სოსო მანჯავიძე: თუ პროვოკაციებს არ მოვაწყობთ, რუსეთი თავს არ აიტკივებს საქართველოს ოკუპაციით
მარიამ ხითარიშვილი: 27 48 93 –
ukraina-ruseTis konfliqtma piks miaRwia, politolog soso manjaviZis TqmiT, konfliqti an ukrainis mTavrobis daTmobaze wasvliT gadawydeba, an omi daiwyeba da sul sxva realobaSi gaviRviZebT. gTavazobT masTan intervius.
– batono soso, ra etapzea amJamad ruseT-ukrainis konfliqti?
– am etapze mimdinareobs `dazvervis TamaSebi~, rom moipovon kazus beli, anu omis sababi, misi gamarTleba – vis daerqmeva omis damwyebi, vin iqneba damnaSave. daaxloebiT iseTive situaciaa, rogoric Seiqmna saqarTvelo-ruseTis omis win, rodesac mimdinareobda igive TamaSebi da davmarcxdiT, Tan miviReT saSineli Sedegebi. kerZod, samxreT kavkasiidan gasuli ruseTis samxedro bazebi dagvibrunda ukan, ganadgurda Cveni soflebi, waiRes Cveni teritoriebi da saqarTvelom ganicada geopolitikuri devalvacia. imTaviTve cxadi iyo, rom ruseTi samxreT kavkasiaSi fexis amokveTas ar Seegueboda. Cveni mxridan mimdinareobda brZola, rom ruseTi sabolood gaZevebuliyo samxreT kavkasiidan. swored ase aRiqves ruseTSi `vardebis revolucia~ da is moqmedebebi, rac im periodSi ganxorcielda. geopolitikuri amocanebi unda ganvixiloT samarTlebriv, Zalovan da uamrav sxva aspeqtTan erTad. swored am amocanis gadawyvetas cdilobdnen maSin rusebi da, samwuxarod, Cvenma maSindelma idioturma politikam, arakompetenturobam, Ralatma is Sedegi gamoiRo, rac gvaqvs. ai, daaxloebiT igive situaciaa ukrainaSic. istoriulad identuri situaciebi ar arsebobs, magram sqema analogiuria. mimdinareobs informaciuli brZola, hibriduli omi rogorc saerTaSoriso sazogadoebis, aseve qveynis Sida samobilizacio sakiTxebis mosagebad, raTa dapirispirebuli mxareebidan erT-erTma moipovos upiratesoba. es Cans orive mxridan marSirebuli sainformacio kampaniebidanac.
– euTos misiis muSaobis yoveldRiur moxsenebaSi naTqvamia, rom doneckis regionSi dRis ganmavlobaSi cecxlis Sewyvetis reJimis 200-ze meti darRveva dafiqsirda, xolo luganskis olqSi – TiTqmis 700, raSic separatistebi da ukrainis armia erTmaneTs adanaSauleben.
– TviTon euToc sainteresod iqceva: faqtobrivad, uari Tqva minskis xelSekrulebiT gaTvaliswinebuli valdebulebebis darRvevis faqtebis monitoringze, iqidan gamoiyvana damkvirveblebi, rac mtyuan-marTlis garCevas SeuZlebels xdis. kidev erTxel davubrundebi 2008 wels – miunhenSi putinis sityvis warmoTqmis Semdeg, ruseTisTvis pirveli iyo msgavsi geopolitikuri nabiji. maSin pirvelad gamoaCina Zveli zne da klanWebi, Tumca gacilebiT met angariSs uwevda dasavleTs, vidre axla. aqedan gamomdinare, ruseTisTvis kritikulad mniSvnelovani iyo samarTlebrivi sakiTxebi, anu vin wamoiwyo omi. Tu gaxsovT sarkozis viziti Tbilissa da moskovSi? mas warudgines omze dakvirvebis obieqturi masalebi, romlebic zustad aRricxavda konfliqtis mimdinareobas. naTeli gaxda, rom ruseTma am sadazvervo brZolebSi – sainformacio omSi gaimarjva. taliavinis daskvnamac es daadastura.
– ukrainis mimarT ruseTi ufro Tavdajerebulad iqceva.
– diax, ruseTi imdenad moZlierda, aRar uwves angariSs dasavleTs, axla naklebad aris masze damokidebuli. 2014 wlis Semdeg misi ekonomika amoiqaCa. am mxriv sakmarisia iTqvas, rom saerTaSoriso valutaze – dolarze damokidebulebisgan Tavisufldeba, aseve didwilad gaTavisuflda aSS-is saxelmwifo saxazino valdebulebebisgan. misi saerTaSoriso rezervebi dReisaTvis 623 miliard aSS dolars Seadgens, rac misi istoriuli maqsimumia. aqve aRvniSnav, rom am rezervis mniSvnelovani wili oqros zodebia. oficialuri monacemebiT, ruseTs daaxloebiT 3 aTas tonamde oqros rezervi aqvs.
– Tu SeiZleba, ganmarteT saerTaSoriso rezervebis daniSnuleba.
– es aris ruseTis bankis gankargulebaSi arsebuli maRallikviduri saerTaSoriso aqtivebi, rac, magaliTad, saSualebas aZlevs, daafinansos sagadasaxado balansis deficiti intervenciebis meSveobiT, zemoqmedeba moaxdinos valutis kursze, mxari dauWiron ndobas rublis mimarT . . . bunebrivia, rodesac aseTi uzarmazari savaluto rezervebi gaqvs, ufro myar pozicias inarCuneb nebismieri konfliqtis dros.
– ruseTis Tavdacvis saministros informaciiT, ruseTSi gaimarTeba birTvuli wvrTnebi, ra drosac gauSveben balistikur da frTosan raketebs.
– sxvaTa Soris, es uprecedento wvrTnebia, daiwyeba triadis – sahaero, saxmeleTo da sazRvao Zalebis atomuri SeiaraRebis demonstracia. aq isicaa gasaTvaliswinebeli, rom CineTma yvela xidi dawva da erTmniSvnelovnad dauWira mxari ruseTs. ganacxada, rom ukrainis sakiTxi im SemTxvevaSi gadawydeba, Tu dasavleTi gaiTvaliswinebs da daakmayofilebs ruseTis SeSfoTebis mizezebs. Tu raze SeSfoTda ruseTi, es putinis naTqvamidan Cans. kerZod, nato unda dabrundes gafarToebamde arsebul, anu 1997 wlis sazRvrebSi. si Zinpinis da putinis Sexvedrebis Semdeg gasagebi iyo, rom CineTi aseT pozicias daiWerda. 20 Tebervals daixura olimpiuri TamaSebi CineTSi da ukve si Zinpini gamova iseTive ultimatumiT dasavleTis, konkretulad ki aSS-s mimarT, rogoriTac gamovida putini.
– mainc ra argumentacia aqvs koleqtiuri dasavleTis mimarT?
– ruseTi, CineTi, irani da sxva saxelmwifoebi emuqrebian aSS-s alternatiuli saerTaSoriso savaluto sistemis SeqmniT. garda amisa, ruseTisa da CineTis aliansi da atomuri triadis arseboba SeuZlebels xdis maTze zemoqmedebas, yovel SemTxvevaSi im berketebis gamoyenebas, rasac SeCveulia hegemoni saxelmwifo – amerikis SeerTebuli Statebi. ruseTis rezervebi ukve vaxseneT, aqve aRvniSnav maRal fasebs gazsa da navTobze, saidanac damatebiT miedineba didi Semosavlebi ruseTSi. aseve, iaraRiT vaWrobac kargad aawyo, marcvleulis importioridan gadaiqca umsxviles eqsportiorad . . . es yvelaferi imitom CamovTvale, rom gulubryvilobaa ifiqro, TiTqos ruseTze gaWris sanqciebi, romelsac dasavleTi iyenebs urCi saxelmwifoebis mimarT. is muqara, rom saerTaSoriso bankTaSorisi sistemidan amoricxavdnen ruseTs, uaryofilia TviTon evropaSi.
– germaniis Tavdacvis saministro acxadebs, rom natoSi, swrafi reagirebis danayofSi Tavis Zalebs srul mobilizaciaSi moiyvans. Tuki daiwyeba, apireben CaerTon omSi?
– ara, am etapze dasavleTis da ruseTis SeiaraRebuli dapirispireba warmoudgenelia. kidev vambob, ruseTi marto ar aris. maTi dajaxeba sruli sigiJe iqneba, radgan mxareebs SeuZliaT gaanadguron erTmaneTi, atomuri omis SemTxvevaSi ki gansakuTrebiT didi safrTxis qveS eqceva evropa da aSS. ruseTi uzarmazari saxmeleTo imperiaa, 17 075 400 km2 teritoriiT. ki, miiRebs did zarals, magram SesaZloa, ar ganadgurdes evropisa da aSS-sgan gansxvavebiT, miT umetes, rom axla Seqmnilia TermobirTvuli damangreveli Zalis iaraRi, romelsac ZaluZs planetis mospoba. RmerTma dagvifaros, am tipis TviTmkvlelobamde mivides kacobrioba. principSi, urTierTganadgurebis aSkara safrTxis miuxedavad, ruseT-dasavleTs Soris yoveldRiuri eskalacia ar Cerdeba. Tu gaviTvaliswinebT am bolos globalur politikaSi gamovlenil sigiJes da Sizofrenias, arsebuli viTareba ar gvaZlevs optimizmis safuZvels.
– aSS-ma daZaba viTareba, gaiyvana ukrainidan sakuTari moqalaqeebi, elCebi da isev aRvivebs konfliqts. ra unda qnas am situaciaSi ruseTis pirispir darCenilma ukrainam?
– samwuxarod, ukraina ar aris subieqti. misi politikuri klasi mTlianadaa damokidebuli dasavleTze. am konkretul viTarebaSi ukrainis mTavroba iqca marionetad. Tu omi daiwyo, qveynis politikuri elita Seasrulebs davalebas da gaiqceva, xalxia codo.
– ukrainis mimarT saqarTvelos mxardaWeraze guli stkiva opozicias, mitingebsac awyobs . . .
– da ra unda qnas saqarTvelom?! mitingebis mowyobis nacvlad, cota tvini daatanon mimdinare movlenebs. amerika da evropa, ukrainis mezoblebic ki, ver exmarebian samxedro ZalebiT. rogor warmoudgeniaT opoziciis liderebs Cveni mTavrobis moqmedeba, riTi davexmaroT?! es adamianebi saakaSvils warmoadgenen. swored maTi gauwonasworebeli, moRalateobrivi, afeqturi, utvino moqmedebebis Sedegad miviReT is, rom ager 30 kilometrSi arian rusi samxedroebi dabanakebuli.
– Tuki ukrainas daartya, saqarTveloSic Semoirbenen rusebio. winaaRmdegobis gawevas SevZlebT?
– saqarTvelo iseT dReSia, ruseTis konvenciuri Zalebis SemoWris SemTxvevaSi, organizebuli winaaRmdegobis gawevis aranairi Sansi ar gveqneba. amas azric ar aqvs. piradad me, ver warmomidgenia, rogor SevebrZolebiT ruseTis armias. SesaZloa, calkeuli dajgufebebiT SevebrZoloT, magram Sedegi mainc ar gveqneba.
– amis paralelurad, TurqeTi aWaras daikavebso, isic iTqva . . . – es ar aris gamoricxuli scenari, Tumca ruseTi amas ar dauSvebs. Tu Cven Zalian ar viaqtiurebT da provokaciebs ar movawyobT (natos saraketo sistemebis ganlagebaze Tu ar iqneba saubrebi), ruseTi saqarTveloSi ar Semova, anu ar aitkivebs Tavs Cveni qveynis okupaciiT. dRevandeli ruseTi ar aris sabWoTa kavSiri, erTian konteqstSi rom ganixilavdes kavSiris mosaxleobas da sakuTar Tavze iRebdes am xalxis socialur-ekonomikuri donis amaRlebas, amaSi finansebis daxarjvas. ruseTs Riad aqvs deklarirebuli, rom misi dRevandeli politika amas ar gulisxmobs.
– natom ganacxada, karebi Riaao, ras gulisxmobda?
– arafers, jer aravin arsad ar gviSvebs. natoSi Sesvlis perspeqtivas amtkiceben da amis sjeraT sxvadasxva tipis arasamTavroboebs, dasavleTis Rrmadmorwmune adamianebs da politikosebs. es gza wmindaTa wmindad gamoacxades da Caweres kidec konstituciaSi. zogierTi imasac acxadebs, `Cven imitom ar gvRebuloben natoSi, rom reformebi ar CavatareT~ . . . bulgareTsa da rumineTSi xom ras ambob, iseTi reformebi Catarda, rom germanias gaaswres . . .
– mainc, saiT unda gadavixaroT?
– aqeT jobia Tu iqiT? – aseTi msjeloba arapraqtikulia. mimdinare movlenebi unda aRviqvaT rogorc geopolitikuri procesi, sadac mxareebi moqmedeben TavianTi interesebis Sesabamisad. unda warmovidginoT vefxvebis brZola teritoriebisTvis da resursebisTvis. xom ar SeiZleba Tqva – erTi vefxvi kargia, meore cudia. geopolitikuri brZolis dros qveyana, romelic dominirebs, maqsimalurad cdilobs vasali qveynebis ganiaraRebas, raTa ver SeZlon gadanawilebaSi monawileoba ki ara, Tavis dacvac ki.
– TurqeTi da azerbaijani aaqtiureben samxedro TanamSromlobas – TurqeTis prezidentma rejeb Taif erdoRanma xeli moawera gankargulebas SuSis deklaraciis dadasturebis Sesaxeb . . .
– Cven geopolitikuri izolatoris funqcias vasrulebT ori samyaros, rusul-somxur-iranul RerZsa da didi Turanisken mimarTul, TurqeT-azerbaijanis RerZs Soris, sadac winaaRmdegobebic da TanamSromlobacaa, magram Cveni es datvirTva Zalas kargavs – Signidan ar gvaqvs impulsebi, romelic gaaZlierebda da gaafarTovebda saqarTvelos geopolitikur funqcias. bunebrivia, yvela mxare Tavisas cdilobs, miT umetes, am daZabulobis da geopolitikuri gadalagebis procesSi. TurqeTic da azerbaijanic gaaZliereben TavianT samxedro aqtivobas da moqmedebis koordinacias, aba, ras izamen.
– batono soso, vici, rom rTulia, magram mainc vcadoT prognozis gakeTeba – daiwyeba Tu ara omi ruseT-ukrainas Soris?
– ruseTsac da amerikasac TavianTi gegmebi aqvT, cdiloben mowinaaRmdegisTvis uares pirobebSi moxdes es geopolitikuri gadanawileba. axla nervebis omi mimdinareobs. imeds vitoveb, rom rusebi ar gaamwvaveben viTarebas omis dawyebis zRvramde.
– SesaZlebelia, rom daartyas?
– ki. ukrainaSi amJamad imxela isteriaa, rom ar iZleva movlenebis pragmatulad Sefasebis SesaZleblobas. samwuxarod, jer kidev aqvT saerTaSoriso mxardaWeris cru molodini. gaixseneT, ase viyaviT Cvenc . . . qveynis SigniT Zlierdeba dapirispireba prorusul da proevropul mosaxleobas Soris. axlaxan rusulenovan politikoss scemes. es ar iwvevs dadebiT emocias ukrainaSi mcxovreb rusebSi, romlebsac waarTves politikuri TviTgamoxatvis saSualeba. ase veRar gagrZeldeba, situacia unda ganimuxtos an omiT (omic sxvadasxva masStabisaa), an moulodneli politikuri SeTanxmebiT. procesebis dislokaciis wertils unda velodoT dRe-dReze. RmerTma nu qnas, msxvilmasStabiani omi daiwyos, Torem gaviRviZebT sul sxva realobaSi. mTlianad Seicvleba evropis politikuri landSafti, geopolitikuri, ekonomikuri situacia, umZimesi krizisi daiwyeba da SesaZloa, saerTaSoriso valutis (aSS dolaris) tragikul cvlilebasac moveswroT.
