უკრაინა – დასავლეთისა და რუსეთის დაპირისპირების მორიგი მიზეზი
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ukraina omis zRvarzea da cxadia, es aRelvebs yvelas, visac ar surs 21-e saukuneSi iwvnios agresiis damangreveli Sedegebi. ruseT-ukrainis dapirispireba ra masStabebs miiRebs, rogoria arsebuli situacia da raa mosalodneli, am bolodroindelma movlenebma saqarTvelos winaSe ra gamowvevebi daayena? – es is kiTxvebia, axla yvelaze xSirad rom ismis. politolog gela iremaZes maTze pasuxebi vTxoveT.
– mTeli msoflios yuradReba ukrainiskenaa mipyrobili, dasavleli analitikosebi acxadeben, rom feTqebadsaSiSi viTarebaa Seqmnili. . .
– diax, evropaSi mimdinare procesebi Zalian aqtualuria da duRilis procesi ukrainasTan dakavSirebiT maqsimalurad gazrdilia, rac istoriuli faqtebidan gamomdinareobs.
– ras gulisxmobT?
– ukraina arcTu Soreul warsulSi warmoadgenda birTvul saxelmwifos, ukrainas Tavis droze sabediswero Secdomebi rom ar daeSva, arsebuli problema (okupirebuli donecki, aneqsirebuli yirimi da ruseTidan momdinare safrTxeebi) ar dadgeboda. aqedan gamomdinare, saerTaSoriso Tanamegobrobis da umeteswilad aSS-is poziciaa, rom kremls gaacnobierebinon, dasavleTi ar Seegueba ruseTis morig agresias ukrainis winaaRmdeg.
– Tqveni azriT, ramdenad mosalodnelia omis gaCaReba ukrainaSi da am mxriv ra mizans isaxavs moskovi?
– Sors var im mosazrebisgan, rom dRes ruseTi ukrainasTan pirdapir daiwyebs oms (Tumca misgan yvelaferia mosalodneli). Bbolo movlenebi magonebs periods, rodesac dasavleTi da sabWoTa kavSiri civi omis stadiaSi imyofebodnen. SesaZloa, moskovma maripulze miitanos ieriSi, anda e. w. doneckis respublikis damoukidebloba aRiaros. Aaseve, ar gamovricxav garkveul provokaciebs separatistul regionebSi.
– da mainc, Tu kremlma pirdapiri agresia ganaxorciela ukrainis mimarT, ramdenad principuli da Tanmimdevruli iqneba dasavleTi agresoris mimarT?
– dasavleTis pozicia cnobilia: samxedro TvalsazrisiT ar daexmareba ukrainas, anu sajariso nawilebs ar gagzavnis ukrainaSi. dasavleTi ufrTxildeba aswlovan stabilurobas, magram didi britaneTi, aSS, kanada samxedro arsenaliT ukrainas STambeWdavad exmarebian, amasTan dakavSirebiT saqmis kursSia media da saerTaSoriso Tanamegobroba. albaT naxeT gavrcelebuli kadrebi, Tu ra masStaburi SeiaraRebiT amarageben ukrainas, amiT garkveulwilad, ruseTsac ugzavnian mes-ijs. . .
– dasavleTi ruseTs omis SemTxvevaSi radikaluri sanqciebiTac daemuqra, ras fiqrobT?
– Tu ruseTma agresia ganaxorciela, dasavleTis nabijebi iqneba ufro mkacri, mtkice, rac gulisxmobs ruseTis dasjas navTobproduqtebTan, safinanso seqtorTan mimarTebiT, aseve rusuli transnacionaluri aqtivebis gayinvas, sxvadasxva rusi maRalCinosnis persona non gratad gamocxadebas da a. S. is sanqciebi, rac aqamde moqmedebda (romelic moskovs yirimis aneqsibs Sedegad dauwesda), omis SemTxvevaSi kidev ufro masStaburi gaxdeba. samomavlo sanqciebi ra saxes miiRebs, jer ar konkretdeba, raTa moskovi momzadebuli ar daxvdes. garda amisa, aranakleb mniSvnelovan garemoebaze msurs yuradRebis gamaxvileba: saerTaSoriso arenaze ruseTi sainformacio oms agebs, Tu gadavxedavT saerTaSoriso presas, ruseTi dRes CobJenSia Cayenebuli.
– kremli ultimatums uyenebs dasavleTs natos gafarToebasTan dakavSirebiT. ra SeiZleba mohyves amas?
_ dasavleTi mwvaved aRiqvams, ar Seegueba evropis centrSi okupacias, rac imis maniSnebelia, rom igi ruseTis mier gacxadebul gavlenis sferoebs ar aRiarebs. ra Tqma unda, dasavleTisTvis gamowvevaa ukraina-ruseTis konfliqti. kremli ultimatums uyenebs dasavleTs natos gafarToebasTan dakavSirebiT. Tu amaze daTanxmda aSS da zogadad, evropa, es, cxadia, dasavleTis kapitulaciad Sefasdeba, rasac iq acnobiereben.
– Tqven ukrainis xelisuflebis Secdomebi axseneT, Tumca es arc iyo gasakviri, miT ufro, rom am Secdomebis iniciatori garkveulwilad dasavleTi iyo. . .
– ukrainis pirvel prezidents rom ar moewera xeli budapeStis xelSekrulebisTvis, mas eqneboda birTvuli iaraRi, rac axla sxva garemos Seqmnida da aseve isic unda vTqvaT, rom aSS, safrangeTi da ruseTi ukrainis suverenitetis garantorebi iyvnen, magram es xelSekruleba daarRvia kremlma da yirimis aneqsia ganaxorciela. aqedan gamomdinare, aSS-s es pasuxismgebloba akisria da am mimarTulebiT Zalian seriozuli muSaobaa saWiro.
– ukrainasTan mimarTebiT ramdenad erTiania evropis pozicia?
– samwuxarod, evropis erTiani poziciis dafiqsireba ukrainasTan dakavSirebiT ar xdeba da Cven vxedavT, rom rigi evropeli maRalCinosnebi, samxedroebi (magaliTad, germaniaSi) garkveulwilad, ruseTis interesebs lobireben, igive yirimis aneqsiis sakiTxTan mimarTebiT, iTqva: droa vaRiaroT yirimi ruseTis SemadgenlobaSi da amis sanacvlod (ukrainis sasargeblod) ruseTs finansurad vazRvevinoTo, msgavsi gancxadebebis gamo amaswinaT Tanamdebobidan gadaayenes germaniis samxedro maRalCinosani.
– eqspertebi acxadeben, rom dasavleTma ukrainas miliardi dolaris SeiaraReba gadasca, rac praqtikulad natoSi ukrainis de faqto Sesvlas migvaniSnebs, Tqveni azri amis Sesaxeb?
– aseTi mosazreba Zalian gadaWarbebulia, ubralod, vityvi, rom samwuxarod, ukraina ar aris natos wevri da am mxriv aliansis 30 subieqtis Tanxmobaa saWiro, rac jerjerobiT gamoricxulia garkvel mizezTa gamo. mokled, natos wesdebidan gamomdinare, aliansis calkeuli wevrebi damoukideblad ver miiReben gadawyvetilebas, amisTvis aucilebelia erTsulovneba. ukraina, rogorc saqarTvelo, ar aris aliansis wevri, Tumca samomavlod nato aRmosavleTiT aucileblad gafarTovdeba. SegaxsenebT buqarestis natos samits, sadac iTqva, rom saqarTvelo da ukraina gaerTiandebian natoSi. es ar Sedis kremlis interesebSi da mis samxedro koncefciaSi xazgasmiTaa naTqvami, rom kavkasiaSi natos bazebis ganTavseba mis saxelmwifo interesebs azianebs.
– gavrcelebulia azri, ukrainis evrointegraciis procesi ruseTis agresias ganapirobebs.
– ruseTis agresiulobas ganapirobebs ara mxolod ukrainis (da aseve saqarTvelos) natoSi swrafva, aramed evrokavSirSi gawevrianebis mcdelobac, magaliTad, 2013 wels ukrainis evrokavSirTan daaxloebam ise gaaRiziana ruseTi, rom yirimi waglija, aseve, 2008 wels agresia ganaxorciela saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg, raTa nato aRmosavleTiT ar gafarToebuliyo. Tanac daakvirdiT, ruseTis mizania ara mxolod dapyrobili regionebidan gandevnos qarTuli mosaxleoba (rac ukve gaakeTa afxazeTsa da cxinvalis regionSi), aramed qarTuli kvali waSalos. es aris garusebis politikis gagrZeleba, amitom am mxriv ruseTze mudmivi zewola unda xorcieldebodes.
– ras ityviT ukrainasTan dakavSirebiT saqarTvelos xelisuflebis poziciaze?
– vfiqrob, saqarTvelos xelisuflebas mizanmimarTuli nabijebi aqvs gadadgmuli ukrainasTan mimarTebiT. Cveni sagareo uwyeba aris Tanmimdevruli, swori da am mxriv opoziciis Sefasebebi aramarTebulia. Zalian martivi kiTxva SeiZleba daisvas: ra saSualeba gaaCnia saqarTvelos gnebavT diplomatiis, gnebavT sxvadasxva mimarTulebebi rom zewola moaxdinos ambiciur ruseTze? situacias rom adekvaturad SevafasebT, davrwmundebiT, `arTuli mxridan Tanmimdevruli nabijebi idgmeba, rac ukrainis interesebSia.
– am fonze ruseTi saqarTvelos mniSvnelobas xom ar akninebs?
_ ara mgonia, ruseTma SeZlos saqarTvelos mniSvnelobis daknineba, radgan Cveni qveyana iseT zestrategiul regionSi mdebareobs, sadac ikveTeba zesaxelmwifoTa interesebi. aSS-is interesebSia, rom saqarTvelo gaxdes natos wevri, Tumca am mxriv gasatarebelia mniSvnelovani reformebi da amave dros qveynis SigniT ara mxolod politikuri stabiluroba unda iyos, aramed Zalauflebis balansic. aq aucileblad mniSvnelovania politikuri reformebis zedmiwevniT ganxorcieleba, es mTavari miTiTebaa, romelsac rogorc nato, ise evrokavSiri mogviwodeben da rCevebsac gvaZleven. mkiTxvels Sevaxseneb, rom nato ar aris mxolod samxedro organizacia, is aseve politikuri organizaciaa, rac TavisTavad gulisxmobs imas, rom saxelmwifom unda moaxerxos arsebuli politikuri sijansaRis, demokratiis zrda. amis saukeTeso saSualebaa qveynis parlamentSi Seiqmnas mravalpartiuli, politikuri paritetiT dakompleqtebuli parlamenti, anu koaliciuri mTavroba, amis Semdeg SesaZlebelia vifiqroT natoSi integraciis procesze.
– dabolos, stabiluri ganviTarebisTvis Cvenma qveyanam upirvelesad ra nabijebi unda gadadgas?
– dasavleTSi karga xania gaacnobieres, rom stabilurobisTvis aucileblia partiebs Soris SeTanxmeba sxvadasxva sakiTxTan dakavSirebiT. evrokavSirSi gaerTianebul qveynebSi revoluciuri gziT ar icvlebian xelisuflebebi, anu aravis epareba eWvi arCevnebis SedegebSi da tragediad ar aRiqvamen ama Tu im partiis gamarjvebas, radgan dasavleTSi demokratiuli sistema gamarTulad muSaobs, CvenTan ki, rogorc cnobilia, TiTqmis yvela xelisufleba (am mxriv 1990 da 2012 wlis arCevnebi gamonaklisi iyo) revoluciuri gziT Seicvala. analogiuri rom ar ganvmeordes saWiroa ZiriTad sakiTxebTan dakavSirebiT politikuri partiebis SeTanxmeba, am mxriv mniSvnelovan garemoebaze gavamaxvileb yuradRebas: Cvens geostrategiul regionSi aucileblia stabilurobis SenarCuneba, radgan arakeTilmsurvelebma, SesaZloa, Cveni areulobiT isargeblon. SegaxsenebT, rom swored saxelmwifo gadatrialebis Sedegad wagvglija moskovma afxazeTi (Semdeg samaCabloc), amitom saqarTvelosTvis zestrategiulia Sida stabiluroba. amgvari safrTxe namdvilad ar emuqrebaT evrokavSirSi Semaval saxelmwifoebs, amitom sjobs evropul ojaxSi gaerTianeba.
