,,დღეს უკრაინაში ის რუსული იმპერიალიზმი მარცხდება, რომელიც საქართველომ არაერთხელ გამოსცადა”
äïøï õëèåîòêò 593 50 82 69 –
`ruseTis istoria, petre pirvelis Semdeg, erTi dausrulebeli sisxlis samarTlis saqmea~, – tiutCevis es citata aq mTavrdeba, magram ar mTavrdeba da dRemde grZeldeba sisxlis samarTlis saqme – usaSvelod gawelili sivrcesa da droSi. . .
ruseTi rom veragi, despoturi da araprognozirebadi qveyanaa, mTel msoflioSi da, miT umetes, postsabWoTa qveynebSi gaacnobieres. istoriul wiaRsvlebs ar daviwyeb, mokled vityvi: agresia saqarTvelos mimarT, okupacia Cveni regionebisa, aneqsirebuli yirimi da okupirebuli dnestrispireTi. . . am dromde, anu ruseT-ukrainis omamde dasavleTi, garkveulwilad, Tvals xuWavda kremlis destruqciul nabijebze, magram 2022 wlis 24 Tebervlis Semdeg msofliom gaacnobiera ruseTis realuri zraxvebi saerTaSoriso politikaSi. aSS-is da evrokavSiris mxardaWera rom ara, savaraudod, ruseTi sawadels miaRwevda. TiTqmis weliwadnaxevaria, mimdinareobs omi ukrainaSi. am qveyanam ara mxolod gauZlo ruseTis agresias, aramed iniciativac moipova da warmatebul kontrSetevas axorcielebs. ruseTSi amaswinandelma erTdRianma amboxma bevri kiTxva warmoSva ukrainis omis konteqstSi. am da sxva mniSvnelovan sakiTxebze gvesaubreba saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis specialisti, saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa institutis (jipa-s) profesori giorgi koberiZe.
– batono giorgi, ruseTSi arSemdgar ajanyebaze minda gkiTxoT: or kviraze meti gavida da, garkveulwilad, daskvnis gakeTeba SeiZleba – ra vixileT da ra SeiZleba vixiloT samomavlod?
– cxadad vixileT, rac umravlesobisaTvis isedac naTeli iyo – ruseTSi arsebobs uamravi klani, romelTa Soris dapirispireba ucxo ar aris. dapirispireba matulobs xolme, rodesac avtokratiuli reJimebi sustdeba anda brZolaSi ver aRwevs warmatebas. prigoJinis amboxi gamocxadebuli omis qronikasaviT iyo – winaswar aanonsebda ajanyebas, magram kremlSi egonaT, rom es an blefi iyo, an uSualod Soigu-gerasimovis klans daupirispirdeboda, magram ase ar aRmoCnda da swored es iyo Sokismomgvreli putinisTvis, romelic Secbunebuli da dabneuli mimarTavda xalxs.
– erTdRianma samxedro ajanyebam daamsxvria Tu ara ruseTis da, aseve putinis uZlevelobis da stabilurobis imiji?
– rogorc cxelma danam – karaqSi, ise gaiara `vagnerma~ TiTqmis 800 kilometri, aiRo 2 administraciuli centri da Camoagdo 7 safreni aparati. paradoqsia, magram ukrainisTvis yvelaze saSiSi rusuli Sveulmfrenebi gaxldaT da swored isini ganadgurda am amboxis periodSi. realurad, am yvelaferma gamoaCina, rac ucnobi ar yofila – ruseTis yvelaze brZolisunariani nawilebi axla ukrainaSia da ruseTis dasacavad `rosgvardia~ sakmarisi namdvilad ar aris. amitomac apirebs kremli amieridan meti aqcenti gaakeTos swored `rosgvardiaze~, romelmac reJimi yvelafris fasad unda gadaarCinos. bolo 500 dRea, vxedavT, rom ruseTi swored imis tyveobaSi aRmoCnda, raSic wlebis ganmavlobaSi amyofebda mezoblebsa da dasavleTs: ruseTis Zala aris ara mis supersaxelmwifoebriobaSi, aramed im rwmenisa da aRqmis gavrcelebaSi, rom TiTqos is marTlac supersaxelmwifoa. rodesac uZlevelobis miTs reJimi Tavad ijerebs, swored maSin eqmneba mas safrTxe.
– rogorc gacxadda, aSS-is dazvervam erTi dRiT adre icoda mosalodneli amboxis Sesaxeb. am mxriv dasavleTisTvis ra scenari iqneboda xelsayreli?
– aSS-sTvis yvelaze xelsayrelia, misma mtrebma Signidan gainadguron Tavi. swored am procesebs vadevnebdiT Tvals.
– Tu prigoJini ar gasamarTlda, ramdenad mosalodnelia ruseTSi axali amboxi?
– dausjelobis sindromi arcerT avtokratiul reJims ar aZlevs xels. reJimma Tavisi sisuste namdvilad gamoavlina, magram yvelaze saintereso swored amis Semdeg daiwyeba – es wmendaa. nebismieri dasustebuli avtokratia Zalauflebis aRdgenas samxedro da politikuri elitis wmendiT cdilobs xolme, magram Sida teroris wamowyeba omis dros rom cudi ideaa, yvelam icis. ubralod, putini, romelic, misi adreuli biografiidan gamomdinare, xSirad paranoidad xasiaTdeba, maRali albaTobiT, wmendis arCevans gaakeTebs, miT ufro, rom amis niSnebi ukve gaCnda.
– analitikosebi acxadeben, rom ruseTSi ZalauflebisTvis klanebs Soris brZola daiwyo, anu emzadebian postputinis periodisTvis. Tqven Tu xedavT ruseTSi axal liders, romelic Seegueba postsabWoTa qveynebis suverenul arCevans?
– putini marto ar marTavs. saerTod, arcerTi lideri, maT Soris diqtatori, ar marTavs marto. mas sakuTari klani hyavs, romelsac, Tavis mxriv, Sida klanebi hyavs. ruseTSi maT `silovikebs~ uwodeben. maT, oligarqiuli Zalauflebis garda, aqvT Zalaufleba uSiSroebaSi, policiasa da jarSi. xSir SemTxvevaSi avtokratiebs Tavad misive garemocva amxobs romelime axali lideris sasargeblod. jerjerobiT amis niSnebi ar gvaqvs ruseTSi, magram, Cveulebriv, aseTi ram winaswar iSviaTad xdeba cnobili. albaT unda davelodoT arCevnebs ruseTSi, romelic momdevno wlis martSi imarTeba. Tuki putinma sakuTari kandidatura kvlav wamoayena, SesaZloa vifiqroT – `silovikebs~ kvlav sjeraT misi.
– axla ukrainis omze visaubroT: sami kviraa, ukrainuli armia kontrSetevas axorcielebs. ra daskvna SeiZleba gakeTdes am mimarTebiT?
– ukrainelebma warmatebas miaRwies samxreTSi, doneckisa da zaporoJias sazRvarze kritikulad mniSvnelovan velika novosilkas mimarTulebiT, sadac, jamSi, rva dasaxlebis gaTavisufleba SeZles da kvlav maT aqvT iniciativa. uSualod zaporoJias olqSi ori dasaxleba gaaTavisufles. doneckis olqSi, baxmutis seqtorSi ki ukrainelebs yoveldRiuri winsvla aqvT qalaqis irgvliv. es SeiZleba bevri ar iyos, magram ori ramaa mTavari: tendencia pozitiuria da. . . ukrainelebi sakuTari samxedroebis sicocxles maqsimalurad ufrTxildebian. teqnikaSi danakargi aris, magram cocxal ZalaSi amis maCvenebeli naklebia. arc is unda daviviwyoT, rom amjerad ukrainuli Semtevi nawilebis mxolod 10%-ia CarTuli.
– rogor fiqrobT, ukraina sakmaris daxmarebas iRebs dasavleTisgan, okupirebuli teritoriebi rom daibrunos? am mxriv F
16-is gadacema ukrainisTvis ra stadiaSia?
– ara, ukrainas meti sWirdeba. ruseTis SesaCereblad ukrainelebma didi raodenobiT iaraRi miiRes, magram Setevas sxva koncefcia da SeiaraReba sWirdeba. dasavleTi akeTebs bevrs, magram ara imdens, rom swrafi gardatexa moxdes.
– vxedavT, rom ruseTi aSantaJebs dasavleTs birTvuli iaraRis gamoyenebiT, magaliTad, zelenskim aRniSna, rom ruseTi zaporoJias atomuri sadguris afeTqebas gegmavs. . .
– dasavleTSi fiqroben, rom swrafad damarcxebulma ruseTma SeiZleba ugunuri nabijebi gadadgas da windauxedavad an atomuri eleqtrosadguri aafeTqos, an sulac birTvul iaraRs mimarTos, magram rac dro gadis, dasavleTSic icvleba Sexedulebebi amasTan dakavSirebiT. gansakuTrebiT prigoJinis ambavma daafiqra da daaCqarebina moqmedeba, radgan gamoCnda, rom ruseTs imaze metad qaosuri da iracionaluri Zalebisagan Semdgari reJimi marTavs, vidre erTi SexedviT Canda. savaraudoa, rom Semodgomaze miiRebs ukraina F16-ebs.
– `dRes dasavleTic TviTgadarCenisTvis ibrZvis ukrainis teritoriaze~, – aRniSneT erT-erT interviuSi. . .
– dasavleTis mier Seqmnili saerTaSoriso wesrigi gulisxmobda, rom dapyrobiTi omebis epoqa dasrulebuli iyo. evropaSi mSvidoba swored am logikaze dafuZnda da TanamSromloba da urTierTgaziareba wavida win. Tuki ruseTma moaxerxa da dapyrobiT omSi warmatebas miaRwia an fsevdoimperiuli proeqti ganaxorciela (rac rigi qveynebis mxolod de iure damoukideblobas gulisxmobs, de faqtod ki damorCilebulebi iqnebian), maSin omebi da konfliqtebi axali ZaliT ifeTqebs msoflios mraval wertilSi, es yvelaferi ki, grZelvadianad, dasavleTsac Seuqmnis safrTxes.
– rogori iqneba saerTaSoriso wesrigi, Tu ukrainam omSi gaimarjva (vgulisxmob yvela okupirebuli teritoriis deokupacias) an es omi gaiyina?
– es Seqmnis realur Sanss Cveni msgavsi saxelmwifoebisTvis, romelTac araerTi problema da Tavis tkivili hqodnaT didi saxelmwifoebis zewolisa Tu agresiebis fonze. es dasavleTisTvisac gakveTili iqneba, rom agresiuli reJimebisaTvis dayvaveba ar SeiZleba da rom ruseTis SeCereba jer kidev 2008 wels SeiZleboda. amitomaa dRes mniSvnelovani ukrainis gamarjveba – sazRvrebis urRvevobis principi, upirvelesad, CvenTvis iqneba sasurveli.
– roca iqneba, es omic dasruldeba, magram misi ukrainisTvis sasurvelad damTavreba raze iqneba damokidebuli?
– omi sul ver gagrZeldeba. TavdacvaSi myof Zalas brZolis meti motivacia aqvs xolme, vidre agresiul Zalas, romelic, bunebrivia, Tavadac ifiteba. ukrainis gamarjvebisaTvis dRes dasavleTi kritikul rols asrulebs, magram yvelaze mniSvnelovani swored ukrainelTa nebaa, ibrZolon damoukideblobisTvis. ukraina didia, resursi bevri aqvs, warmoebis saSualebebi aqvs da dasavleTis daxmarebiT SeuZlia brZolis gagrZeleba. Tumca erT-erTi fundamenturi gamowveva, romelic kievis winaSe dgas, didi korufciaa, maT Soris samxedro struqturebSi. am mxriv ukrainas or frontze brZola uwevs.
– udavoa, rom yvela didi omis Semdeg xdeba axali saerTaSoriso wesrigis formireba, Cven rom dasavleTis qolgis qveS aRmovCndeT, xelisuflebam ra unda gaakeTos am mimarTebiT?
– dasavleTi imitomaa mimzidveli, rom dasavluri cxovrebis standarti, dasavluri usafrTxoeba da dasavluri politikuri struqtura gamarTuli da efeqturia. saqarTvelos xelisufleba, vinc ar unda warmoadgendes mas, unda cdilobdes, gaxdes dasavluri tipis. es ar niSnavs, rom SeiZleba Tavidanve germanulma modelma imuSaos, magram Cven gvaqvs magaliTebi postsocialistur evropaSi – baltiispira saxelmwifoebis, poloneTis, sloveniis. . . sadac evropulma reformebma Sedegebi gamoiRo da cxovrebis stilic evropuli gaxda. dRes araa sakmarisi, Tqva, dasavleTi kargiao da iqidan fuli miiRo. Tuki romelime organizaciis wevroba ginda, im wevrs emsgavsebi. oRond es cudi procesi ki ar aris, aramed am gzis gavlisas imave sargebels iReb, rac im qveynebSi ukve arsebobs. adamianebi imitom migrireben poloneTSi, rom polonuri politikuri da ekonomikuri garemo moswonT. Tuki aseT garemos aq Seqmni, aravin arsad wava. gulaxdilebi rom viyoT, saqarTvelo bevrad advilad SeiZleba formirdes evropuli tipis ekonomikad da politikur Zalad, vidre igive ukraina da moldova, romlebsac amisTvis saqarTveloze didi gza aqvT gasavleli.
– dabolos, gverds ver avuvliT arasasiamovno faqts – prezidentma zelenskim saqarTvelos elCs ukrainis teritoriis datoveba mosTxova. es ramdenad daazianebs qarTul-ukrainul urTierTobebs da am mxriv dasavleTs ra pozitiuri qmedebebis ganxorcieleba SeuZlia?
– namdvilad usiamovno, cudi da, Cemi azriT, garkveulwilad, naCqarevi nabijebi gadaidga, magram qarTul-ukrainuli urTierTobebi erT dReSi ar daZabula, umTavresi mizezi ki ritorika iyo. saqarTvelos xelisuflebis mxridan ukrainaSi omis dawyebamde Tu omis dawyebidan ritorika ukrainisadmi sakmaod kritikuli gaxldaT, is ki ara, ukraina, rogorc negatiuri magaliTi, ise iyo xolme warmodgenili saqarTvelos mTavrobis wevrebis mier. ase omSi myof mokavSire saxelmwifoze saubari saqarTvelosTvis aranairi sargeblis momtani araa. mokavSiris mxridan mxardaWeris nacvlad carieli kritika da lanZRva rom modis, es urTierTobebs ormagi siswrafiT afuWebs, vidre mtrebs Soris xdeba xolme (mtrebi erTmaneTs megobrobas ar hpirdebian). amasobaSi ruseTTan politikuri flirti kidev ufro cudad gamoiyureba. SeiZleba solidaruli ar iyo ukrainisadmi (arada, Cven yvelaze kargad viciT, ra aris rusuli agresia da am fonze rTulia, ar gqondes solidarobis gancda), magram pragmatuli iqneboda, ar daupirispirde Zalas, romelic Seni mtris mteria. dRes ukrainaSi is rusuli imperializmi marcxdeba, romelic saqarTvelom araerTxel gamoscada. vimedovneb, male saqarTvelos xelisufleba SeZlebs, gverdze gaswios Sida politikuri gemovneba da win saxelmwifos interesebi daayenos.
