“უკრაინა გააზრებულ თავდაცვაზეა გადასული”
ლაშა ხომერიკი 593 50 82 69 –
dResdReobiT dasavleTis da ruseTis dapirispirebis areali ukrainaa. ruseTi farTomasStabian oms awarmoebs am qveyanaSi, mizani misi dapyroba da msoflioSi axali wesrigis damyarebaa. aSS-isa da evrokavSiris mxardaWera rom ara, savaraudod, ruseTi sawadels miaRwevda da cxadia, safrTxe sxva postsabWoTa qveynebsac daemuqreboda. omis ra fazaa axla ukrainaSi da movlenebis rogor ganviTarebas unda velodoT? am da sxva aqtualur sakiTxebze vesaubrebiT dRes GlPA-s saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa institutis profesor giorgi koberiZes.
– TiTqmis erTi welia, vuyurebT ruseTis agresias ukrainis winaaRmdeg, axla omis ra fazaa?
– gamofitvis faza grZeldeba. ukrainelebi cdiloben, rusuli Semtevi nawilebi – `vagneris~ dajgufeba, sazRvao qveiTebi da sahaero sadesanto Zalebi baxmutTan da vuhledarTan gamofiton, raTa Tavad zurgSi moaxerxon dasavluri SeiaraRebis aTviseba da dasavleTis mier momzadebuli samxedroebisagan Semtevi danayofebis formireba. amas dro sWirdeba. martivad rom vTqvaT, ukraina am etapze gaazrebul Tavdacvazea gadasuli, raTa dro moigos, kargad dagegmos potenciuri kontrSeteva da gaaanalizos yvelanairi scenari. rusuli nawilebic sakmaod aqtiurebi arian mocemul realobaSi. isinic Cqaroben. miuxedavad imisa, rom ruseTSic mimdinareobs mobilizacia da asobiT aTasi axalwveulisagan qmnian danayofebs, maTi efeqturoba mainc, ufro mcirea, vidre ukrainulis, radgan aTasobiT msxverplisa da miznis Seusruleblobis fonze iZulebiT gawveuli rusi samxedros saomari SemarTeba dabalia. miT ufro, rom igi sxva qveynis teritoriaze cudad aRWurvili ibrZvis ideisTvis, romelic misTvis gaugebaria. ruseTis mocemuli upiratesoba erTia – TiTo ukrainelis sicocxle bevrad mniSvnelovania ukrainis samxedro ZalebisaTvis, vidre TiTo rusis sicocxle ruseTis samxedro ZalebisaTvis. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT – ruseTs sakuTar samxedroTagan bevris gawirva SeuZlia.
– vxedavT, rom axla ZiriTadi brZola doneckis regionSi, kerZod, baxmutis misadgomebTan mimdinareobs, ra daniSnuleba aqvs am qalaqs strategiuli TvalsazrisiT rogorc ukrainis, ise ruseTisTvis?
– baxmutis strategiuli mniSvneloba minimaluria. miuxedavad imisa, rom baxmutidan gza slavianskamde da kramatorskamde – did ukrainul qalaqebamde – miemarTeba, mainc, baxmutis irgvliv ukrainuli fortifikaciebia mowyobili da baxmutis evakuaciis SemTxvevaSi strategiuli TvalsazrisiT araferi icvleba. erTaderTi, rac baxmuts mniSvnelobas aniWebs, misi ukrainelTa mxridan fortificirebaa. martivad rom vTqvaT, meSvide Tvea, ukrainelebi icaven qalaqs, radgan swored am qalaqze iyo rusuli samxedro Zalebis umTavresi dawola. nebismieri sxva qalaqisTvis, romlis aRebasac `vagneris~ ufrosi evgeni prigoJini dasaxavda, gaimarTeboda aseTi masStaburi brZola. rusebma Tavad daiwyes maRalkoncentrirebuli Seteva bamuxtsa da mis siaxloves mdebare soledarze. Sesabamisad, ukrainelebma swored am qalaqSi Seqmnes winaaRmdegobis centrebi, romlis mizanic mowinaaRmdegis maqsimaluri gamofitva iyo da aris.
– dasavleli samxedro analitikosebi acxadeben, rom ajobebs, ukrainam baxmutisTvis brZola ar awarmoos, raTa ar gamoifitos, ras fiqrobT?
– baxmutidan gamosvla am etapze ar aris saCqaro. qalaqis gasasvlel-Sesasvleli jer kidev Riaa. Sesabamisad, alyis safrTxe ar arsebobs. amasTan, nebismieri qalaqi, romelsac datoveben ukrainelebi, isev dasabrunebeli gauxdebaT. amitom, TiToeuli qalaqis dacva mniSvnelovania. amasTan, Tuki baxmuti aiRes rusebma, Semdeg iqneba Casiv iari, kostiantinivka, an nebismieri sxva qalaqi. amitom, rac ufro Soreul wertilSi uwev winaaRmdegobas, miT ufro daculi gaqvs siRrme. Tuki baxmutis evakuacia mainc Sedga, es misi alyaSi moqcevis safrTxidan gamomdinare moxdeba. baxmutis Semdeg rusebi baxmutis momijnave Casiv iarsa da slavianksisaken mimaval CrdiloeTis gzas Seuteven. amitomaa mniSvnelovani, rom sadac rusuli nawilebis maqsimaluri koncentraciaa, swored iq moxdes maTi SeCereba.
– ruseTma mobilizacia meored gamoacxada. es mobilizebuli samxedroebi ramdenad angariSgasawevi Zalaa garkveuli miznebis misaRwevad?
– cocxali Zala mniSvnelovania nebismier omSi, magram am mobilizebulTa efeqturoba iseTi maRali ar aris, rogorc adrindelebis. axla kargad aRWurvili da gawvrTnili danayofebi igeben oms da ara cudad aRWurvili adamianTa didi masa. Tumca aRsaniSnavia isic, rom cocxal Zalas mowinaaRmdegis rigebSi SeuZlia garRveva moaxdinos da Semdgomi ieriSi ukeT gawvrTnilma samxedroebma gaagrZelon. daaxloebiT ase moxda soledarisaTvis brZolis daskvniT etapze, rodesac rusebma daaxloebiT 15-20 aTasi adamiani dakarges (daWrilebic da moklulebic), magram qalaqis aReba mainc SeZles. xangrZliv omSi cocxal masas aRar aqvs aseTi efeqturoba, radgan TiToeul mobilizebul samxedros sWirdeba saWmeli, sasmeli, SeiaraReba, maT danayofebs sWirdeba sawvavi da ase Semdeg. es ki lojistikuri Tavis tkivi-lia, rac ruseTis aqilevsis qusladaa qceuli. amasTan, cudad SeiaraRebuli, ideis armqone da demoralizebuli axalwveuli, romelic ucxo teritoriaze midis saomrad, xSir SemTxvevaSi pirveli gamorbis ukan nebismieri sirTulis SemTxvevaSi, es ki qaosis wyaro xdeba xolme.
– cnobilia, rom dasavleTis politikuri, finansuri da samxedro daxmareba ukrainisadmi Zalian mniSvnelovania saboloo gamarjvebisTvis, ukrainas `leopard 1~ tipis 80 tanki gadaecema da aseve, 150 kilometrze msroleli raketebi, es risi maniSnebelia?
– dasavleTs gadawyvetili aqvs, ukrainas wels strategiuli upiratesoba moapovebinos frontis xazze. rusuli armiis elituri danayofebi da yvelaze karg mdgomareobaSi myofi teqnika kievis, xarkovisa da mariupolisaTvis brZolaSi ganadgurda. es umniSvnelo ram ar aris. ruseTs kvlav didi resursebi aqvs darCenili, magram dasavluri SeiaraReba swored mowinaaRmdegis poziciebze Soridan dartymis saSualebas iZleva. Cven vixileT, rogor Secvala frontze arsebuli situacia `haimarsma~. SeiZleba iTqvas, rom raketebi, romelTa wvdomac 150 kilometrzea, mowinaaRmdegis fortifikaciebs daaqveiTebs, xolo dasavleTis miwodebuli tankebi mowinaaRmdegis frontis garRvevis SesaZleblobas Seqmnis. Tumca dasavlur SeiaraRebas, gansakuTrebiT ki Celenjer 2-s, abramssa da leopard 2-s aTvisebisaTvis dro sWirdeba. yvelaze karg SemTxvevaSi am yvelaferma ramdenime Tve SeiZleba waiRos.
– dasavleli analitikosebi acxadeben, rom aSS da koleqtiuri dasavleTi omis gaxangrZlivebas cdiloben, raTa ruseTi gamoifitos, anu ar arian dainteresebuli ukrainis swrafi gamarjvebiT, Tqveni azri rogoria amis Sesaxeb?
– dasavleTisaTvis amocana martivia – ruseTi ara mxolod brZolis velze unda damarcxdes, aramed politikuradac da es yvela avtokratiuli reJimisTvis iyos gakveTili, raTa aRaravis moundes agresiis wamowyeba. dasavluri SeiaraReba gamowvevidan gamomdinare daiwyo. Tavdapirvelad wamovida tanksawinaaRmdego SeiaraReba, radgan mTavar safrTxes javSanteqnika uqmnida ukrainas, Semdgom – xomaldaswinaaRmdego da haersawinaaRmdego SeiaraReba, ramac ukrainis ca da sanapiro SedarebiT usafrTxo gaxada. amas mohyva Sors msroleli maRali sizustis artileria, romelmac mowinaaRmdegis zurgi gamofita. aRniSnul process daerTo aRmosavleT evropaSi darCenili sabWoTa SeiaraRebis moZieba da gadacema dasavlur javSantransportiorebTan erTad, romelTac ukrainuli Seteva xarkovis mimarTulebiT SesaZlebeli gaxades. amJamad mimdinareobs strategiuli SeiaraReba, anu, martivad rom vTqvaT, dasavleTi moqmedebs im amocanidan gamomdinare, romelic axla ukrainis winaSe dgas. tempi rom ufro swrafi iyos, es, ra Tqma unda, misasalmebeli iqneboda.
– ukraineli da aseve dasavleli samxedro analitikosebi acxadeben, rom ar aris gamoricxuli, ruseTma Tebervlis miwuruls kvlav ganaaxlos ieriSi kievze, ramdenad mosalodnelia msgavsi ram?
– rusuli Seteva mosalodnelia, radgan am raodenobis cocxali Zalis mxolod dacvaSi dayeneba sxvadasxva resursis xarjvas daaCqarebda. aris ramdenime scenari – belarusidan Tavdasxma dasavleT ukrainaze an kievze, razec yvelaze xSirad saubroben. aRniSnuli potenciuri ieriSi suiciduri iqneboda, radgan wina wlis Tebervlisagan gansxvavebiT axla belarusTan mTeli sazRvari gamagrebuli aqvs ukrainas da 2022 wlis SesaZleblobebiT Tu ver SeZles rusebma dedaqalaqis aReba, an dasavleT ukrainaSi Sesvla, axla kidev ufro naklebia amis albaToba. Sesabamisad, Tuki politikuri gadawyvetileba ar miiRes kremlSi, naklebad savaraudoa, samxedroebma am misias dauWiron mxari. aris sxva variantebic, maT Sorisaa ramdenime sinqronuli ieriSis wamowyeba luganskis, doneckisa da zaporoJies raionebSi. es scenari ufro SesaZlebelia, magram ukrainelebi imdenad detalur informacias iReben rusuli jaris gadaadgilebis Sesaxeb dasavleTisagan, rom moulodnelobis efeqti SedarebiT dabali unda iyos.
– ruseTi rom araprognozirebadi qveyanaa, cnobilia. ramdenad realuria birTvuli omis safrTxe, Tundac taqtikuri iaraRis gamoyenebis TvalsazrisiT?
– birTvuli iaraRis safrTxe am etapze minimaluria. Tuki ukrainelebi yirimamde misvlas da naxevarkunZulis gaTavisuflebas daiwyeben, SesaZlebelia ruseTis mxridan birTvul iaraRze apelireba, an misi saCvenebeli gamoyeneba moxdes, magaliTad, dausaxlebel kunZulze Crdilo yinulovan okeaneSi, magram jer arasdros yofila imis precedenti, rom TavdasxmiT, agresiul omSi birTvuli SeiaraReba gamoeyenebinos vinmes. meore msoflio omSi aSS, didi britaneTi da maTi mokavSireebi TavdacviT oms awarmoebdnen iaponiisa da nacisturi germaniis winaaRmdeg. es ki TavdasxmiTi, dampyrobluri omia. Sesabamisad, misi gamoyenebis daSveba niSnavs, rom yvela birTvul saxelmwifos eZleva ufleba, Tuki mis moTxovnebs ar daakmayofileben, dapyrobiTi omi wamoiwyos da atomuri bombic gamoiyenos miznis misaRwevad. pandoras yuTiviT iqneba, Tu erTi precedenti Seiqmna, amis Semdeg yvela Sesabamisi resursis mqone saxelmwifo gaakeTebs. amitom naklebad savaraudoa, rom ase martivad gadawyviton birTvuli iaraRis gamoyeneba. yovel SemTxvevaSi omis am etapze mainc.
– ukrainis sruli gamarjvebisaTvis sami komponentia mniSvnelovanioa, acxadeben analitikosebi: okupirebuli teritoriebis deokupacia, rusi samxedro damnaSaveebis gasamarTleba da dasavleTis mkafio daxmareba, am mxriv yvelaze rTuli romeli komponentia?
– dasavluri SeiaraRebiT teritoriebis deokupacia ufro realisturia, vidre damnaSaveTa gasamarTleba. iugoslaviis yofili prezidentis slobodan miloSeviCis gasamarTleba haagaSi swored mas Semdeg gaxda SesaZlebeli, rac Tavad serbeTma gadasca igi, ruseTTan dakavSirebiT ki amis SesaZlebloba am etapze naklebia.
– cxadia, gverds ver avuvliT ruseTze dawesebul sanqciebs, aqvs ki mas is Sedegi, rasac dasavleTi eloda?
– ruseTis ekonomika 4%-iT Semcirda, rac aseTi didi qveynis ekonomikisaTvis Zalian didi cifria. amasTan, axalgazrdebisa da profesionalebis qveynidan gadineba (zogjer sanqciebis gamo da zogjer mobilizaciis SiSiT) Zalian didi tempebiT mimdinareobs. inteleqtualuri resursis daqveiTeba yvelaze didi problemaa saxelmwifosaTvis. sanqciebis meore nawili evropas exeba – evropa rusul gazze damokidebulebisagan Tavisufldeba da es udidesi miRwevaa. amasTan, rusuli navTobis fasi dabla daeca, rac mis Semosavlebs urtyams, magram sanqciebi ase ar muSaobs. misi efeqti nelia da ramdenime TveSi ar Cans.
– ukrainaSi daiTxoves Cinovnikebi, romlebic korufciaSi iyvnen eWvmitanilni, es ramdenad sazianoa ukrainis saboloo gamarjvebisTvis da xom ar aris mosalodneli dasavleTis daxmarebam ukrainis mimarT iklos?
– Tuki ukraina oms mougebs korufcias, misi gamarjvebis Sansebi bevrad maRali iqneba. ukrainas korufcia omamde rom daemarcxebina, SesaZloa omi ruseTs verc ki wamoewyo, radgan ukrainuli samxedro industria, iseve rogorc ekonomikuri potenciali, Zalian didi iyo, magram korufciam Tavisi umZimesi kvali daatyo qveyanas. Tuki ukraina daamarcxebs korufcias, misi poloneTis magvar saxelmwifod Camoyalibeba SesaZlebeli iqneba.
– rusuli propaganda rom mTeli msoflios Tavsatexia, araxalia am mxriv `socialur qselSi kampaniasaviT xvdeba postebi, Tu ratom ar aris saqarTvelo evropa~, rasac Tqven Zalian STambeWdavi pasuxi gaeciT, gviambeT amis Sesaxebac . . .
– rusuli propaganda im logikazea agebuli, rom saqarTvelo evropa ar aris da niko nikolaZis, ilia WavWavaZis, ivane maCablisa da dimitri yifianis ideebi da xedvebi TiTqos ar yofila evropuli. sityvebis – `evropa~da `dasavleTi~ marginalizacia mizanmimarTulad xdeba. saqarTvelo istoriulad, politikurad, samarTlebrivad da kulturulad evropaa da amis uaryofa usafuZvloa. Cveni samarTali germanuli stilisaa, Cveni ekonomika dasavleTzea mibmuli, Cveni politikuri sistema dasavluri stilisaa da dasavleTisaken miiswrafvis, Cveni istoria permanentulad aRwerda evropasTan megobrobas da aziidan mosuli safrTxeebisagan Tavdacvas, Cveni kultura ki danarCeni evropuli civilizaciis nawilia, Rvinis kulturiT ki saerTodac, akvani. rTulad Tu ipoviT qarTuli kulturis saerTos Sua aziasTan, romelic TiTqmis igive manZiliTaa Cvengan daSorebuli, ramdeniTac, magaliTad rumineTi. kavkasia aRmosavleT evropis ukidures aRmosavleTiT mdebare regionia da is iseTive mravalferovani da gansxvavebuli SeiZleba iyos, rogorc, magaliTad, balkaneTi, magram rogorc balkaneTia evropis nawili, isevea kavkasia.
– ruseTis damarcxebis Semdeg ramdenad mosalodnelia moskovma axali agresia ganaxorcielos saqarTveloze an moldovaze da amiT evaWros dasavleTs dividendebis misaRebad da am mxriv dasavleTis mxardaWera ramdenad mniSvnelovania Cveni usafrTxoebisTvis?
– Tuki ruseTi totalurad damarcxda, anu kidev didi xani gaagrZela omi da resursebis umravlesoba Cado masSi, maSin misi mxridan raime agresiis wamowyebis albaToba, nebismier adgilas minimaluri iqneba. magram Tuki ruseTi damarcxda ise, rom brZolisunariani darCa, maSin araa gamoricxuli, ukrainasTan marcxi igive belarusis aneqsiis mcdelobiT, an yazaxeTSi rusuli mosaxleobis gamoyenebiT raime samxedro aqtivobiT gagrZeldes. saqarTvelo rogorc evropis nawili ukrainasTan erTad moazrebulia ruseTis agresiis msxverplad. Sesabamisad, ruseTis marcxis SemTxvevaSi, saqarTveloSi xelaxali agresiis Sansi naklebi iqneba, magram aq saqarTvelos aqtiurobacaa mniSvnelovani – ruseTis marcxi saqarTvelom unda gamoiyenos, rom dasavleTs mosTxovos zewola ruseTze, raTa jarebi saqarTvelos okupirebuli regionebidanac gaayvaninos an dRis wesrigSi mainc Caasmevinos.
– dabolos, yvela, miT ufro aseTi farTomasStabiani, omis Semdeg yalibdeba axali msoflio wesrigi, am mxriv movlenebis ra ganviTarebas elodebiT?
– axla gzagamyofia – Tuki ruseTi damarcxdeba, tiranuli reJimebi agresiul omebs ase Tamamad veRar daiwyeben. magram Tuki ruseTma raime formiT miaRwia Tundac minimalur mizans, es signali iqneba agresiuli reJimebisaTvis, rom TavdasxmiTi omisaTvis mzadeba sulac araa uazroba . . . magram ruseTis marcxis SemTxvevaSi, kidev erTi realobis winaSe davdgebiT – CineTi yvela variantSi gaZlierebuli gamodis, radgan misi poziciebi rogorc Sua aziaSi, ise mTels aRmosavleT aziaSi ganmtkicdeba. Tuki axla centralur moTamaSeebad aSS, ruseTi da CineTi gvevlinebian TavianTi mokavSireebiTa da centrebiT, ruseTis marcxis SemTxvevaSi CineTis Zala kidev ufro gaizrdeba.