სასიკეთო ცვლილება – ლარი მყარდება… მაგრამ როდის აისახება ეს ფასებზე?
ნათია იმნაიშვილი 27 48 93 –
lari gamyarebas ganagrZobs, erovnuli valuta kovid-19-is pandemiamde periodis niSnuls ubrundeba. cxadia, sainteresoa, ram gamoiwvia es sasikeTo cvlileba, rogoria mokle da saSualo periodSi erovnuli valutis perspeqtiva da rodis aisaxeba laris gamyareba fasebze?
– erovnuli valutis – laris dolarTan mimarT gamyarebis mizezi gare faqtorebi gaxda, maT Soris, eqsportis gazrda, fuladi gadmoricxvebi da turizmis aRdgena, – ganacxada saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis prezidentma koba gvenetaZem.
laris kursma gamyareba Tebervlis dasawyisidan daiwyo. ukve 4 Tebervals erovnulma bankma laris gacvliTi kursi aSS dolarTan mimarTebiT 3 GEL/$1 niSnulze qveviT daadgina. gacvliTi kursi 9 Tebervals aris 2,92 GEL/$1.
koba gvenetaZis TqmiT, erovnuli valutis bolodroindeli gamyareba ukavSirdeba gare seqtoris gaumjobesebas, romelic gulisxmobs produqciis eqsports, sazRvargareTidan gadmoricxvebis zrdas da saerTaSoriso turizmidan Semosavlebis nawilobriv aRdgenas.
regulatoris xelmZRvanelma aseve aRniSna, rom monetaruli politikis gamkacrebiT izrdeba ucxoelebis interesi fasiani qaRaldebisadmi larSi, radganac makroekonomikur marTvaSi ekonomikuri gundis kargi gamocdilebis wyalobiT, larSi depozitebze moTxovna gaizarda.
– ufro mokled rom vTqva, mTavari ekonomikuri faqtorebi rodesac gauaresda, laric gaufasurda da rodesac fundamenturi faqtorebi gaumjobesda, lari amasac asaxavs, – ganacxada gvenetaZem. amasTan, man aRniSna, rom laris gamyarebis gamo mosalodnelia fasebis Semcireba.
– iqidan gamomdinare, rom laris gacvliTi kursi gamyarebulia, SeuZlebelia, rom ar aisaxos fasebze, – dagvaimeda man.
laris gamyarebis sakiTxs sxvadasxvanairad afaseben saxelisuflo gundsa da opoziciaSi. mmarTvel partias miaCnia, rom es swori strategiuli mimarTulebebis gatarebiT aixsneba, xolo opozicia fiqrobs, rom laris gamyareba rogorc mTavrobis mier aRebuli valebis, aseve erovnuli bankis mier ganxorcielebuli mkacri monetaruli politikis Sedegia.
– laris kursis gamyarebasTan dakavSirebiT, Zalian bevri kompleqsuri nabiji gadaidga. mogexsenebaT, erovnuli bankis erT-erTi sazedamxedvelo funqcia ukavSirdeba fuladi mimoqcevebis swor regulirebas. amis gaTvaliswinebiT, ra Tqma unda, erT-erTi mniSvnelovani faqtori swori ekonomikuri politikis SenarCunebaa. rogorc wesi, axali wlis Semdgom periodSi yovelTvis izrdeba fuladi gzavnilebi, romelic ucxoeTidan Semoedineba ucxouri valutis saxiT. es, Tavis mxriv, garkveulwilad, mniSvnelovan gavlenas axdens laris kursze. aseve, erT-erTi mniSvnelovani faqtoria pandemiis periodSi saxelmwifos swori politika, romlis xarjzec arcerTi didi proeqti ar SeCerebula. amanac garkveuli wvlili Seitana laris kursis gamyarebaSi. vfiqrob, im strategiuli mimarTulebiT, romelsac saxelmwifo warmarTavs, SesaZlebelia kidev gamyardes laris kursi da Semdgom es, ra Tqma unda, aisaxeba ekonomikur mdgomareobazec. cxadia, rodesac ufasurdeba erovnuli valuta, es aisaxeba produqtebis Rirebulebazec, Tumca maTi fasebis matebaze, inflaciur problemebTan erTad, sawvavze fasebis zrdac moqmedebs, rasac, samwuxarod, Cven ver varegulirebT. navTobis fiqsirebuli fasebi gamomdinareobs msoflio sanavTobo birJebidan, Tumca, Tuki Cven gaviTvaliswinebT imas, rom laris kursi dastabilurda da tendencia SenarCunebisken midis, SeiZleba vivaraudoT, rom garkveuli periodis ganmavlobaSi es tendencia SenarCundeba da sasursaTo produqciaze fasebi nel-nela daiwyebs klebas. Tqven iciT, rom Cven ar varT Zalian bevri produqtis mwarmoebeli, Sesabamisad, maragebi, romelic Semotanilia gansazRvrul fasad, ver gaiafdeba mis srul realizaciamde. ase rom, kompaniebma, importiorebma unda izrunon imaze, rom samomavlod SeZenili producia daxlebze aRmoCndes SedarebiT ufro iafad, – gviTxra aWaris umaRlesi sabWos Tavmjdomaris moadgile tite aroSiZem.
– am konkretul SemTxvevaSi laris gamyareba ramdenime faqtoriT SeiZleba aixsnas, es SesaZlebelia rogorc eqsportis zrdiT, aseve, fuladi gzavnilebiT iyos gamowveuli. rogorc iciT, fuladi gzavnilebi gaizarda, es ramdenad kargia an cudia, sxva sakiTxia, Tumca erT-erTi faqtoria, ramac gamoiwvia laris gamyareba, man dastabilureba daiwyo. ra Tqma unda, erT-erTi mniSvnelovani faqtori aris mTavrobis mier aRebuli valebi da erovnuli bankis mier ganxorcielebuli mkacri monetaruli politika. am faqtorebidan gamomdinare lari gamyarebas ganagrZobs. miuxedavad imisa, rom erovnul banks ukeTesobis molodinebic aqvs, gasaTvaliswinebelia, rom xSirad erTs ambobda, magram meore xdeboda. amitom rTulia prognozebis gakeTeba. inflaciasTan mimarTebiT erT-erTi faqtori SeiZleba iyos fasebis zrdis xarjze laris gamyareba, magram amis mtkicebiTi formiT Tqma rTulia. roca qveyanaSi maRali inflacia gvaqvs, rTulia dadebiTi molodinebi gvqondes, magram erovnuli banki ambobs, rom daaxloebiT aprilidan daiwyeba inflaciis tempis Semcireba da wlis bolos ukve miznobriv maCvenebels miuaxlovdeba, Tumca aucileblad unda gaviTvaliswinoT, rom inflaciis tempis Semcireba ar niSnavs fasebis klebas, ubralod, Semcirdeba fasebis mateba, Tumca navTobis importiori kompaniebi piriqiT – zrdas varaudoben. rogorc ukve vTqvi, erT-erTi faqtori ucxoeTidan gzavnilebia. es, ra Tqma und, cudia, radgan amiT SeiZleba vivaraudoT, rom yovelwliurad masStaburi migraciaa qveyanaSi, Cvengan midis Sromisunariani mosaxleoba. es, bunebrivia, kargad ar aisaxeba qveynis ekonomikaze. grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi es iqneba cudi, miuxedavad imisa, rom moklevadianSi SeiZleba iyos kargi. laris dastabilureba importiori kompaniebisTvis arcTu ise xelsayrelia, laris kursi dolarTan mimarTebaSi myardeba, amis paralelurad ki am kompaniebis mogeba mcirdeba, – aRniSna CvenTan saubarSi `lelos~ axalgazrduli organizaciis wevrma, ekonomistma arCil beriZem.