რატომ არის ნაწილობრივი მობილიზაცია კრემლისთვის განაჩენი?
ლაშა ხომერიკი 593 50 82 69 –
dRevandel msoflioSi mravalmxriv dramatuli viTareba Seiqmna: ruseT-ukrainis omi, rusi mosaxleobis migrireba sxvadasxva qveyanaSi, maT Soris saqarTveloSi, Suaaziis saxelmwifoebis distancireba ruseTis orbitasTan, samxreT kavkasiaSi aSS-isa da TurqeTis pozicirebis gamyareba (yarabaxis omi amis magaliTia), natos gafarToeba da evrokavSiris gavlenis ganvrcoba postsabWoTa qveynebze, rac garkveulwilad, msoflios axal gadanawilebas cxadyofs . . .
miuxedavad afxazeTis, cxinvalis regionis da yirimis okupaciisa, msoflio wesrigi ruseTis sasargeblod ar icvleboda, saqarTvelo, ukraina da moldova evroatlantikur struqturebSi integraciisken qmediT nabijebs dgamen, rac ruseTisTvis miuRebelia. misi interesia, aRidginos 1991 wlis Semdeg dakarguli gavlenebi centralur da aRmosavleT evropaSi, Sua aziasa da samxreT kavkasiaSi. es ukanaskneli evropisTvis alternatiuli energotranzitisa da axali abreSumis gzis – `Sua koridoris~ marSrutis ganviTarebis kuTxiT mniSvnelovan strategiul kvanZs warmoadgens. moskovis TvalTaxedviT, Tavisi miznebis misaRwevad aucileblad sWirdeba `axlo aRmosavleTSi~ rusuli gavlenebis aRdgena, amisTvis igi moiTxovda da moiTxovs ara mxolod evroatlantikuri struqturebis gafarToebis Sewyvetas, aramed mis ukan daxevas 1997 wlis poziciaze, rac dasavleTisTvis miuRebelia mravali faqtoridan gamomdinare. jer erTi, aRmosavleT evropa, rom aRaraferi vTqvaT postsabWoTa qveynebze, mTlianad ruseTis gavlenis qveS moeqceva da meore – evropa mTlianad ruseTze energodamokidebuli gaxdeba. am mxriv dasavleTs regionSi ori mniSvnelovani mizani aqvs: uzrunvelyos natosa da evrokavSiris qveynebis usafrTxoeba da Seqmnas ruseTisgan damoukidebeli energo da savaWro-satransporto derefani. amisTvis aucilebelia evroatlantikur struqturebSi miiwvion aRmosavleT evropis is qveynebi, romlebsac centraluri aziis regionTan damakavSirebeli sazRvao da saxmeleTo gzebis ganviTarebis SesaZlebloba aqvs. am TvalsazrisiT saqarTvelos da ukrainis evrokavSirSi gawevrianebiT dasavleTi miiRebs wmindad `evropul energoderefans~, romliTac SeZlebs, ruseTisgan damoukidebelad, kaspiis da iranis energomatareblebis transportirebas evropul bazarze, dasavleTis swored es dividendebi miuRebelia ruseTisTvis da amitomac wamoiwyo omi ukrainis winaaRmdeg. ismis kiTxva: ra aCvena msoflios ukrainaSi omis meSvide Tvem? albaT, mTeli msoflio da miT umetes ruseTi ver warmoidgenda ukrainelTa aseT Tavdadebas, brZolisunarianobas. xumroba xom ar aris, simZlavriT msoflios meore armias (am dromde es ase aRiqmeboda) ukrainelebi ara marto umklavdebian, aramed mniSvnelovan warmatebas aRweven frontis xazze. ukraineli xalxis winaaRmdegobam, aseve mokavSireTa erTsulovnebam, maTma samxedro-ekonomikurma, diplomatiurma daxmarebam da mTeli msoflios reaqciam aCvena, rom solidarobas da Tavisuflebisken swrafvas veranairi armia da samxedro upiratesoba ver gadawonis. pirdapir unda iTqvas, ruseTi ar eloda ukrainis mxridan aseT Rirseul winaaRmdegobas da arc amgvar sayovelTao Tanadgomas msoflios wamyvani qveynebisgan, romlebmac uari Tqves ekonomikuri sikeTeebis miRebaze da umkacresi sanqciebi dauweses ruseTs. putins egona, rom raxan gauvida 2008 wels – saqarTveloSi, 2014 wels yirimSi SeWra da teritoriebis mitaceba, 2022 welsac igive moxdeboda, magram amjerad ukrainelebi momzadebulni da dasavleTic ufro principuli aRmoCnda. Tamamad SeiZleba iTqvas, rom ukrainaSi dasavleTi eomeba ruseTs da rogorc mosalodneli iyo, sasworis pina dasavleTisken ixreba. amas mowmobs Tundac is, rom ruseTma nawilobrivi mobilizacia gamoacxada. am mimarTebiT eqspertebi msjeloben, ras niSnavs nawilobrivi mobilizacia da ratom aris is kremlisTvis ganaCeni? TavidaTavi is gaxlavT, rom omis Svidi Tvis ganmavlobaSi ruseTma dakarga sakuTari armiis yvelaze Zlieri da brZolisunariani qvedanayofebi, omis pirvelive kvirebSi ukrainam miwasTan gaaswora isini. samxedro eqspertebis TqmiT, brZolisunariani sajariso nawilebis Seqmnas daaxloebiT xuTi Tve sWirdeba, am xnis ganmavlobaSi, cxadia, ukraina uqmad ar iqneba da brZolis velze warmatebis miRwevas Seecdeba. garda amisa, aris mniSvnelovani garemoeba, rac gasaTvaliswinebelia: ruseTSi bolos nikoloz meorem gabeda mobilizaciis gamocxadeba da mere rac moxda, cnobilia, ruseTma 1914 wels iaponiasTan waago omi, mere pirvel msoflio omSi damarcxda da gamoqceulma rusma jariskacebma sakuTar qveyanaSi daamxes mefis mTavroba. moxdeba Tu ara analogiuri ram amjerad, Znelia Tqma, Tumca cxadia, rom ruseTi ukrainaSi marcxisken midis.
Aaxlaxan, sakuTari mosaxleobis gulis mosagebad putinma ukrainis oTxi regionis aneqsireba daakanona, amave dros, daemuqra kievs da dasavleTs, Tumca pasuxmac ar daayovna – limani ukrainam gaaTavisufla, Tanac ganacxadi Seitana natoSi daCqarebuli wesiT gawevrianebis Taobaze. albaT moskovi varaudobs, rom ukraina ver gabedavs doneckis regionze Sturms, Tumca kievma ganacxada, rom ukraina okupirebuli teritoriebis deokupaciisTvis bolomde ibrZolebs.
swored amas usvams xazs prezidenti zelenski: `araviTari kompromisi rusebTan, ukrainam yvela warTmeuli teritoria unda daibrunos da es asec iqneba~. Tavis mxriv aSS-is saxelmwifo mdivanma gaafrTxila moskovi, rom arc ki ifiqros atomuri iaraRis gamoyenebaze, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, Sedegebi ruseTisTvis savalalo iqneba. arc isaa dasamali, rom ruseTis avtoriteti msoflioSi Seilaxa, mas aRar darCa mokavSireebi. man xom somxeTi gawira yarabaxis omSi, Sua azia ki praqtikulad dauTmo CineTs. . . tajikeTSi gamarTuli amaswinandeli forumi swored ruseTis dakninebis TvalsaCino magaliTi iyo. albaT putini verc ki warmoidginda, rom masTan erTi-erTze Sexvedrisas yirgizeTis prezidenti daaxloebiT xuT wuTs acdevinebda. adre mas analogiurad moeqca erdoRanic, rac swored imas niSnavs, rom ruseTis avtoriteti msoflioSi ecema. CineTi, indoeTi da dasavleTi mouwodebs ruseTs, Sewyvitos omi ukrainaSi, razec moskovi jerjerobiT ar Tanxmdeba. eqspertebi saomari moqmedebebis dasrulebas, savaraudod, 2023 wlis gazafxulze varaudoben, anu dasavleTis mizania, samxedro TvalsazrisiT ruseTi gamofitos da ekonomikurad daasustos, rom veRarasodes SeZlos axali omis wamowyeba da mainc, Cndeba kiTxva: ram ganapiroba ruseTis kraxi ukrainaSi? rogorc cnobilia, ukrainas mTeli msoflio exmareba, amzadeben ukrainel jariskacebs natos standartebiT, rac mniSvnelovani faqtoria omis msvlelobisas. rogorc amboben, ruseTi meoce saukunis Sesabamisad ibrZvis, ukraina ki 21-e saukunis Sesaferisad awarmoebs samxedro operaciebs, Sedegic saxezea – ukraina kontrSetevazea gadasuli, xarkovis regioni mTlianad gaaTavisufla okupantebisgan, rusebi mxolod doneckis da luganskis 70 procents da mariupolsa da xersons akontroleben. aranakleb mniSvnelovan rols asrulebs ruseTis mimarT dawesebuli sanqciebi. es komponenti ruseTis dasustebas Zalian uwyobs xels. xSirad kiTxuloben – sanqciebis gamkacreba Tu SeiZleba? ra Tqma unda, SeiZleba, jer racionaluri sanqciebia, seriozuli sanqciebi win aris. magaliTad, SeiZleba vivaraudoT blokada, samxedro operaciebic. yvelaze didi sanqcia iqneba, Tu haagis saerTaSoriso sasamarTloSi wardgenili dasabuTebuli bralis SemTxvevaSi, gamoitanen putinis gamamtyunebel ganaCens da saerTaSoriso damnaSaved cnoben. amas moiTxoven baltiispireTis respublikebis liderebi. bevrs SeiZleba kiTxva gauCndes – daakaveben Tu ara putins, rogor aRsruldeba ganaCeni? amas mniSvneloba ar aqvs, mTavaria, rom qveyanas eyoleba haagis sasamarTlos mier saerTaSoriso damnaSaved cnobili pirveli piri da es ukve ara marto konkretuli pirovnebis, aramed mTeli qveynis diskreditaciaa. saeWvoa, vinme molaparakebis magidasTan daujdes sisxlis saerTaSoriso sasamarTloSi gasamarTlebul pirs da masTan xeli moaweros raime SeTanxmebas, radgan amgvari SeTanxmeba iqneba diskreditirebuli. rogorc Cans, es kargad aqvT gacnobierebuli ruseTSi da cdiloben dasavleTis daSantaJebas birTvuli omiT, TiTqos da im mizeziT, rom dasavleTs surs ruseTis daSla, arada, Tavad putins mihyavs qveyana daSlisken. swored amis Taobaze saubrobs cnobili rusi mwerali mixail vulderi: `putinis gauazrebelma politikam ruseTi daSlis piras miiyvana, man Caidina danaSauli ukrainis winaaRmdeg. garda amisa, aSS-ma yvelaferi gaakeTa imisTvis, rom ruseTi da CineTi ar daaxlovdnen, am saxelmwifom praqtikulad, aRmosavleT ruseTi miiTvisa da iq Tavisi koloniebi daaarsa~. rac Seexeba sanqciebs: yirimSi ruseTis agresiis sapasuxod dawesebuli sanqciebi zRvaSi wveTi iyo imasTan dakavSirebiT, rasac dRes ruseTi imkis, ufro metic, ruseTis elita verc ki warmoidgenda, rom es sanqciebi Seexeboda, Tumca Secdnen. rogorc cnobilia, ruseTma asobiT miliardi dolari dakarga da es mxolod dasawyisia. dasavleTis saxelmwifoebTan Ria konkurenciaSi ruseTi aSkarad marcxdeba. dRes garkveulwilad, ukrainaSi wydeba evropis geopolitikuri sistemis mdgradoba – amas acxadeben eqspertebi. omis Sedegs saqarTvelos sagareo politikasa da samomavlo perspeqtivaze Zalian didi gavlena eqneba. ukrainis gamarjvebis SemTxvevaSi mogvecema Sansi, rom gavwevriandeT evrokavSirsa da natoSi, rac iqneba Cveni usafrTxoebis garantia da ekonomikuri keTildReobis yvelaze efeqturi gza. isic cxadia, rom es gza siZneleebiT da dabrkolebebiTaa savse. es gza warmatebiT rom gaviaroT, umTavresad, dasavleTis mxardaWera da Sida stabilurobaa aucilebeli, uromlisodac saqarTvelos gauWirdeba dasaxuli miznebis (okupirebuli teritoriebis deokupacia, da gawevrianeba evroatlantikur struqturebSi) asruleba.