,,ჩვენს ქვეყანაში დომინანტური პოზიცია მაინც დოლარს და ევროს ექნება”
ლაშა ხომერიკი 593 50 82 69 –
pandemiam, ruseTis mimarT dawesebulma ekonomikurma sanqciebma da ruseT-ukrainis omma msoflio arastabiluri gaxada, erTi mxriv, civilizebuli qveynebi, aSS-is da evrokavSiris saxiT, ukrainas yovelmxriv exmarebian saxelmwifoebriobis SenarCunebaSi, sapirispirod, oficialuri moskovi da misi mokavSireebi cdiloben garkveulwilad aSS-is gavlenis ganeitralebas sxvadasxva saSualebiT
magaliTad, kremli cdilobs, saerTaSoriso vaWrobaSi amerikuli dolari ar gamoiyenos. am mxriv gamoCndnen sxva aqtorebic, maT Soris sayuradReboa CineTi. masa da ruseTs Soris urTierTobaSi ukve gamoiyeneba Cinuri iuani. garda amisa, rogorc eqspertebi acxadeben, msoflioSi dedolarizaciis procesi dawyebulia, rac bevr kiTxvas warmoSobs. am da sxva sakiTxebze bsu-is profesors, ekonomikis eqspert murman cecxlaZes vesaubrebiT.
– rogori ekonomikuri procesebia mosalodneli axlo momavalSi, saerTaSoriso vaWrobaSi dedolarizaciis procesi ras gamoiwvevs da ratom atexes gangaSi amerikelma ekonomistebma?
– dedolarizaciis mosalodnel Sedegebze rom visaubroT, jer gavarkvioT, ram ganapiroba dolarizacia. romelime valutis saerTaSoriso aRiareba umTavresad am valutisadmi maRal ndobazea damokidebuli, romelic, upirvelesad, ganmtkicebuli unda iyos am valutis eminenti qveynis ekonomikiT, magram mxolod ekonomika ar aris sakmarisi, amisaTvis saWiroa maRali ndoba am qveynisadmi, rac, ekonomikuris garda, politikur da, zogadad, qveynis instituciur wyobazec aris damokidebuli. aSS wlebis ganmavlobaSi xasiaTdeba am TvisebebiT. amitom, swored dolari iqca erT-erT yvelaze sando valutad. roca calkeul qveynebs eqmnebodaT ekonomikuri problemebi, xSirad mimarTavdnen amerikul dolars transaqciebis, vaWrobisa Tu rezervebis Seqmnisas. dolarizaciis ganmtkicebas xeli mniSvnelovnad Seuwyo 1944 wlis breton-vudsis SeTanxmebam, romliTac, faqtobrivad, Camoyalibda msoflios axali ekonomikuri sistema. SeTanxmeba efuZneboda wamyvani ekonomikis mqone 44 qveynisTvis fiqsirebul gacvliT kurss aSS-is dolarTan mimarTebaSi. 1973 wels gacvliTi kursis krizisebis seriam am sistemis rRveva gamoiwvia. amiT dasrulda `breton-vudsis periodi~ da, SeiZleba iTqvas, aqedan daiwyo dedolarizaciis procesi. Tanamedrove etapze dedolarizaciis sakiTxi dRis wesrigSi kidev erTxel daayena ruseTis mier yirimis aneqsiam. ruseT-ukrainis omTan dakavSirebiT ruseTisadmi dawesebuli sanqciebi SeiZleba miviCnioT dedolarizaciis Seuqcevadi procesis dasawyisad. ukrainis omis dawyebidan erTi Tvis Tavze saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis mmarTveli direqtoris moadgile gita gopinaTma winaswar ganWvrita, rom dasavleTis dawesebulma sanqciebma `SeiZleba dolaris batonobas bolo mouRos~. zustad ase moxda, rodesac indoeTma ruseTTan dolariT dadebuli aradenominirebuli energetikuli garigebebiT dedolarizaciis procesi daaCqara. udavoa, rom mTavari faqtori, rac saxelmwifoebs amJamindel msoflio finansur sistemaze uaris Tqmas aiZulebs, aris SeerTebuli Statebis mTavrobis SesaZlebloba da mudam mzardi survili, rom dolari Tavisi politikuri mowinaaRmdegeebis mimarT iaraRad gamoiyenos. es finansuri sistema meore msoflio omis dasrulebis Semdeg amoqmedda, Tanamedrove etapze ki amerikis SeerTebuli Statebi am berkets kargavs.
– cnobili gaxda, rom brazilia, ruseTi, indoeTi, CineTi da samxreT afrika erTiani valutis gamoSvebas apireben…
– alternatiuli msoflio sabanko sistemis Camoyalibebis procesi, romelic moskovma 2014 wels, mas Semdeg daiwyo, roca koleqtiurma dasavleTma yirimis aneqsiis gamo ruseTis federacias sanqciebi dauwesa. 2015 wels, Seiqmna axali ganviTarebis banki, raTa moexdina 
-is qveynebsa da sxva ganviTarebad ekonomikebSi resursebis mobilizeba infrastruqturisa da mdgradi ganviTarebis proeqtebisTvis. es banki cnobilia rogorc `B-is banki~, radgan swored B-is qveynebi arian (brazilia, ruseTi, indoeTi, CineTi da samxreTi afrika) am bankis damfuZneblebi. dReisTvis B-is qveynebze modis globaluri mTliani samamulo produqtis 25 procenti. alternatiuli msoflio sabanko sistemis Camoyalibebis procesi 2022 wlis 24 Tebervlis Semdeg kidev ufro daCqarda da gafarTovda sxva qveynebis TanamonawileobiT, romlebic am sistemaze gadasasvlelad konkretul nabijebs dgamen. arabTa gaerTianebuli saamiroebi, urugvai, bangladeSi da egvipte iyo axali wevrebis pirveli jgufi. amJamad awarmoeben molaparakebebs saudis arabeTTan misi organizaciaSi wevrad daSvebaze. NDB ganviTarebis banki afasebs saudis arabeTis SesaZleblobebs Tanxebis mozidvaSi im fonze, rodesac ukrainaSi dawyebuli omis Semdeg gaCnda SeSfoTeba bankis ruseTze damokidebulebasTan dakavSirebiT – igi, rogorc damfuZnebeli wevri, bankis aqciebis daaxloebiT 19%-s flobs. F Taimis-is informaciiT, NDB ganviTarebis banki iZulebuli gaxda, SeeCerebina Tavisi $1,7 miliardi rusuli investicia, anu misi mTliani aqtivebis daaxloebiT 6,7% da Seewyvita axali rusuli proeqtebis dafinanseba, raTa daerwmunebina investorebi, rom is moskovis winaaRmdeg dasavleTis sanqciebs axorcielebs. NDBganviTarebis bankSi ruseTis gavlenebi sustdeba, miuxedavad amisa, is mainc rCeba am bankisa da misi damfuZnebeli organizaciis erT-erT gavlenian wevrad, ase rom, erTiani valutis Camoyalibeba garkveul winaaRmdegobebs awydeba, rac mravalspeqtriania da araa advilad dasaZlevi, miT umetes, iseT rTul viTarebaSi, rogorSic Tanamedrove msoflioa.
– Tqveni prognoziT, msoflioSi globaluri ekonomikuri wesrigis transformacia ra SedegiT damTavrdeba?
– miuxedavad imisa, rom dedolarizaciis procesi axal fazaSi Sevida, dolari mainc inarCunebs wamyvan pozicias. bolo monacemebiT, globaluri vaWrobis 88 procenti dolariT xorcieldeba, saerTaSoriso tranzaqciebis 75% dolarze modis, safinanso institutebisa da komerciuli bankebis rezervebis 60% dolarebSia denomirebuli. msoflios masStabiT gacemuli valdebulebebisa da obligaciebis 59% dolarze modis. es mdgomareoba imiT aris ganpirobebuli, rom iamaikis SeTanxmebis mixedviT, romelic breton-vudsis SeTanxmebebis gagrZeleba iyo, erovnuli valutis moculoba mkacradaa damokidebuli rezervebze, kerZod, dolarze. vfiqrobT, is momavalSic erT-erTi wamyvani globaluri sarezervo valuta iqneba, Tumca misi poziciebi ar iqneba iseTi Zlieri, rogoric adre iyo. migvaCnia, rom ufro mravalpolaruli savaluto sistema Camoyalibdeba, anu, dolaris garda, globaluri sarezervo valutis rolSi sxva valutebic gamova. ismis kiTxva – romeli? vfiqrobT, im qveynebis valuta, romelTa ekonomikac wamyvan poziciebzea msoflioSi, Tumca TiToeul maTgans garkveuli naklovanebebi aqvs, risganac Tavisufalia dolari.
– dedolarizacia da sxva siaxleebi (axali valutis damkvidreba) saqarTveloze rogor imoqmedebs?
– Cveni swrafva evrokavSirisaken uryevia. mniSvnelovania isic, rom amerikis SeerTebuli Statebi Cvens strategiul mokavSired iTvleba, amitom, miuxedavad imisa, rom gvaqvs maRali savaWro brunva B-is zogierT qveyanasTan, CvenTan dominanturi pozicia mainc dolars da evros eqneba.
– mosalodnelia, rom arCevanis winaSe davdgeT da. . . ra unda avirCioT?
– ekonomikaSi mTavari is ki araa, romeli valuta mogvesurveba saerTaSoriso transaqciebSi, aramed romeli savaluto zonis qveynebTan gveqneba dominanturi savaWro urTierToba. dRes CvenTvis umTavres valutad mainc darCeba dolari da evro, magram gaizrdeba vaWroba iuansa da rublSi, SesaZloa, indur rupiaSic. gveqneba vaWroba agreTve Turqul liraSi da sxva mezobeli qveynebisa Tu partniorebis valutaSic, ase rom, saqarTveloze dedolarizacia garkveul zegavlenas moaxdens, moxdeba dolariT vaWrobis garkveuli doziT Canacvleba iuaniT da rubliT, magram radikalur cvlilebebs ar velodebiT.
– CineTi, indoeTi, ruseTi – ramdenad SesaZlebelia am qveynebTan savaWro-ekonomikuri urTierTobebis dros maTma valutam globaluri mniSvneloba SeiZinos?
– amis miRwevis mcdeloba namdvilad SeiniSneba am etapze. magaliTad, saerTaSoriso vaWrobaSi Cinuri iuani dReisaTvis mesame adgilzea amerikuli dolarisa da evros Semdeg, Tumca masze modis globaluri vaWrobis mxolod 3% da safinanso institutebisa da komerciuli bankebis rezervebis mxolod 2,5%-ia denomirebuli iuanSi. misi mTavari nakli is gaxlavT, rom komunisturi qveynis valutaa, rac mniSvnelovnad amcirebs misdami ndobas, magram, rogorc cnobilia, CineTs miznad aqvs dasaxuli, 2049 wels iqces msoflios nomer pirvel qveynad da es arcTu usafuZvlo ambiciaa. Tu es ase iqneba, Cinuri iuanis globaluri rolic mniSvnelovnad gaizrdeba. CineTis ekonomika dRiTi dRe Zlierdeba. dRes msoflios 500 umsxvilesi kompaniis 129 saTavo ofisi CineTSia. mas aqvs msoflioSi udidesi savaluto rezervebi, xolo ganxorcielebuli investiciebiTa da sagareo vaWrobiT erT-erTi mowinave qveyanaa msoflioSi. CineTi aris msoflio savaWro organizaciis wevri da warmatebiT aformebs vaWrobis xelSekrulebebs sxva qveynebTan. igi cnobilia Sanxaisa da SenJenis safondo birJebiT, romlebic erT-erTi udidesi birJebia TavianTi kapitalizaciiTa da vaWrobis moculobiT. SenJenis ekonomikurma ganviTarebam ganapiroba, rom qalaqi moixsenieba rogorc msoflios momdevno silikonis veli. yovelive es mniSvnelovnad uwyobs xels iuenis gaZlierebas. amJamad, CineTi, romelic SeerTebuli Statebis mTavari ekonomikuri konkurentia da brazilia, romelic samxreT amerikaSi udidesi ekonomikis qveyanaa, ormxriv vaWrobas erovnul valutebSi awarmoeben. pekinma msgavsi savaluto garigebebi ruseTTan, TurqeTTan, pakistansa da sxva ramdenime qveyanasTanac dado. 2022 wlis TebervalSi, Sanxais TanamSromlobis organizaciis blokSi, romelSic gaerTianebuli arian CineTi, ruseTi, indoeTi, pakistani, uzbekeTi, yazaxeTi, tajikeTi da yirgizeTi, SeTanxmdnen, rom urTierTvaWrobisas ufro met upiratesobas erovnul valutebs mianiWeben. indoeTi, romelic aseve SeerTebuli Statebis mokavSired iTvleba, CineTis msgavsad, sakuTari rupiis internacionalizaciisTvis Zalisxmevas aZlierebs, riTac xels uwyobs dedolarizaciis tendenciis Semdgom ganviTarebas. indoeTi ruseTTan, mavrikisTan, iransa da Sri-lankasTan ukve rupiiT vaWrobs. am garigebebiT indoeTi antiamerikuli poziciisken ar ixreba. es yvelaferi am qveynis obieqturi erovnuli interesebiT aris ganpirobebuli. vaSingtonis mier dawesebuli sanqciebis gamo, delis sxva arCevani ar hqonda garda imisa, rom TandaTanobiT moeZebna sxva gzebi moskovTan energetikuli garigebebis dasadebad, ris Sedegadac, indoeTis ekonomika CineTis ekonomikaze orjer ufro swrafad gaizarda, ramac am qveynis mravalpolaruli sistemis avangardSi gadasvlas Seuwyo xeli. amgvarad, indoeTma Tavisi obieqturi erovnuli interesebis dacviT, istoriis kursi Secvala. indoeTis wamyvani roli dedolarizaciaSi, rac ruseTTan dadebuli dolariT aradenominirebuli energetikuli garigebebis mzardi raodenobiT gamoixateba, globalur finansur sistemasac cvlis, radgan dolaris mravalwliani batonoba sustdeba. amas, Tavis mxriv, ufro mravalpolaruli mdgomareobisken mivyavarT. rogorc Cans, Tavad SeerTebulma Statebmac ki aRiara, rom ar SeuZlia am tendenciis Secvla. arcTu ise didi xnis win, indoeTSi vizitisas, SeerTebuli Statebis finansTa ministrma faqtobrivad ganacxada, rom `indoeTs SeuZlia imdeni iafi rusuli navTobi SeiZinos, ramdenic surs. . .~.ruseTis xelisufleba jer kidev sanqciebis dawesebamde amzadebda ruseTis ekonomikis dolarisgan Tavis daRwevis gegmas. ekonomikur mecnierebaTa doqtori mixail deliagini maSin aRniSnavda, rom es iqneboda iZulebiTi procesi. dolaris angariSsworebis SemcirebiT ruseTis federacia naklebad daucveli gaxdeboda savaluto sanqciebis SemoRebis SemTxvevaSi. es procesebi ruseT-ukrainis omma mkveTrad daaCqara. 2022 wlis dasawyisidan rubli-iuaniT vaWrobis moculoba rvajer gaizarda, ase rom, izrdeba ara mxolod Cinuri, aramed induri da rusuli valutebis wilic msoflio vaWrobaSi da ar aris gamoricxuli, maT meoTxe-mexuTe pozicia daikavon dolaris, evrosa da iuanis Semdeg.
– evros ra elis?
– bolo periodSi evro seriozuli gamowvevebis winaSe aRmoCnda. ruseT-ukrainis omis gamo ruseTisadmi dawesebulma sanqciebma mniSvnelovani ziani miayena evrokavSiris energoresursebiT uzrunvelyofas. regionSi pesimisturi ekonomikuri prognozebis gamo, evro dolarTan mimarTebiT gaufasurda. amis miuxedavad, erTiani evropuli valutis wili msoflio angariSsworebaSi TiTqmis 34 procents udris, rac mxolod xuT procentze naklebia dolarze. is jerjerobiT, nomer meore globalur valutad iTvleba. iuanis gaZlierebiT SeiZleba Sesustdes misi poziciebic, magram is mainc darCeba globaluri valutis sameulSi.
– axla Cveni qveynis ekonomikur mdgomareobazec visaubroT: eqsporti ufro swrafad izrdeba, vidre importi – es ra gavlenas axdens Cvens ekonomikaze?
– zogadad, eqsportisa da importis sxvaobis aRsaniSnavad ekonomistebi viyenebT wminda eqsportis cnebas. roca wminda eqsporti izrdeba, anu eqsporti aWarbebs imports, es qveynis ekonomikisaTvis dadebiT tendenciad aRiqmeba, anu qveyana ufro met produqcias awvdis danarCen msoflios, vidre misgan iRebs. roca piriqiTaa, sxvaoba ifareba an investiciebis SemodinebiT, anu qveynis sxvadasxva aqtivebis gayidviT an sesxis aRebiT, ase rom, importis mzardi zrda eqsportTan SedarebiT, dadebiT tendenciad ver CaiTvleba da amaze dafiqreba da zrunva namdvilad saWiroa. daubalansebeli vaWroba gavlenas axdens agreTve biujetis deficitze, saxelmwifo valze da sxva, amitom aucilebelia, swrafad vipovoT globalur ekonomikaSi Cveni niSa im dargebis ganviTarebiT, romlebSic SedarebiTi upiratesoba gvaqvs. samwuxarod, dReisTvis, ZiriTadad, nedleuli gadis qveynidan, rac Zarcvis tolfasad migvaCnia.
– lari gamyarda, magram fasebze es didad ar aisaxa, inflacia igrZnoba…
– mimdinare etapze inflacia importirebulia da es ar aris damokidebuli mxolod Sida faqtorebze. isRa dagvrCenia, miviRoT es faqtad da vizrunoT imaze, rogor SevarbiloT misi zegavlena rogorc qveynis ekonomikaze, ise mosaxleobis socialur mdgomareobaze. erovnuli savaluto kursis gamyareba `importirebul~ inflacias arbilebs, magram mis daZlevas ver uzrunvelyofs. inflaciis mosaTokad Cvens qveyanaSi swori politika gatarda, roca erovnulma bankma airCia mkacri monetaruli politika da maRal doneze SeinarCuna refinansirebis ganakveTi. magram aseTi politikis gatarebasac aqvs zRvari, radgan igi uaryofiTad aisaxeba qveynis ekonomikur zrdaze. amitom rogorc ki Semcirdeba inflaciuri wnexi globaluri ekonomikisagan, erovnulma bankmac unda Searbilos monetaruli wnexi, rasac, faqtobrivad, atarebs kidevac. am mimarTulebiT swored aseTi frTxili, mozomili da dabalansebuli politikis gatarebaa saWiro.
– eqspertTa mosazrebiT, ekonomikuri zrdisTvis sulac ar aris kargi laris gamyareba, asea?
– rogorc zemoT aRvniSne, wminda eqsportis Semcireba, anu importis mzardi zrda eqsportTan SedarebiT amcirebs mTlian samamulo produqciis moculobas. wminda eqsporti mTliani samamulo produqtis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani komponentia, gansakuTrebiT iseTi mcire ekonomikis qveynisTvis, rogoric saqarTveloa. wminda eqsporti ki pirdapir kavSirSia savaluto kursTan. roca erovnuli valuta myardeba, es imas niSnavs, rom qveynis SigniT warmoebuli produqciis fasebis ucvlelobisas, sagareo bazarze dolarebSi an sxva qveynis valutaSi gamoxatuli misi fasi izrdeba. sxvanairad rom vTqva, roca erovnuli valuta myardeba, es aZvirebs qveynis SigniT warmoebuli produqciis Rirebulebas globalur bazarze, rac amcirebs Cvens produqciaze moTxovnas, ase rom, Tu gvinda wminda eqsportis zrda da, maSasadame, mTliani samamulo produqciis zrda, amaSi erovnuli valutis gamyareba namdvilad uaryofiT rols Seasrulebs. gamosavals SemdegSi vxedavT: bolo periodis gamocdileba gviCvenebs, rom msoflio bazrebze fasebis zrda swrafad aisaxeba Cvens qveyanaSi importirebul saqonelze maSin, rodesac fasebis Semcireba naklebad an srulebiT ar aisaxeba. amitom vfiqrobT, mizanSewonili iqneba, Tu msoflio bazrebze inflaciuri procesebis Serbilebis paralelurad, erovnuli banki iseT politikas gaatarebs, rom inflaciuri wnexis Semcireba msoflio bazrebze aisaxos laris savaluto kurszec da moxdes misi gonivrul sazRvrebSi Semcireba. es xels Seuwyobs wminda eqsportis zrdas.
– cifrul fulze gadasvla da TandarTuli procesebis regulireba rogor moxdeba?
– cifrul fulze gadasvlas gegmavs msoflios TiTqmis yvela qveyana. es ar aris mxolod Cveni arCevani. Znelia imis Tqma, rodidan iqneba cifrul valutaze sruli gadasvla aucilebeli, magram aucilebeli rom gaxdeba, es aSkaraa… Tumca, vfiqrob, garkveuli doziTa da vadiT SenarCundeba tradiciuli fulic. saqarTvelos erovnuli banki ukve meore welia, cifruli laris proeqtis danergvaze muSaobs. misi sapilote reJimSi gaSveba wels igegmeba. aRsaniSnavia, rom saqarTvelos erovnuli banki iyenebs Ria maregulirebel CarCos, romelic finteq inovatorebs sazedamxedvelo CarCos ganviTarebaSi monawileobis saSualebas aZlevs. cifruli fuli xels Seuwyobs rogorc finansebze xelmisawvdomobis gaumjobesebas, aseve mdgrad ekonomikur ganviTarebas da inkluziur zrdas.
– dabolos, ras urCevT kerZo moqalaqeebs am periodSi, rogor moeqcnen TavianT ucxour Tu erovnul fuls da ramdenadaa daculi anabrebi gacifrebis SemTxvevaSi?
– yoveli siaxle, miT ufro teqnologiuri, cxovrebis gamartivebas emsaxureba, amasTan, es garkveuli gamowvevebisa da riskebis winaSec gvayenebs. centraluri bankis cifruli valuta ufro metia, vidre gadaxdis kidev erTi saSualeba. cifruli lari unda iyos komfortuli, Tanamedrove teqnologiebze morgebuli gadaxdis saSualeba. jerjerobiT, cifruli fulis gamocdileba srulyofilad TiTqmis arcerT qveyanas ar aqvs, is axla inergeba da konkretul Sedegebze saubari jer naadrevia. Tumca radgan cifruli fulis danergvis iniciativas erovnuli banki iRebs sakuTar Tavze, is amiT garkveul valdebulebasac kisrulobs mosaxleobis winaSe da vfiqrob, fulTan da anabrebTan mimarTebaSi mosaxleobas aranairi seriozuli safrTxeebi ar Seeqmneba.
