საქართველო – ახალ გეოპოლიტიკურ ვითარებაში
laSa xomeriki 593 50 82 69 –
msoflioSi mimdinare politikuri da ekonomikuri procesebis fonze saqarTvelo axali gamowvevebis winaSea. mis momavalze aisaxeba kavkasiaSi axali geopolitikuri viTareba, CineTis gaaqtiureba, TurqeTis da iranis poziciebi. saqarTvelos gavliT energეtikuli `mwvane derefnis~ Seqmnis gancxadeba araerT kiTxvas aCens. . . qveynisTvis aqtualur sakiTxebze Tavis Tvalsazriss gviziarebs ekonomikis doqtori paata arოSiZe
– kavkasiaSi axali geopolitikuri viTareba (CineTma ruseTi CaaCoCa) ra gavlenas moaxdens, rogor aisaxeba saqarTvelos momavalze? am mxriv, safrTxeebzec saubroben eqspertebi. . .
– CineTis gaaqtiureba kavkasiis regionSi da uSualod SavizRvispireTSi araxalia. jer kidev 2015 wlisTvis CineTma saqveynod ganacxada Tavisi axali geopolitikuri midgoma `erTi sartyeli – erTi gza~, Semdeg Secvala saxeli da amJamad CineTis geopolitikur mimarTulebebs hqvia `sartyeli da gza~. `sartyeli da gzis~ farglebSi, CineTma mTeli msoflios masStabiT, miznad daisaxa sxvadasxva ekonomikuri derefnis Seqmna CrdiloeTis, samxreTis, aRmosavleTis da dasavleTis mimarTulebiT da am mimarTulebebSi, uSualod ekonomikur derefnebs Soris, saqarTvelo ar moiazreboda, Tumca moniSnuli iyo anakliis porti da es imas niSnavda, rom maSinac did mniSvnelobas aniWebda CineTi Savi zRvis da saqarTvelos mimarTulebas. `sartyeli da gzis~ bolomde realizacias Tavdapirvelad pandemiam, Semdeg ki garkveulma finansurma krizisma SeuSala xeli. dRes es geopolitikuri mimarTulebebi rom ar aris amuSavebuli, swored pandemiidan gamomdinareobs. rac Seexeba uSualod SavizRvispireTSi ruseTis CaCoCebas, CineTi Tavis sasikeTo saqmeebs siCumiT marTavs da, garkveulwilad, ruseTis eqspansiasac ki eweva. ruseTSi, uralis gadaRma aris teritoriebi, sadac mxolod Cinuri dasaxlebebia. CineTi amas akeTebs Cumad, SeumCnevlad. sxvaTa Soris, saqarTvelos mimarTulebiT gaaqtiureba ar aris SemTxveviTi, radgan CineTs evrokavSirTan pirdapiri, Tavisufali vaWrobis reJimi ar gaaCnia, saqarTvelos – ki. amitomac CineTi Seecdeba, saqarTvelo, garkveulwilad, placdarmad gamoiyenos da aqedan gaitanos Tavisi produqcia evropaSi, anakliis portis mimarT Riad gamoxatuli interesi amis dadasturebaa. iyo saubari imis Sesaxeb, rom foTis Tavisufal industriul zonaSi Cinuri avtomwarmoeblebi Semovidodnen da ase gaitandnen produqcias CineTSi, magram es pandemiamde iyo. rac Seexeba saqarTvelos momavals, wminda ekonomikuri TvalsazrisiT, saqarTvelom SeiZleba es dividendebi gamoiyenos. anakliis portTan mimarTebaSi Ria tenderi Catarda. aq arc dasavlurma da arc amerikulma kompaniebma interesi ar gamoavlines da Semovida Cinuri kompania… ver vityvi, rom aSS-s da evrokavSirs awyobT saqarTvelos dakargva, ra Tqma unda, ara! saqarTvelo odiTganve iyo dasavleTis da aRmosavleTis gzajvaredini. axlac aqtualuria es sakiTxi – vinc flobs saqarTvelos, is flobs kavkasias da, SeiZleba iTqvas, mTel evrazias. amitomac ver vityviT, aSS-ma da evrokavSirma ratom ar iaqtiures am mimarTulebiT. safrTxeebs rac Seexeba, Cven CineTTan isedac gvaqvs Tavisufali vaWrobis xelSekruleba gaformebuli, safrTxe imisa, rom aq Cinelebi masobrivad Semovlen, gazviadebulia. ver vityviT, rom Cinelebis didi Semoseva igrZnoba saqarTveloSi. Cineli mosaxleobisTvis ar aris saqarTvelo mniSvnelovani da mimzidveli qveyana. ara mgonia, anakliis portis aSenebam maTTvis saqarTvelos mimzidveloba gazardos.
– amas winaT, CineTma Tavi Seikava gaeroSi saqarTvelos sakiTxze, roca ganixileboda devnilebis dabruneba afxazeTsa da cxinvalis regionSi. . .
– yvela qveyanas gaeroSi Tavisi politikuri miznebi amoZravebs. wlebis ganmavlobaSi Cveni mezobeli qveynebi Tavs ikavebdnen zemoaRniSnul sakiTxSi monawileobisgan. es maTi pragmatuli politikaa. erT raRacas daakvirdiT: garedan ar Cans sagareo saqmeTa saministros aqtiuroba, magram realoba sxvanairia. magaliTad, am 12 wlis ganmavlobaSi saqarTvelos droebiT okupirebuli teritoriebi araTu cno sxva qveynebma, aramed erTma ukan waiRo misi cnoba. amitom, vfiqrob, rom sagareo saqmeTa saministro asrulebs Tavis movaleobas. ar afiSirebs imitom, rom amiT ufro meti sargebloba moaqvs qveynisTvis, vidre Tavisi saqmeebis gapiarebiT, davarqvaT amas taleiranis politika, anu saqmis Cumad gakeTeba. faqtia, rom am 12 wlis ganmavlobaSi okupirebuli teritoriebi aravin aRiara. ar wydeboda mcocavi okupacia, magram es ar aris iseTi didi masStabis, rom gavlena moexdina Cveni qveynis sazianod. am mimarTebiT mTavrobis moRvaweobis erT-erTi mTavari kriteriumi swored is unda iyos, ramdenad aqtiurobs is teritoriuli mTlianobis aRsadgenad. CineTs xma rom mieca ltolvilebis dabrunebisTvis, es cxadia, udidesi gamarjveba iqneboda, magram diplomatiaSi ase, xSirad, ar xdeba.
– am axal geopolitikur viTarebaSi rogoria TurqeTis da iranis poziciebi, rogor aRiqvamen isini CineTis gaaqtiurebas?
– kavkasia, Savi zRva yovelTvis iyo TurqeTis interesebis sfero, rac Seexeba irans, misTvis kaspiis mimarTulebaa aqtualuri, rogorc navTobsabadoebis teritoriisa. irani ufro azerbaijanis mimarTulebiT aqtiurobs, xolo TurqeTi -saqarTvelos mimarTulebiT, radgan igi, rogorc ruseTi, Sav zRvas Tavisad miiCnevs, magram realoba axla aseTi ar aris, gavlena ki orive qveyanas surs. aq ar unda dagvaviwydes bulgareTi da rumineTi, romlebic evrokavSiris wevri saxelmwifoebi arian. Sav zRvaze Tavisi interesebi evrokavSirsac aqvs, amitom Savi zRva Zalian didi geopolitikuri dapirispirebis asparezadaa qceuli. Cveni mTavari safiqralia, ramdenad gamoviyenebT am geopolitikur Zvrebs, siaxleebs, rogor aRvidgenT teritoriul mTlianobas? Tu saqarTvelo CineTis daxmarebiT SeZlebs, ruseTs ukan daaxevinos afxazeTTan da cxinvalis regionTan mimarTebiT Tundac minimaluri daTmobis saxiT, CavTvaloT, rom saqarTvelom axal geopolitikur realobaSi gaimarjva. rac Seexeba TurqeTs da irans, isini gulxeldakrefilni ar iqnebian – TavianT politikas gaatareben am mimarTulebiT.
– ramdenad mosalodnelia, rom saqarTvelo gaxdes ekonomikuri habi, ra aris misi mTavari plusi?
– aviRoT navTobsadenebi, milsadenebi, 90-iani wlebis bolos, rodesac milsadenebi gakeTda saqarTveloSi, anu saukunis proeqtebi (`baqo-Tbilisi-jeihani~, `baqo-Tbilisi-sufsa~), iyo mcdeloba, rom saqarTvelo energetikuli habi gamxdariyo, dRes ki saqarTvelo ukve SeiZleba CavTvaloT mcire moculobis energetikul habad da es im dros, rodesac ruseTi sanqcirebulia da evrokavSirsac sWirdeba alternatiuli energomomarageba. Cveni qveyana did rols asrulebs am mimarTulebiT. rac Seexeba ekonomikur habs, zemoT vaxseneT CineTsa da evrokavSirs Soris savaWro urTierToba, rac SesaZloa, saqarTvelos gavliT moxdes, anu Tavisufali industriuli zonebi, romlebic naklebad gaaqtiurebulia (igive foTis Tavisufali industriuli zona), sadac iyo Cinuri avtoeleqtromobilebis qarxnis aSenebis mcdeloba, magram jer pandemiam, mere ki omma (ruseT-ukrainis) Seaferxa, gaaqtiurdes. ekonomika da politika erTmaneTTan gadajaWvulia. mokled, rogori politikac gatardeba, iseTive ekonomikuri Sedegebi eqneba.
– saqarTvelos gavliT energetikuli `mwvane derefnis~ Seqmnaze ras fiqrobT?
– Sua derefnis amoqmedebas daemateba rkinigza. . . Tavidan `mwvane derefans~ skeptikurad Sexvda bevri, svamdnen kiTxvebs – Seivseboda Tu ara navTobsadeni navTobiT, gazsadeni – gaziT, yarsis rkinigza – tvirTebiT da a. S. dRes Sav zRvasTan siaxlove gvaZlevs garkveul upiratesobas, ZiriTadi tvirTebi msoflio masStabiT (90 procenti) transportirdeba zRviT imitom, rom ufro ekonomiuria, ufro tevadia, danakargebi minimaluria. `mwvane derefnis~ amoqmedeba datvirTavs anakliis navsadgurs. aris saubari imazec, rom foTis navsadgurs mieniWeba kidev ufro didi mniSvneloba. am mxriv, sayuradReboa Tundac rikoTis uReltexilis gzis gakeTeba da aseve, sarfSi – wiTeli xidis avtobanis gakeTeba, es ar aris erTi da ori wlis proeqti, rikoTis avtobanis mSenebloba grZeldeboda aTi weli da miuxedavad imisa, rom bevri mowinaaRmdege hyavda, igi amoqmedda. ZiriTadad, igi gankuTvnilia tvirTebis gadazidvisTvis. mTavari tvirTgadazidvisTvis aris drois ekonomia, rac sxvadasxva mimarTulebiT ekonomiasac ganapirobebs da yvelaferi aisaxeba saboloo efeqtianobaze. ra plusebia es? magaliTad, Cvens qveyanaSi met-naklebad SenarCunebulia mSvidoba, ganviTareba.
– ucxouri investiciebis mxriv ra suraTia?
– bolo statistikuri informaciiT, ucxouri investiciebi Semcirda saqarTveloSi. amis mizezi iyo ryevebi qveyanaSi. mxedvelobaSi maqvs igive `ucxouri gavlenis gamWvirvalobis Sesaxeb~ kanonis miReba, demonstraciebi. saerTod, investori Zalian frTxilia. ar arsebobs yvelasTvis mosawoni kanoni. pirdapir iarliyis mikvra, rom zemoaRniSnuli kanoni rusulia, aramarTebulia. sruli pasuxismgebelobiT vacxadeb, 99 procents ar aqvs es kanoni wakiTxuli. igive kanoni miiRo safrangeTma, kanadam. xval rom Seicvalos xelisufleba, am kanons mainc aravin gaauqmebs, radgan es drois moTxovnaa. yvelaze kargad erovnuli saxelmwifos mniSvneloba pandemiam dagvanaxa, rom globalizaciis raRac etapi dasrulda, anu dRes globalizaciaze aRar aris saubari. yvela saxelmwifo Tavis TviTmyofadobas ufrTxildeba – pandemiis dros evrokavSiris wevrma qveynebma erTmaneTs Cauketes sazRvrebi, rom sakuTari mosaxleoba daecvaT. safrTxis dros saxelmwifoebi Tavis Tavze fiqroben. sulac ar aris gasakviri, rom saqarTvelom Tavis Tavze izrunos, miT umetes, rom axla varT geopolitikuri areulobis okeaneSi, msoflio dRes naRmzea da aravin icis, ra Sedegi eqneba amas.
– kavkasiis regionSi liderobisTvis azerbaijani ibrZvis, raa mosalodneli?
– sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg azerbaijanma xelSi aiRo baqos navTobi da gaxda `Savi oqros~ erT-erTi mTavari eqsportiori, man amerikuli da evropuli korporaciebi daainteresa. magaliTad, kavkasiis regionSi operirebda `britiS petroliumi~, magram SemdgomSi ukve kompania `sokarma~ aiRo xelT es navTobi. dRes `sokari~ (misi saTavo ofisi baqoSia) aris mniSvnelovani kompania da aqedan gamomdinare, azerbaijans aqvs regionSi liderobis pretenzia, magram kavkasiis centri mainc Tbilisi iqneba, es ganpirobebulia, upirvelesad, geografiuli mdebareobiT, aseve, evropasTan siaxloviT, igive mentalitetidan gamomdinare da a. S.
– vaSingtonma saqarTvelos ramdenime aTeul moqalaqes savizo reJimi dauwesa, es risi maniSnebelia?
– savizo reJimi isedac arsebobs amerikasTan. . . realurad vis mimarT aris dawesebuli sanqcia, jerjerobiT, ar aris gacxadebuli, arCevnebamde mxolod amgvari gancxadebebiT Semoifarglebian.
– mosalodnelia Tu ara, saqarTvelos mosaxleobas SeuCerdes uvizo mimosvla evrokavSiris qveynebTan?
– uvizo mimosvlis SeCereba ar aris martivi, am mxriv yvela qveynis pozicia unda iyos erTiani, amas axlavs Tavisi procedurebi… vfiqrob, evrokavSirisTvis ar aris misaRebi saqarTvelos mosaxleobisTvis uvizo mimosvlis SeCereba.
– amasobaSi arCevnebi saqarTveloSic moaxlovda. ra SeiZleba iTqvas im politikur Zalebze, romlebic jer ar aqtiuroben?
– rogorc cnobilia, arCevnebi oqtombris bolos gaimarTeba. zafxuli yovelTvis politikurad mdore periodia, amas emateba evropis Cempionati, mere olimpiada. . . saerTod, rTulia, darCenil droSi axali politikuri Zala gamovlindes, radgan politikuri Zala rom damkvidrdes, Tavisi TviTmyofadoba warmoaCinos, akrifos reitingi, sul cota, erTi weli mainc sWirdeba. gamowvevaa eleqtronuli arCevnebi, saqarTveloSi aseTi arCevnebi ar Catarebula. darwmunebuli var, rom gamoCndeba Zala, romelic amasac uaryofiTad Seafasebs. ityvian, arCevnebi gayalbdao. unda daidos realuri dokumenti, ar ideba es realuri dokumentebi.
– rogoria saqarTvelos prezidentis `qartia~ Tqveni poziciidan?
– prezidentma, garkveulwilad, Tavisi Tavi warmoaCina. misi reitingi Zalian dabalia. pirveli mizezi is aris, rom misi Zalaufleba Semcirebulia, meore – prezidentis individualuri qceva. ver vityvi, rom salome zurabiSvili diplomatiurad gamoucdelia, is sakmaod maRali donis diplomatia, magram misi qmedebebi kiTxvebs badebs. ra amoZravebs mas? surs Tavisi politikuri centris Camoyalibeba, romlis lideri gaxdeba, anu ibrZvis Tavisi meore vadisTvis da amitom misi aqtiuroba bunebrivia, magram amisTvis ra gza airCia, es ukve sul sxva sakiTxia.
– dabolos, aris Tu ara oqtombris arCevnebi da misi Sedegebi istoriuli mniSvnelobis?
– ra Tqma unda, 2024 wlis arCevnebi mniSvnelovania geopolitikuri situaciidan da aseve ruseT-ukrainis omidan gamomdinare. garda amisa, moqmedi xelisufleba emzadeba meoTxed mosasvlelad xelisuflebaSi, rac did interess sZens am arCevnebs, erTi mxriv, aris diskreditebuli politikuri Zala (`nacmoZraoba~), romelic cdilobs arCevnebSi gamarjvebas da meore mxriv – mmarTveli partia, romelic meoTxed emzadeba gasamarjveblad. diax, Zalian mniSvnelovania oqtombris arCevnebi, ar iqneba ioli – saqarTvelosTvis es iqneba, SeiZleba iTqvas, gadamwyveti da istoriuli arCevnebi.

