ამ ქვეყნების არჩევნების შედეგები მსოფლიოს მომავალს განსაზღვრავს
laSa xomeriki 593 50 82 69 –
2024 weli msofliosTvis, maT Soris saqarTvelosTvis, mravalmxriv mniSvnelovani movlenebiT iqneba gamorCeuli. gacxaddeba ara mxolod saprezidento (aSS, ruseTi) da saparlamento (saqarTvelo) arCevnebis Sedegebi, aramed iseTi Zireuli sakiTxebi, rogoricaa ruseT-ukrainis omis, CineT-aSS-is garTulebuli urTierTobebis ganviTareba taivanis sakiTxTan mimarTebiT da natos aRmosavleT gafarToeba. 2024 wels SegviZlia saarCevno welic vuwodoT, radgan msoflios 60-ze met qveyanaSi arCevnebia daniSnuli. Secvlili geopolitikis fonze es axal realobas warmoSobs- ase fiqroben analitikosebi.
saqarTvelo – saparlamento arCevnebis molodinSi
saparlamento arCevnebis muxti dRiTi dRe matulobs da es arcaa gasakviri, yvela partia gamarjvebisTvis iRvwis, parlamentis, mTavrobis ,,jadosnuri~ savarZelebis dasakuTebisTvis. yvelas surs gamarjveba da, bunebrivia, ismis kiTxvebi: ra SedegebiT dasruldeba arCevnebi, ras Secvlis ivaniSvili politikaSi dabruneba da romeli partiebi gadalaxaven saarCevno bariers? am kiTxvas bolo dros eqspertebi xSirad svamen da am mxriv gansxvavebul mosazrebas aviTareben. udavoa, rom es arCevnebi mravali faqtoridan gamomdinare, marTlac, mniSvnelovani iqneba. jer erTi, arCevnebi srulad proporciuli sistemiT Catardeba da meore -gacxaddeba, ramdenad demokratiuli qveyana varT, anu rogor Seafaseben arCevnebs saerTaSoriso damkvirveblebi. es mniSvnelovania, dasavleTs ar unda Seeparos eWvi Cvens demokratiulobaSi. maTi mxridan isedac gaismis garkveuli pretenziebi sxvadasxva sakiTxTan mimarTebiT, amitom saparlamento arCevnebi sanimuSod unda Catardes, saerTaSoriso damkvirveblebs, miT umetes opozicias sapretenzio araferi unda hqondeT. es exeba, rogorc saarCevno garemos, ise Semdgom periods. qarTuli politikis mTavar aqtorebs (,, qarTuli ocneba~ ,,nacmoZraoba~) Soris grZeldeba dapirispireba, polarizacia, miznis misaRwevad erTmaneTs ar indoben. ZiriTadad, mmarTveli partia ,, nacmoZraobas~ 9-wlian sisxlian mmarTvelobas axsenebs, yofili saxelisuflo Zala ki ,,qarTuli ocnebis~ uunarobaze saubrobs, xolo ,,leiboristuli partia~ zemoaRniSnul partiebs aliansSi sdebs brals da imasac aRniSnavs, rom isini opoziciuri speqtris ganadgurebas cdiloben. urTierTbraldebebiT arc danarCeni partiebi gansxvavdebian erTmaneTisgan, rac imas niSnavs, rom saqarTvelo ver Camoyalibda evropuli donis saxelmwifod, es Cveni qveynis ganviTarebas Zalze aferxebs. jerjerobiT arCevnebis prognozireba rTulia, radgan manamde TiTqmis aTi Tve,a magram garkveuli daskvnis gakeTeba SeiZleba. Tu sociologiur gamokiTxvebs (partiebis reitingTan dakavSirebiT) vendobiT, saarCevno bariers mmarTveli partiis garda galaxavs oTxi partia – ,,nacmoZraoba~, `saqarTvelosTvis~ ,,lelo saqarTvelosTvis~ da ,,girCi~ – `droas~ tandemi. am opoziciuri partiebis procentuli maCvenebeli, saerTo jamSi, 45 procents aRwevs, mmarTveli partiis reitingi – 35, sxva partiebi saarCevno bariers ver laxaven, rac, eqspertTa TqmiT, koaliciuri mTavrobis Seqmnis albaTobas ar gamoricxavs, Tumca SesaZloa, suraTi sapirispiro iyos da mmarTvelma gundma damajerebeli gamarjveba moipovos, radgan mmarTvelma partiam SeZlo qveyanaSi omis Tavidan acileba, ekonomikuri mdgomareobis gaumjobeseba, rac mniSvnelovania. es yvelaferi mainc partiebis qmedebebze, strategiaze iqneba damokidebuli. jerjerobiT opozicia aradamajerebelia (`nacmoZraobaSi~ Seqmnili viTareba amas cxadyofs), arc mmarTveli gundis mdgomareobaa idealuri, rac, garkveulwilad, aRiara ivaniSvilma, romelic daubrunda qarTul politikas. amis mizezi, misi TqmiT, is aris, rom unda izrunos mmarTveli partia ar gaexvios korufciaSi da misi wevrebis Warbma Zalauflebam ar daazianos qveyana, opozicia ki acxadebs, ivaniSvili imitom daubrunda politikas, rom sanqciebi Tavidan aicilos. ase Tu ise, erTi ram cxadia, biZina ivaniSvilis `qarTuli ocnebis~ sapatio Tavmjdomared arCeva mniSvnelovan dividendebs miscems mmarTvel gunds da mis reitings sakmaod aamaRlebs. es udavoa. yovel SemTxvevaSi, ase Tvlian eqspertebi. viciT, rom 2018 wlis saprezidento arCevnebis meore turze, swored misma aqtiurobam ganapiroba salome zurabiSvilis gamarjveba, arCevnebTan dakavSirebiT sayuradRebo mosazrebas aviTarebs politologi gela iremaZe: ,, xelisuflebam, pirvel rigSi da aseve opoziciam, unda gaarkvion, ra legitimaciis xarisxs floben mocemuli momentisTvis moqalaqeebis mxridan, aseve, maT unda Seiswavlon, ra ganapirobebs moqalaqeebis mier xelisuflebis kritikas, an negatiur damoukideblobas, rac mTavaria, gasageb enaze dawerili programebi unda SesTavazon mosaxleobas da ara populisturi dapirebebi~. cxadze ucxadesia, rom 2024 wlis arCevnebi iqneba qveynisTvis gzagasayari, radgan Tu arCevnebi evropuli standartebis gaTvaliswinebiT Caivlis, es mniSvnelovnad daaaxloebs Cvens qveyanas dasavleTTan.
miuxedavad garkveuli problemebisa, saqarTvelo regionSi demokratiuli imijiT sargeblobs, rasac ganmtkiceba sWirdeba. demokratiis saukeTeso magaliTi iqneba Tanabar, konkurentian garemoSi saTanadod Catarebuli arCevnebi da konsensusi opoziciasTan qveynisTvis mniSvnelovan sakiTxebze.
ruseTi – mesame msoflio omis moderatori
`ruseTi mesame msoflio omis moderatoric gaxdeba, oRondac ki pasuxi ar agos kremlis amJamindel Tu winamorbed binadarTa danaSaulebebze~-aRniSnavda saqarTveloze uzomod Seyvarebuli afxazi publicisti aleqsei Taria. marTlac, es qveyana 21-e saukuneSic agrZelebs sakacobrio danaSaulebs sxvadasxva qveynis mimarT, saqarTvelo, moldova da amJamad ukraina amis TvalsaCino magaliTebia. TiTqmis mesame welia, vuyurebT damangrevel oms, sisxlis Rvras, sikvdils ukrainaSi, rusi jariskacebi, ufro sworad Tanamedrove nacistebi, xocaven udanaSaulo qalebs, bavSvebs, dRe ar gava, umZimesi tragediis Sesaxeb ar gavigoT -, ganadgurebuli saxlebi, iavarqmnili soflebi da qalaqebi, aTiaTasobiT daxocili, asiaTasobiT daWrili, milionobiT ltolvili da es xdeba 21-e saukuneSi mTeli msoflios Tvalwin da amaSi garkveuli pasuxismgebloba dasavleTsac ekisreba. man 2000-ian wlebSi putinis ruseTi ekonomikurad gaaZliera, kremls aravin sayvedurobda qveyanaSi demokratiis SezRudvas, sanqciebi mxolod yirimis aneqsiis Semdeg dauweses, isic mosaCveneblad. dasavleTs mxolod 2022 wlis 24 Tebervals aexila Tvali. am uunarobas, gaubedaobas ewireba axla ukraina, misi xalxi, romelic, faqtobrivad, icavs dasavlur karibWes rusuli samxedro urdoebisgan. amas, axla kargad acnobiereben dasavleTSi da SeZlebisdagvarad exmarebian ukrainas ruseTTan omSi, magram mxolod daxmarebebiT, mowodebebiT fsons ver gava, ufro qmediTi nabijebia saWiro, raTa ruseTma ver gaagrZelos srulmasStabiani omi,risi umTavresi mamoZravebeli Zala putinia. Mman Tavi axal stalinad warmoidgina. surs sabWoTa imperia Seqmnas, rac ar gamosdis, ufro hitlers emsgavseba, rogorc Cans, surs xelaxla gaxdes prezidentebis. ambobs, rom dasavleTTan samamulo omSia. jerjerobiT rus ers ajerebs am propagandas, Sedegic saxezea. rogorc cnobilia, martSi ruseTSi saprezidento arCevnebi gaimarTeba. rogorc mosalodneli iyo, putini kenWs iyris da, savaraudod, airCeven kidec, gasaocaria rusi xalxis pozicia, radgan putinis ambiciebs Seewira asiaTasobiT adamianis, maT Soris rusebis sicocxle. qveyana dasanqcirebulia, yvela civilizebuli saxelmwifo Tavs aridebs ruseTTan urTierTobas, CineTi ki sargeblobs am saxelmwifos mdgomareobiT da mis resursebs iafad iTvisebs, Tumca rus xalxs es didad ar adardebs. davimowmeb isev afxaz publicist aleqsei Tarias: `vladimir putini nebismieri WeSmariti rusi patriotisTvis miuRebeli unda iyos ara imdenad ruseTis istoriaSi gamovlenili uvicobis gamo, aramed imisTvis, rom misi marTvis periodSi ruseTSi mTlianad gaCerda demokratiuli institutebisa da samarTliani samoqalaqo sazogadoebis Senebis axlad fexadgmuli procesi, risTvisac am qveyanas, adre Tu gvian, aucileblad moekiTxeba~. sjobs adre moekiTxos, radgan putini daemuqra dasavleTs, rom omi ukrainaSi kidev 5 weli gagrZeldeba da ruseTis gamarjvebiT dasruldeba. ramden xans gastans omi, es Zneli Zneli saTqmelia, Tumca is ki cxadia, rom Tu dasavleTi realur daxmarebas gauwevs ukrainas da amave dros momakvdinebel sanqciebs dauwesebs ruseTs, maSin ruseT-ukrianis omi am ukanasknelis gamarjvebiT dasruldeba, es dasavleTma saTanadod unda gaaanalizos da am mimarTulebiT Tanmimdevruli nabijebi gadadgas.
amerikis SeerTebuli Statebi – wlis arCevnebi
udavoa, rom wlis umniSvnelovanesi movlenaa amerikaSi gasamarTi saprezidento arCevnebi. rogor aisaxeba es globalur politikaze? es kiTxva axla aqtualuria, vinaidan am arCevnebis Sedegebi garkveul gavlenas moaxdens mTel msoflioze, maT Soris ukrainasa da saqarTvelozec. prezidentobis savaraudo kandidatebs (baideni, trampi) Soris mkafio gansxvavebaa, umetesad sagareo politikis kuTxiT, rac dasavleTis SeSfoTebas da ruseTis eiforias iwvevs. Tu saprezidento arCevnebSi trampi da baideni daupirispirdebian erTmaneTs, bunebrivia, am arCevnebis mniSvneloba gaizrdeba, radgan trampis gamarjvebis SemTxvevaSi msoflio politika SesaZloa Zirfesvianad amoyiravdes. rogorc cnobilia, trampi diTirambebs ar iSurebs putinis misamarTiT, ambobs, rom 24 saaTSi daasrulebs oms, magram ar akonkretebs, rogor moaxerxebs amas,. putini ar apirebs omis Sewyvetas, piriqiT, imuqreba mTeli ukrainis dapyrobiT, amave dros, dasavleli liderebisgan iTxovs msoflios axal gadanawilebas, rasac ewinaaRmdegeba rogorc ukraina, ise evropa da koleqtiuri dasavleTi. sxvaTa Soris, arc baidens aqvs satrabaxo am mimarTebiT. mas sayveduroben, rom ar cdilobs ukrainis damajerebl gamarjvebas am omSi, anu misi mizania – arc ukrainam moigos damajereblad da arc ruseTi damarcxdes sagrZnoblad, sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, aSS-is mizania, omi gaxangrZlivdes ramdenime wliT mainc, es, garkveulwilad, ruseTis wisqvilze asxams wyals, radgan am qveyanas aqvs resursi saomrad, anu milionobiT adamiani SeuZlia Seswiros oms, pasuxs aravin mosTxovs, omSi moskovelebi da peterburgelebi ar mihyavs, buntma rom ar ifeTqos, ZiriTadad, iRupebian ararusi jariskacebi (CuvaSebi, Crdilokavkasielebi, TaTarstanis mosaxleoba. . .), ukrainas ki am mxriv resursi SezRuduli aqvs, iRupebian yvelaze gamorCeuli da naTeli pirovnebebi. . . ruseTis safrTxeze miuTiTebs evrokavSiris maRalCinosani jozef boreli: ,,ruseTi verasdros gadaiqca erad. is yovelTvis imperia iyo jer mefis, Semdeg sabWoTa mmarTvelobisas da axla, putinis pirobebSic. es ruseTis mudmivi mdgomareoba da misi politikuri identobaa. Sedegad ki, ruseTi warmoadgens safrTxes mezoblebisTvis da gansakuTrebiT CvenTvis~. swored am safrTxes umklavdeba ukraina, axla rusi jariskaci rom ar dgas poloneTis sazRvarTan (ukrainis mxridan) da aSS-is armias ar uwevs brZola aRmosavleT evropis suverenitetisTvis, swored ukrainis damsaxurebaa, rac amerikis politikurma elitam unda gaaanalizos. amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saprezidento arCevnebamde TiTqmis aTi Tve darCa, da cxadia, Sedegebis gaTvla eqspertebs SeuZleblad miaCniaT. savaraudod, brZola daZabuli iqneba da Sedegebi imaze iqneba damokidebuli, romeli sakiTxia amomrCevlisTvis gadamwyveti. sxvadasxva sociologiuri kvlevis mixedviT, trampi baidens 4 procentiT uswrebs, jerjerobiT Znelia imis Tqma, aSS-is saprezidento arCevnebSi vin gaimarjvebs, Tumca is ki cxadia, rom amerikis arCeul prezidents umniSvnelovanesi sakiTxebis (ruseT-ukrainis omi, CineTis ambiciebis moTokva, mokavSireebis dacva) mogvareba mouwevs. ramdenad warmatebulad gadawyvets aSS am epoqalur sakiTxebs, es metwilad, ukrainis da maT Soris saqarTvelos, momavalsac gansazRvravs.

