უკრაინა – გლობალური პოლიტიკის გასაღები?
laSa xomeriki 593 50 82 69 –
21- e saukunem mTeli planeta samwuxaro realobis winaSe daayena – gaxSirebuli bunebrivi kataklizmebi, omebi kacobriobas kargs rom arafers uqadis, amas ukrainis movlenebic mowmobs. iavarqmnili qalaqebi da soflebi, ganadgurebuli ekonomika da daRupuli adamianebi, saSiSi ekosituacia mxolod ukrainis satkivari rodia, SeiZleba iTqvas, dRes ukrainaSi wydeba ara mxolod evropis, aramed msoflios bedic. globaluri politikis sakiTxebze Tavisi Tvalsazrisi gagviziara bsu-is profesorma laSa baJunaiSvilma.
– sanam ukrainis omze visaubrebdeT, minda gkiTxoT: dRes ukrainaSi wydeba Tu ara, garkveulwilad, evropis bedi?
– dRes ukrainaSi wydeba ara mxolod evropis, aramed msoflios bedic. ratom msoflios bedi? ukrainis omi ar aris evropuli, lokaluri omi, aramed is aris globaluri omi. davakvirdeT, am omis sacecebi pirdapir da peplis efeqtis gavlenas axdens msoflios sxvadasxva regionze. magaliTad, pirdapiri efeqti aris Savi zRvis akvatoriaSi mimdinare saomari moqmedebebi, am mxriv upiratesoba aqvs ruseTs, vinaidanDam saxelmwifos Sav zRvaSi tradiciulad hqonda udidesi Zala, Tumca am bolo dros kremli am upiratesobas veRar iyenebs, radgan aratradiciuli meTodebiT xorcieldeba ukrainis mxridan samxedro dartymebi ruseTis misamarTiT. kerZod, ukraina axali tipis iaraRs iyenebs, esaa sahaero da sazRvao dronebi, romlebic zians ayeneben ruseTs. ramdenime dRis win didi danakargi ganicada rusulma flotma.
– Tqven peplis efeqtic axseneT. . .
– diax, Cven vakvirdebiT CineTis moqmedebas taivanTan mimarTebaSi, gavrcelda kadrebi CineTis samxedro mobilizebisa da samxedro manqanebis gadaadgileba dafiqsirda taivanis materikul nawilSi. ismis kiTxva: sad aris aq peplis efeqti? ruseTis agresiam waaxalisa CineTis agresia. dRes samyaro iyofa or nawilad – demokratiuli sazogadoeba, romlis principia `demokratiuli sazogadoebebi ar omoben~, xolo meore aris demokratiis TvalsazrisiT ganviTarebadi saxelmwifo, maT Soris, axlo aRmosavleTis qveynebi, samxreT aziis saxelmwifoebi, sadac demokratia met-naklebad meore planzea. aseTi saxelmwifoebis politikaSi kvlav aqtualuria mecxramete da meoce saukunis pirveli naxevris realpolitika, romelic Zalasa da gavlenis sferoebzea dafuZnebuli. amitom ruseTis aseTi qmedeba axalisebs am tipis saxelmwifoebs, romlebsac koloniuri identobac da warsulic awvalebT, anu mzad arian, agresiuli qmedebebi gamoavlinon aseT konteqstSi, rac safrTxes Seuqmnis zogadad globalur wesrigs sxvadasxva regionSi. amas vxedavT Cven CineTis SemoTavazebul winadadebaSi sxvadasxva regionTan mimarTebaSi, sagareo politikaSi maT demokratiuli Rirebulebebi ar gaaCniaT, es gancda ar aqvT. CineTi, indoeTi, CrdiloeT korea, irani aqtiurad exmarebian ruseTs iaraRiT.
– ratom akeTeben isini amas, ra mizani amoZravebT?
– imitom, rom maTac aqvT samomavlod iseTi gegmebi, rogoric ruseTs aqvs sagareo politikaSi gavlenis sferoebTan dakavSirebiT – teritoriebis Zalismieri meTodebiT dabruneba. amdenad, SemdgomSi maT dasWirdebaT msgavsi Tanamoazreebi. isini mouwodeben ukrainas, dajdes molaparakebis magidasTan ruseTTan, rom ganxiluli iyos mSidoba teritoriebis daTmobis sanacvlod. es aris yvelaze metad gasaazrebeli, roca vsaubrobT ukrainis omis gavlenaze Tanamedrove msoflioze. Tuki amas SevxedavT mecnierebis da eqspertebis TvalsazrisiT, davinaxavT, rom ukrainis omma ara mxolod gavlena moaxdina 1991 wlis Semdeg modificirebul saerTaSoriso wesrigze, aramed peplis efeqti iqonia globalur politikaze.
– cxrameti Tvea, ukrainaSi omi mimdinareobs. ra aCvena am omma?
– pirveli: ruseTs ar hyavs msoflioSi nomer meore armia, rogorc is Tavis Tavs ganixilavda. am omma aCvena, rom ruseTs ar SeuZlia 21-e saukunis Sesabamisad omis warmoeba, Tumca aqvs Tanamedrove SeiaraReba, ZiriTadad, me-20 saukunis, civi omis droindeli samxedro teqnika, romelic gadaurCa sazRvargareT eqsports. . . meore da mTavari is aris, rom samxedro organizacia ruseTSi aris korumpirebuli, Tundac prigoJinis amboxma es kargad gamoavlina. mesame – TviTon samxedro struqtura ar aris mdgradi ruseTSi, magaliTad, amave amboxma aCvena ruseTis dauZlurebis realuri saxe, ukrainis omma ki realurad aCvena ruseTis sistemuri krizisi TiToeul sferoSi. mokled, saerTaSoriso sazogadoebis TvalSi ruseTi warmoCnda rogorc susti qveyana.
– xdeba Tu ara omSi gardatexa ukrainis sasargeblod?
– kontrSeteva cota rTuli sakiTxia imitom, rom Tuki Cven davakvirdebiT ruseTis samxedro taqtikas Tavdacvisunarianobis TvalsazrisiT, anu tranSeebis sistemas, romelic man moaswro da gaakeTa roca jer kidev siRrmiseulad iyo SeWrili ukrainis teritoriaze, kerZod, luganskisa da doneckis garkveul teritoriebze, dnepris marjvena sanapiroze, ukve Zalian rTulia mokle monakveTSi teritoriebis ganTavisufleba. SeuZlebeli araferia, Tumca simagreebis gadalaxva msxverplTan da xarjTanaa dakavSirebuli. . . ukrainas ar aqvs imis fufuneba, rom adamiani gawiros, ukraina gansxvavdeba mentalobiT ruseTisgan, anu aq mTavari ar aris Seawyvitos aTasobiT adamiani da aiRos raRac garkveuli teritoria, imitom, rom im teritorias mere SenarCuneba sWirdeba. ruseTi aris didi saxelmwifo da yvelaferzea wamsvleli. ruseTSi, rogorc cnobilia, adamianuri faqtori ar ainteresebT, mTavaria, politikuri da samxedro miznebi iyos miRweuli, rac ra Tqma unda, ukugdebulia dasavlur strategiebSi, sadac adamiani aris mTavari, adamianis sicocxles ufrTxildebian. cxadia, ukrainisTvis rTulia omi, is ibombeba, ingreva, magram ruseTisTvisac aranaklebia. Cven vxedavT ruseTis teritoriebis dabombvas dronebiT, riTac gamoCnda, rom ruseTi Tanamedrove omisTvis bolomde mzad ar yofila, anu rodesac SigniT, regionSi gibombaven strategiul obieqtebs, es imaze miTiTebs, rom ruseTs ar aqvs Tanamedrove samxedro inovaciaze pasuxi.
– Cndeba STabeWdileba, rom msoflio daiRala ukrainis omiT da cdilobs, es qveyana kompromisze daiyolios. Tqven ras fiqrobT?
– dasavleTis liderebisgan msgavsi gancxadebebi Cven ar gagvigia, Tu ar CavTvliT ungreTis premier-ministris pozicias, romelic garkveulwilad ruseTis interesebs lobirebs. aRsaniSnavia ukrainis prezidentis gancxadeba, sadac man pirdapir Tqva: ar iqneba aranairi mSvidoba, kompromisi ukrainis teritoriuli mTlianobis xarjze! kiTxvis pirveli nawili Seexeboda imas, ramdenad daiRala msoflio ukrainis omiT. ra Tqma unda, msofliom am omiT garkveuli zarali miiRo da SesaZlebelia viRaca ganicdides uaryofiT Sedegs amis gamo, Tumca upirvelesad, uaryofiT Sedegs ganicdis ukraina da ukrainelebi. aq ukrainisTvis aris mTavari teritoriuli mTlianoba da misi SenarCuneba, aseve, ruseTisTvis sakadrisi pasuxis gacema. sxvaTa Soris, zelenskis gancxadeba gaimeores ukrainis diplomatebma saerTaSoriso arenaze. rogorc Cans, maT gaafrTxiles dasavleTi, CineTi da sxva saxelmwifoebi, rom ar moxdeba garigeba ruseTTan teritoriebis dakargvis xarjze.
– musirebs azri, rom dasavleTs prognozirebadi putini ufro sWirdeba, vidre araprognozirebadi Zala xelisuflebaSi. amaze ras gvetyviT?
– prognozirebadi putinis SesaZlebloebis warmodgena rTulia. Cemi azriT, amerikas xSirad hqonia Secdomebi sabWoTa kavSiris da ruseTis liderebis prognozirebadobisa da maTi bunebis Sefasebis konteqstSi. maT xSirad dauSviaT Secdoma. mogiyvanT ramdenime magaliTs: prezidenti ruzvelti Tvlida, rom stalini iyo mSvidobismoyvare adamiani, ubralod, masze gavlenas axdendnen kremlis radikalebi, arada Cven kargad viciT, rom piriqiT – stalinis klanWebSi iyo es sistema. meore magaliTi xruSCovTan dakavSirebiT kenedis Sexedulebaa kubis krizisis dros. TiTqos xruSCovi iyo militaristulad ganwyobili generlebis garemocvaSi, arada misi devizi iyo `Cven Tqven (anu aSS-s) dagmarxavT~. uaxles istorias Tu gadavxedavT, gagaxsenebT bratislavas samits, sadac buSma Caxeda TvalebSi putins da ar daiSura diTirambebi. amerikuli politika ruseTis yvela lideris SefasebaSi, gansakuTrebiT mmarTvelobis dasawyisSi, cdeboda. imis Tqma, rom putini prognozirebadia, CemTvis warmoudgenelia, es igivea vTqvaT, hitleri prognozirebadi iyo. Secdomebs uSvebs am mimarTebiT dasavleTi. saidan amodian isini? aSS-is politikaSi moraluri principi muSaobs da rodesac ruseTis liderebis qmedebaSi raRac CasaWids xedaven, isini Tvlian, rom aris lideri, romelTanac SeiZleba saubari. arada, ruseTis liderebi iqcevian ise, rogorc maTi politikuri miznebisaTvisaa misaRebi. aqedan gamomdinare, putini SesaZlebelia ganvixiloT mxolod gansasjelis skamze, radgan mas danaSauli miuZRvis kacobriobis winaSe.
– ramdenad mosalodnelia, dasavleTis ZalisxmeviT Seicvalos putinis reJimi?
– bunebrivia, aravin apirebs ruseTSi iaraRiT Sevardnas da intervencias, TavisTavad putinis yofna-aryofna ruseTis mosaxleobis gadasawyvetia. SeiZleba, garedan daexmaron sanqciebis saSualebiT, esec xelSemwyobi faqtoria.
– Tu ruseTma CaTvala, rom omSi marcxdeba, gamoiyenebs atomur iaraRs?
– amis Tqma Zalian rTulia, birTvuli iaraRis gamoyeneba aris maRali pasuxismgebloba, atomuri iaraRi erTma saxelmwifom (aSS) gamoiyena, kerZod, iaponiis winaaRmdeg. atomuri iaraRis gamoyeneba gaxsnis pandoras yuTs, amitom pandoras yuTis gaxsna arcerT saxelmwifos, maT Soris, arc ruseTs surs, Tumca mas SeuZlia iseTi zianis miyeneba, rogorc iyo kaxovkis kaSxlis afeTqeba. msgavsi zianis miyenebis resursi ruseTs gaaCnia, Tumca esec, iribad, birTvuli iaraRis gamoyenebaa.
– rogor Seicvleba saerTaSoriso wesrigi, Tu es omi gaiyina?
– sanam omi ar damTavrdeba, zedmetia saubari saerTaSoriso wesrigze. omi arRvevs saerTaSoriso wesrigs, rTulia dRes visaubroT wesrigis konturebze, rogori iqneba is an ra formis, aq, wesrigis konteqstSi, mniSvnelovania, ukrainas hqondes usafrTxoebis garantia da am garantiaze iqneba agebuli albaT evropis usafrTxoebis sistemac, magram rogorc vxedavT, ver moxda omebis prevencia evropaSi, aseve, euTos sistemamac ver imuSava – dasavleT evropam saTadarigod datova evroatlantikuri usafrTxoebis sistema, romelic meore msoflio omis Semdeg dafuZnda, amitom iyo, rom natoSi gawevrianebis survili gamoTqves socialisturma da postsabWoTa qveynebma – isini darwmundnen, rom euTos sistema ver Seakavebda ruseTs da saWiro iyo qmediTi meqanizmebi, rogoric aris nato da meore – evrokavSiri. axal msoflio wesrigSi, gansakuTrebiT evropul arqiteqturaSi, mniSvnelovani roli mieniWeba ruseTTan frontispira saxelmwifoebze usafrTxoebis sistemis damkvidrebas, rom ruseTma veRar SeZlos am saxelmwifoebis suverenitetis xelyofa.