„…კონფლიქტის შემთხვევაში, მესამე ძალის დახმარების ილუზია, უბრალოდ, სიგიჟეა“
irma cecxlaZe 577 20 45 63 –
msoflioSi arsebul tragikul qaoss ise SeveCvieT, rom veRarc vamCnevT, ra gavlena aqvs araTu qveynebis, TiToeulis yofa-cxovrebaze. bevri Cvengani ukve aRarc interesdeba mimdinare omebiT, teraqtebiT Tu saeWvo politikuri gaerTianebebis CamoyalibebiT da gulubryvilod Tvlis, rom erT mSvenier dRes yvelaferi TavisiT dalagdeba. principSi, arc es aris gamoricxuli, vinaidan yvelafers aqvs dasawyisi da dasasruli, ubralod, ra raodenobis msxverpli iqneba saWiro planetaze mSvidobis aRsadgenad, warmosadgenadac rTulia.
gTavazobT intervius politolog soso manjaviZesTan, romelic saubrobs mimdinare SeiaraRebul konfliqtebsa da saqarTvelos rolze msoflio gadanawilebis procesSi.
– batono soso, gTxovT, mokled mimoixilეT msoflioSi arsebuli konfliqtebi da teritoriuli gadanawilebis procesebi.
– dResdReobiT dedamiwaze, sxvebTan erTad, arsebobs sami mTavari konfliqtis kera: aRmosavleT evropa, axlo aRmosavleTi, Soreuli aRmosavleTi, anu taivani. pirvelia israeli-iranis dapirispireba; meore – koleqtiuri dasavleTisa da ruseTis dapirispireba; mesame – amerikis SeerTebuli Statebisa da CineTis dapirispireba taivanis gamo. yvela wertili, cxadia, erTmaneTze zemoqmedebs. Tavidanve naTeli iyo, rom koleqtiur dasavleTs (romelic institucionalurad Camoyalibebulia, aqvs transnacionaluri gaerTianebebi) daupirispirdeboda TandaTan konsolidirebadi CineTi, irani, ruseTi. asec moxda – gamyarda ruseT–CineTis, ruseT-iranis da iran-CineTis kavSirebi, rac gulisxmobs am qveynebis strategiuli blokis Camoyalibebis winapirobas. ukve gamoikveTa, rom triadas mxars uWers e.w. globaluri samxreTis umravlesoba. ra Tqma unda, es saerTo monaxazia, radgan iq uamravi niuansia.
– rac Seexeba ukrainas?
– ruseT-ukrainis konfliqti logikurad midis ukrainis samxedro Zalebis marcxisaken. ukrainis sawarmoo simZlavreebi faqtiurad ganadgurebulia, rac gadarCa, imasac ar hyofnis samuSao Zala (romlis nawili ibrZvis, daiRupa an imaleba), demografiuli mdgomareoba katastrofulia. am viTarebaSi, ukrainis ekonomikis defolti drois saqmea.
– ruseTmac ganicada uzarmazari danakargebi. msxverpli iqac didia...
– ki, magram ruseTis demografiuli monacemebi, mosaxleobis ricxvi absoluturad gansxvavebulia. imis gancxadeba, rom `isinic ixocebian~, dRevandeli dRis fonze, araseriozulia brZolis velze realuri ZalTa Sefardebis TvalsazrisiT da ukrainaSi Sida-politikuri propgandisTvis aris gankuTvnili.
– xom mimdinareobs saubari samSvidobo molaparakebebze?
– arc am process uCans piri. bevri eqsperti saubrobs, rom samSvidobo molaparakebebi warumatebeli iqneba, radgan im Zalebs, romelmac sakuTari interesebis dasakmayofileblad konfliqti gamoiwvia, ukrainis mTavroba xelSi hyavs da danebebis saSualebas ar miscems. cxadia, Tavad zelenskis da misi gundisTvisac, omis damTavreba araTu politikuri, fizikuri gadarCenis sakiTxia.
– gasagebia, magram ramden xans unda gagrZeldes ase?
– rogorc acxadeben, ibrZoleben ukanasknel ukrainelamde. gasagebia, rom es pompezuri naTqvamia, magram sxva gza ar aqvT. omi gagrZeldeba manam, sanam kritikuli ar gaxdeba rusebis upiratesoba, Tumca frontis garRvevisTvis jerjerobiT, arc Tavad ruseTis federaciaa mowadinebuli da ara mxolod imitom, rom es did danakargebTan aris dakavSirebuli. omi ruseTisTvis warmoadgens politikuri dividendebis, warmatebuli vaWrobis da amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis Sida politikaze gavlenis berketis mopovebis saSualebas. yvelaferi es xsnis im ucnaurobebs, romelic blomadaa am omSi.
– ras gulisxmobT?
– gaixseneT xidebi dneprze, romelic isev ise dgas da romlis saSualebiTac Seuferxeblad miewodeba SeiaraReba aRmosavleT ukrainaSi mebrZol ukrainelebs. esec iseTi faqtia, romelzec rus propagandistebs maincdamainc ar uyvarT saubari. an is gaixseneT, rom ruseTSi es omi samamulod Seracxes, magram oficialurad isev specialur samxedro operaciad moixsenieba. isic saintereso faqtia, rom kolosaluri sanqciebis gamocxadebis miuxedavad, rusuli strategiuli saqoneli, magaliTad, gamdidrebuli urani, kvlav miewodeba SeerTebul Statebs.
– TviTmxilvelebis TqmiT, evrokavSiris gemebi rigSi dganan ruseTis portebSi.
– ki, TvalTmaqcobis, ormagi Tu xuTmagi standartebis demonstraciaa, iseve, rogorc ruseTTan sastikad dapirispirebul litvasa da latviaSi aSenda uzarmazari lojistikuri sawyobebi, saidanac sanqcirebuli saqonliT maragdeba ruseTi. es marTla komediaa – erTi mxriv, baltiispireTis qveynebis ruseTis mimarT gaJRerebuli radikaluri politika da meore mxriv, masTan gaxurebuli vaWroba.
– ramdenad marTalia informacia, rom poloneTic emzadeba omisTvis?
– ki, aseTi informacia arsebobs. aqve imasac vityvi, rom Tu vinmes hyavs evropaSi brZolisunariani armia, es poloneTia. danarCeni qveynebis armiebi Zalian mZime mdgomareobaSia.
– britaneTi?
– britaneTs am mxriv yvelaze mZimed aqvs saqme. gaxsovT, rom misi armia yovelTvis gamoirCeoda gansakuTrebuli profesionalizmiT, xolo floti iyo `zRvaTa mbrZanebeli~, Tumca dRes samxedro gemebi ver gamouyvaniaT okeaneSi teqnikuri problemebis gamo, Tanac ver avseben armiis rigebs. yvelaferi es kidev erTxel adasturebs imperiaTa daSlis cnobil meqanizms. Tu istorias gadavxedavT, britaneTis magaliTi qrestomaTiulia. rogorc cnobilia, rodesac imperiebi iRupebian an sxva stadiaze gadadian, saocar sigiJeebs da sisuleleebs akeTeben. es kanonzomierebaa. gvaxsovs, albaT, ra procesebi mimdinareobda sabWoTa kavSirSi misi daSlis dros, ra uqna am uzarmazari resursebis qveyanas araadekvatur mdgomareobaSi mosulma elitam. specsamsaxurebmac ver daicves kadrebi ucxoeli kolegebisgan. sxvaTa Soris, igive xdeba SeerTebul StatebSic.
– ruseTSic xom ar mimdinareobs msgavsi procesebi?
– ara, iq sul sxva ciklia. am etapze, ruseTi aRmavlobis etapze ufro imyofeba, vidre daSlis…
– rac Seexeba israelis konfliqts?
– aq ukve saqme gvaqvs Zalian dramatul procesTan, romelmac, SesaZloa, Seqmnas umarTavi situaciebi, msoflio omis dawyebis CaTvliT. kerZod, israelis xelisuflebis saTaveSi dgas beniamin neTaniahu, romelsac mxars uWeren uaRresad radikalurad ganwyobili religiuri Zalebi. am wreebis zegavlena dRevandeli israelis mTavrobis politikaze, kritikulad mniSvnelovania. aseve mniSvnelovania amerikaSi arsebuli fanatikosebis apokalipsuri iudeoqristianuli molodinebi. mokled rom vTqvaT, am wreebSi darwmunebuli arian, rom mesia mogvevlineba urwmunoebis gasanadgureblad.
– ebraelebic ganadgurdebian, rogorc urwmunoebi?
– am kiTxvaze pasuxi erTgvarovani aqvT: am periodisTvis ebraelebi moeqceviano. Cven vnaxeT beniamin neTaniahumis gamosvla amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis kongresSi, sadac igi Cavida, maT Soris, am wreebTan Sesaxvedrad. rogorc Cans, garkveuli mxadaWerac miiRo. rogorc ki vnaxe es gamosvla, maSinve davwere, rom saqme gvaqvs procesis eskalaciasTan. amis dasturi iyo, meore dResve druzebiT dasaxlebul qalaqSi, sabavSvo moedanze afeTqebuli raketa, romelic dabralda `hezbolas~. am ukanasknelma uaryo braldeba da ganacxada, rom es iyo israelis haersawinaaRmdego sistemis mier gaSvebuli raketa. amis miuxedavad, procesebi swrafad ganviTarda. bavSvebis daRupva gaxda kazus beli. dauyovnebliv ganxorcielda ori dartyma: beiruTSi gaanadgures `hezbolas~ politikuri da samxedro Zalebis liderebi, xolo TeiranSi mokles `hamasis~ lideri ismail hanie, romelic iranis prezidentis inauguraciaze dasaswrebad iyo iq Casuli. es iseTi Seuracxyofaa iranisTvis, romlis upasuxod datoveba avtoritets Seulaxavs rogorc Siga, ise gare politikur wreebSi. bavSvic ki mixvdeba – israelis mxridan saqme gvaqvs ara TavdacvasTan, aramed gamowvevasTan. rogorc ki es ucnauri 8 oqtombris teraqti moxda, romelmac idumalebiT gadaaWarba 11 seqtembris teraqts, naTeli gaxda, rom iran-israels Soris urTierToba mxolod SeiaraRebuli ZalebiT da gamanadgurebeli dartymebiT ganxorcieldeba. aqve isic aRsaniSnavia, rom irans ara aqvs pirdapiri sazRvari israelTan, ase rom, mxolod saraketo dartymebis ganxorcielebis SesaZlebloba rCeba. Tavad neTaniahus aqvs amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis mxardaWeris imedi, razec ukve Riad saubroben beniaminis momxre analitikosebi. kerZod, Tvlian, rom amerikas ZaluZs irans miayenos gamanadgurebeli dartymebi.
– ras miiRebs israeli iranis ganadgurebiT?
– ukve realurad SesZlebs Tavisi Sors mimavali gegmebis ganxorcielebas, kerZod, iranis Semdeg apirebs gaanadguros siria, erayi da gaafarToos israelis sazRvrebi. palestinelebs albaT, garekaven. kargad vxedavT, rac xdeba Razas seqtorSi da ara mxolod iq. ai, aseTi gegmebia, romelic dakavSirebulia maSiaxis molodinTan, romelsac aRarc malaven israelis oficialuri uwyebebi.
– vin unda SeaCeros israelis am gegmebis ganxorcielebis procesi?
– sxvaTa Soris, amaze Zalian bevri Zala zrunavs. maT Soris, ara iranis xelmZRvanelobisaTvis SegonebiT, rom am etapze ar daartyas da ar gaaRizianos israeli, aramed praqtikuladac. kerZod, iranisaTvis israelis da aSS-is SekavebisTvis aucilebeli iaraRis miwodebiT. is, rom israeli regionSi erTaderTi atomuri saxelmwifoa, umniSvnelovanesi faqtoria. mas aqvs atomuri triada, anu, atomuri qobinebis mitanis sahaero, saxmeleTo da sazRvao saSualebebi. aqvs megatonaze meti simZlavris 90-mde birTvuli qobini, romelTa gamoyenebiT mTeli regioni radiaqtiur udabnod gadaiqceva. swored amitom aris es konfliqti gansakuTrebiT saSiSi.
– rogorc Cans, arc erTi mxare ar apirebs danebebas?
– romc moindomon, aRarc aqvT amis saSualeba. aqve Tvlems konfliqtis mesame kera, taivanis sakiTxi, romelic erT-erTi mniSvnelovani Temaa aSS-is arCevnebSi. trampi Tvlis, rom ruseTis elita unda gadmoibiros da mTeli energia CineTTan dapirispirebaSi gamoiyenos. is ambobs, rom erT dReSi daamTavrebs oms ukrainaSi, rac cxadia, ararealuria, Tumca, cxadad aCvenebs trampis prioritetebs… ganvixiloT CineTis mimarTulebac. iq aSS cdilobs Seqmnas Soreuli aRmosavleTis aliansi: avstralia, axali zelandia, iaponia, samxreT korea, aSS da britaneTi. amas ki cdilobs, magram iqac uamravi winaRoba xvdeba. arsebobs CrdiloeT korea, romelic aseve atomuri saxelmwifoa, sakuTari miznebi aqvs da ZaluZs seriozuli ziani miayenos iqve ganlagebul amerikul samxedro bazebs. isic aRsaniSnavia, rom CrdiloeT koreasa da ruseTs Soris arsebobs strategiuli TanamSromlobis xelSekruleba, rac Zalian anerviulebs aSS-s. mokled, es aris msoflioSi arsebuli dapirispirebebis globaluri mimoxilva. Tu rogor ganviTardeba movlenebi, jer amoucnobia.
– ra adgils iWers saqarTvelo mTel am dapirispirebebSi?
– saqarTvelo aris e.w. anakondas maryuJis Semadgeneli nawili, cecxlis rkali, romelic ruseTisTvisaa gaTvlili da romlis amocanaa ruseTis gaZeveba Tbili zRvebidan, misi Seketva kontinentur siRrmeSi, ruseTSi marionetuli xelisuflebis dasma da misi uzarmazari resursebis eqspluatacia. am strategiis miznebSi aseve Sedis, ar dauSvan rusuli resursebisa da germanuli teqnologiebis urTierTxelsayrel pirobebSi integracia. jer kidev bismarki ambobda, rom anglo-saqsuri politikis bolo Jami maSin dadgeba, roca rusebi da germanelebi iTanamSromlebeno. axla viTareba sxvagvaria, CineTi teqnologiuri giganti gaxda da erTgvarad Caanacvla germania. Seiqmna ruseT–CineT-iranis triada. rac Seexeba saqarTvelos, anakliis porti, Zalian mniSvnelovani lojistikuri centria, romliTac dainteresebulia CineTi. es ar awyobs amerikelebs da britanelebs, romlebic saqarTvelos Tavis gavlenis zonad ganixilaven. msoflio saqonelbrunvis 80% sazRvao-saokeano gadazidvebze modis, romelTa kontroli swored sazRvao imperiebis xelSia ukve samasi welia. aqedan gamomdinare, maTTvis ar aris sasurveli iseTi lojistikuri proeqtebi, romlebic maTgan ar kontroldeba. adrec vwerdi, rom anakliis portis sakiTxSi Zalian frTxilad unda viyoT, raTa ar gadmovitanoT am geopolitikuri gigantebis brZola Cvens teritoriaze.
– es yvelaferi niSnavs Tu ara, rom Cven mainc ruseTis mxares vikavebT, rogorc amas media aRniSnavs?
– `ruseTis mxares vikavebT~ da msgavsi ideologiuri sisuleleebi, romliTac gatenilia Cveni media, aris Cveulebrivi provincialuri umecrebis demonstracia, romliTac Zalian bevri adamiania daavadebuli samwuxarod. axla vsaubrobT globalur dapirispirebebsa da interesebze da sakiTxs globaluri rakursidan unda SevxedoT. aSkaraa, rom apireben saqarTveloSi Secvalon xelisufleba, radgan xedaven, rom Cven aRmovCndiT qveyana, romelic bedavs da cdilobs daicvas sakuTari interesebi, cdilobs ar iTamaSos Sesawiri paikis roli. ra aris Cveni interesi? – Cveni interesia, saqarTvelo Camoyalibdes rogorc satransporto, lojistikuri, finansuri habi. aq iyos samSvidobo zona, keTilganwyobiT movagvaroT konfliqtebi afxazeTTan da oseTTan, ar gavifuWoT urTierTobebi Cvens did mezoblebTan – TurqeTTan da ruseTTan. sxvanairad Cveni usafrTxoebis sakiTxebi araTu ver gadawydeba, aramed gauaresdeba. zogadad, unda gvesmodes, rom msoflio wesrigi aRar arsebobs da samxedro Semadgenels sul ufro gadamwyveti mniSvneloba eniWeba, xolo Cvens regionSi, konfliqtis SemTxvevaSi, araregionaluri aqtorebis daxmarebis iluzia, ubralod, sigiJea.
– es procesi ukve gaviareT da axla igives, uaresi scenariT, gadis ukrainac.
– amaSia saqme… da rodesac, amas ver xedaven da raRac araadekvatur azrebs afrqveven televiziebidan es ambiciuri giJebi, Zalian mZime ganwyoba meufleba.
– demokratiaa, yvela sakuTar azrs afiqsirebs…
– diax, magram aq sul sxva fenomenTan gvaqvs saqme. rogorc ukve vTqvi, es adamianebi ver xedaven ZalTa ganlagebas regionSi. erTgvar topografiul kretinizmTan gvaqvs saqme, romlis erT-erTi mizezi, agenturul saqmianobasTan erTad, mZime ideologiuri indoqtrinacia gaxlavT.

