,,აბრეშუმის გზა არის ჩვენი გადარჩენაც, ჩვენი სახელმწიფოებრიობის არსებობაც, თავისუფლების გარანტიაც”
ირმა ცეცხლაძე 27 48 93 –
gTavazobT intervius damoukidebel analitikosTan, harmoniuli globalizaciisa da marTvis institutis damfuZnebelTan, geopolitikis specialist Teimuraz zaqraZesTan.
– batono Teimuraz, rogor SeafasebT saqarTvelos ekonomikas Cveni ori ZiriTadi importioris – ruseT-ukrainis omis fonze, miT umetes, rom arc manamde gvqonda am mxriv saqme kargad?
– samwuxarod, marTali xarT, egreT wodebuli ekonomika, romelic arsebobs sabanko monopoliis pirobebSi, sadac praqtikulad ar aris safondo bazari, rbilad rom vTqvaT, ukiduresad SezRudulia.
– iqneb ufro detalurad agvixsnaT?
– martiv magaliTs mogiyvanT – amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis biujetis naxevars msxvili kapitali avsebs, meore naxevars ki saSualo klasi. principSi, saSualos am klass pirobiTad uwodeben, radgan mas warmoadgenen, magaliTad, mark cukerbergi, bil geitsi, ilon maski, anu sakmaoze mdidari adamianebi. aSS-Si 2 saukuneze metia, Tavisufali sabazro ekonomika arsebobs, rac maTi warmatebis sawindaria.
– CvenTanac xom analogiuri ekonomikaa?
– ase ver vityodi. Cven rom Tavisufali sabazro ekonomika gvqondes, erTmaneTisgan damoukidebeli ori bazari unda arsebobdes – sasesxo da safondo. es ukanaskneli iseTi Tavisufali unda iyos, rogorc erovnuli sabanko sistema, magram saqarTveloSi saSineleba xdeba, Tavad erovnuli banki ganagebs safondo bazars. martivad getyviT, es igivea, pomidori mxolod erT movaWres hqondes bazarSi, anu finansebi mxolod bankebs aqvs. safondo sistema urTulesia da calke unda regulirdebodes, magaliTad, fasiani qaRaldebis komisiiT. msgavsi praqtika mTel msoflioSia miRebuli. ekonomikis gamoTvla xdeba safondo indeqsebiT, Tundac – dou jonsis indeqsiT, izomeba, konkretul qveyanaSi izrdeba Tu iklebs ekonomika. es erT-erTi meqanizmia. mxolod mTliani Sida produqtis mixedviT ar izomeba, es calmxrivi procesia. aqedan gamomdinare, vambob, rom Cven gvaqvs SezRuduli tipis ekonomika, uaRresad anomaliuri.
– nuTu ase cudad gvaqvs saqme?
– Tavad gansazRvreT: safondo birJebi arsebobs totalitarul qveynebSic, Cven ki, samwuxarod, ar gvaqvs. es politikis sakiTxia. Sesabamisi kanoni unda miiRos parlamentma, neba gamoxaton parlamentarebma, radgan ekonomikis realuri ganviTarebis erTaderTi pirobaa damoukidebeli safondo bazari.
– raSi gamoixateba es aucilebloba?
– rodesac bizness aqvs arCevani, bankSi krediti aiRos Tu aqciebis nawili gayidos birJaze da miiRos biznesis ganviTarebisTvis aucilebeli kapitali, maSin es biznesi Tavisufali da damoukidebelia, konkurenciasac daZlevs, radgan iolad moipovebs resursebs, Tavsac gaitans da produqciasac Seqmnis. dovlaTis warmoebis araviTari pirobebi ar arsebobs saqarTveloSi. axla daakvirdiT, rogor aewyo jaWvi – konkurentunarian produqcias ver vqmniT, amitom varT rusul bazarze mibmuli da mTlianad damokidebuli importze.
– xom gaxsna evropam CvenTvis bazari?
– ra azri aqvs, iq rom gaitano, gacilebiT meti resursi, konkurentunariani saqonlis warmoebis praqtika da finansebi gWirdeba. yvelaferi erTmaneTzea gadabmuli da garTulebuli. erTi xelis mosmiT verafers Secvli. aqve imasac vityvi, rom warmoebis waxalisebac cud donezea Cvens ekonomikaSi. saxelmwifos mier ekonomikis gakontrolebis gamo uamravi kompleqsuri problemaa, rasac katastrofamde mivyavarT.
– ekonomika arc wina xelisuflebebis dros iyo aRzevebuli. ratom ar hyofnis Cvens egreT wodebul saSualo fenas xelfasi, Tu bil geitsis Semdeg aRarc viTvlebiT `saSualod~?
– sajaro moxeleebi ar warmoadgenen am fenas. Cveni `saSualo fena~ damokidebulia mmarTvel elitebze, arada, damoukidebeli unda iyos da Tavad SeZlos kapitalis gamomuSaveba. ukeT rom agixsnaT: revoluciamde kulakoba warmoadgenda saSualo fenas.
– anu saSualo fena saqarTveloSi arc ki arsebobs?
– im niSnebiT Tu SevafasebT, rac zemoT vTqvi, gamodis, rom ar gvyavs, magram SeiZleba am mimarTulebiT emigrantebis nawili miviCnioT saSualo klasad, romelmac moaxerxa Tavisufal ekonomikebSi adaptireba da damoukideblad, sakuTari SromiT evropasa da aSS-Si axerxebs finansebis gamomuSavebas. amaT garda, saqarTveloSi, praqtikulad, damoukidebeli saSualo klasi ar arsebobs, aqedan gamomdinare, arc samuSao adgilebi gvaqvs. msoflio praqtikas Tu gaviTvaliswinebT, samuSao adgilebis 80%-s qmnis swored saSualo klasi. wvril biznesSic saqmdebian moqalaqeebi didwilad da am fenis Seqmnili dovlaTi Seadgens seriozul Zalas. Cven, ase vTqvaT, calmxrivi ekonomika gvaqvs. msxvili kapitalistebi arian bankirebi da sxva, maT ki samuSao Zalis mxolod 20%-is dasaqmeba SeuZliaT, radgan meti arc sWirdebaT. iqmneba anomaliuri situacia. amas emateba isic, rom saqarTvelom ganze gawia msoflio savaWro organizaciis wesebi da ormxrivi partnioruli urTierTobebi daamyara ruseTTan.
– Tqven sakuTar feisbuqverdze imasac acxadebT – moskovi `Savi bazris~ citadeliao. . .
– ki, namdvilad aris, radgan upatronod darCenili simdidre, oligarqiuli kapitali gadanawilebulia sabWoeTis yofil teritoriebze. rusi oligarqi Zalian ucnauri vinmea – kremlis `prikazCikia~, radgan mas miandes garkveuli sfero, magaliTad, oleg deripaska aluminis magnatia da am biznesis meSveobiT atarebs moskovis politikas sxva qveynebSi. oligarqebi sakuTari kapitaliT imdenad did gavlenas axdenen politikaze, rom maTze, ruseTis winaaRmdeg sanqciebis mizeziT, nadirobac ki gamoacxades. metsac getyviT, iseTi situacia Seiqmna, rom oligarqebis klasi ayalibebs im narativebs, rasac ruseTis federacia qmnis. aqedan gamomdinareobs yvela ubedureba, rac gvWirs, radgan saqarTveloc am oligarqiuli sistemis nawili gaxda.
– gindaT TqvaT, rom moskovSi birJebi ar aris?
– rogor ara – sasaqonloc, safondoc da savaluto birJebic aris, magram SezRuduli aqvT saqmianoba, damoukidebloba ar aqvT, kontroldeba kremlis da msxvili kapitalis mier. igive sWirs CineTsac. iqauri birJebis samarTavi berketebi aqvs politikur xelmZRvanelobas, riTac SeuZlia iqonios maTze gavlena. demokratiuli qveynebi imiT gansxvavdebian avtokratiulebisagan, rom saxelmwifos ar aqvs wvdoma ekonomikaze.
– anu saxelmwifos romelime dargis ganviTarebis mizniT Carevac ar SeuZlia?
– SeuZlia, magram mxolod bazris gavliT. magaliTad, `samsungis~ kompaniis 37% Sesyiduli hqonda saxelmwifos. rogorc ki warmoeba ganviTarda, `samsungma~ sakuTari wili misgan gamoisyida, anu saxelmwifom, rogorc bazris monawilem, aqciebi Seisyida, daexmara kompanias da ufro maRal fasad gayida es aqciebi. orive mxare mogebuli darCa. amiT imis Tqma minda, rom sabazro ekonomika sasicocxlod gvWirdeba.
– gardamaval periods rogor gauZlebs Rataki qveyana da misi mosaxleoba?
– mesmis, bevrs aqvs msgavsi SiSi, magram, sabednierod, es azri mcdaria. rogorc ki dakanondeba fasiani qaRaldebis komisiis (safondo bazris regulatoris) damoukidebloba da, paralelurad, miiReben maRali klasis kanonebs finansuri sferos dasacavad, bankebs aukrZalaven komerciul saqmianobas, Svilobili kompaniebis yolas da birJebis daarsebaSi monawileobas, yvelaferi dalagdeba, anu birJebs aarseben Tavad kompaniebi, xolo komisia birJebis moqmedebis wesebs awesebs. amis uzarmazari gamocdilebaa msoflioSi, uars aravin gvetyvis, pirvel xanebSi yvela dagvexmareba. martiv magaliTs mogiyvanT: yovelwliurad qarTvelebi totalizatorebsa da kazinoebSi daaxloebiT or miliard aSS dolars xarjaven. eseni SeiZleba gamzadebul investorebad CavTvaloT. am fuliT mxolod kazinoTa mepatroneebi xeiroben, arada, SesaZlebelia am xalxis gadamisamarTeba safondo birJaze, igive, anakliis portis Tu sxva kompaniebis aqciebis SeTavazeba, anu rogorc xdeba mTel civilizebul samyaroSi. brokerebis meSveobiT moqalaqeebi yiduloben aqciebs da wlis bolos iReben mogebas am kompaniebTan erTad. anu, rogorc ki safondo birJebi daiwyebs funqcionirebas, fundamenturad sxva ganzomilebasa da ganwyobaSi gadadis qveyana. maqsimum 2 weliwadSi, saqarTvelos ver icnobT. fermeris mier warmoebuli mosavali, sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi, gayidulia mosavlis moyvanamde, anu makleri amyarebs urTierTobas fermerTan, debs masTan kontraqts, romelsac yidis sasaqonle birJaze. fermeris saqme mxolod mosavlis moweva da sasaqonle saxiT myidvelisTvis daxvedrebaa, ar fiqrobs, sad gaasaRos da ra qnas, rom ar daulpes. am viTarebaSi nebismieri nawarmis gayidvis problema moixsneba, Tan fassac daadgens bazari anu safondo birJebi, romelic Tanamedrove msoflios sabazro moedans warmoadgens. isic gasaTvaliswinebelia, rom evropis bazarze da natoSi aravin SegviSvebs, Tu ar gveqneba Tavisufali sabazro ekonomika. es imis garantoria, rom saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis sistemaSi xelisufleba mkafiod iqneba gamoyofili, xolo sasamarTlo, mxolod kanonis uzenaesobas aRiarebs, anu sabazro ekonomika demokratiuli wyobilebis fundamentia.
– rogor xedavT geopolitikur gadanawilebas ruseT-ukrainis omis dasrulebis Semdeg?
– geopolitikuri wesrigi yvelaze mTavari sakiTxia. ruseTis federaciam sabWoTa kavSiris dangrevis Semdeg daikava moZme respublikebis teritoriebis is nawilebi, romlis okupirebac SeZlo. igive ukrainaSi, saqarTveloSi, moldovaSi… amas safuZvlad edo moskovis samomavlo geopolitikuri mizani, rac gulisxmobda Cveni qveynebis normaluri ganviTarebisTvis xelis SeSlas, anu tvirTebis gadazidvas aziidan evropaSi da piriqiT, moskovis gverdis avliT. kremls rom ar daekarga am procesebSi hegemonis roli, swored amitom moaxdina zemoxsenebuli miwebis okupacia. sabWoTa kavSiris dangrevis Semdeg, 2008 wlis agvistos omamde, evropa da ruseTi, kontinentis wesrigis garantorebad miiCneodnen, rac gulisxmobda erTpolusian msoflios. anu yvela aSS-s ekiTxeboda Wkuas. saqarTvelo-ruseTis agvistos omma ki dasavleTs daanaxa, rom ruseTi garantori ar iqneba. aSkara gaxda, kremls aRmosavleT evropaze batonobis aRdgena surs, risi mcdelobac swored CvenTan omiT daiwyo, amitom erTpolusiani wesrigi Secvala mravalpolarulma samyarom da kontinentze daiwyo egreT wodebuli aRmosavleT partnioroba, kerZod, aRmosavleT evropis qveynebi xdebian evropis geopolitikuri wesrigis garantorebi. amis Semdeg britaneTi gadis evrokavSiridan da axlaxan Tavadac naxeT, rom saTaveSi Caudga aRmosavleT evropas, Seikra britaneTi-poloneTi-ukraina. Semdegi nabiji aris saqarTvelo, radgan Cvens gareSe es RerZi ver Sedgeba. amas hqvia abreSumis gzis aRdgena.
– mainc, ratom daiwyo ruseT-ukrainis omi?
– moskovs, liberaluri administraciis pirobebSi, yvela variantSi mouwevda sanqciebiT, zewoliT, iZulebiT daetovebina rogorc saqarTvelo, ise ukraina da moldova. yvela am qveynidan mas jarebi unda gaeyvana. kremlma es kargad icoda da axali msoflio wesrigis xelSesaSlelad gaaCaRa omi, Tumca isicaa, rom sapirispiro Sedegi miiRo, axali geopolitikuri wesrigi daaCqara am barbarosuli, usazizRresi konfliqtiT. ruseTma yvelanairi niRabi Camoixsna, radgan nebismieri xerxiT unda imperiis gadarCena. imperia ver gadarCeba verc omiT da verc mSvidobiT, vinaidan gadawyvetileba ukve miRebulia – rodesac baideni da jonsoni acxadeben, rom ruseTi ukrainaSi ver gaimarjvebs, es niSnavs, rom ver gaimarjvebs, amitom udgas ukrainelebs mTeli msoflio gverdiT, radgan swored ukrainaSi unda daimsxvres es imperia sabolood, romlis adgilas Seiqmneba bevri axali eTnikuri saxelmwifo: iakutebis, CeCnebis, daRestnelebis, baSkirebis. . . axla Cven Tvalwin xdeba is, rac xuTi saukune ar gveRirsa qarTvelebs – `abreSumis gza~ aRdgeba 500 wlis Semdeg! konstantinopolis dacemis Semdeg, rogorc ki daiketa es gza, saqarTvelo darCa geopolitikur orRobeSi. rogorc Cven, ise kievs erTiani da mTliani saxelmwifos qonis Sansi geopolitikurad ar gvqonda, amitom Cveni yvela mcdeloba iseve iyo ganwiruli, rogorc is Cveni pirveli respublikac.
– da axla gvaqvs yvelafris aRdgenis Sansi?
– namdvilad! axla kontinentis mTavari RerZi, moskovis nacvlad, kievi da Tbilisi xdeba. evropidan aziaSi yvelaze mokle da momgebiani gza kievsa da Tbilisze gadis. kontinentis qveynebis interesebSia, normaluri gziT ivaWros evropam aziasTan. aqve arc is dagaviwydeT, rom abreSumis gza ver Sedgeba, Tu ukrainac da saqarTveloc ar viqnebiT liberal-demokratiuli anu globaluri Tavisufali bazris monawile qveynebi. abreSumis gza aris Cveni gadarCenac, Cveni saxelmwifoebriobis arsebobac, Tavisuflebis garantiaca da mniSvnelobac, radgan ukve Cven warvsdgebiT sxva qveynebis winaSe bevri ramis garantorebad.

