natos gafarToebasTan dakavSirebiT. Sesabamisad, mas konfliqtis eskalaciaze metad, diplomatiuri, politikuri da ekonomikuri berketebis gamoyeneba sWirdeba – xeli unda SeuSalos an Seaferxos aliansis gafarToeba kavkasiasa da aRmosavleT evropaSi. Tumca aRniSnuli krizisis SemTxvevaSi mizani, rogorc Cans, kardinalurad sxvaa, ukrainasTan konfliqtis eskalacia ki misi miRwevis erT-erTi saSualebaa. 2. ruseTs, romelic mezobeli saxelmwifoebis dapyrobis xarjze mudmivad buferuli zonebiT iyo SemosazRvruli, amJamad gavlenebi istoriul minimumade aqvs Semcirebuli. sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg qaosSi Caflulma ruseTma ver SeZlo evroatlantikuri struqturebis aRmosavleTiT gafarToebas win aRdgomoda (moskovma xelidan gauSva werilobiT daefiqsirebina SeerTebuli Statebis sityvieri dapireba, rom germaniis gaerTianebis sanacvlod nato `erT nabijsac ar gadadgamda aRmosavleTiT~). dasavleTidan garkveuli dividendebis sanacvlod Tavdapirvelad putinis reJimic egueboda aRniSnul mocemulobas. 2004-2007 wlebSi natosa da evrokavSiris yvelaze did gafarToebas moskovi susti protestiT Sexvda, radgan ekonomikurad jer kidev Zalian iyo damokidebuli dasavleTze. 2007 wlis Semdeg kremli moulodnelad Setevaze gadavida da liberaluri saerTaSoriso reJimi da misi arqiteqtorebi mkacrad gaakritika. putins ar surs ruseTis irgvliv demokratiuli saxelmwifoebis da dasavluri usafrTxoebis sistemebis arseboba. mezobeli saxelmwifoebis Tavisufali sagareo politikuri arCevani ruseTis erovnul usafrTxoebasTan SeuTavsebelia, amitom mas daundobeli brZola gamoucxada uxeSi Zalis gamoyenebiTac ki, 2008 da 2014 wlebis mezobeli saxelmwifoebis winaaRmdeg ganxorcielebuli agresia amis naTeli magaliTia.
– ruseTi ultimatums uyenebs dasavleTs natos argafarToebasTan dakavSirebiT, aSS da nato, bunebrivia, uaryofiTad Sexvdnen amas. movlenebis rogor ganviTarebas unda velodoT?
– rTulia movlenaTa ganviTarebis zusti prognozireba. es damokidebuli aris imazec, ra strategias airCevs orive mxare. moskovi natosa da SeerTebuli Statebisgan `karTagenis mSvidobas~ moiTxovs. kremlis moTxovnebze kompromisi dasavleTis mxridan, faqtobrivad, gamoricxulia. es moskovmac kargad icis, Tumca amjerad, vabankze wavida da Seecdeba, maqsimalurad gamostyuos garkveuli daTmobebi. dasavleli partniorebis azri orad aris gayofili. erTi nawili viTarebis deeskalaciis strategias uWers mxars, meore nawili ki piriqiT, deeskalaciis politikas akritikebs da amtkicebs, rom sisustis demonstrirebiT kremli kidev ufro Tamami gaxdeba. amitom aucilebelia, ruseTs im enaze (Zalis demonstrirebis) esaubron, romelic Zalian kargad esmis da romlis recepti cnobilma amerikelma diplomatma jorj kenanma kremls jer kidev 1940-ian wlebSi gamouwera. saubaria civi omis periodis e.w. sarkisebr strategiaze, rac ruseTis sapasuxod viTarebis pirdapirproporciul eskalacias, imavdroulad molaparakebebis sivrcis datovebasac gulisxmobs. gamocdileba gvaCvenebs, rom SesaZlebelia urCi mowinaaRmdege molaparakebis magidasTan konstruqciuli ganwyobebiT dasva. natos qveynebis gadawyvetilebiT, aliansi uaxloes momavalSi daiwyebs aRmosavleTis flangis gaZlierebas, kerZod, Sav zRvasa da aRmosavleT evropis qveynebSi samxedro-sazRvao, sahaero da saxmeleTo Zalebis sagangebo viTarebaSi gadmosrolas. am nabijiT, rogorc Cans, dasavleTs surs, aCvenos moskovs, rom samxedro TvalsazrisiTac ukan daxevas ar apirebs. vfiqrob, viTarebis kidev ufro eskalacias unda velodoT, maT Soris ruseTis mxridan samxedro moqmedebebis dawyebas. ar aris gamoricxuli, rom wina xazze elitur qvedanayofebs Soris ukve midiodes garkveuli xasiaTis sabrZolo moqmedebebi.
– TviT aSS-is prezidentmac ar gamoricxa ruseTis SeWra ukrainaSi da Tu es omi daiwyo, ra mizani eqneba ruseTs – ukrainis xelisuflebis Secvlas daapirebs, Tu garkveuli teritoriebis okupaciiT Semoifargleba?
– vfiqrob kremlis miznebSi orive Tanabrad Sedis. ufro metic, erTi meores gulisxmobs. kerZod, erTi mxriv, axlo samezobloSi gavlenebis ganmtkicebisTvis kremls aRar akmayofilebs mxolod meryevi prorusuli mTavrobebis an liderebis arseboba, is maT sityvas naklebad endoba da ufro mtkice garantiebi sWirdeba. igi mxolod rusul samxedro Zalaze amyarebs imedebs. amitom kvlav gaaaqtiura mezobeli saxelmwifoebis strategiulad mniSvnelovani teritoriebis okupaciis da aq samxedro bazebis ganTavsebis sakiTxi. ukrainasTan mimarTebaSi ikveTeba ruseTis cxoveli interesi – Savi zRvis sanapiroze totaluri kontrolis damyareba da masze istoriuli dominantobis SenarCuneba. meore mxriv, sadazvervo wyaroebi aseve saubroben kievSi prorusuli mTavrobis dasmis gegmaze, magram aseT SemTxvevaSic ki rusuli armia unda darCes am reJimis dasacavad, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi is didxans ver iarsebebs. es ki rusuli okupaciis gagrZelebas niSnavs, rasac ukrainelebi partizanuli omiT upasuxeben. ase Tu ise, ruseTs am konfliqtSi didi xniT Cafloba mouwevs.
– ruseTis mxridan agresiis SemTxvevaSi dasavleTi radikaluri ekonomikuri sanqciebis SemoRebas apirebs. adrindeli sanqciebi ramdenad efeqturi iyo ruseTis dasaSoSmineblad? Tu marTla dauwesda ruseTs jojoxeTuri sanqciebi, ra zarals miiRebs igi da ra SeiZleba sapasuxod kremlma moimoqmedos?
– mSvidobiani Sekavebis strategiaSi sanqciebs alternativa ar aqvs, Tumca isini arc ise efeqturia, gansakuTrebiT ruseTis SemTxvevaSi, rodesac mis energoresursebze, nedleulisa da gasaRebis bazrebze dasavluri kompaniebi sarfian mogebas iReben. Cven ar unda dagvaviwydes is garemoebac, rom evroatlantikur sanqciebs CineTi, irani da sxva didi qveynebi martivad gaemijneba. xangrZliv perspeqtivaSi aseve moiZebneba garkveuli gzebi dawesebul sanqciebs gverdi auaron. amitom sanqciebze TviT dasavleTSic did imedebs ar amyareben.
– ra meTodebi iqneba umjobesi ruseTis agresiis SesaCereblad?
– bunebrivia, ekonomikur da sxva saxis sanqciebs alternativa ar aqvs. xSirad vismenT aseve, sazogadoebis mxridan cinikur Sefasebas, TiTqos dasavleTs SeSfoTebis meti araferi SeuZlia, magram gasaTvaliswinebelia is garemoeba, rom verc nato da verc SeerTebuli Statebi pirdapir konfrontaciaSi ver Seva ruseTTan, radgan orive mxare birTvuli arsenaliT aris aRWurvili, es ki swored is detalia, rac maT mudmivi TviTSekavebis reJimSi amyofebs, radgan pinaze kacobriobis da zogadad, samyaros bedi devs. viTarebis simZimidan gamomdinare, amJamad dasavleTi safrTxeebis pirdapirproporciulad diplomatiur, samxedro da ekonomikur daxmarebas uwevs ukrainas, aanonsebs mkacr sanqciebs, romelic Segnebulad ar konkretdeba, raTa moulodnelobis efeqti ar dairRves, moskovma ver SeZlos prevenciuli zomebis gatareba, dasavleTi natos aRmosavleT flangze gaaZlierebs yvela saxis samxedro komponents. amJamad sxva alternativa ar arsebobs. demokratiul sazogadoebas ar surs omi da farTomasStabiani konfliqtis axali kerebi, gansakuTrebiT araprognozirebad da amasTan erTad masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRiT aRWurvil ruseTTan. ar unda dagvaviwydes, rom civi omis dros dasavleTis strategia arasdros yofila sabWoTa kavSirTan pirdapir SeiaraRebul konfrontaciaSi Sesvla. ssrk-is Sekavebisa da misi ganeitralebis strategiis mTavar sayrdens mis sust mxareebze mizanmimarTuli zemoqmedeba warmoadgenda. dRes ruseTsac igive susti mxareebi aqvs, romelze zemoqmedebac aucileblad moitans garkveul Sedegebs.
– praqtikulad, dasavleTi erTiania ruseTis destruqciul qmedebebTan dakavSirebiT, Tumca germaniis pozicia araerTgvarovania, ras fiqrobT?
– konfliqtis eskalaciis pirobebSi dasavleTis erTianoba yovelTvis ruseTis agresiuli impulsebis pirdapirproporciulad izrdeba. ar gamovricxav, rom zogierTi dasavleTevropuli qveynis politikuri elitisa da msxvili ekonomikuri aqtorisTvis ruseTTan gamWoli konfrontacia yvelaze arasasurveli scenari iyos, Tumca tradiciuli evroatlantikuri erTsulovnebis miRma gasvla maT prestiJs gamousworebel zians miayenebs. moskovisgan gansxvavebiT dasavleTSi saerTaSoriso avtoritets gansakuTrebulad ufrTxildebian. SegaxsenebT, rom aSS-is prezident baidenis erT-erT gamosvlaSi ruseTis mxridan ukrainaSi e.w. mcire SeWris daSvebasa da germaniis viceadmiralis Sonbahis gancxadebebze saerTaSoriso sazogadoebas mkveTrad kritikuli reaqcia hqonda. am ukanasknelma gadadgomis gadawyvetilebac ki miiRo, xolo oficialurma berlinma ganmarta, rom admiralis pozicia ar Seesabameboda germaniis respublikis pozicias.
– Seqmnil viTarebaSi eqspertebi saqarTvelosTvis xedaven rogorc safrTxeebs, aseve SesaZleblobebs da meti aqtiurobis aucilebelobas. . .
– mxolod im SesaZleblobas vxedav, rom ukrainaSi ruseTis Sekavebis mcdelobiT saqarTveloc mniSvnelovan dividendebs miiRebs, magram amisaTvis aucilebelia, xelisuflebam Sesabamisi zomebi miiRos, meti gaiRos da ufro mkafio mxardaWera daafiqsiros. konfliqtis eskalacia Cvens samezoblo sivrceSi, Savi zRvis regionSi, mokavSiris sazRvrebTan xdeba da, minimum, uxerxulia, rom mezobeli da mokavSire saxelmwifosTvis mxardaWeris gamocxadebaSi Soreuli qveynebi, magaliTad, espaneTi dagaswrebs. . . rogorc irkveva, premier-ministrs jerac ar daurekavs piradad ukraineli kolegisTvis da arc qarTuli delegacia Casula kievSi. mxolod saparlamento biuroze gakeTebuli gancxadeba, sagareo saqmeTa ministris mier tviterze gancxadebis gamoqveyneba da saparlamento rezoluciis miReba aseTi masSatabis krizisSi mxardaWrisTvis sakmarisi ar aris. . . vfiqrob, saqarTvelom ukve dakarga mxardaWeris mniSvnelovani resursi. . . bolo 9 wlis ganmavlobaSi Cvens aRmosavleTevropel partniorebs vaCveneT, rom ruseTTan e. w. daSoSminebis, misi argaRizianebis politika CvenTvis gacilebiT prioritetulia, vidre mokavSireebTan erTad mis winaaRmdeg ukompromiso brZola. garda amisa, ukrainasTan strategiul urTierTobebs viwro partikularistuli interesebiTac vazianebT. darwmunebuli var, rom nebismieri mwvave krizisis SemTxvevaSi TbilisSi oTxi prezidenti ki ara, arcerTi aRmosavleT evropis qveynis lideri aRar Camova, radgan am wlebis ganmavlobaSi arc Cvens xelisuflebas Seuwuxebia Tavi msgavsi xarisxis mxardaWeris gamoCeniT. samwuxarod, ruseTma SeZlo aRmosavleT evropis regionSi im araformaluri aliansis (poloneTi, baltiis qveynebi, ukraina, moldova da saqarTvelo) daSla, romelic mas udides diskomforts uqmnida.
– Tuki ukrainaSi ruseTma miaRwia Tavis geopolitikur miznebs (e. w. axali tipis sabWoTa kavSiris aRdgena), meore aucileblad saqarTvelo iqneba?
– ukrainaSi rusuli scenaris warmatebulad ganxorcielebis SemTxvevaSi, bunebrivia, Semdegi samizne saqarTvelo iqneba da amjerad saubari ara SemoTavazebebiT, aramed ultimatumebiT daiwyeba. rac Seexeba gancxadebebs sabWoTa kavSiris aRdgenaze, gadaWarbebulad mimaCnia. ruseTs amisTvis arc ekonomikuri resursi da arc ideologiuri iaraRi gaaCnia, xolo gareT ocdameerTe saukunea da ara 1920-iani wlebi. ufro marTebuli iqneba, Tu vityviT, rom samxedro muqarisa da uxeSi Zalis gamoyenebiT ruseTi aZlierebs tradiciul gavlenebs axlo samezobloSi. moskovSic kargad xvdebian, rom `didi ZalisTvis~ samxedro intervencia martivia, Tumca rogorc samxedro-politikur, ise diplomatiur WrilSi, mis gverdiT SedegebTan gamklaveba seriozul sirTuleebTan da riskebTanaa dakavSirebuli. martivi arc satelituri reJimebis ekonomikuri uzrunvelyofaa. yvelaferi es kolosalur finansebTan aris dakavSirebuli, rac ruseTisTvis metad rTuli tvirTi iqneba. faqtia, rom wlebis ganmavlobaSi gamalebulma SeiaraRebam, ideuri mokavSireebisTvis upirobo samxedro-ekonomikurma daxmarebam da avRaneTis omma sabWoTa ekonomika daasamara da misi daSla daaCqara. erTi SexedviT, putinis ruseTi jerjerobiT umklavdeba agresiuli sagareo politikisagan miRebul uaryofiT Sedegebs, qveynis SigniT mwvave kriziss moxerxebulad niRbavs, Tumca politikuri avanscenidan gasvlis Semdeg, misi memkvidreebi ver SeZleben am ritmiT moZraobas da aucileblad dadgeba ruseTis ukan daxevis kidev erTi faza.
