თურქეთის არჩევნების მთავარი მოულოდნელობა და პრეზიდენტობისთვის ბრძოლის მეორე ტური – უკრაინაში
ნინო ცხვარაძე 591 98 24 30
31 marts ukrainaSi saprezidento arCevnebi gaimarTa, Tumca imis gamo, rom xmebis saWiro raodenoba prezidentobis verc erTma kandidatma miiRo, meore turi dainiSna. amdenad, 21 aprils gairkveva, vis sasargeblod gaakeTebs arCevans mosaxleoba.
saprezidento arCevnebis meore turSi erTmaneTs iumoristi vladimer zelenski da ukrainis moqmedi prezidenti petro poroSenko daupirispirdebian. maTgan pirvel turSi xmebis 30 procentze meti swored axalgazrda komikosma moipova, xolo meore adgili – xmaTa 16 procentze metiT, petro poroSenkos ergo. ukraineli amomrCevlis 13 procentze metis xma qveynis yofilma premierma iulia timoSenkom miiRo, Tumca, cxadia, is meore turs gamoeTiSeba. saTqmelia isic, rom ukrainis prezidentobis msurvelTa sia sakmaod vrceli iyo – arCevnebSi kenWs 39 kandidati iyrida. erTi saintereso detalic – Tu jer kidev moqmedma prezidentma petro poroSenkom saqarTvelos eqsprezidents ukrainis moqalaqeoba CamoarTva da qveyana daatovebina, vladimer zelenski, romelsac amomrCevlis umravlesobam dauWira mxari, gaprezidentebis SemTxvevaSi mixeil saakaSvilisTvis moqalaqeobis aRdgenas aanonsebs.
31 marts arCevnebi Catarda TurqeTis respublikaSic, sadac adgilobriv TviTmmarTvelobebs irCevdnen. riT iyo gamorCeuli es ori arCevnebi da rogor ganviTardeba am qveynebSi politikuri procesebi? `aWaris~ kiTxvebs politologma aslan lorTqifaniZem upasuxa . .
– batono aslan, mezobeli TurqeTiT daviwyoT. rogor Caiara merebisa da sakrebuloebis arCevnebma?
– TurqeTis moqalaqeebma 31 martis adgilobrivi TviTmmarTvelobis arCevnebze qveynis 81 regionSi merebi da sakrebulos wevrebi airCies. arCevnebis dRes 4 adamiani daiRupa da 50-mde daSavda. aRmosavleT malaTias provinciaSi opoziciuri politikuri partiis – `bednierebis~ 2 wevri mmarTveli partiis kandidatis naTesavma mokla, xolo TurqeTis samxreTSi, gazianTefis provinciaSi mmarTveli da opoziciuri koaliciebis mxardamWerebs Soris gaxsnili cecxlis Sedegad, aseve, 2 adamiani daiRupa. saarCevno ubnebTan dapirispirebisas 50-mde adamiani daSavda. Tu am faqtebs ar miviRebT mxedvelobaSi, arCevnebma TurqeTSi mSvid viTarebaSi Caiara. es iyo pirveli arCevnebi mas Semdeg, rac prezidentma erdoRanma Tavi mouyara TiTqmis srul Zalauflebas qveyanaSi. SarSan rejeb Taif erdoRanis saprezidento da saparlamento arCevnebSi gamarjvebis Semdeg, adgilobrivi TviTmmarTvelobis arCevnebi misi legitimaciis gamocda iyo – mas ndobis xelaxali mopoveba mouxda msxvili opoziciuri partiebis gaerTianebis, demokratiis xarisxis Semcirebis, ekonomikuri recesiis, fasebis zrdisa da umuSevrobis gazrdili maCveneblis fonze.
– ramdenad konkurentunariani iyo arCevnebi?
– konkurencia, ZiriTadad, mmarTvel da opoziciur partiaTa koalicias Soris iyo. mmarTveli koalicia amjeradac 2 mmarTveli politikuri partiisgan Sedgeboda: erdoRanis `samarTlianobisa da ganviTarebis~ da `nacionalisturi moZraobis~ partiebisgan. opoziciur aliansSic 2 partia gaerTianda: TurqeTis mTavari opozicuri Zala – `saxalxo respublikuri partia~ da aseve, zomieri nacionalisturi `kargi partia~. opoziciur bloks did qalaqebSi merobis kandidatebi konkurentebad ar dauyena proqurTulma saparlamento opoziciurma Zalam – `xalxTa demokratiulma partiam~. opoziciurma koaliciam aRar dauSva gasuli arCevnebis Secdoma da nacionalisturi `bednierebis~ partia koaliciaSi aRar Seiyvana, rac iyo swori politikuri nabiji, radgan koaliciaSi misma monawileobam maSin opoziciur bloks erTguli, zomieri nacionalisturi, liberaluri eleqtoratis nawili daakargvina. arCevnebma mTlianobaSi konkurentul garemoSi Caiara, Tumca saxelisuflebo koalicias hqonda upiratesoba administraciuli resursis saxiT.
– ra SedegiT dasrulda arCevnebi, ramdenad mosalodneli iyo da aRiares Tu ara igi arCevnebSi CarTulma politikurma subieqtebma?
– arCevnebis Sedegebi logikuri iyo da is didad ar gansxvavdeboda gasuli arCevnebis Sedegebisgan. mTavari moulodneloba TiTqmis 20-milioniani stambolis arCevnebis Sedegi gaxldaT, sadac mcire upiratesobiT opoziciurma koaliciam gaimarjva. dasrulda erdoRanis meoTxedsaukunovani mmarTveloba qveynis yvelaze did qalaqSi, romelic TurqeTSi saarCevno placdarmia. mmarTvelma partiam marcxi ganicada aseve, yvela did qalaqSi. esenia: izmiri, antalia, mersini, arTvini, ardahani da dedaqalaqi ankara. Tumca mmarTvelma koaliciam regionebis umravlesoba – 50 regioni da 680 raioni moigo, opoziciurma koaliciam ki warmatebas – 21 regionsa da 210 raionSi miaRwia. qurTuli raionebis didi nawili proqurTulma `xalxTa demokratiulma partiam~ moigo. jamSi mmarTvelma koaliciam amomrCevelTa xmebis 51,64% miiRo, xolo opoziciurma koaliciam – 37,57%. winaswari monacemebiT, qveynis masStabiT, politikuri partiebis mixedviT, xmebi Semdegnairad gadanawilda: mmarTveli `samarTlianobisa da ganviTarebis partia~ – 44, 33%; opoziciuri `saxalxo respublikuri partia~ – 30,12; opoziciuri `kargi partia~ – 7,45%; saxelisuflebo radikaluri `nacionalisturi moZraoba~ – 7,31%; proqurTuli `xalxTa demokratiuli partia~, romelic arc erTi saarCevno blokis wevri ar yofila – 4,24%; opoziciuri blokis yofili, radikaluri islamisturi `bednierebis partia~ – 2,71%. sxva partiebma umniSvnelo Sedegebi aCvenes. arCevnebis Sedegebi arc erT partias am dromde ar gauprotestebia, Tu ar CavTvliT mmarTveli koaliciis ukmayofilebas stambolis arCevnebis SedegebTan dakavSirebiT. maT scades xmebis xelaxali gadaTvlis moTxovna centraluri saarCevno komisiisgan. mxolod 8 ubanze gadaiTvlian biuletenebs. vnaxoT, iqoniebs Tu ara es procesi gavlenas stambolis saerTo Sedegze.
– erdoRanma mniSvnelovnad SezRuda demokratia TurqeTSi. ram ganapiroba, rom saarCevno administraciebis mimarT opozicias pretenziebi ar hqonia?
– TurqeTSi centraluri da saolqo saarCevno komisiebis dakompleqtebis saintereso modelia. centraluri saarCevno komisiis formirebaSi monawileoben 15-kaciani uzenaesi da saapelacio sasamarTloebi. ceskoSi 7 ZiriTadi da 4 saTadarigo wevria, romelTagan 6-s uzenaesi sasamarTlo niSnavs, xolo 5-s – saapelacio sasamarTlo. regionebis saarCevno komisiebic kompleqtdeba sasamarTlos mier SerCeuli pirebiT. raionul-saubno saarCevno komisiebs bolo arCevnebSi saukeTeso Sedegebis mqone partiebi akompleqteben, xolo maTi Tavmjdomareebi upartio wevrebi arian. axali konstituciiT, erdoRans, parlamentTan erTad, srulad SeuZlia uzenaesi da sxva sasamarTloebis dakompleqteba anu mosamarTleTa vadis gasvlis Semdeg is, etapobrivad, Tavisi kadrebiT Caanacvlebs maT da sasamarTlo xelisuflebas TandaTan moaqcevs sakuTari gavlenis qveS. TurqeTis ceskos wevrebs vada 2022 wels gasdiT, ra drosac erdoRani miaRwevs sasurveli wevrebiT maT Canacvlebas da 2023 wlis saparlamento arCevnebis dros eyoleba morCili saarCevno administraciebi. manamde ki ver axerxebs saarCevno administraciis kontrols da amiTaa ganpirobebuli saarCevno Sedegebis zusti dafiqsireba. amitom ar aqvT pretenziebi opoziciur politikur partiebs centraluri saarCevno komisiis mimarT.
– batono aslan, saintereso procesebi viTardeba ukrainaSic . . .
– getyviT, rom arCevnebis Sedegebi didwilad daemTxva winaswari gamokiTxvebis monacemebs. winaswari monacemebiT, zelenskim xmebis 30,24% miiRo, xolo poroSenkom – 15,92%. swored es ori kandidati ibrZolebs meore turSi, romelic 21 aprils gaimarTeba. mniSvnelovani, gadamwyveti iqneba mesame adgilze gasuli timoSenkos daaxloebiT 14%-iani eleqtoratis arCevani meore turis kenWisyris dros, miuxedavad imisa, `batkivSinas~ lideri acxadebs, rom is arc erT kandidats mxars ar dauWers. ukrainaSic TurqeTis msgavsad, kenWisyris dros, ar yofila im xarisxis darRvevebi, romelic saboloo Sedegebze gavlenas moaxdenda.
– romel kandidats aqvs me-2 turSi gamarjvebis meti Sansi da ratom?
– ukrainis arCevnebi, tradiciulad, miliarderebis politikuri konkurenciaa. TiTqmis yvela kandidatis ukan didi finansuri resursis mqone biznesmenebi dganan. vinaidan politikosebis mimarT sazogadoebis ndoba dabalia, miliarderTa erTma jgufma saprezidento arCevnebSi popularuli Soumeni CarTo. am meTodma gaamarTla. zelenskis ukan miliarderi kolomoiskic dgas, romelic aqamde mxars timoSenkos uWerda. swored mis televiziaSi saqmianobda saukeTeso Sedegis mqone saprezidento kandidati. timoSenkos saxelisuflebo resursebi da saxelmwifos marTvis gamocdileba aqvs. SesaZloa, arCevnebis meore turSi zelenskis amomrCevlebma xma poroSenkos dauWiron, radgan mas aranairi gamocdileba ar aqvs politikuri saqmianobisa da sajaro mmarTvelobiT struqturebSi muSaobis. am mizeziT, timoSenkos eleqtoratis ufro metma nawilmac SesaZloa, arCevani moqmed prezidentze SeaCeros. Tumca es mxolod varaudebia da me-2 turis arCevnebis zusti prognozireba rTulia.