რომელ ბანაკში მოხვდება სამი პოსტსაბჭოთა ქვეყანა?
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ukrainaSi mimdinare movlenebma dagvanaxa, rom zesaxelmwifoebi pirvelobisTvis ibrZvian. zogi ambobs, rom dasavleTma daTmo ukraina, zogi ki Tvlis, rom, aSS-ma CaiTria ruseTi ukrainis oromtrialSi, raTa gamofitos misi resursebi da am fonze ismis araerTi kiTxva – rogor warimarTeba samomavlod dasavleT-ruseTis urTierToba, ratom ganizraxa ruseTma ukrainis satelit qveynad gadaqceva da mimdinareobs Tu ara msoflios xelaxali gadanawileba? dasavleli eqspertebi xazgasmiT acxadeben, rom amJamad ukrainaSi, garkveulwilad, mesame msoflio omi mimdinareobs da am mimarTebiT erTmaneTs dasavleTi da ruseTi upirispirdebian, meore msoflio omis Semdeg evropas aseTi farTomasStabiani omi marTlac ar axsovs, realurad, rogorc analitikosebi acxadeben, ruseTis mizania ara marto postsabWoTa qveynebis sruli kontroli, aramed praqtikulad, natos blokis daSla, rasac, cxadia, dasavleTi ewinaaRmdegeba. jer kidev uZvelesi droidan mimdinareobda teritoriebisTvis brZola, romis, bizantiis da a. S. zeobis xana amas cxadyofs. ra Tqma unda, sxvadasxva periodSi TamaSis gansxvavebuli wesebi iyo da aqedan gamomdinare, advili SesaZlebelia, rom zesaxelmwifoebs Soris garkveul sakiTxebTan dakavSirebiT Camoyalibdes konsensusi, didi albaTobiT, droTa ganmavlobaSi gamoikveTeba, Tu ra SeTanxmebas miaRweven mTavari aqtorebi sxvadasxva sakiTxTan dakavSirebiT. dRevandeli suraTidan naTelia, rom ar arsebobs Sansi aSS-isa da ruseTs Soris ukrainis (aseve saqarTvelos) saziano garigeba Sedges. aSS-isa da evrokavSiris gancxadeba, rom ar cnoben gavlenis sferoebs, CvenTvis Zalian mniSvnelovania. swored am konteqstSi unda ganvixiloT ruseTis agresia ukrainisadmi. gvaxsovs, rogor iTxovda putini dasavleTisgan misTvis gavlenis sferoebis dakanonebas. garkveulwilad am moTxovnis ignorirebam ganapiroba saomari moqmedebebi ukrainaSi. yovel SemTxvevaSi, ase amboben eqspertebi. sxvaTa Soris, kerZo analitikuri organizacia `stratfori~ 15 wlis winaT prognozirebda postsabWoTa sivrceSi ruseTis gavlenis gazrdas da agresias, Tu davakvirdebiT bolo 15 wlis procesebs, kargad davinaxavT, rom ruseTis federaciam SeZlo poziciebis gamyareba postsabWoTa sivrceSi, aseve araRiarebuli respublikebis cneba Semoitana saerTaSoriso arenaze. daarRvia suverenuli qveynebis teritoriuli mTlianoba. faqtia, evraziis, aziis da axlo aRmosavleTis regionSi ruseTis roli izrdeba, man, rogorc vTqviT, bolo 15 wlis ganmavlobaSi poziciebi gaimyara ara marto postsabWoTa sivrceSi, aramed axlo aRmosavleTSic. dasavleTi garkveulwilad, egueboda ruseTis hegemonias zemoaRniSnul regionebSi. rogorc Cans, ruseTma dasavleTis aseTi pasiuroba sisusted CaTvala da morigi ultimatumi wauyena aSS-s ukrainasTan mimarTebiT, ris mixedviTac ukraina, praqtikulad, ruseTis vasali unda gaxdes, amas ar daeTanxma arc dasavleTi da miT ufro ukraina da miviReT farTomasStabiani omi – ruseTi axorcielebs agresias ukrainis mimarT. miuxedavad imisa, rom ukrainelebi TavganwirviT ibrZvian, rom ara dasavleTis mkafio mxardaWera, maT gauWirdebodaT ruseTis Sekaveba. da mainc, Cndeba kiTxva – SeeZlo Tu ara dasavleTs am omis Tavidan acileba? eqspertebs sxvadasxva mosazrebebi gaaCniaT, Tumca isini erT rameSi Tanxmdebian: Cven gviwevs iseT msoflioSi urTierToba, imgvar politikur sivrceSi moRvaweoba, sadac saerTaSoriso samarTlis normebi irRveva. am civilizebuli normebis aSkara damrRvevia ruseTi da mis qmedebebze pasuxismgeblobis aReba dasavleTs uWirs, Znelia imis Tqma, rom aSS-sa da evrokavSirs am omis aRkveTa SeeZloT da es ar gaakeTes. Cven viciT, rom es omi ar momzadebula erT an xuT TveSi, omisTvis ruseTi seriozulad moemzada da SeiWra kidec ukrainaSi. Sedegad miviReT aTiaTasobiT daRupuli da daWrili, milionobiT ltolvili, aRarafers vambobT ganadgurebul qalaqebsa da soflebze. . . sxvaTa Soris, yirimis aneqsiamde yofilma amerikelma maRalCinosanma meTiu braizam Tqva, saqarTveloSi SeWris gamo ruseTisTvis sanqciebi rom dagvewesebina, yirimis aneqsia ar moxdebodao. . . savaraudod, ara mxolod aSS-is, aramed evrokavSiris mier miRebuli gadawyvetilebebic rom Seuvali, principuli yofiliyo, ra Tqma unda, ruseTi ver SeZlebda 2008 wels saqarTvelos teritoriebis miTvisebas, Cven kargad gvaxsovs 2007 wlis natos samiti, rodesac mxolod da mxolod aSS iTxovda, saqarTvelosTvis da ukrainisTvis map-i mieniWebinaT, anu daeTanxmebinaT germania, safrangeTi, italia zemoaRniSnuli qveynebi natos wevrobisTvis miecaT xma. rogorc cnobilia, nato aris koleqtiuri organizacia, sadac yvela subieqtis azrs iTvaliswineben da, samwuxarod, garkveul mizezTa gamo, saqarTvelos da ukrainas map-i ar mieniWaT. unda iTqvas, rom dasavleTis araTanmimdevrulobam imoqmeda ukrainis movlenebzec, rasac mohyva jer yirimis aneqsia da axla ukve farTomasStabiani agresia ukrainis mimarT ruseTis mxridan.
rogorc cnobilia, Tvenaxevaria mimdinareobs omi ukrainaSi. am omma garkveul kiTxvebs gasca pasuxi, daimsxvra ruseTis uZlevelobis miTi. udavoa, rom kremli varaudobda ukrainis ramdenime dReSi aRebas, Tumca ukrainis jari saswaulebs Cadis, mterma ver SeZlo kievis, xarkovis, odesis da dasavleT ukrainis dapyroba. ruseTs garkveuli warmatebebi aqvs aRmosavleT frontze, yvelaze sagangaSo is aris, rom ruseTma buCaSi sasaklao moawyo, daxvrita mSvidobiani moqalaqeebi. ukrainam es faqti genocidad Seafasa. analogiur Sefasebas akeTeben dasavleli liderebic. isini ar gamoricxaven rusi maRalCinosnebis haagis sasamarTlo pasuxisgebaSi micemas. es ar niSnavs, rom rusi samxedroebi da politikuri elita realurad agebs pasuxs, magram es damnaSaveebi ucxoeTSi samogzaurod ver wavlen. SeiZleba rusi CinovnikebisTvis es arafers niSnavs, magram dRevandel globalur samyaroSi izolaciaSi yofna sasikeTo ar iqneba, am mimarTebiT dasavleTi mZlavr ekonomikur sanqciebs mimarTavs ruseTis mimarT. unda iTqvas, rom nebismieri qveynisTvis sakmaod arasaxarbieloa dawesebuli ekonomikuri, Tu samxedro sanqciebi, bunebrivia, sanqciebi gavlenas axdens konkretuli qveynis ekonomikur da politikur mdgomareobaze, isini ruseTs ukve TiTqmis ori Tvea dauwesda. am sanqciebis mizani isaa, rom ruseTi daubrundes saerTaSoriso samarTlebriv normebs, magram. . . yvelafris miuxedavad, ruseTi globalur politikaSi e. w. dausjelobis sindromiTaa gamorCeuli, akeTebs imas, rac surs. amitom vidre mas radikaluri sanqciebi ar dauwesdeba (navTobze fasis xelovnuri dacema da saerTod, rusul navTobsa da gazze uaris Tqma), manamde dasavleTi sasurvel Sedegs ver miaRwevs, sxvagvar viTarebaSi ruseTTan Znelia saubari, vaWroba, radgan is ukiduresobebs iTxovs, magaliTad, gavlenis sferoebis dakanonebas, teritoriebis gadanawilebas. amaze dasavleTi ar midis, radgan ukrainisa da saqarTvelos rusul orbitaSi darCena dasavleTs Sav zRvaze kontrols daakargvinebs. isic aRsaniSnavia, rom ruseTis mTavari amocanaa, saqarTvelo da ukraina msoflio politikis radarebidan gaqres. amis Sesaxeb saubroben politologebi: `ara mgonia, ruseTma SeZlos saqarTvelos mniSvnelobis daknineba, radgan Cveni samSoblo iseT zestrategiul regionSi mdebareobs, sadac ikveTeba zesaxelmwifoTa interesebi. . . saqarTvelo erTgvari dadasturebaa rusuli agresiisa da amis daviwyebas dasavleTi ar apirebs, garda amisa, rogorc cnobilia, aSS-is kongresma miiRo araerTi saqarTvelos mxardamWeri dokumenti, rac mravalismTqmelia. rom ara dasavleTis mxardaWera saqarTvelosadmi, Cvens qveyanas gauZneldeboda suverenitetis SenarCuneba~ _ acxadebs saerTaSoriso samarTlis specialisti levan jayeli. analogiuri Sexedulebisaa politologi gela iremaZe: `Tu Cven evropaze uars vityviT, mTlianad moveqceviT ruseTis orbitaze. garwmunebT, rom rogorc ki uarvyofT dasavlur kurss, saqarTvelo maSinve aRmoCndeba rusuli gavlenis qveS. . . erT rameSi unda SevTanxmdeT, saqarTvelo rogorc subieqti, damoukideblad ver iTamaSebs saerTaSoriso politikaSi. mniSvnelovania strategiuli partniorebis mxardaWera, raTa qveyanam SeinarCunos suvereniteti da saxelmwifoebrivad gaZlierdes~. cxadia, ruseT-saqarTvelos (aseve ruseT-ukrainis) urTierToba manamde ver iqneba normaluri, vidre okupirebuli teritoriebis deokupacia ar moxdeba. ra Tqma unda, aris sakiTxebi, risi daTmobac ar SeiZleba, esaa _ damoukidebloba, teritoriuli mTlianoba, suverenuli arCevani. ruseTma, rogorc eqspertebi acxadeben, unda icodes, rom saqarTvelos arcerTi xelisufali ar Seegueba arsebul realobas da mis dakanonebas afxazeTTan da cxinvalis regionTan dakavSirebiT, sxva sakiTxebis ganxilva, urTierTkompromisis miRweva ki SesaZlebelia, Tu, ra Tqma unda, ruseTi suverenuli qveynis arCevans pativs scems, anu imoqmedebs civilizebuli qveynis darad. rac Seexeba msoflios xelaxal gadanawilebas, udavoa, rom es ukve mimdinareobs, ukrainis omi amis TvalsaCino magaliTia. aq sakiTxavia, sami postsabWoTa qveyana (ukraina, moldova, saqarTvelo) romel banakSi moxvdeba. es umetes wilad, am saxelmwifoebis principulobaze da amave dros dasavleTis mxardaWeraze iqneba damokidebuli.