გველოდება თუ არა ეკონომიკური კრიზისი?
ირმა ცეცხლაძე 27 48 93 –
saqarTvelo ekonomikuri krizisis winaSe aRmoCnda ruseT-ukrainis omis gamo. ruseTze dakisrebuli sanqciebis gaTvaliswinebiT da Cveni ZiriTadi partniori qveynis ngreva-ganadgurebis fonze, rTul viTarebaSi aRmovCndiT. ormagdeba fasebi produqtebze. saqarTveloSi Semosuli rusebis didi nakadi iwvevs gaZvirebas da panikas adgilobriv mosaxleobaSi. elodebian fasebis mkveTr matebas energomatareblebzec, rac, isev da isev, qarTul ekonomikas daartyams.
am sakiTxze gTavazobT ekonomikis eqspertis, profesor lado papavas mosazrebas:
– dRevandeli gadasaxedidan ver getyviT, rom ruseTSi mimdinare savaluto-finansuri krizisis (romelic aucileblad gadaizrdeba ekonomikur krizisSi) fonze saqarTveloSi 2022 wels ekonomikuri krizisi daiwyeba, Tumca danamdvilebiT SeiZleba iTqvas, rom qveyanaSi ekonomikuri zrdis maRali tempis SenarCuneba aSkarad gaWirdeba. ruseTi saqarTvelos nomer pirveli savaWro partniori 1998 wlis ruseTis savaluto krizisamde iyo, romlis Semdeg mas pirvelobaSi TurqeTi `ecileboda~. pirvel-meore adgilebze am qveynebis monacvleoba gagrZelda 2006 wels saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg moskovis mier sasursaTo akrZalvebis SemoRebamde. dReisaTvis, ruseTi saqarTvelos sagareo-savaWro partniorebs Soris meore adgilzea. Zneli saTqmelia, rom rusul bazrebze qarTuli produqciis dabruneba Secdoma iyo. Cemi azriT, Secdoma is iyo, rom aqcenti mxolod am dabrunebaze keTdeboda, radganac rusul bazarze xarisxis moTxovna bevrad ufro dabalia, vidre es evrostandartebiTaa gaTvaliswinebuli. faqtia, rom ruseTSi ukve daiwyo savaluto krizisi da, rublis naxtomiseburi gaufasurebis fonze, ruseTis bazrebze saqarTvelodan produqciis Setana yovelgvar azrs kargavs. Tanac, moskovma akrZala savaluto gadaricxvebi, rac ruseTSi miRebuli Semosavlebis repatriacias ucxo qveynis biznesmenebisTvis SeuZlebels xdis. imave mizeziT SeuZlebeli gaxdeba ruseTidan saqarTveloSi fuladi gzavnilebis ganxorcieleba. marTalia, bolo periodSi fuladi gzavnilebis jamur odenobaSi ruseTis wili 15-dan 20 procentamde (SedarebisTvis: 2008 wels es maCvenebeli, sul cota, 3-jer meti iyo) meryeobda, magram es mainc didi odenobaa. gasaTvaliswinebelia agreTve ruseTidan da ukrainidan turistuli nakadebis Semcirebac, yovelive es ki aisaxeba qveyanaSi ucxouri valutis Semodinebaze, rac agrerigad mniSvnelovania laris stabilurobisTvis. 2021 weli saqarTvelos ekonomikisTvis unda CaiTvalos warmatebulad, radganac jer kidev pandemiis pirobebSi saqarTvelos mTavrobam miaRwia saqarTvelos ekonomikis 10,5-procentian zrdas.
winaswari monacemebiT, saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis moculobam 2021 wels 1152,8 mln aSS dolari Seadgina, rac orjer metia 2020 wlis dazustebul monacemebze.
statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris monacemebiT, zrda ganpirobebulia pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis samive komponentis (saaqcio kapitali, reinvesticia da savalo valdebulebebi) maCveneblis gazrdiT. 2021 wels reinvesticiis wilma mTliani pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis 66 procenti Seadgina.
amasTan, saqstatis cnobiT, yvelaze didi moculobis pirdapiri ucxouri investicia safinanso seqtorSi ganxorcielda da 443,3 mln aSS dolari Seadgina, rac mTliani pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis 38,5 procentia. meore adgilze imyofeba garTobis, dasvenebis da sxva saxis momsaxurebis seqtori 230,5 mln aSS dolariT, xolo mesameze – energetikis seqtori, 157 mln aSS dolariT. aRsaniSnavia isic, rom ama wlis pirveli maisidan ipoTekuri sesxis gacemis wesi icvleba.
ras gulisxmobs cvlilebebi da rogor aisaxeba is momxmarebelze, ganmarta sabanko asociaciis xelmZRvanelma aleqsandre ZnelaZem:
– cvlilebebi, ZiriTadad, saSualo Semosavlis mqone pirebs SeexebaT, radgan maTi didi nawili sesxs veRar aiRebs. finansuri stabilurobis komitetma gasul kviras miiRo ori gadawyvetileba. pirvel SemTxvevaSi, Semosavlis yovelTviur gadasaxdelTan cvlileba pirebisTvis, romlebsac 1000-dan 1500 laramde aqvT Semosavali. es warmoadgens samomxmareblo sesxebis daaxloebiT 25%-s. realurad, aRniSnuli cvlileba am segments Seexeba da an SeizRudeba damatebiTi sesxis aReba, an SeumcirdebaT Tanxa, romlis aRebac SeeZlebaT. meore aris saprocento ganakveTis Sokis gaTvaliswineba. saubaria, 3%-ian Sokze. exeba cvlad ganakveTian sesxebs, romelTa didi nawilic ipoTekuri sesxebia, romelic refinansirebazea mibmuli. aRniSnul sesxebze saubaria Sedegze, Tu, magaliTisTvis, Tqven iRebT sesxs 7%-Si 10 wlis vadiT, Tqveni yovelTviuri gadasaxdeli gadaiTvleba da gamogivaT 100 lari gadasaxdeli. am SemTxvevaSi yovelTviuri gadasaxdeli angariSdeba 10%-ze, anu cvlad ganakveTian sesxze. realurad, 10%-Si gadaiTvleba dReis mdgomareobiT, larSi sakmaod maRalia saprocento ganakveTi da aRniSnuli Sokis gaTvaliswineba, Tan Semosavlis koeficientic sakmaod maRalia. amitom, larSi moaxdens efeqts, Tumca didad ara, es iqneba Zalian mcire nawili. rac Seexeba ucxour valutas, bevrad naklebia Semosavlis koeficienti. meore sakiTxi – 15 wlidan 10 wlamde SeizRuda ipoTekuri sesxebis dro da es gadawyvetileba niSnavs, kidev ufro gamkacrebas. praqtikulad, yvela am gadawyvetilebiT didi raodenobiT adamianebi, romlebsac survili hqondaT sesxi aeRoT ucxour valutaSi, es SesaZlebloba SeezRudebaT, an imdenad mcire Tanxas miiReben, rom SeiZleba sainteresoc aRar iyos. yvelaze metad es Seexeba saSualo Semosavlis pirebs.
bankebis asociaciis xelmZRvaneli ganmartavs, rom es arcerT SemTxvevaSi ar Seexeba saprocento ganakveTs:
– es ar aris kavSirSi saprocento ganakveTis zrdasTan. simulacias vakeTebT, viTvliT, viTom gazrdilia 3%-iT, anu, 3%-iT meti rom momeca, ramdens gadaixdidi. ubralod, momxmareblis bevrad naklebi raodenoba miiRebs sesxs, vidre am regulaciamde SeeZloT. seb-is gancxadebiT, aRniSnuli 3%-iT Seamcirebs sesxebis moculobas. axla, dRevandel Sokur mdgomareobaSi, amis daangariSeba rTulia. omis gamo, 2021 welze ufro dabal aqtivobasac velodebiT, gansakuTrebiT – samomxmareblo mimarTulebiT.
SegaxsenebT, seb-is cnobiT, es cvlilebebi, romelTa mizani msesxebeli fizikuri pirebis Sokis Sewovis unaris SenarCunebaa, xels Seuwyobs finansur stabilurobas da TanxvedraSia Ffsep-is rekomendaciebTan.
