,,პიარის ნაცვლად საქმეს თუ არ მიხედა უკრაინის მთავრობამ, კატასტროფა მოხდება მთელი ქვეყნისთვის”
ირმა ცეცხლაძე 27 48 93 –
gTavazobT intervius politolog soso manjaviZesTan. misi TqmiT, ukraina-ruseTis konfliqtma piks miaRwia, ris Semdegac SesaZloa, movlenebi sul sxva mimarTulebiT warimarTos.
– batono soso, ra viTarebaa dResdReobiT ukrainis frontze, ras gvetyviT mariupolze?
– mariupoli rusulma armiam aiRo. ukrainuli Zalebi Tavmoyrilia `azovstalis~ qarxnis teritoriaze, iq, ZiriTadad, azovis polkis gadarCenili nawilia. Tavad qarxana ganTavsebulia 11 kvadratul kilometrze. es aris uzarmazari Senoba-nagebobebis kompleqsi miwisqveSa saTavsoebiT, gvirabebiT da komunikaciebiT. masze legendebi dadis. saubroben, rom iq aris biolaboratoria, sadac mimdinareobda eqsperimentebi. rusebi `azovis dajgufebis~ garda, axseneben 400-mde ucxoel mebrZols, romlebsac xelmZRvanelobs ori ucxoeli generali, erTi kanadelia, xolo meore – amerikeli. cxadia, es dazustebuli informacia ar aris. aris versia, rom `azovstalis~ Sturmi ar daiwyo ara mxolod imitom, rom ufrTxildebian iq myofi mSvidobiani moqalaqeebis da jariskacebis sicocxles, aramed ganzraxuli aqvT ucxoeli `boevikebis~ da maRalCinosnebis tyved ayvana. isic iTqva, rom rusebi apireben saCvenebeli sasamarTlo procesis mowyobas.
– nuTu aravin daexmareba?
– iq mdgomareoba Zalian mZimea. teritoria mTlianad blokirebulia. vfiqrob, amaod iTxoven videomimarTvebSi Svelas azovis batalionis da `azovstalis~ ufrosebi. erT-erTma maTganma – kalinam romis papsac ki mimarTa, romlis eparqiasac warmoadgens dasavleT ukrainis uniaturi eklesia.
– am dros sad aris ukrainis mTavroba?
– is mudmiv reJimSia CarTuli, am xalxs gmirebs uwodebs da agulianebs, deklarirebulad uWers mxars am mdgomareobaSi aRmoCenil jars, magram realurad ver exmareba. saubaria imazec, rom ukrainis egreT wodebuli nacbatalionebi, azovi da azovis dedaqalaqad wodebuli mariupoli Tavidanve gawires, radgan Tavad zelenskis eSinia nacionalebis, romlebic, aucileblobis SemTxvevaSi, iaraRiTac ki aRwevdnen politikur miznebs.
– mainc ramden xans gauZlebs blokadas `azovstali~, resursebic xom amoewuraT?
– ramden xans gauZleben, Zneli saTqmelia. videomimarTvebidan Cans, rom bevri hyavT daWrili, uTavdebaT provizia da tyvia-wamali, artileria da mZime teqnikac samizneebis qveS moeqca, xolo yvelafer amis gareSe, rac unda gamocdili da mamaci iyos mebrZoli, didxans alyas ver gauZlebs. zRvidanac da xmeleTidanac dablokili arian da mxolod sakuTari, SezRuduli biologiuri SesaZleblobebis imedad rCebian blokadaSi, ixangrZliveben sicocxles, ician, Tu tyved Cabardnen, aravin daindobs.
– sxva mimarTulebebze ras gvetyviT?
– maT aq detalurad ver gavarCevT, Tumca zogadi suraTi aseTia: viTareba kardinalurad Seicvala, igulixmeba ruseTis armiis taqtika, moxda im katastrofuli Secdomebis kupireba, romlebzec wina interviuebSi vsaubrobdiT. rusebma SeZles Zalebis gadafaseba da iyeneben upiratesobebs (saartilerio, saraketo, aviaciis gaaqtiureba, specdaniSnulebis razmebis muSaoba mowinaaRmdegis zurgSi, dazverva da sxva), mokled, rusuli samxedro manqana Cadga mwyobrSi da movida muSa mdgomareobaSi, rac mZimed aisaxa ukrainul armiaze.
– acxadeben, rom samxedro upiratesoba ukrainis mxaresaa.
– samwuxarod, umZimes viTarebaSi arian ukraineli mebrZolebic da mosaxleobac. mimaCnia, rom omi, zogadad, tragediaa da arc erTi xalxis interesebSi ar Sedis. aqedan gamomdinare, vambob, rac realobaa da obieqturad xdeba. yvela am Wrilidan unda miudges, Tu surs realoba aRiqvas, magram Tu mxolod propagandistuli narativis zemoqmedebis qveS surs yofna da sakuTari emociebis frqveva, es calke sakiTxia, radgan omi ar aris fexburTi da stadionze aRtkinebis Tu gulgatexilobis emociis gamoxatva. samxedro konfliqti arc Soua – `brZola wesebis gareSe~ , sadac gaTiSul mowinaaRmdeges msaji aCerebs. aq sul sxvagvari omi wavida, msxverplmac moimata. ar acxadeben amas, magram arsebobs damoukidebeli sainformacio wyaroebi, romelTa SedarebiTi analiziTac SegviZlia msjeloba. oms Tavisi kanonebi aqvs. misi mimdinareobisas daRupulTa zust raodenobas ar acxadeben demoralizaciis Tavidan acilebis mizniT, magram ararealisturi cifrebis gamocxadeba uares Sedegebs iwvevs, vinaidan aRaravis sjera xelisuflebis sityvis. es ufro met moralur zians ayenebs qveyanas da mosaxleobas.
– orive mxare igives akeTebs?
– diax, magram am SemTxvevaSi, zianis miyenebis kuTxiT xazs gavusvam ukrainas, vinaidan aq ismis kontrproduqtiuli propaganda. amas vambob ukrainaSi myofi megobrebis mosmenis Semdeg, iqaur blogerebsac Tvalyurs vadevneb. maTi ganwyoba mZimea imitom, rom arestoviCis da zelenskis narativi sruliad acdenilia realobas, xolo absurduli propagandis Zaladobrivi zomebiT uzrunvelyofa kidev ufro amwvavebs situacias. piaris prevalireba realobaze da virtualur samyaroSi cxovreba axali ar aris, magram mediam da socialurma qselebma es fenomeni gabatonebuli gaxada. adamianebis did nawils ukve aRarc SeuZlia sxvagvarad cxovreba da darwmunebulia, rom Tu `daalaiqa~ da raRac moiwona, amiT is moxdeba, rac mas unda. amaze anekdoti maxsendeba: guruli SaSvs esvris, aacilebs da etyvis, Cems TvalSi mkvdari xaro. ai, am fenomens nergavs socialuri qselebi miliardobiT adamianis cxovrebaSi.
– absoluturad sxvagvar informaciebs avrceleben sxva analitikosebi. . .
– esaa saqme, arada, faqtia isic, rom mimdinareobs ukrainis ukrainelebisgan daclis procesi. Cemi azria, rom es xdeba SeTanxmebiT, raSic didwilad monawileoben, erTi SexedviT, dapirispirebuli mxareebi. gutereSma Tqva, 12 milioni ukraineli datovebs qveyanaso. garda amisa, didia Sida gadaadgilebebic. zogi 5 milions ambobs, zogic – 7-s, veravin daTvala. amave dros, ukrainam miiRo kanoni, romlis mixedviT qveynidan gasuli mamakacebi veRar dabrundebian, vinaidan maT mimarT, dezertirobis gamo, daiwyeba sisxlis samarTlebrivi devna, anu mivediT iqamde, saidanac daviwyeT – faqtobrivad, ukraina icleba ukrainelebisgan. amave dros, marTlac kolosaluri msxverplia, rusuli samxedro manqana mZlavrad amuSavda da xorcsakepi funqcia CarTo, iyenebs Zlier letalur iaraRs. saqme gvaqvs did tragediasTan da orive mxaris siZulvilis morevi sul ufro da ufro umarTavi xdeba, rac gamoricxavs raime tipis pozitiur gadawyvetilebas. xalxic im donezea egzaltirebuli, rom rTulad warmosadgenia am procesis SeCereba.
– yovelive amis gaTvaliswinebiT – Tqveni prognozi.
– daviwyoT imiT, rom rusebi sakmaod ucnaurad moqmedeben. kerZod, kievidan rom gavidnen da daiwyes Zalebis gadajgufeba donbasisken, cxadia, unda ezrunaT, rom donbasis dajgufebisken mimavali gzebi gadaeketaT, SeeCerebinaT cocxali Zala da tvirTebi. amas ratomRac ar akeTebdnen, razec rusul pablikebSi wamovida agresia. mTel rig telegram-arxebSi (ara mxolod) da samxedro saeqsperto wreebSi irCeoda es sakiTxi da karnaxobdnen, ra unda gaekeTebinaT komunikaciebis dasarRvevad. rodesac saaviacio upiratesoba aqvs erT mxares, Tundac, rkinigzis wyobidan gamoyvanas didi Zalisxmeva ar sWirdeba. magram rusebi amas araTu ar akeTebdnen, ucnaurad asabuTebdnen kidec. kerZod, ambobdnen, ar gvinda ganadgureba, Setevas rom daviwyebT, mere Cveni aRsadgeni darCeba es xidebic da rkinigzaco. mokled rom vTqvaT, sabolood yurad iRes rCevebi da daiwyes rkinigzis da xidebis dabombva. magaliTad, dabombes xidi, romlis meSveobiTac amaragebdnen ukrainis armias odesis olqidan. im SemTxvevaSi, Tu rusebi gadauketaven gzebs, komunikacias danarCen ukrainasTan da e.w. qvabebSi, alyaSi moaqceven, datoveben amuniciis, tyvia-wamlis, iaraRis da sakvebis gareSe donbasis dajgufebas, igi iseTive mdgomareobaSi aRmoCndeba, rogorc `azovstalSi~ blokirebuli azovis polki, oRond gacilebiT did masStabebSi. Tumca, aq sxva niuansebicaa. ruseTis armia SezRuduli raodenobiTaa warmodgenili. rogorc ukrainuli mxare acxadebs, mxolod 90 batalionia Seyvanili, TiToeulSi – 700-1000 kacamde. es raodenoba ar aris sakmarisi mTeli ukrainis gasakontroleblad, magram vinaidan ukeTesi SeiaraReba aqvT da iniciativac maT xelSia, Tanac mariupoli aRar ikavebs did Zalebs, maT SeuZliaT gadamwyveti upiratesoba moipovon donbasis mimarTulebiT da Tuki raime gansakuTrebuli ar moxda, alyaSi moaqcion ukrainuli armia, romelsac deblokaciis saSualeba ar gaaCnia da mouwevs am gamagrebul raionebSi brZola. iqidan gamomdinare, rom ufro da ufro akldebaT mobiluri teqnika, artileria da aviacia, aRiniSneba saartilerio Wurvebis SimSilic, sirTules ar warmoadgens imis gaTvla, ra bedi elis am dajgufebas. piaris nacvlad saqmes Tu ar mixeda ukrainis mTavrobam, katastrofa moxdeba mTeli ukrainisTvis, radgan aq ganadgurdeba sakadro armia, axlis Seqmna da kvalificiuri kadrebis gamoZebna ki dRevandel teqnologiur omSi Zalian Znelia – sabrZolo moqmedebebis sawarmoeblad seriozuli momzadeba sWirdeba rogorc jariskacebs, ise saSualo da maRali Cinis oficrobas.
– ukve ganicdis ukraina kadrebis naklebobas?
– aSkarad SeiniSneba, rom ufro da ufro moumzadebeli samxedro nawilebiT uwevs mas omi. cnobili faqtia, yvelaze swrafad swored gamoucdeli kadrebi iRupebian. ai, es viTarebaa donbasis mimarTulebiT. aq ruseTis amocana gasagebia. unda donbasis dajgufeba alyaSi moaqcios, paralelurad ki aiRos nikolaevi, odesa da gavides dnestrispireTisken (xersoni aRebuli aqvs), romlis winaaRmdegac ukrainelebi imuqrebian samxedro operaciis dawyebas.
– dnestrispireTis regionSi afeTqebebis seriis Semdeg, moldovam usafrTxoebis zomebi gaaZliera. amis Sesaxeb moldovis prezidentma maia sandum ganacxada.
– Tuki moldova daTanxmda ukrainasTan koordinirebulad CaerTos dnestrispireTis sawinaaRmdego operaciaSi, iqaurobis bedi gadawyvetili iqneba, radgan dnestrispireTi ver SeZlebs or frontze oms, miT umetes, moldovas samxedro-teqnikur daxmarebas aucileblad gauwevs rumineTi. ruseTisTvis es umZimesi samxedro-politikuri marcxi iqneba, ris acilebasac yvela saSualebiT ecdeba. aqve vityvi, Tuki ukrainelebma gadawyvites, rom Tavad, moldovis gareSe SeuZliaT am amocanis Sesruleba, SeiZleba, ver miiRon sasurveli Sedegi.
– Tuki dnestrispireTSi ori fronti gaixsna?
– amazec aris saubari, rom ruminuli samxedro SenaerTebi koncentrirdeba moldovis sazRvarze. arc is dagaviwydeT, rom Tu moldova Seva rumineTis SemadgenlobaSi, is miiRebs natos `qolgas~. maia sandum ganacxada, rom moldovas ar hyavs brZolisunariani armia da amitom ver Caebmeba omSi, Tumca sxva gancxadebebic ismis. aqedan gamomdinare, Tuki raRac formiT ori fronti gaixsna, mZime aRmoCndeba dnestrispireTis mdgomareoba, SesaZloa, Zalian swrafad ganadgurdes kidec.
– Tuki ukraina marto aRmoCndeba dnestrispireTis pirispir?
– maSin dnestrispireTs ukeTesi viTareba eqneba, radgan, rogorc Tavad acxadebs, 65 aTasia misi samobilizacio resursi, risic ar mjera. albaT, 30-aTasian dajgufebas mouyris Tavs. `kolbasnoeSi~ aris evropaSi erT-erTi yvelaze didi samxedro sawyobi aTasobiT tona sabrZolo masaliT da im SemTxvevaSi, Tu am sabrZolo manqanis gamarTva moaswres, mZime brZolebi daiwyeba. ruseTic Seecdeba, forsireba gaukeTos sabrZolo moqmedebebs nikolaevis da odesis mimarTulebiT, gaWras da gavides anklavisken, aseve daixmarebs aviacias da saraketo dartymebs, radgan moskovisTvis dnestrispireTis dakargva udidesi moraluri marcxi iqneba, rac, Sesabamisad, omis eskalacias, axal etapze gadasvlas gamoiwvevs. aseve, poloneTi emzadeba ukrainis qalaq lvovis dakavebisTvis, kerZod, samSvidobo Zalebis egidiT apirebs iq Sesvlas, radgan Tvlis, rom es misi miwebia. aqve aRiniSneba belarusuli javSanteqnikis gadaadgileba sazRvrisaken, radgan Tu poloneTi Seva lvovSi, gverdze ver gadgeba belarusi. aq uamravi niuansia, ukve naTlad Cans, rom ukraina am omidan yvelaze metad dazaralebuli gamova, radgan misi daSlis da gadanawilebis safrTxe didia.
– ra pozicias ikavebs am urTules viTarebaSi zelenski da misi gundi?
– ukraina gaxda geopolitikuri dapirispirebis msxverpli, Tan ukrainis movlenebi ar unda ganvixiloT izolirebulad. daZabuloba planetaruli masStabisaa da kulminacias uaxlovdeba sxvadasxva wertilSi. TurqeTi SeiWra erayis qurTistanSi da qurTebis sakiTxis `saboloo gadawyvetas~ cdilobs. irani ramdenime kviraSi atomuri iaraRis mflobeli SeiZleba gaxdes. taivanma daiwyo raketebis masobrivi warmoeba, romelsac SeuZlia Sanxais da sxva Cinuri provinciebis dabombva, situacia feTqebadsaSiSia balkaneTSi da ase Semdeg. ukrainis xelisuflebac am globalur procesSia CarTuli, igi ar aris damoukidebeli da asrulebs sakuTari geopolitikuri patronebis dakveTas, sxva sakiTxia, vis SekveTas asruleben es `SemkveTebi~.
