რა იწვევს გეოპოლიტიკურ ცვლილებებს და როგორია პოლიტიკური ბრძოლის მეთოდები?
ანანო ტაბიძე 27 48 93 –
samwuxarod, ruseTma Tavisi muqara Seasrula da ukrainaSi omi daiwyo. yvelani vadevnebT Tvalyurs, ra xdeba msoflioSi. gansakuTrebiT aqtiuria socialuri qseli, sadac sxvebTan erTad saqarTvelos moqalaqeebic hkicxaven aSS-s, evropas, radgan mosaxleobis umravlesobisTvis ucnobia, ra iwvevs geopolitikur cvlilebebs da mizezebis Ziebisas pirovnebebis, qveynebis dadanaSaulebamde dadian
is, rac dRes xdeba, aris saerTaSoriso politikuri viTarebis Sedegi, politikuri brZolis meTodebi. am brZolas aqvs Tavisi kriteriumebi. Cndeba kiTxva, ram gamoiwvia es brZola? vidre am kiTxvas vupasuxebT, unda vicodeT, rom nebismier qveyanas aqvs Tavisi geopolitikuri simZlavreebi, romelic izomeba specialuri kriteriumebiT.
geopolitikuri simZlavreebis ZiriTadi kriteriumebia: mosaxleobis raodenoba, teritoria, ekonomika, samxedro Zala. maT safuZvelze yvela qveyanas eniWeba geopolitikuri simZlavre, romelTa mixedviT msoflioSi aris oTxi msoflio hegemonobisken mswrafi saxelmwifo. amasTan, arian regionuli liderobisTvis mswrafi – saSualo donis saxelmwifoebi. Aaseve, aris mesame tipis – patara saxelmwifoebi, romlebSic Sedis Cveni qveyana.
msoflio hegemonobisTvis iswrafvian Statebi, CineTi, ruseTi da evrokavSiri. danarCeni qveynebi an am oTx qveyanazea mibmuli, an maT Soris TamaSoben. magaliTad, TurqeTi Tu adre Statebis sateliti iyo, dRes ukve yvela qveyanasTan TamaSobs sakuTari interesebidan gamomdinare. hegemonobisTvis zemoT xsenebuli oTxi saxelmwifo im teritoriebs iTvisebs, romelTaTvisac ekonomikuri resursi da samxedro Zala hyofnis. SeiZleba msoflio daipyro, magram ver SeinarCuno. ekonomikuri SesaZleblobebia saWiro imaT sarCenad, viszec vrceldeba Seni gavlena. saqarTvelo dRes aris amerikis hegemonobis qveS da amisTvis raRacis gaReba Cvenc gviwevs, bunebrivia, Cvens qveyanaze SeerTebuli Statebi bevrs xarjavs da mas evrokavSiric exmareba.
risTvis sWirdeba
saqarTvelo aSS-s?
amerikas saqarTvelo Tavisi geopolitikuri mdebareobis gamo sWirdeba, raTa sakuTari interesebi gaataros regionSi, romelSic operirebs da cdilobs warmatebis miRwevas. rac Seexeba ruseTis SeWras ukrainaSi, dasagmobia, magram lanZRva iolia, es bavSvsac SeuZlia -…ruseTi okupantia! arc aravis uyvars is, magram adamianebma unda icodnen, ra udevs safuZvlad mis moqmedebas. sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg ruseTi Zalian dasustda da geopolitikur kumSvaze wavida. resursi aRar hyofnida, SeenarCunebina is qveynebi, romlebzec gavlena hqonda. mTeli 90-iani wlebi misi gavlenebi mcirdeboda am qveynebze, samagierod, Zlierdeboda Statebi da evrokavSiri, romlebic teritoriebs iTvisebdnen, radgan konkurenti dasustda da maTi simZlavreebi gaizarda. Sesabamisad, amas mohyva ZalTa axali gadajgufeba. aSS-s da evrokavSirs xisti Zalis gamoyeneba ar surdaT. marTalia, ruseTi dasustebuli iyo, magram mainc eSinodaT misi, radgan birTvuli saxelmwifo iyo. sityvierad dahpirdnen Statebi da evrokavSiris qveynebis liderebi ruseTs, rom Tuki sabWoTa kavSiri datovebda teritoriebs, isini natos ar gaafarToebdnen aRmosavleTiT. moralurad marTlebi iyvnen Statebic da evrokavSiric, radgan ruseTs dapyrobili hqonda poloneTi, ungreTi, CexeTi, iugoslavia, mTeli aRmosavleT evropa. sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg ukrainis teritoriaze uzarmazari atomuri SeiaraReba aRmoCnda, sididiT mesame – msoflioSi. amxela iaraRis koncentracia xels ar aZlevda arcerT moTamaSes. britaneTma, amerikam da ruseTma ukrainasTan xeli moaweres SeTanxmebas, romlis mixedviTac es iaraRi unda gaenadgurebina, samagierod es qveynebi iqneboda ukrainis teritoriuli mTlianobis da suverenitetis garanti. faqtia, rom Tavis droze putinisTvis micemuli sityvieri dapireba natos aRmosavleTiT argafarToebasTan dakavSirebiT ar Sesrulda. ruseTs uTxres, rom misi gavlenis sfero iqneboda yofili sabWoTa kavSiris qveynebi (baltiispireTis respublikebis garda), oRond maTTvis damoukidebloba mieniWebina da axali kavSiris forma moenaxa. ruseTma Seqmna dsT, romelic daafuZna yazaxeTma, ukrainam da ruseTma. saqarTvelo ar Sevida am gaerTianebaSi. maSin zviad gamsaxurdias Statebma miuTiTa – mdinaris sawinaaRmdego mimarTulebiT midixaro. gamsaxurdias pasuxic unda gvaxsovdes – mdinaris mimarTulebiT mxolod mkvdari Tevzebi moZraobeno. imis gamo, rom ver verkveodiT saerTaSoriso politikaSi, davkargeT afxazeTi da oseTi. arada, azerbaijani ise wynarad gamovida situaciidan, Tofi ar gausvria, xma ar amouRia.
ra moxda Semdeg?
2000-ian wlebSi putini modis da ruseTi iwyebs gaZlierebas. geopolitikuri kumSvac dasrulda da gadavida geopolitikur ganSladobaze. am procesSi konkurencia veRar gauwies konkurentebma, radgan msoflio ukve ara orpolusiani, aramed mravalpolusiani gaxda. amerikas 2000-iani wlebis Sua ricxvebamde erTpirovnuli hegemonoba hqonda. yvelaze Zlieri saxelmwifo iyo, romelic msoflios karnaxobda dRis wesrigs, xels cotaTi mxolod CineTi uSlida. orpolusianobac Seicvala, amerikelebs konkurentebi gamouCdnen, evrokavSirma seriozuli winaaRmdegobebi Seuqmna, aqeT TurqeTi jeosis wevri gaxda da Tavisufali curva daiwyo. amerika veRar gadawvda yvelafers da, Sesabamisad, mas konkurenti gamouCnda ruseTis saxiT. putini im gancxadebebs, rasac dRes akeTebs, aTi wlis winaT ver gaakeTebda, am sakiTxebze xmas ver amoiRebda. im qveynis xelisuflebam, romelic ruseTis mosazRvrea, es yvelaferi unda awon-dawonos. unda icode, rom midis ruseTis gavlenebis gafarToeba. ruseTi aramyari saxelmwifo iyo. am mravaleTnikur, multikulturul saxelmwifoSi rusebis raodenoba mcirdeba da sxva erovnebis warmomadgenelTa – izrdeba. ruseTs Crdilo kavkasiaSic problemebi aqvs. asze meti eri cxovrobs iq da yvela mimarTulebiT seriozuli sirTuleebia, maT Soris religiuri kuTxiTac. ruseTs ar unda natos bazebi mis sazRvrebTan axlos, radgan es mis daSlas niSnavs. magaliTad, natom rom saqarTveloSi bazebi ganalagos, es imas niSnavs, rom ramdenime wuTSi ruseTs raketebiT gaanadgureben. ukraina da saqarTvelo ruseTisTvis aris gadarCena. es qveynebi misTvis sasicocxlod mniSvnelovania, raTa mezoblad ar miiRos natos bazebi. dasavleTi natoSi ukrainis da saqarTvelos gawevrianebiT gadamwyvet upiratesobas miaRwevs, magram. . . roca Sen resursi ar gaqvs da 45-milionian ukrainas eubnebi, Sen midi da Cven cotaTi mxars dagiWerT, Senc `gawyobs~ da meco, daiwyes da maidani moawyves, romelic Statebis da evrokavSiris dafinansebuli iyo. moiyvanes xelisufleba, romelmac xistad Tqva, rom Tu manamde ukrainis konstituciaSi ewera neitraluri saxelmwifo, axla Caiwereba nato, ramac ruseTis gaRizianeba gamoiwvia da ukrainelebma miiRes yirimis okupacia da is procesebi, rac dRes midis.
saqarTveloSi SemoiWra
ruseTi saqarTveloSi ar SemoiWreboda, rom ara 2008 wlis buqarestis gadawyvetileba da dapireba, rom saqarTvelo gaxdeba natos wevri. marTalia, maSin mapi ar mogvces, magram omis winapiroba swored es iyo. mixeil saakaSvilic wamoego ruseTis ankess da miviReT ori rusuli samxedro baza saqarTveloSi. Aarada, 1999 wlis stambolis xelSekrulebiT, rusuli bazebi gaviyvaneT qveynidan. eduard SevardnaZem moaxerxa da gaiyvana rusuli bazebi da es simwriT miRweuli warmateba 2008 wels gaanula ruseTma. afxazeTSi sazRvao baza ganalaga, ZiriTadi sazRvao bazebi yirimSi aqvs. yirimis daTmoba ruseTisTvis daSlis tolfasia. saqarTvelo da ukraina erTi bedis saxelmwifoebia da es imis Sedegia, rom ruseTma geopolitikuri ganvrcobadoba daiwyo. lanZRva-gineba politika rom ar aris, cxadia. saWiroa moxerxebuloba, moqniloba, adekvaturoba. Cven, samwuxarod, ar viciT msoflio koniunqtura. erTxel Tu amovardebi, patara saxelmwifo xar da gaisrisebi.
CineTi
rac Seexeba CineTs, is yvelaze saintereso politikas eweva. aviTarebs ekonomikas da Statebs daaxloebiT 10-15 wlis SualedSi gauswrebs kidec. elodeba moments, rodesac erTpirovnuli lideroba eqneba msoflioSi. naklebad ereva saerTaSoriso politikaSi, tailandis problema aqvs mxolod. amerikelebs rusebis ar eSiniaT, eSiniaT Cinelebis da amis safuZveli aqvT – CineTi sabolood msoflioSi pirveli hegemoni iqneba.
evrokavSiri
am organizaciis Seqmna, marTlac, araerTi sikeTis momtani iyo, magram isic cxadia, rom daiwyo dezintegraciuli procesebi, rac gamoiwvia nacionalizmis gamwvavebam. Tu adre evropeloba iyo mTavari da ra mniSvneloba hqonda, vTqvaT, germaneli Tu iyavi, amJamad midis iseTi tendencia, rom evropul qveynebSi nacionalistebi imarjveben, memarcxene Zalebi, romlebic yuradRebas amaxvileben TavianTi qveynis da naciis interesebze. es gamoiwvia siriis konfliqtma, rodesac emigrantebi miawydnen evropas, rac bevr sirTules uqmniT, dezintegraciis mizezia isic, rom aRmosavleT evropa mcireSemosavliania, dasavleT evropa mdidaria da dotaciebiT arCens aRmosavleT evropas. Ees ukanaskneli ruseTis jibriT miierTes, Torem araferSi sWirdebodaT bulgareTi, CexeTi, poloneTi. inglisma oficialurad datova evrokavSiri, Tumca etapobrivad gadis, radgan aTasobiT xelSekrulebaze aqvs xeli mowerili. evrokavSiri sustdeba geopolitikuri aqtorebis gaZlierebis pirdapirproporciulad. praqtikulad, am etapze CineTi ar aqtiurobs da konkurencia midis amerikasa da ruseTs Soris. Cvennairi qveynebi cdiloben, yvelas eTamaSon Wadraki, raTa daabalanson geopolitikuri Zalebi. TamaSis kuTxiT badali ar gvyavs. saqarTvelo ram gadaarCina da moiyvana dRemde? gadarCenis formula Cveni mefeebis dabalansebuli politika iyo. isini did geopolitikur aqtorebs erTmaneTTan abalansebdnen da eTamaSebodnen. Tu geografiulad saSualeba gaqvs, eTamaSo, asec unda moiqce, rom gadarCe. yvela qveynis interesi Seni nacionaluri interesis gaTvaliswinebiT unda daakmayofilo, rom gadarCe. mogebisTvis konkurentuli garemos Seqmnaa aucilebeli. samxedro ZalebiT saqarTvelo verasdros mougebs verc TurqeTs, verc ruseTs, azerbaijans, romelsac navTobi, gazi aqvs da TurqeTic mis gverdiTaa, ise, rogorc somxeTis gverdiTaa ruseTi. praqtikulad, samezobloSi vercerT konfliqts samxedro ZaliT ver gadavwyvetT. rogor moviqceT? oTxive moTamaSe unda vaTamaSoT erTmaneTTan da Cven unda vabalansoT. SevardnaZis dros qveyana korufciaSi ixrCoboda, magram sagareo politikaSi mas badali ar hyavda. yvela saxelmwifos aTamaSebda. patara qveynis bedi esaa. man Cauyara qarTul saxelmwifos safuZveli, misi ZalisxmeviT, navTobsadeni, gazsadeni gadis dRes saqarTveloSi. riTi unda iyo saintereso patara qveyana? kurortebi yvela qveyanas aqvs, navTobi, gazi ar gvaqvs… SevardnaZem isargebla somxeTisa da azerbaijanis konfliqtiT da abreSumis gza gaiyvana. axla ukve amerikasa da evropas navTobsadenebis da gazsadenebis dacvis interesi aqvT.
`qarTuli ocnebis~ politika
xelisuflebaSi mosvlisas ra mocemuloba daxvda `qarTul ocnebas~? gaZlierebuli ruseTi, romelic geopolitikur ganvrcobadobazea gadasuli; wina xelisuflebis dros daSvebuli sagareo Secdomebi, ramac gamoiwvia afxazeTisa da oseTis okupacia; gaZlierebuli da damoukideblad moTamaSe TurqeTi; aseve, gaZlierebuli azerbaijani da urTulesi geopolitikuri viTareba. erTaderTi, rac `qarTulma ocnebam~ miznad daisaxa da sworad gaTvala, aris is, rom daiwyo ruseTis argaRizianebis politika, agresiuli ritorika, lanZRva Searbila. Ggasagebia, rom es mosaxleobis, qarTveli xalxis gamoZaxili araa, magram mixvda, rom agresiuli politika wiTeli naWris friali iqneboda. amis paralelurad, natosTan da evrokavSirTan integracia daiwyo im doziT da formiT, ra resursi da ra siCqareebis akrefa SegviZlia. asocirebis xelSekrulebas moewera xeli 2014 wels da praqtikulad, erTi mxriv, mivdivarT dasavluri integraciisken, magram aRar vyviriT, ruseTs ar vaRizianebT da es dasavleTTan integraciis saSualebas gvaZlevs. ruseTs saqarTvelos evrokavSirSi gawevrianebis sakiTxi ise ar aRelvebs, rogorc natoSi, radgan evrokavSirTan konkurenciaSi igi yovelTvis imarjvebs. mas aRizianebs nato. Cven savaWro Tema aRar gvaqvs. ar gavwevriandebiT natoSi Tu dagvibrunebT cxinvals – es ukve sakmarisi araa, radgan im teritoriebze samxedro bazebi aqvs ruseTs da icis, amerikelebi ar Semovlen, sanam Tbilisidan 25 kilometrSi samxedro bazaa. erTaderTi, rac ruseTs ainteresebs isaa, rom saqarTvelo natoSi ar gawevriandes, radgan amiT mainc xedavs Tavis bazebze safrTxes. erTaderTi rasac iTxovs araagresiulad da Txovs ara saqarTvelos, aramedDamerikelebs da evropelebs, esa saqarTvelos natoSi argawevrianeba. isini pasuxoben, rom es damoukidebeli qveynis arCevania da masze ver vimoqmedebTo. aq midis xelis gadagrexis politika, ruseTi Riziandeba, magram ar aqvs sakmarisi sababi da safuZveli Cveni okupacia moaxdinos. es aris saerTaSoriso politika, rac ar ician da arc ainteresebT im adamianebs, romlebic socialur qselebSi lanZRva-ginebiT arian dakavebulebi.
raoden mtkivneulic unda iyos, Cven natoSi ver gavwevriandebiT, viTanamSromlebT masTan, magram grantebs vinc iRebs, imaT unda iyviron, rom natoSi gavwevriandebiT. verc natoSi gavwevriandebiT da verc evrokavSirSi… aqve ibadeba kiTxva, maSin ra gvamoZravebs? maTTan TanamSromlobac misaRebia CvenTvis, radgan mdidari qveynebia, gvexmarebian finansurad, demokratias aviTareben, nato gvexmareba SeiaraRebuli Zalebis gaZlierebaSi, amitom maTTan urTierTobac xelsayrelia CvenTvis, Tumca, isic viciT, rom ver gavwevriandebiT.
