სოსო მანჯავიძე: თავისი მასშტაბით, მეორე მსოფლიო ომის შემდეგ, დონბასის ფრონტზე უპრეცედენტო საბრძოლო მოქმედებებია მოსალოდნელი
ირმა ცეცხლაძე 27 48 93 –
politologi soso manjaviZe acxadebs, rom saakaSvilis saqarTveloSi Semosvlis mizani ruseTisTvis meore frontis gaxsna iyo. misi TqmiT, zelenskim da misma uaxloesma garemocvam icoda mosalodneli omis Sesaxeb, xolo arasworad informirebuli eqsprezidenti dahpirda, rom momxreebTan erTad xelSi aiRebda Zalauflebas da, ukrainis paralelurad, sabrZolo moqmedebebSi Caebmeboda
`aWarasTan~ eqskluzivSi politologi saubrobs stambolis molaparakebebze abramoviCis gamoCenis Sesaxeb da varaudobs, rom doneckSi moxdeba meore msoflio omis Semdeg yvelaze didi sabrZolo Setakeba, risTvisac ukve emzadebian rogorc rusi, ise ukraineli samxedroebi.
– isev mimdinareobs omi, isev vimyofebiT urTierTgamomricxavi gancxadebebis tyveobaSi da gviWirs garkveva, ra xdeba sinamdvileSi.
– orive mxares marTlac mZlavrad muSaobs propagandis meqanizmebi, romlis zegavlenisgan Tavdasacavad informaciis damoukidebeli wyaroebi unda vipovoT an dapirispirebuli mxareebis sainformacio saSualebebis mier mowodebuli informaciis SedarebiTi analizi gavakeToT, xolo statistika SevajeroT. mxolod ase Tu SevZlebT SedarebiT realisturi suraTis miRebas.
– Tu SeiZleba, ganvixiloT stambolSi gamarTuli ruseT-ukrainis molaparakebebi. . .
– stambolis molaparakeba ucnauri pasaJebiT gamoirCeoda. moulodnelad iq aRmoCnda abramoviCi, romelic ukrainel miliarder igor kolomoiskis megobaria. mas Sexvda erdoRanic, rac aseve auxsnelia. aqve isic gaixseneT, rom sakmaod dabneuli gancxadebebi gaakeTes ruseTis delegaciis xelmZRvanelma vladimer medinskim da ruseTis Tavdacvis ministris moadgile aleqsandre fominma. yvelaze niSandoblivia, rom ruseTis warmomadgenlebma gaaJReres ara sakuTari, aramed ukrainelTa pozicia.
– ukraina marTlac wavida did daTmobaze. mis pozicias rogor SeafasebT?
– ZiriTadi iyo is, rom 15 wlis ganmavlobaSi yirimis, donbasis da luganskis Tema gaiyineba, ukrainis mxare uars ityvis Zalis gamoyenebaze, aseve Tanxmobas acxadebs, gaxdes neitraluri saxelmwifo. simarTle giTxraT, aqac aris gaugebroba – rogor unda gaiyinos es Tema, Tuki ukve mimdinareobs konfliqti da ar aris garkveuli rigi sakiTxebi.
– romeli sakiTxebi?
– TviTgamocxadebuli da ruseTis mier aRiarebuli `saxalxo respublikebis~ teritoria Seadgens 53 aTas kvadratul kilometrs 2014 wels dafiqsirebuli olqebis administraciul sazRvrebSi, romlisganac omamde separatistebi mxolod naxevars akontrolebdnen. magaliTad, mariupoli doneckis olqs miekuTvneba, anu sad Seva mariupoli, rogor daiyofa es olqebi im sazRvrebis mixedviT, romelsac rusebi ikaveben, jerac ucnobia. am sakiTxebis detalizacia stambolis molaparakebebis dros ar gakeTebula. aqve davakonkretoT, rom ukraina uars ambobs birTvuli iaraRis flobis pretenziaze, neitralitetis da garantorobis kandidatebad saxeldebian safrangeTi, germania, didi britaneTi, TurqeTi, poloneTi, italia da iaponiac ki.
– anu, rasac manamde iTxovda ruseTi, zelenskim is gaakeTa da bonusad zedmeti teritoriebic miayola?
– ki, aseTi suraTi ikveTeba. axla isic gavarkvioT, ra reaqcia mohyva amas ukrainaSi. stambolis molaparakebebis Sedegebma gamoiwvia seriozuli isteria nacionalistur wreebSi, xolo ukrainaSi isini dominireben rogorc ideologiurad, ise mmarTvelobaSi. kerZod, es nabijebi miiCnies Ralatad. maTi azriT, `barigebma~ – zelenskim da kolomoiskim gayides ukraineli patriotebi, romlebic mizanmimarTulad Seketes ruseTis armiis mier alyaSemortymul qalaqebSi ganadgurebis mizniT, raTa maT pasuxi ar mosTxovon zelenskis xelisuflebas `RalatisaTvis~.
– ukrainis sxva warmomadgenlebma?
– Tavad ukrainis xelisufleba warmoadgens politikuri dapirispirebebis da brZolis areals. iq aris anglo-saqsur-amerikuli politikis gamtarebeli fena, romelsac ar awyobs da ar unda omis SeCereba. arian germaniis da safrangeTis – evropuli nawilis interesebis gamtarebeli politikosebic. mogexsenebaT, evrokavSiri yvelaze metad dazaralda am omis Sedegad. vgulisxmob, sanqciebis mizeziT energomatareblebsa da didi sawarmoebisTvis sasicocxlod aucilebel sxva nedleulze fasebis katastroful zrdas. is demagogia, romelsac awarmoebs evrokomisiis Tavmjdomare ursula fon der laieni, absoluturad araadekvaturia. ruseTidan wamosuli energomatareblebis da kidev bevri sxva ramis (naxSiris, titanis, sasuqebis, paladiumis da sxva) dauyovnebliv Canacvleba urTulesia. samomavlod, gamosavali, cxadia, moiZebneba, magram am etapze zogierT saqonelze uaris Tqma, absoluturad gamoricxulia. situacias kidev ufro arTulebs putinis moTxovna rusul gazze rubliT angariSsworebis Sesaxeb, rac arRvevs msoflioSi gabatonebul dasavluri ekonomikuri modelis mTavar principebs da, Cemi azriT, am dapirispirebis yvelaze mniSvnelovani sakiTxia mravali mizezis gamo, romlebzec aq ar SevCerdebi.
– Tqven ucnaurad miiCnieT abramoviCis stambolSi gamoCena da es igor kolomoiskis daukavSireT. . .
– ki, es marTlac moulodneli iyo. abramoviCi aris msoflios ebraelTa kongresis Tavmjdomaris kolomoiskis megobari. SeiZleba kolomoiski ar iyos Zalian rafinirebuli da miRebuli evropul elitaSi, samagierod, udidesi gavlena aqvs ukrainis xelisuflebaze – swored masTan aris dakavSirebuli zelenskis moyvana xelisuflebaSi, ase rom, masTan laparaks aqvs azri, radgan misi sityva Wris ukrainis mTavrobaSi. esec gasaTvaliswinebelia. am tragikul geopolitikur viTarebaSi, Cven SegviZlia mivadevnoT Tvalyuri Zalian ucnaur movlenebs. kerZod, ar ibombeboda kolomoiskisTan afilirebuli obieqtebi. sainteresoa, rom rusul pablikebSi xSirad aCvenebdnen kolomoiskis sakuTrebaSi myofi navTobbazebis zust koordinatebs dnepropetrovskis olqSi, pirdapir udeben Tavdacvis saministros – ratom ar bombavTo. es viTareba radikalurad Seicvala ukrainelebis mier belgorodis navTobbazis dabombvis Semdeg, rasac dauyonebliv mohyva pasuxi da daibomba kolomoiskis kuTvnili navTobis terminali. . . rogorc Cans, kolomoiskim ver uzrunvelyo garkveuli pirobebis Sesruleba.. amave dros, abramoviCis gamoCena stambolSi ukavSirdeba im aqtivebis beds, romelic `upatronod~ rCeba omis Sedegad. cxadia, oligarqebisTvis es pirveli rigis interesia.
– ukrainas, daTmobebze wasvlis sanacvlod, ras hpirdeba ruseTi?
– ruseTs gamohyavs jarebi kievis, Cernigovis, sumis olqebidan. Seasrulebs Tu ara moskovi am pirobebs bolomde, ar viciT, magram, yovel SemTxvevaSi, jarebis gayvana intensiurad mimdinareobs.
– ra gamoiwvia am gancxadebam Tavad ruseTSi, xom ar gabrazdnen?
– medinskis am gancxadebam marTlac udidesi agresia gamoiwvia. rusuli propagandis ruporebic ki gaognebuli darCnen. Sedegad gaisma kritikuli, gabrazebuli, muqaris Semcveli gancxadebebi, anu ukraineli `nacionalistebis~ sarkiseburi reaqcia iyo. `es ras niSnavs, maSin ratom SevediT am omSi ukraineli faSistebis gasanadgureblad, ratom miviReT amxela dartyma dasavleTisgan?!~ – ismoda rusuli sainformacio saSualebebidan da socialuri qselebidan, anu rusebic Ralatad da motyuebad miiCneven putinis mxridan `mTel rig daTmobebze wasvlas~ da sxva amgvari. mTeli es kritika im doneze mivida, rom kremlis ruporebs – soloviovs, skobeevas da sxvebsac mouwiaT Zalian seriozuli Zalisxmeva am SeTanxmebis `gasapraveblad~ sakuTar gadacemebSi.
– gamodis, mTeli ruseTi mxars uWers putinis agresias?
– mTeli ara, magram didi nawili – aSkarad. Tu `specialuri operaciis~ dasawyisSi mas mxars uWerda mosaxleobis 63%, axla mxardamWerTa raodenoba 85%-mde gaizarda. ruseTis SeiaraRebuli Zalebis mier kievis, Cernigovis, sumis olqebis datoveba aixsna donbasis dajgufebis ganadgurebisaTvis Zalebis koncentraciis aucileblobiT, Tumca bevri eqsperti am moqmedebebSi farul SeTanxmebas xedavs.
– ra SeTanxmebas?
– am SeTanxmebis mixedviT, rusebi uars amboben, Seution kievsa da sxva olqebs, sanacvlod, alyaSi aqceven donbasis dajgufebas da ukrainis sxva sajariso SenaerTebsac, riTac moxdeba maTi ganadgureba, demilitarizacia, rasac Tavidanve iTxovda putini. am versias ufro da ufro xSirad aJRereben analitikosebi sxvadasxva mxridan.
– ras ambobs amaze amerikis SeerTebuli Statebi da nato?
– maT cxadia, xels ar aZlevT omis dasruleba da vxedavT, rom gaZlierda anglo-saqsebis, holandiis da sxvaTa mxridan iaraRis miwodebis intensivoba, iseve rogorc miwodebuli iaraRis xarisxi. amave dros, isini acnobiereben, rom frontaluri dapirispirebis gagrZeleba male SeuZlebeli gaxdeba, amitom aqcenti keTdeba partizanul-diversiuli omisaTvis saWiro SeiaraRebaze da aseTi jgufebis gadamzadebaze, maTTvis am profilis iaraRis miwodebaze. ukraina, maTi strategiiT, unda gaxdes `slavuri avRaneTi~, aseTive `misia~ Cvens regionSi unda Seasrulos saqarTvelom, risTvisac xorcieldeba zewola Cvens mTavrobaze.
– rac Seexeba omis mimdinareobas. . .
– rac Seexeba samxedro moqmedebebs, wina interviuSic vambobdi da axla, rogorc iqna, aRiares aleqsei arestoviCmac da zelenskis mTavrobis sxva wevrebmac, rom ukrainis samxedro-samrewvelo kompleqsi, faqtobrivad, ganadgurebulia, haers mTlianad akontrolebs ruseTis aviacia, amitom gaugebaria, rogor apireben donbasSi saxmeleTo frontalur brZolas, es xom TviTmkvleloba iqneba. arada, gadarCenili teqnikis mTeli arsenali iqiTken miemarTeba da mosalodnelia, meore msoflio omis Semdeg uprecedento sabrZolo moqmedebebi am frontze.
– Tuki stambolSi SeTanxmdnen, rom 15 wlis ganmavlobaSi gaiyineba konfliqti donbasSi, luganskSi da yirimSi, ratom emzadeba am brZolisTvis orive mxare?
– es marTlac saocaria. zogadad, am oms bevri ucnauroba axasiaTebs. dapirispirebul mxareebs erTmaneTisTvis omi ar gamoucxadebiaT. ingreva qalaqebi, iRupebian adamianebi da am dros rusuli gazi Seuferxeblad miewodeba evropel momxmarebels ukrainis satranzito gazsadenebiT. aseve cinikuria sanqciebis SerCeviTi xasiaTi. ase, magaliTad, amerikelebi ar uweseben sanqciebs iseT saeqsporto saqonels ruseTidan, romlis dablokvac maT zians miayenebs. aseTebia, magaliTad, urani – atomuri sadgurebisTvis, fosfatebi, kaliumis Semcveli sasuqebi, paladiumi, titani da ase Semdeg. amas im tvingacxelebuli adamianebisTvis vambob, vinc saqarTvelos mTavrobas mouwodebs, rom sanqciebs SeuerTdes mosalodneli savalalo Sedegebis miuxedavad. samxedro moqmedebebSi Cabmis mowodebis avtorebze vityvi – Statiani provokatorisa da SeSlilis garda, amas aravin dauWers mxars.
– mainc rogoria Tqveni prognozi donbasSi mosalodneli brZolis Sesaxeb?
– Tanamedrove omSi, rodesac mowinaaRmdegis aviacia batonobs caSi, meore mxare ki aqcents gamagrebuli adgilebidan Tavdacvaze akeTebs, vinaidan ar hyavs Sesabamisi raodenobis mobiluri teqnika, artileria da sxva, saubari iqneba mxolod vadaze, gaZlebaze, Torem brZolis Sedegi cnobilia. me erTi ram ver gamigia: ratom ver xedaven amas is adamianebi, romlebic monawileoben msgavsi gadawyvetilebebis miRebaSi?!
– TiTqos raRac saSinel speqtakls veswrebiT, yvela yvelafers vxvdebiT da. . .isini ver xvdebian, ase iyo Tavidanve. ruseTTan ra Sansi hqondaT, xom unda scodnodaT ukrainelebs?
– adamianebs, romlebic uSualod monawileoben procesSi, xSirad uWirT movlenebis obieqturad aRqma. meore mxriv, rbilad rom vTqvaT, ukrainis mTavroba ar aris damoukidebeli Tavis gadawyvetilebebSi, rac didad ganapirobebs bevr iracionalur da mavne moqmedebas ukrainis erovnul interesebTan mimarTebiT.
– mTel am situaciaSi, rogor moicala zelenskim saqarTvelosa da marokodan elCebis gawvevisTvis?
– saqarTvelos mimarT zelenskis erTi saaTiTac ar moudunebia yuradReba. ukve karga xania yvelasTvis gasagebia, rom saakaSvili da zelenski erTsa da imave Zalas warmoadgenen. axla kidev ufro cxadad warmoCnda miSas Camosvlis mizani – uzrunveleyo meore frontis gaxsna saqarTveloSi. is, rom am omisTvis ukrainas amzadebdnen, sruliad naTelia, Tu gadaxedavT, magaliTad, igive aleqsei arestoviCis dialogebs, sadac aJRerebs, rom `omi ruseTTan gardauvalia~, rom `aucileblad unda CaerTon samxedro konfliqtebSi~ da sxva.
– anu miviReT pasuxi kiTxvaze, ratom gvewvia ase aralegaluri gziT saakaSvili saqarTveloSi?
– iseve, rogorc kiTxvaze – ratom Cavida poroSenko ukrainaSi? mas daekisra zelenskize zegavlenis instrumentis, damokles maxvilis roli. igive mizniT Camovida aq saakaSvili. vinaidan saqarTvelos mTavroba eurCeba SekveTas da ar surs aSkara suicidze wasvla, zelenski am farsiT, anu elCis gawveviT, ukmayofilebas gamoTqvams. ayolili arian am Temas qveynis mosisxle da dauZinebeli mtrebic – `nacebi~ da maTi fanebi. patriotuli emociebis gamZafrebiT da gaTamaSebiT, isini cdiloben aiyolion qarTveli xalxi, mTavroba da gadaadgmevinon nabiji, romelic iseTive tragikuli SedegebiT dasruldeba, rogoric ukrainaSia.
– bevri Tvlis, rom ukraina TavisuflebisTvis ibrZvis da sruliadac ar miiCnevs tragikulad omis Sedegebs.
– ras ar miiCneven – daxocil xalxs, mSvidobian mosaxleobas, ganadgurebul infrastruqturas, ekonomikas, qalaqebs da xelisuflebas, romelic ukve imaze met daTmobaze midis, vidre Tavidan iTxovda moskovi?!
– principSi, CvenTanac igive ar moxda 2008 wels?
– ki, zustad meordeba scenari, oRond gacilebiT did masStabebSi. isev, rogorc ukrainas, Cvenc maqsimalistur mizanze agviyoliebdnen da Semdeg minimaluric sanatreli gagvixdeboda.
– oseTsa da afxazeTze ras ityviT, urTierTgamomricxavi gancxadebebi rom gaakeTes?
– cxinvali yovelTvis aseT poziciaze iyo da axlac morCilad Seasrula kremlis direqtiva, romlis erTaderTi mizani iyo saqarTvelos daSineba – `Tu Wkvianad ar iqnebiT, mogxedavTo~. rac Seexeba afxazeTs, iq seriozuli procesebi mimdinareobs, magaliTad, ruseTis moqalaqeebis mier uZravi qonebis Sesyidvis gamo. biWvinTis da gagris olqebSi gamosvlebi iyo, rasac ratomRac ar aSuqeben qarTul mediaSi, arc `nacebi~ iReben xmas, rac saintereso mosazrebebs gviRviZebs. anu ar `awyobT~ am sakiTxis gaSuqeba, radgan maT scenars ewinaaRmdegeba. rac Seexeba Tavad afxazebs, maTi mentalobidan gamomdinare, ar undaT ruseTTan SeerTeba. iqauri politikuri elita absoluturad sxvagvaradaa ganwyobili da sxva grandiozuli ekonomikuri gaTvlebi da perspeqtivebi aqvs. rusebi ki aRrWialeben kbilebs da gulSi mjiRs icemen Cumad, magram am etapze sakiTxis gamwvaveba xels ar aZlevT. es xom mTlianad daangrevs maT ideologiur narativs, rasac kargad xvdebian afxazebi da cdiloben, es saTavisod gamoiyenon.
