აზერბაიჯანის ტერიტორიული მთლიანობის აღდგენის შემდეგ შესაძლებელია თუ არა სამხრეთკავკასიური კავშირის შექმნა?
laSa xomeriki 593 50 82 69 –
samxreT kavkasiaSi procesebi sainteresod viTardeba – azerbaijanma teritoriuli mTlianoba aRidgina, yarabaRis mesame omis Sedegad separatistuli mTavroba daTanxmda oficialuri baqos ultimatums iaraRis dayris Taobaze. aRsaniSnavia isic, rom somxeTi ar Caeria yarabaRis mesame omSi mravali faqtoridan gamomdinare. ruseTma neitraluri pozicia daikava, dasavleTma, ase vTqvaT, mwvane Suqi aunTo azerbaijans teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgenis TvalsazrisiT. aqedan gamomdinare Cndeba kiTxvebi: ra faqtorebma ganapiroba azerbaijanis gamarjveba omSi? yarabaxis precedenti ra perspeqtivebs usaxavs saqarTvelos da moldovas? ramdenad mosalodnelia samxreTkavkasiuri erTobis Seqmna? am da sxva aqtualur sakiTxebze saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis specialisti, saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa institutis – `jipas~ profesori giorgi koberiZe gvesaubreba.
– saqarTvelos samezobloSi mniSvnelovani procesi ganviTarda, – azerbaijanma aRidgina teritoOOOriuli mTlianoba, es ra faqtorebma ganapiroba?
– es faqtorTa kombinaciam ganapiroba – ruseTi dasustebulia da gadarTulia ukrainaze; azerbaijanis samxedro Zalebi sakmaod gaZlierebuli da gadaiaraRebulia, raSic baqos TurqeTi da israeli daexmara; amasTan, somxeTis premieri nikol faSiniani ruseTisTvis maincdamainc sasurvel figurad araa miCneuli. am garemoebebis kombinaciam baqos moqmedebas xeli Seuwyo.
– eqspertebi acxadeben, rom yarabaRis sakiTxi, praqtikulad, yarabaRis meore omSi gadawyda. maSin somxeTi CaerTo omSi, axla ki neitraluri pozicia daikava,. ra gaxda amis mizezi?
– faqtia, rom somxeTi meore omSi damarcxda da 4 aTasi samxedro dakarga, rac misTvis didi danakargia. amasTan, maSin azerbaijanma teqnologiurad ajoba somxeTs da axlac bevrad winaa. faSiniani mixvda, rom am omSi Cabmas didi marcxi SeiZleboda mohyoloda. arc politikurad iqneboda swori nabiji. faSinianma aRiara azerbaijanis teritoriuli mTlianoba, xolo yarabaRTan somxeTs pirdapiri kavSiri ar aqvs. Sesabamisad, raime Careva aucileblad gamoiwvevda azerbaijan-somxeTis oms da Tan ise, rom amaSi somxeTs daadanaSaulebdnen. es icoda faSinianma da Tavi Seikava mxolod pragmatizmidan gamomdinare.
– udavoa, rom samxreT kavkasiaSi TurqeTs, irans, dasavleTs da ruseTs TavianTi miznebi aqvT, am mxriv upiratesoba vis mxaresaa da raSi gamoixateba es?
– azerbaijanis gamarjveba TurqeTis gamarjvebaa. TurqeTis wona azerbaijanis wonasTan erTad kidev ufro gaizrdeba. dasavleTis egidiT warmoebulma molaparakebebma da mowodebebma yarabaRTan mimarTebiT Sedegi ar gamoiRo. es, principSi Zalian rTulic iqneboda, radgan energoresursebiT mdidari azerbaijanis winaaRmdeg gamosvlis survili aravis aqvs, isedac gamwvavebuli krizisebis fonze.
– yarabaRis omSi kidev erTxel gamoCnda ruseTis arasaimedooba, es mocemuloba gaacnobieres somxeTSi?
– rogorc Cans – diax. ruseTisadmi undobloba ara mxolod faSinianis xelisuflebas, aramed misi opoziciis did nawilsac Riad aqvs dafiqsirdebuli. mxolod qoCarianis jgufs aqvs kvlav prorusuli politika. zogadad, e.w. yarabaRis klani yovelTvis prorusuli politikiT gamoirCeoda – magram ruseTismagvar avtokrat mokavSireze fsonis dadeba sariskoa, radgan avtokratebi RirebulebebiT ar xelmZRvaneloben da ufro advilad wiraven mokavSireebs.
– rogorc amboben, kremlis mTavari mizani faSinianis xelisuflebis Seclaa, procesebis rogor ganviTarebas elodebiT da dasavleTs risi gakeTeba SeuZlia somxeTis prodasavluri xelisuflebis SesanarCuneblad?
– ruseTis mizania regionSi darCena da samxreT kavkasiis Tavis ukana ezod qceva. faSiniani misTvis arasasurvelia imdenad, ramdenadac is somxeTisaTvis axal mokavSreebs, ruseTis alternativebsac eZebs. amasTan, kremlSi ar uyvarT revoluciis gziT mosuli liderebi, faSiniani ki swored aseTi lideria, magram somxeTSi martivi aRar iqneba prorusuli Zalis mosvla. ruseTis politikuri reputacia Zalian dazianda, faSiniani ki kidev ufro metad amZafrebs antirusul ganwyobebs, raTa demonstrantebis misken mimarTuli agresia ruseTze gadaitanos.
– mas Semdeg, rac yarabaRis probleba azerbaijanis sasargeblod mogvarda, ramdenad SesaZlebelia samxreTkavkasiuri erTobis Seqmna?
– am etapze, naadrevia amaze saubari, magram damaimedebelia is faqti, rom somxeTsac da azerbaijansac oficialurad aqvT erTmaneTis teritoriuli mTlianoba aRiarebuli. Tuki maT Soris sasazRvro konfliqtic daregulirda (romelic 2021 wlidan mimdinareobs), es axal Sansebs dabadebs. zogadad, urTierTTanamSromloba regionis samive qveynisaTvis sasargeblo iqneba da evropisTvisac metad saintereso da stabilur wertilad gadaiqcea.
– yarabaRis precedenti ra perspeqtivebs usaxavs saqarTvelos da moldovas teritoriuli mTlianobis aRsadgenad?
– Zalian saintereso kiTxvaa: Cven gvaqvs pirveli SemTxveva, rodesac postsabWoTa sivrceSi teritoriuli mTlianoba qveyanam aRidgina Zalisa da zewolis gamoyenebiT. amis eSiniaT separatistebs sxva qveynebSi. zogadad, gakveTili unda iyos yvela separatistisTvis: SeiZleba gavides aTwleulebi, magram qveyana uars ar ityvis Tavis teritoriaze. mniSvnelovania, rom separatistebs esmodeT erTi martivi ram – warmatebuli separatizmi arsebobs manam, sanam maT zurgs Zlieri mxardamWerebi umagreben. Tumca Zlieri saxelmwifos mxardaWera arafers niSnavs, radgan drosa da sivrceSi Zalian male icvleba siZlieris cneba. amitom molaparakebebi yvelaze racionaluri nabiji iqneboda. yarabaRs 2020 wlamde rom waremarTa molaparakebebi azerbaijanTan, imgvar avtonomias miiRebda, romelic SeiZleba aravis hqondes msoflioSi, magram axla mas aseTi molaparakebebisaTvis berketi aRar aqvs.
– somxeTSi antirusuli ganwyobebi matulobs, ramdenad mosalodnelia erevanma ruseTis samxedroebis gayvana moiTxovos qveynidan da am mxriv ras unda velodoT kremlisgan?
– gamoricxuli araferia. principSi, axla ruseTisagan distancireba yvelaze optimaluri nabiji iqneboda. meore mxriv, ruseTi xom ar Seecdeba samxedro gadatrialebas an raime personalurs faSinianis winaaRmdeg aseT SemTxvevaSi? swored amitom, axla didi sifrTxile da mokavSireebis aqtiuri Zieba marTebT erevanSi.
– axla Cvens qveyanaze visaubroT, wlis miwuruls evrokomisiam saqarTvelosTan mimarTebiT gadawyvetileba unda miiRos, ra molodini gaqvT?
– vimedovneb, rom saqarTvelo miiRebs kandidatis statuss da ara imitom, rom saqarTvelos xelisuflebam yvela piroba Seasrula, aramed imitom, rom es qarTul sazogadoebas waaxalisebda, SemdgomSic aqtiurad daicvas saxelmwifo interesebi. statusis miRebis SemTxvevaSi, es ukve iqneba miniSneba, rom evropis srulfasovan nawilad aRviqmebiT da Cvenganac iseTive seriozul nabijebs moiTxoven, rogorsac sxva evropuli saxelmwifoebisgan. martivad rom vTqvaT, kandidatis statusi politikurad sxva ligaSi gadasvlas gulisxmobs, rac axali SesaZleblobebi iqneba CvenTvis.
– kandidatis statusis moniWeba-armoniWeba ra perspeqtivas da gamowvevebs usaxavs qveyanas?
– Tuki evrokavSiri mogvaniWebs kandidatis statuss, amas prodasavlurad ganwyobili mosaxleoba aRiqvams Tavis monapovrad da rigiT moqalaqes meti motivacia eqneba Tavisi Rirebulebebis dasacavad. magram Tuki statusi ver miviReT, es iqneba sruli kartblanSi prorusuli da avtokratiuli ZalebisaTvis, romlebic antidasavlur ritorikasa da dRis wesrigs SemogvTavazeben da daurTaven propagandas – `dasavleTs mainc ar vundivarT~. evrokavSiris uarma mosaxleobaSi sibraze, imedgacrueba da nihilizmi SeiZleba waaxalisos, rac winaaRmdegobis unars daaqveiTebs. es SeiZleba moxdes ara imitom, rom dasavluri Rirebulebebis dakargva ar Seawuxebs moqalaqes da ar gabrazdeba, aramed imitom, rom nihilizmi Seipyrobs. politikuri nihilizmi gansakuTrebuli movlena ar aris da axasiaTebT gardamaval, anu Cvennair hibridul reJimebs, romelSic politikuri sazogadoeba jer kidev ar aris myari. nihilizmi erT-erTi sayvareli iaraRia arademokratiuli reJimebis xelSi. samoqalaqo sazogadoebis politikuri mobilizacia kargi mwvrTneliviTaa, romelic sul tonusSi gamyofebs. nihilizmi cud mwvrTnels hgavs, romelic geubneba, mainc araferi gamova arc Sengan da arc Cemi wvalebidan da rac ginda, is akeTeo. nihilizmi demokratiasac ki ryvnis, rom araferi vTqvaT hibriduli reJimis avtokratizaciisTvis xelSewyobaze. 7-9 martis dReebma mosaxleobas imedi gauCina, rom brZolas hqonda azri, evrokavSirisagan uari ki, garkveulwilad, aRqmuli iqneba (da Semdgom, permanentuli propagandis meSveobiT gamoiyeneben prorusuli Zalebi) rogorc uari ara mxolod xelisuflebis, aramed xalxis misamarTiTac. cxadia, racionalurad SeiZleba yvelasaTvis gasagebi iyos, rom es uari xalxs ar uTxres, magram politikur ganwyobebs mxolod racionalizmi arasdros qmnis. yvelafers rom Tavi davaneboT, obieqturadac, kandidatis statusi, pirvel rigSi, politikuri nabijia da igi rogorc ukrainisa da moldovis prodemokratiuli Zalebis mxardaWerisa da mobilizaciisaTvis gadaidga, iseve unda gadaidgas saqarTvelosaTvisac. miT ufro, rom politikuri kulturisa da polarizaciis TvalsazrisiT saqarTvelo moldovaze winaa, xolo korufciasa da organizebul danaSaulTan brZola ukrainam sul axlaxan daiwyo. orive saxelmwifom bevri iswavla Cvengan. . . da es maSin, rodesac saqarTvelos evrokavSiris arcerTi regioni ar esazRvreba (moldovisa da ukrainisagan gansxvavebiT) da Cveni yvela mezobeli ama Tu im formiT omSia Cabmuli sxvadasxva teritoriaze. cxadia, Tavs ar vityueb – amJamad Cvens qveyanaSi prodasavluri da demokratiuli procesebi Seferxebulia da Zalian mZime sayurebelia, rodesac qveyana bevr sakiTxSi bewvis xidze gadis, magram axla evrokavSiris mxridan kandidatis statusis moniWeba swored politikurad axali imedis dabadebas Seuwyobs xels.
