ომი ლაკმუსის ქაღალდის ფუნქციით ანუ ახალი გეოპოლიტიკური სურათი – ევროპაში
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ukve naTelia, rom ukrainaSi ganviTarebuli procesebi evropaSi axal geopolitikur suraTs qmnis – ruseT-ukrainis mimdinare oms lakmusis qaRaldis funqcia ekisreba da mraval kiTxvas badebs, romlebic jerovan pasuxs iTxovs. am sakiTxebze gvesaubreba saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis specialisti, saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa institutis (jipa) profesori giorgi koberiZe.
– dRes ukrainaSi, garkveulwilad, wydeba Tu ara evropis geopolitikuri mdgradobis sakiTxi?
– meore msoflio omis Semdeg evropaSi dasrulda dapyrobiTi omebi. swored ruseTis mxridan dapyrobiTi omi ukrainaSi cvlis im geopolitikur suraTs, romelic Camoyalibda meore msoflio omis Semdeg da gulisxmobda imas, rom dapyrobiTi omebi dasruldeboda. dapyrobiTi omebis precedentis dabruneba niSnavs, rom SesaZloa, msgavsi survili gauCndes nebismier sxva saxelmwifos, romelsac aqvs pretenzia Tavis mezobelTan, an sxva saxelmwifosTan. aseT viTarebaSi omebi SeiZleba gavrceldes ara mxolod evropis, aramed nebismier sxva teritoriazec. rac ufro susti iqneba saxelmwifo, miT ufro safrTxis qveS dgeba misi yofna-aryofnis sakiTxi. usafrTxod verc Zlieri saxelmwifoebi iqnebian, radgan dapyrobiTi omis precedenti, zogadad, gadamdebia.
– ra cxadyo TiTqmis samwlianma omma samxedro, politikuri da ekonomikuri TvalsazrisiT?
– am omma cxadyo, rom ruseTs Tavdacvis mimarTulebiT uWirs. mas Tavdapirvelad aqcenti mTlianad gakeTebuli hqonda Tavdasxmaze, imaze, rom mowinaaRmdege, masobriv ieris, ver gauZlebda, anu Sokis efeqtze hqonda ruseTs gaTvla. kremli ver iTvaliswinebda imas, rom ukraina winaaRmdegobas gauwevda, eqneboda maRali samxedro morali da a. S. aqedan gamomdinare, ar iyo mzad xangrZlivi omisTvis, es erTi, da meore – ar iyo mzad sakuTar teritoriaze samxedro moqmedebebis warmoebisTvis. Cven vixileT, rom ukrainuli Seteva kurskis olqSi ruseTisTvis moulodneli aRmoCnda sxvadasxva TvalsazrisiT. ruseTis ekonomika gaTvlili iyo sanqciebze, sanqciebisTvis Tavis aridebaze, magram ar elodnen, rom misi ekonomikis saSualebebi, maT Soris navTobis, gazis realizacia masobrivad SeizRudeboda da, aseve, ukrainelTa mxridan iqneboda dabombili esa Tu is obieqti. swored ekonomikaze masobrivma ieriSma da dabombvam moaryia ruseTis ekonomika da negatiuri Tvalsazrisi gaaCina, rac am sferosTvis fundamenturi mniSvnelobisaa.
– amJamad omis ra fazaa ukrainaSi?
– rusebs mimdinare wlis ganmavlobaSi hqondaT iniciativa, sanam ukrainelebi gadavidodnen kontrSetevaze kurskis mimarTulebiT, magram viciT, rom doneckis olqSi rusuli iniciativa daaxloebiT imdenive teritoriis dakavebas gulisxmobs (aTas samas kvadratul kilometrze maqvs saubari), ramdenic ukrainelebma sul raRac or kviraSi daikaves kurskis olqSi. es aris imis damadasturebeli mTavari faqti, rom rusebma gaiRes Zalian didi msxverpli. Tavad ukrainelebs Tu davujerebT, pokrovskSi (doneckis olqi) rusebma, daaxloebiT, 50-60 aTasi samxedro dakarges. ruseTi amas arc uaryofs da arc adasturebs. mTavari is aris, rom ruseTs uWirs cocxali Zalis mxriv. rogorc viciT, ruseTis armia iyo mTlianad profesionaluri, amas emateboda wvevamdelebi, aseve, mobilizebulebi da bolos – patimrebi. am mimarTebiT ruseTs metad gauWirda, radgan profesionalur armiaSi danakargi Zalian maRali iyo omis pirvelsave wels, pirvelsave TveebSi. viciT, rom mobilizebulebs maRali motivacia ar aqvT, Tan gaviTvaliswinoT, rom es ar aris sayovelTao mobilizacia, – sayovelTao mobilizacia imiT gansxvavdeba standartuli mobilizaciisgan, rom gulisxmobs masobrivad yvelas gawvevas, xolo nawilobrivma mobilizaciam fundamenturi cvlilebebi ver Seitana am omSi… saerTod, wvevamdelebi yvelaze problemuri Zalaa nebismier omSi iqidan gamomdinare, rom maTi tyved Cavardna Zalian azaralebs samxedro morals, zogadad, qveyanaSi, aseve, negatiur suraTs qmnis politikuri da socialuri TvalsazrisiT.
– rogorc cnobilia, ukrainam ruseTis teritoria – kurskis olqi daikava. ra mxrivaa es mniSvnelovani?
– kurskis olqi aris kritikuli wertili, romlis dakaveba gulisxmobda ukrainis sumis olqisTvis erTgvari faris Seqmnas, romelsac rusebi masobrivad bombavdnen Tveebis ganmavlobaSi. garda amisa, ukrainelebma daibrunes iniciativa, romelic am xnis ganmavlobaSi hqondaT rusebs. ukrainuli samxedro morali Zalian amaRlda, xolo rusuli mxare demoralizebulia, imitom, rom maT sakuTari teritoriis dakargva uwevT. amasTan, vixileT, rom wvevamdelebi tyved Cavardnen, rac yvelaze didi dartymaa samxedroebze, radganac teritoriebis dacva uwevT wvevamdelebiT, romlebic am misias Tavs ver arTmeven. vixileT, rom ukrainelebma daaCoqes wvevamdelebi, es yvelaferi moralurad Zalian mZimed aisaxeba rusul realobaze. sami politikuri Rirebuleba aqvs am yvelafers. pirveli aris is, rom rusebi didi xnis ganmavlobaSi cdilobdnen am omis gayinvas, magram axla es veRar moxdeba imitom, rom pirveli – rusuli teritoriebi okupirebulia, meore – ukrainelebs gadalaxuli aqvT wiTeli xazi, anu rusebi amtkicebdnen, rom iqnebodnen Seuvalni Tu omi maT teritoriaze gadavidoda. faqtobrivad, omi gadavida ruseTis teritoriaze da rusebma igrZnes omis raoba. mesame aris is, rom es teritoriebi SeiZleba mogvianebiT gaicvalos ukrainul teritoriebSi, romlebic rusebs aqvT okupirebuli, amitomac am sam politikur Rirebulebas Zalian didi mniSvneloba aqvs, magram me Tu mkiTxavT, politikuri wiTeli xazis gadakveTa mniSvnelovani efeqtia, gamoCnda, rom ruseTi arc iseTi Zlieri saxelmwifoa, rogorc is am xnis ganmavlobaSi amtkicebda.
– kus nabijebiT mimdinareobs ukrainisTvis axali antisaraketo kompleqsebis miwodeba. ra aris amis mizezi?
– nebismieri Cavardna miwodebaSi aris problema ukrainisTvis. sasurvelia, rom amerikam ganaaxlos misTvis didi raodenobis iaraRis miwodeba. aseve, mniSvnelovania ukrainisTvis uflebis micema, rom dasavluri SeiaraRebiT dabombon ruseTSi mdebare poziciebi. es aris aucilebeli, dasavleTi ki jerjerobiT, Tavs ikavebs, rac Zalian cudia.
– britanulma gazeTma `fainenSel Taimsma~ gamoaqveyna statia, romlis Tanaxmad, trampi, gaprezidentebis SemTxvevaSi, molaparakebebis gamarTvas mosTxovs putins da zelenskis da putins garigebas SesTavazebs ukrainis sazianod. ras fiqrobT amaze?
– dasavleTis axlandeli pozicia araTanmimdevrulia, sxvadasxvanairia. magaliTad, britaneTi, skandinaviis qveynebi, baltiispireTi, poloneTi ufro Tamamebi arian. aSS frTxilobs, rac cudia imitom, rom amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis aseTi poziciiT sargeblobs ruseTi, romelsac arasdros arafris eSinia, garda Zalisa. rodesac xedavs, rom aSS xisti ar aris, es qmnis seriozul gaurkvevlobas uSualod frontis xazze, ukrainelTa rigebSi. SeiZleba vTqvaT, rom baidenis administracia Zalian Zlieri ver gamodga sagareo politikur gamowvevebTan mimarTebiT. arada, ukrainelebma yvela wiTeli xazi gadakveTes da aCvenes, rom didi mniSvneloba rusul muqarebs arc ki hqonia arasdros. saerTod, trampi araprognozirebadi figuraa, mied-moedeba, ambobs, rom yvelaze unariani figuraa, magram ase ar aris. trampis molodinebi, rom am oms daamTavrebs, an piriqiT, moagebinebs, carieli politikuri gancxadebebia, rogorc sCvevia. samwuxarod, trampis administraciaSi xvdebian iseTi adamianebi, romlebsac kavSiri aqvT ruseTTan, rac Zalian cudi da saSiSi movlenaa. vfiqrob, rom trampis gamarjvebis SemTxvevaSic ki bevri sakiTxis winaswar ganWvretis saSualeba ar gvaqvs, vinaidan igi araTanmimdevruli pirovnebaa, Tumca potenciurad mis administraciaSi SeiZleba moxvdnen iseTi adamianebi, romlebsac SeuZliaT iTamaSon negatiuri roli aRniSnul samxedro moqmedebebSi.
– dRevandeli gadasaxedidan ra iqneba dasavleTisTvis wiTeli xazi ruseTTan daTmobis TvalsazrisiT?
– dasavleTisTvis wiTeli xazi aris am teritoriebis oficialuri aneqsiis aRiareba. igi arasdros daTanxmdeba, rom sazRvrebi oficialurad Seicvalos da Seiqmnas precedenti, rac, ra Tqma unda, dasavleTisTvis iqneba saziano. amitom am ambavs gamovricxav. rac Seexeba sxva wiTel xazs (birTvuli iaraRis garda, romelic aseve wiTeli xazia da amas dasavleTi ar apatiebs aravis), rTuli saTqmelia, ra SeiZleba iyos aseTi, imitom, rom ruseTma yvela saerTaSoriso SeTanxmeba daarRvia, moawyo masobrivi xocva-Jleta, romelsac aqvs genocidis xasiaTi da es ganaxorciela mariupulSi, buCaSi, irpinSi. ruseTi ganurCevlad bombavda mSvidobian qalaqebs, tyveebs xvretda masobrivad, amitomac wiTeli xazebi man ukve gadakveTa, rac dasavleTisTvis, praqtikulad, erTgvari gamofxizlebis saSualeba gamodga. axla dasavleTisTvis aucilebelia, Tavadac amoqmeddes da es qmedeba iyos Zalian xisti, arsebuli gamowvebis adekvaturi.
– birTvuli iaraRis gamoyenebis safrTxe arsebobs?
– birTvuli iaraRis gamoyenebis safrTxe, am etapze, minimaluria iqidan gamomdinare, rom putins Zalian uyvars Tavisi Zalaufleba, is aris mkvleli, magram naklebad – TviTmkvleli. putinma icis, rom birTvuli iaraRis gamoyenebas SeiZleba mohyves misi reJimis Zalian mZime dasasruli. es SeiZleba gulisxmobdes moskovis mimarTulebiT yvela dasavluri iaraRis gamoyenebaze mwvane Suqis anTebas, garda birTvuli iaraRisa, rac gulisxmobs, rom amas vercerTi reJimi ver gauZlebs, oms ki sxva fazaSi gadaiyvans. me namdvilad vfiqrob, rom putini SesaZloa mzad iyos moskovis dabombvebis sanaxavad. ra scenaric unda warmovidginoT dasavleTis mxridan, es iqneba yvela saxis iaraRis gadacema ukrainisTvis da Semdeg mwvane Suqis anTeba, rom SegiZlia moskovsac esrolo, Tu natos jaris brZola rusis jaris winaaRmdeg ukrainaSi, orive scenari ruseTis dasasrulis dasawyisi iqneba. amitom birTvul oms gamovricxav.
– putini amas winaT monRoleTSi imyofeboda, am qveyanas romis statuტze aqvs xeli mowerili, rac samxedro damnaSaveebis gadacemas iTvaliswinebs, magram vxedavT, rom saerTaSoriso samarTali putinis mimarT ar amoqmedda. es ras cxadyofs?
– monRoleTSi CasvliT putinma, erTgvarad, Zalis demonstrireba moaxdina da, aseve, monRoleTs Seuracxyofa miayena im gagebiT, rom am qveyanam ver daakava igi. gasagebia, mcire SesaZleblobebi aqvs monRoleTs, magram amiT Seiqmna dausjelobis negatiuri precedenti. es sxva agresorebsac waaqezebs, aqedan gamomdinare, putinis dasja aucilebelia raime sxvadasxva formiT, sxvadasxva Zalis mxridan. saubedurod, saerTaSoriso samarTali dgas Zalian mZime gamowvevebis winaSe, radganac precedentebi qmnian saerTaSoriso samarTals. am omma bevri cudi precedenti warmoaCina da Tuki msoflios surs, civilizebulma samarTalma saerTaSoriso sistemaSi kvlav iarsebos, aseTi precedentebi unda aRmoifxvras.
– dabolos, yvela omi, garkveulwilad, molaparakebebiT sruldeba. am mxriv, dasavleTi ramdenadaa dainteresebuli ruseTis realuri marcxiT?
– ruseTi, am etapze, ar aris mzad molaparakebebisTvis, gamomdinare iqidan, rom mas aqvs teritoriebi okupirebuli. Sesabamisad, ambobs, rom es teritoriebi misia. sanam ruseTi am teritoriebis aRiarebas ukan ar waiRebs, sanam jarebis gamoyvanaze ar daiwyebs saubars, anu ukrainis srul teritoriul mTlianobas ar aRiarebs, manamde rTulia saubari realur samSvidobo suraTze. jerjerobiT, orive mxares sjera, rom omis bedi wydeba frontis xazze, anu molaparakebebis dro ar damdgara. zogadad, molaparakebebis dawyebas sWirdeba ara mxolod politikuri neba, aramed omSi erTi mxaris iseTi dasusteba, rom mas aRar sjerodes Tavisi politikuri Sedegis miRwevisa. SegviZlia vTqvaT, rom dRes ruseTs amis jer kidev sjera da rodesac amas aRar daijerebs, warmatebuli molaparakebebic mosalodneli iqneba.