მამუკა არეშიძე: ექსპერტთა რჩევა არ გაითვალისწინა ოფიციალურმა მოსკოვმა და თავი ხაფანგში შეყო
მარიამ ხითარიშვილი: 27 48 93 –
gTavazobT intervius analitikos mamuka areSiZesTan.
– ukraina-ruseTis omSi romel mxares aqvs upiratesoba am etapze?
– dRevandeli gadasaxedidan Cans, rom ukraina ver igebs, ruseTi ki ar agebs. amJamad aseTia mocemuloba, Tumca am sityvebis ukan imaleba uamravi msxverpli, uzarmazari materialuri Tu saxelmwifo danakargebi. ukve kargad gamoCnda, rom ukrainelebma SeuZlebeli SeZles, is, rac aqamde veravin gaakeTa. amJamad isini ibrZvian yvelasTvis. aq ruseTTan Tanabar brZolaze ar aris laparaki – vgulisxmob eris gaerTianebas. aqve aRvniSnav, rom ukrainelebs Tu rame gaaerTianebda, piradad me da am procesis bevr damkvirvebels, verc ki warmogvedgina. kargad vicnob ukrainelebs da vici sazogadoebaSi arsebuli politikur-klanuri winaaRmdegobebi. Zalian mokle droSi moaxerxes ukrainelebma, SeeqmnaT egreT wodebuli saxelmwifo nacionalizmi, romelic Zalian mniSvnelovania da bevrad maRla dgas eTnikur nacionalizmze. es seriozuli gamowvevaa mTeli msofliosTvis, praqtikulad, axali narativia da evropa yuradRebiT unda moekidos imas, rac ukrainaSi xdeba – ukraineli xalxis konsolidacias vgulisxmob.
– yuradRebiTac eqceva koleqtiuri dasavleTi ukrainelebs da mxurvale ovaciebsac ar aklebs, Tumca jer kidev ver Tu ar moxerxda cis Caketva, ris gamoc mSvidobiani mosaxleoba iRupeba.
– ase zedapirulad mainc nu vilaparakebT. marTalia, dasavleTs cocxali TaviT ar unda gamosvla komfortis zonidan, rac iqauri mosaxleobisTvis Zalian rTulia, magram arc is unda daviviwyoT, rom dasavleTis sazogadoebam Secvala damokidebuleba, midgomebi. sakuTari xelisuflebebisgan aqtiurad da kategoriulad iTxovs, daexmaros ukrainas, radgan igive sazogadoebis da politikuri elitis nawili mixvda – Semdegi Tavad iqneba. modiT, civi gonebiT SevxedoT yvelafer amas. rigiT evropels, romelic cxovrobs sadRac espaneTSi an Tundac – avstriaSi, urCevnia, ukrainaSi damTavrdes ruseTi, vidre iq gaimarjvos da mere maT miadges. samwuxarod, es aris Tanamedrove politikuri cinizmi anu Tavad politikaa cinikuri. msgavsi midgoma pragmatulad iTvleba dRes da amitom ar mikvirs, rodesac am teqstebs aJRereben dasavleli politikosebi. es erTi da meore is, rom `SeSfoTeba-aRSfoTebas~ gamoxataven tribunebze, praqtikulad ki yvelafers akeTeben ukrainis samxedro potencialis gasaZliereblad.
– ki, magram isic faqtia, rom ukrainis jaris resursebi – rogorc moraluri, ise samxedro, iwureba maSin, rodesac ruseTi axal Zalebs awvdis sakuTar armias.
– praqtikulad, am etapze, ukrainas aqvs SesaZlebloba, 500 aTasi meomari SeaiaraRos. marTalia, es ar aris klasikurad gawvrTnili jari, magram momzadebulia Sesabamisi brZolisTvis, Seudarebelia mobilurobiT, SemarTebiT da, rac mTavaria, suliskveTebiT, anu dRes evropam aRmoaCina, rom ukrainuli armia yvelaze Zlieria potenciurad, radgan sworadaa gawvrTnili, awarmoeben ara frontalur, aramed Semxvedr brZolebs (aseTi terminia), didi jgufebiT anadgureben mters. ukrainelebis taqtika ruseTisTvisac moulodneli iyo, amitom doneckis da luganskis olqebis sruli okupaciac ver moaxerxes – iq axlac mimdinareobs brZolebi, iseve rogorc mTeli ukrainis teritoriaze – samxreTiT, centralur nawilSi da CrdiloeTiT. omebis istoriis mixedviT viciT, rom dampyrobeli ikavebs raRac sivrces, qalaqebs da miiwevs centrisken – dedaqalaqis dasapyrobad. principSi, ruseTma vercerTi mniSvnelovani qalaqi ver aiRo, xersons Tu ar CavTvliT.
– mariupolSic xom Sevidnen?
– Sevidnen, magram bolomde ver daipyres.
– eqspertTa nawili Tvlis, rom zelenskim ukrainis teritoria natos da ruseTis omis poligonad aqcia da sakuTari xalxi gawira.
– amaze rusi eqspertebis azric SemiZlia SemogageboT – ukrainis teritoria ruseTma gamoiyena dasavleTTan dapirispirebisTvis. egona, Sedegs swrafad miiRebda, magram ver miiRo. general gerasimovis gegma aRmoCnda kraxis tolfasi da ruseTi wiravs materialur, samxedro da adamianur resursebs dasavleTTan uazro brZolas.
– modiT, yvelaze cudi scenari warmovidginoT – ruseTma gaimarjva . . . dasavleTis sanqciebi moexsneba?
– modiT, ase vTqvaT: gamarjvebulic ki, ruseTi ekonomikurad damarcxebuli iqneba.
– da rad uRirs gamarjveba?
– ukan dasaxevi gza Tavad putinma moiWra. saRad moazrovne rusi eqspertebis nawili, vinc ukrainaSi SeWris momxre iyo, ambobda: ar Rirs, gavcdeT doneckisa da luganskis olqebs. ar uSvebdnen oms ukrainasTan, maqsimum, Tu SevuxvevT, mariupoli-odesiskeno. davaneboT Tavi xarkovs, kievs, danarCen yvelafers. mTavaria, am olqebis (doneckis da luganskis) `teritoriuli mTlianobis~ aRdgena. Tu aucilebeli darCa, samxreTisken gaviWraT, buferi SevqmnaT yirimis naxevarkunZulsa da centralur ukrainas Soris. eqspertTa es rCeva ar gaiTvaliswina oficialurma moskovma da Tavi xafangSi Seyo. marTla xafangia, gamarjvebis SemTxvevaSic ki mZime dartyma miadgeba ruseTs. aq erTi mniSvnelovani faqtoria: mxolod ekonomikis vardnaze ar aris saubari, unda gaviTvaliswinoT fsiqologiuri faqtoric. ruseTSi didi gavleniT sargebloben marTlmadidebeli organizaciis wevrebi. maT Soris arian Zalian mdidari adamianebi – `rubliovkis~ mcxovreblebi. maTTvis didi datvirTva aqvs ruseTis Zlierebas da gamarjvebas, magram absoluturad miuRebelia kievis – maTi civilizaciis da ideologiis sawyisis dabombva. Cvenamde ar modis is winaaRmdegobebi, rac xdeba moskovsa da mTel ruseTSi kievis dabombvis gamo. saqme iqamde mivida, rom kremlis erT-erT cnobil Cinovniks sila gaawna amaTma warmomadgenelma – erTi bombic rom Camovardes kievis da peCoris lavraSi, damTavrebulia Tqveni saqmeo. amiT imis Tqma minda, Cven Soridan vxedavT, vafasebT, gvesmis, sinamdvileSi rogorc moskovSi, ise kievSi mniSvnelovani qveda dinebebia. samxedroebsa da zelenskis Soris iyo sakmaod seriozuli uTanxmoeba mariupolTan dakavSirebiT. aq ar minda frCxilebi gavxsna, magram maqvs informacia, romlis fragmentebsac geubnebiT. anu ise martivad ar dgas saqme, rogorc Cans, rom `isini~ erTad arian, meore mxare konsolidirebulia, evropa `SeSfoTebas~ gamoxatavs da ase Semdeg. igive evropam imdeni iaraRi miawoda ukrainas, iqauri mebrZolebi meubnebian – sad waviRoT, ar viciTo.
– cocxali Zala?.. sazarbazne xorcad iyeneben ukrainelebso . . .
– cocxali ZaliTac eSvelebian dasavleTis qveynebi. imdenia Casuli, verc ki warmoidgenT, marTlac didi cifri SemiZlia dagisaxeloT. marTalia, amaTi nawili ukanve gamoiqca, radgan urTulesi brZolebi yofila, magram is 7-8-12 aTasi kaci, romelic sxvadasxva samxedro formirebidan darCa (moxaliseebi an rac gindaT, is daarqviT), uaRresad seriozuli Zalaa. Cveni ori samxedro rom daiRupa, Tu miaqcieT yuradReba, iqve frangic daiWra . . . is frangi ar iyo rigiTi mebrZoli, magram ar minda am Temaze saubris gagrZeleba.
– mTel am situaciaSi ra gvemuqreba Cven? damarcxdeba Tu gaimarjvebs, ruseTi mainc `gamogvivliso~ .
– moskovSi aseTi ganwyobaa: sadac viwroa, iq gawydes, anu radgan mainc diskreditirebuli varT, modiT, barem saqarTveloc da moldovac mivayoloTo. is, rom mTeli postsabWoTa sivrcis mowyveta undodaT, baltiispireTis garda, es gamoCnda kidec, gaxsovT, rogor `dauwva~ lukaSenko uceb, an rogor Cafrinda alievi da saswrafod moawera xelSekrulebas xeli? informirebuli iyvnen da icodnen, ruseTi ras apirebda. Tavisi logikiT, saqarTvelos xelisuflebis pozicia absoluturad sworia, magram gamoxatvis formasTan dakavSirebiT maqvs seriozuli SeniSvnebi da amazec ar minda didxans laparaki. saWiroa imaze bevrad moqnili, diplomatiuri midgomebi, vidre samTavrobo tribunebidan ismis. aq sifrTxilea mniSvnelovani, iseTi momentia, SeiZleba gailanZRo, magram sabolood istoria gansjis, vin iyo marTali da vin – mtyuani.
– mTavrobis sifrTxiles da gonivrul pozicias bevri aRniSnavs.
– ki, magram azris gamoxatvis analogiuri formac unda gamoiyeno, ar Tqva iseTi ram, Tavad rom SegiSlis xels partniorebsa da megobrebTan urTierTobaSi. Sinaarsi erTia, forma – sxva.
– ruseT-ukrainis SeTanxmeba saiT midis, ras moiTxoven mxareebi?
– saqme marTlac SeTanxmebamde midis. ukrainam ukve gaamJRavna, rom Tanaxmaa neitralitetze, oRond seriozuli garantiebiT. anu Tu vinme daemuqreba ukrainis sazRvrebs, garantorebi unda Caeban omSi mis mxares.
– Tanamegobrobis qveynebTan kavSiris Sekvrazec xom aris saubari?
– sxvadasxva varianti ganixileba, magram mTavari es postulatia, romelic axla vTqvi. amaze SesaZlebelia SeTanxmeba, magram ZiriTadi xazi mainc teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgenas gasdevs, rac niSnavs doneckis da luganskis upirobod dabrunebas da kamaTs – yirimisTvis.
– ruseTi amas ar daTanxmdeba.
– diax, es ruseTs xels ar aZlevs. mxolod maSin daTanxmdeba moskovi prezidentebis Sexvedras, rodesac omSi poziciebs gaimyarebs, aiRebs ramdenime msxvil qalaqs, magaliTad, nikolaevsa da xarkovs, romelsac jer kidev veraferi mouxerxes.
– xma gavrcelda, poloneTis premieri saakaSvilis gasaTavisufleblad Camovidao.
– ar vici, SesaZloa, raRac iTqva am Temaze, niadagi mosinjes, magram garwmunebT, poloneTis premieri amisTvis ar Camosula. iseve rogorc britaneTma, poloneTmac daiwyo natos miRma sakuTari TamaSi. es gulisxmobs axali tipis aliansebis Seqmnas, radgan nato garkveulwilad amoiwura. am samxedro aliansSi ver iReben aRmosavleT evropis qveynebs, rac maTTvis sasicocxlod mniSvnelovania, igive ukrainasa da saqarTvelos. poloneTs Tavisi interesebi aqvs: unda, massa da ruseTs Soris natos wevri buferi qveyana iyos da gasagebia misi miswrafeba am TvalsazrisiT. natosTan es ar gamodis, amitom iqmneba axali samxedro aliansebi, britaneTTan erTad amitom Sekres kavSiri. marTalia, es ar aris samxedro urTierTdaxmarebis aliansi, magram samxedro TanamSromlobis – aris. garda amisa, oficialur varSavas mobezrda gauTaveblad pozaSi dgoma da gadawyvita, Tavad gaaaqtiuros politika postsabWoTa sivrceSi. moravieckis vizitic amasTan iyo dakavSirebuli, yovel SemTxvevaSi, erT-erTi mniSvnelovani faqtori es iyo.
– ra gvelis omis dasrulebis Semdeg?
– miWirs amaze zusti pasuxi, sanam ar gamoikveTeba gamarjvebuli. ruseTis damarcxebis, Tundac diplomatiuri marcxis SemTxvevaSi, sakmaod Sors gadaideba saqarTvelosTan angariSsworeba. Tu ruseTma saxe SeinarCuna, am SemTxvevaSic dasavleTis mxridan garantirebuli iqneba Cveni qveynis usafrTxoeba. mxolod ruseTis gamarjvebis SemTxvevaSi dagvidgeba mZime dReebi, Tumca es yvela variantSi savaraudoa – Zalian mibmuli varT am ori qveynis ekonomikaze da ukrainac da ruseTic mwvave mdgomareobaSi rom aRmoCndebian, es utyuari faqtia. aqedan gamomdinare, Cveni situaciac damZimdeba, rac unda icodes saqarTvelos mosaxleobam.
– dabolos, Tu SeiZleba, SeafaseT opoziciis qmedebebi?
– ra giTxraT, opoziciaSi arian adamianebi, romlebic gaucnobiereblad akeTeben sxvis saqmes da arian iseTebic, romlebsac amas avaleben. aviRoT Tundac is daCemeba, zelenski CagverTos da sityviT gamovides saqarTvelos parlamentSio. ki, batono, gamovides da Tavisi saTqmeli Tqvas, magram im formiT, rogorc es gaakeTa opoziciam, piradad CemTvis miuRebelia. es idea Tavidanve sajarod gamoitanes mTavrobis kidev erTxel diskreditaciis mizniT. xom SeiZleboda, Tavidanve SeeTanxmebinaT parlamentis TavmjdomaresTan da mxolod uaris SemTxvevaSi aetexaT yvirili? aqedan gamomdinare, aSkaraa, rom radikaluri opoziciis yvela Tema arsebuli xelisuflebis diskreditaciazea gaTvlili. erTi mxriv, iTvleba, rom opoziciis saqme es aris, magram, meore mxriv, am etapze es qmedebebi iwvevs Tavad qveynis diskreditacias, ris gamoc radikaluri opozicia ukve miuRebeli xdeba. damTavrda, amoiwura amiT yvelaferi. opoziciis is nawili, romelic sxvagvarad fiqrobs an `erTiani nacionaluri moZraobis~ dRis wesrigsaa ayolili an mowyvetilia, gaTiSulia aqtiuri moqmedebebisgan. CemTvis es miuRebelia kidev imitom, rodesac Tavad viyavi opoziciaSi, Tuki romelime lideri xelisuflebis kritikiT dasavleTis TvalSi qveynis imijs daazaralebda, vewinaaRmdegebodi. maxsovs, satelevizio gadacemaSi JirinovskisTan hqonda dialogi xaindravas da saakaSvilis gineba rom daiwyo, goga aqedan daetaka – Cemi prezidentia, Sen ratom aginebo . . . axla ar aris amaze laparakis dro, Torem obieqturad rom giTxraT, ukrainis xelisuflebis zogierTi nabiji CemTvis absoluturad miuRebelia. amaze aRar SevCerdebi, magram vTvli, rom Zalian sasacilo mdgomareobaSi Caigdes Tavi, imdenad moeqcnen `nacionaluri moZraobis~ adgilobrivi kadrebis gavlenis qveS.
