რამაზ საყვარელიძე: არ არის გამორიცხული, რომ ოსებმა რუსებთან ეშმაკობა გადაწყვიტეს
მარიამ ხითარიშვილი 27 48 93 –
gvesaubreba politologi ramaz sayvareliZe, romelic ganixilavs saqarTvelos sagareo da saSinao politikas da acxadebs, rom saakaSvili aq Camovida ara imitom, rom meore frontis gaxsnas dahpirda zelenskis, ubralod, SeeSinda omis dawyebis da cixeSi yofna arCia.
– ukve aRarc ki saubroben ruseT-ukrainis omis dasasrulze – eqspertebi mis gagrZelebas da konfliqtebis gayinvas varaudoben.
– SesaZloa, iyos raRac wyvetiloba saomar moqmedebebSi, magram arsebuli situaciidan gamomdinare, Cans, rom omi did dros daiWers da ucabedi gamarjveba, romelsac ruseTi eloda, ar iqneba uaxloes periodSi mainc.
– 15 wlis ganmavlobaSi yirimis, luganskis da doneckis konfliqtebis gayinvaze isedac SeTanxmdnen stambolis molaparakebebze mxareebi. kidev ra gaiyineba?
– vgulisxmob ukrainidan rusis jaris mTlianad gayvanas, rac gaiweleba drosa da sivrceSi. arc erTi mxare ar wava daTmobaze, es ukve gasagebia da verc molaparakebebis magidas miusxdebian, yovel SemTxvevaSi, sanam romelime maTgani ar moipovebs brZolebSi mkveTr upiratesobas. Tuki luganski an donecki dautova ruseTs zelenskim, maSin mosaxleobaSi gaCndeba ukmayofileba amodena msxverplis gaRebis gamo, radgan Tavis droze mxolod amas da neitralitets sTxovda putini ukrainas. gamodis, qveyana dangreulia, aTasgvari saSinelebebi – datrialebuli, xolo ukraina im pirobebSi aRmoCndeba, rogorsac yovelgvari sisxlis da ngrevis gareSe Tavidanve sTavazobda kremli.
– ukmayofileba orive mxares aqvs sakuTar mosaxleobaSi. zelenskis pretenziebi wauyenes `nacionalistebma~.
– ki, aris es pretenziebi zelenskisTan, magram igive neitralitetze Tanxmoba man sakmaod kargi formulirebiT Camoayaliba. kerZod, moiTxova garantorebad natos qveynebi da aSS-sgan piroba – Tuki ukrainas vinme Seexeba, misi mteri gaxdeba, anu natos mexuTe punqtismagvar meqanizms qmnian ormxrivi urTierTobebiT da ara – organizaciiT. ai, am tipis neitralitets iTxovs ukraina. acxadebs, rom ar gaerTiandeba samxedro blokSi, magram Tu mas daemuqreba vinme, gverdiT unda hyavdes Zlieri saxelmwifo, romelic mosalodneli samxedro agresiisgan daicavs.
– ukrainaSi frontma qveynis aRmosavleTiT gadainacvla, sadac ukrainulma Zalebma sabrZolo gamocdileba miiRes da samxedro momzadeba gaiares. analitikosebi miiCneven, rom ukrainis armiis saukeTeso qvedanayofebi swored aRmosavleTiT, ruseTis Tavdasxmis mosagerieblad momzadebul poziciebze arian gamagrebuli. ra aris mosalodneli aRmosavleT frontze?
– samxedro Cini rom mqondes, albaT ufro Tavdajerebulad vityodi rames, magram Tuki am qmedebebs politikur WrilSi gadavitanT, rogorc ruseTisTvis, ise ukrainisTvis am brZolas eqneba udidesi mniSvneloba, radgan kremls marcxiani hqonda mTeli omi da axla Seecdeba, daamtkicos – mas gamarjvebac SeuZlia.
– Tuki gaimarjva ruseTma, maSin ras unda elodos ukraina?
– imaze mZime dReSi aRmoCndeba ukraina, vidre axlaa. faqtia, ukrainelebi yvela Rones ixmaren, raTa ruseTs da mTel msoflios daumtkicon, rom Rirda maT gverdiT dgoma da rom pirnaTlad asruleben evropis da civilizebuli dasavleTis mcvelis rols. ruseTis oficialurma pirebma ganacxades, rom maTi amJamindeli yuradReba donbasis `srul gaTavisuflebazea~ gamaxvilebuli, rac ukrainis luganskisa da doneckis olqebs gulisxmobs. Tu samxedro eqspertebis sityvebs moviSveliebT, aRmosavleT ukrainaSi arsebuli reliefi ruseTis jarebis winsvlas mniSvnelovan problemas uqmnis. qveynis CrdiloeT nawilTan SedarebiT, mimdebare teritoria naklebad tyiania da analitikosebi varaudoben, rom es ukrainel mebrZolebs erTgvar prioritets aniWebs. Sesabamisad, ukraineli samxedroebis TavdacviTi poziciebidan gamoyvana ruseTs Zalian gauWirdeba. ukrainul mxares ar eqneba mxolod pirveli msoflio omis stilis sangrebi, maT aseve eqnebaT gamagrebuli sakvanZo qalaqebi da soflebi, romelTa dacvasac apireben. aseve amboben, rom ukrainuli javSanteqnika da artileria winaswar momzadebul miwisqveSa TavSesafrebSia ganTavsebuli.
– ra komentars gaakeTebT arestoviCis gancxadebaze, rom icodnen mosalodneli omis Sesaxeb, magram mosaxleobas daumales?
– es mZime gancxadebaa. msgavsi ram sxvebmac Tqves, rac iqca ukrainelebis gansjis sagnad. bevri isaubres rogorc socialur qselebSi popularulma blogerebma, ise mediaSi. Tuki mTeli sigrZe-siganiT gaviazrebT, umZimes braldebamde mivdivarT. principSi, amis gamovlena-damtkicebac ar iqneba ioli. Tavad ukrainelebic acxadeben, rom am etapze msgavsi Temis ganxilva da ukrainis polarizeba dauSvebelia, mogvianebiT gavarCioTo. asea Tu ise, ukrainis xelisufalT ukve daufiqsirdaT es xarvezi, ramac SesaZloa, samomavlod mZime braldebis winaSe daayenos isini da pasuxi agebinos ukraineli eris winaSe.
– saakaSvilis saqarTveloSi Semosvlis mizanze ras gvetyviT? amboben, zelenskis dahpirda, aqedan meore fronts gagixsniTo?
– ar mgonia, simarTles Seesabamebodes, radgan miSa Camovida Tu ara, Cabarda xelisuflebas. sxva mizani da davaleba rom hqonoda, SeuerTdeboda sakuTar momxreebs, daimaleboda. gvaxsovs, saxuravebzec ki darboda ukrainaSi, policias rom ar daeWira, axla ki, gadakra arayi da. . . Cabarda.
– albaT, imedi hqonda, TviTmmarTvelobis arCevnebs `Cemebi~ moigeben da riggareSe arCevnebs davniSnavTo.
– ara, man Zalian kargad icoda, rom ver gaimarjvebda. sul sxva movlenebia, rac jer kidev ar aris naTeli. gaixseneT, aravin eloda ruseT-ukrainis oms, magram rom daiwyo, ukve ganvixilavT saakaSvilis Semosvlas am fonze. SeiZleba, miSam icoda omis Sesaxeb da Tavi daaRwia iqaurobas. ai, am azrs ufro daveTanxmebi.
– gamaTavisufleT, gamiSviT ukrainaSi, zelenskis unda davudge gverdiTo, ratom iTxovda?
– enas Zvali ar aqvs. ratom ar moiTxovda, ra. . .
– rogor SeafasebT zelenskis saqarTvelos mimarT gamoxatul pretenziebs? ratom surs am omSi Cveni CaTreva, sxva qveynebs ratom ar axsenebs?
– albaT, arc sxva qveynebze ityoda uars, moldovac axsena, Tumca elCi mxolod saqarTvelodan da marokodan gaiwvia. aqedan gamomdinare, sainteresoa – ratom? axla axseneT arestoviCis gancxadeba, yvelafers erTad Tu gaviazrebT, mivalT daskvnamde, rom ukrainis politikur elitaSi myof axalgazrdebs diplomatiaSi naklebi gamocdileba aqvT da amitom uSveben politikur xarvezebs. Secdomaa, aba, ra aris, rodesac ase gadaekidebi am gagania omis dros saqarTvelos maSin, rodesac Tavisuflad SegiZlia partniorad iyolio da rogorc partniors, misce `ufleba~, gadawyvitos, rogor moiqces. rac Seexeba meore frontis gaxsnis moTxovnas, es arc aris gasakviri, radgan rac ufro meti fronti gaixsneba, miT ufro daiqsaqseba ruseTis sajariso nawilebi da ukrainasac gamarjvebis meti Sansi eqneba, magram amis moTxovnasac ufro meti taqti da lavireba sWirdeba, rasac ver axerxebs ukrainis axlandeli xelisufali.
– elian qimiuri da biologiuri iaraRis gamoyenebas, eWvoben birTvul iaraRzec. . .
– ruseTisgan yvelafers unda velodoT mas Semdeg, rac man ukrainaSi SeWra gadawyvita. amiT daumtkica msoflios, rom ar ainteresebs aravis azri da ar iTvaliswinebs civilizaciis, iseve rogorc omis kanonebs, Tumca, aSS-is da didi britaneTis samefos samxedro wreebi imedianad arian, Tvlian, rom ver moaxerxebs ruseTi birTvuli iaraRis gamoyenebas, radgan icis, rom dasavleTs mizanSi hyavs amoRebuli da ufro swrafi reaqcia eqneba, ase rom, birTvuli omis safrTxe, ase Tu ise, acilebuli gvaqvs. naxevari saaTi mainc xom unda raketis budeSi Casmas da monacemebis Seyvanas, Tanac, rogorc ki amuSavdeba saraketo danadgarebi, iseTi xmauri hqonia, rom TavisTavad miiqcevs dasavleTis agentebis yuradRebas. faqtia, miiReben imaze swraf reagirebas, vidre Tavad SeZleben samiznis afeTqebas.
– saqarTvelos mTavrobis pozicias rogor SeafasebT?
– is sakmaod sulgrZelad iqceva. kargad iciT, rom mTeli Cveni mosaxleoba darCa Seuracxyofili Sav xvrelebTan dakavSirebiT ukrainis radas Tavmjdomaris gancxadebis gamo. elCis jer wayvana, Semdeg mobruneba da adgilze gaTavisuflebac damamcirebeli iyo sxva qveynebis TvalSi. amis miuxedavad, saqarTvelos mTavrobam gonivrulad Seafasa situacia, radgan kargad icoda, ra xalxi idga yovelive amis ukan anu mmarTveli gundis wevrebi ukrainas yvela pretenzias `utarebdnen~ da omSi yofnis mizeziT ar aRizianebdnen. piriqiT, kidev ufro exmarebodnen da sulgrZelad patiobdnen daumsaxurebel braldebebs. amitom daTmes da. . . wavidnen parlamentarebi kievSi, anu ar ayvnen zelenskis mTavrobis braldebebs da adgilze gaarkvies, vis mimarT da ratom hqondaT wyena.
– cxinvalis arCevnebze da referendumze ras ityviT – eqneba Tu ara iuridiuli Zala? amiT ruseTi kidev erTxel gvaSinebs?
– ruseTis mier okupirebul cxinvalis regionSi `saprezidento arCevnebis~ Catareba dagmes evrokavSirma, natom, aSS-ma da saqarTvelos sxva partniorma saxelmwifoebma. specialuri gancxadeba gaavrcela saqarTvelos sagareo saqmeTa saministrom. okupirebuli cxinvalis regionSi Catarebul egreT wodebul arCevnebs cnoben mxolod qveynebi, romlebsac saqarTvelos es teritoria `damoukidebel respublikad~ aqvT aRiarebuli: ruseTi, venesuela, nikaragua, siria da nauru, anu iuridiuli Zala saerTaSoriso gansazRvrebiT, ar eqneba, magram `amaT~ eyofaT. rac Seexeba ruseTs, gafrTxileba maSin iqneboda, rom ar hqonodaT vadiT gaTvaliswinebuli arCevnebi da riggareSed moewyoT. referendumze ki vfiqrob, Tavad osebis organizebuli, kremlis sawinaaRmdegod mowyobili TamaSia. mogexsenebaT, moskovi Sehpirda osebsac da afxazebsac, SegimcirdebaT dafinanseba, 2025 wlisTvis 18%-mde davao. ar aris gamoricxuli, rom osebma rusebTan eSmakoba gadawyvites. Caatareben referendums, Sedegad miiReben mosaxleobis ruseTTan SeerTebis moTxovnas da SesTavazeben sakuTar Tavs kremls. es niSnavs, tranSs Tu gvimcireb, maSin SegvierTe da ise gvarCine, anu rCenaze, gamokvebazea brZola. vis axsovs politika, iseT dReSi arian.
– afxazebs ar aqvT igive gegmebi rCenasTan dakavSirebiT – sakmaod vaJkacurad ganacxades uari.
– afxazebTan SedarebiT, osebs gacilebiT uaresi mdgomareoba aqvT – CixSi arian da ruseTs iqiT gza ar aqvT. cxadia, Tu saqarTvelos ar CavTvliT. orive am regions mZime periodi udgeba, radgan Tavad ruseTs ewyeba krizisi.
– ruseTs sakuTari egreT wodebuli saxalxo respublikebi ukve gaurbian da sanqciebiT gamowveuli krizisi rom damZimdeba, partniori qveynebi ar ganudgebian?
– jerjerobiT ruseTs CineTi hyavs yvelaze saimedo partniorad, radgan marTlac Zlieri qveyanaa, magram arc cnobili gamoTqma unda daviviwyoT: `CineTs partniorebi ar hyavs~. marTlac, principulad aravisTan debs sapartnioro xelSekrulebas, Tavi rom ar SeizRudos. CineTi akeTebs mxolod imas, rac mas xels aZlevs. es daamtkica kidec, radgan axlac ise iqceva, rogorc awyobs. ruseTis gadamtereba, cxadia, ar unda, magram arc saerTaSoriso sazogadoebis gadamtereba unda da raRac-raRacebs imizezebs, rom ar CaerTos moskovis sawinaaRmdego sanqciebSi, amasTan, kremls ubodiSebs, rogor viyido Sengan navTobi, rodesac sabanko angariSsworebis sistema gamosulia mwyobridan da anazRaurebas ver mogcemo, anu sanqciebs ar axorcielebs, magram arc ruseTs umarTavs xels navTobis gayidvaSi. arcerT mxares TiTqos ar iWers, magram, sabolood, mainc azaralebs kremls. mas axla yvelaze metad ainteresebs is rusuli teritoriebi, romelsac TandaTanobiT iTvisebs, anu `partniorulad~ axdens ruseTis araoficialur aneqsias. ase rom, CineTisTvis ruseTi Cinelebis miwebiT dakmayofileba ufroa, vidre iseTi megobari, romelsac xels SeaSvelebs da mZime periodSi daexmareba.
