წინაასარჩევნო სურათი – საქართველოში
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Tvals Tu gadavavlebT qveyanaSi bolo dros ganviTarebul procesebs, davrwmundebiT, rom politikuri veli sakmaod damuxtulia, partiebi cdiloben, mosaxleoba daarwmunon TavianT upirstesobaSi. saarCevno vnebaTaRelva ukve TvalnaTelia. sayuradRebo da mniSvnelovania ganxorcielebuli samTavrobo cvlilebebi da axali opoziciuri platformis Seqmna.
saqarTvelo ganviTarebis axal fazaSia, politikuri kaleidoskopi intreress iwvevs siaxleebiT. aqedan umTavresia is, rom qveyanas axali premieri hyavs, romelmac sagareo da saSinao politikis TvalsazrisiT mniSvnelovani gzavnili gaaxmovana: ,,Cveni mizani iyo da aris evrokavSirSi gaerTianeba da aseve, nuli siRaribe da nuli okupacia~. . . `qarTuli ocnebis~ mmarTvelobis periodSi irakli kobaxiZe meeqvse premieria. es xSiri cvlilebebi, opoziciis TqmiT, mTavrobis araefeqtur muSaobaze miuTiTebs. yofili premieri acxadebda, rom qveyana Tanmimdevrulad viTardeba. iseTi suraTi iqmneboda, kaci ifiqrebda, rom mmarTvel partias saarCevnod RaribaSvili waruZRveboda, Tumca ase ar moxda. eqspertTa TqmiT, ivaniSvili darwmunda, rom arCevnebSi RaribaSvilis meTaurobiT monawileoba wamgebiani iqneboda xelisuflebisTvis. saTqmelia isic, rom RaribaSvils dasavlel liderebTan kargi urTierToba ar hqonda (Tu ar CavTliT ungreTis premiers). es sayuradRebo faqtoria, risi ignorirebac mmarTveli gundisTvis damazianebeli iqneboda. swored amis Sesaxeb saubrobs konfliqtologi paata zaqareiSvili: ,,ivaniSvils sWirdeba ufro efeqturi gundi, vidre RaribaSvils SeiZleboda hyoloda. . . amitom gadawyvita, arCevnebis win moiyvanos axali gundi~. sxvaTa Soris, Tu davakvirdebiT, mmarTveli partia saarCevnod yovelTvis axali premier-ministriT warsdgeboda mosaxleobis winaSe (ase iyo 2016 da 2020 wlebSi). Ees jerjerobiT amarTlebs. ra iqneba momavalSi, amas dro dagvanaxebs. amjerad opozicia mmarTveli partiis Sida dapirispirebaze saubrobs, erTurTs farulad RaribaSvilis da kobaxiZis gundebi upirispirdebian. amis Taobaze saubroben politikosebi, magaliTad, parlamentari iago xviCia: `kadrebis seriozuli krizisi aqvT da erTi da igive xalxis irgvliv uwevs triali biZina ivaniSvils. cdiloben, dagvajeron, TiTqos yvelaferi kargad aris. ministrebic imitom ar Secvala, rom xalxs es gancda hqonoda, Tumca yvela vxedavT, rom kargad araferic araa am qveyanaSi~.
ra Tqma unda, opoziciis zemoaRniSnul mosazrebas ar eTanxmebian mmarTveli gundis wevrebi. maTi TqmiT, qveyanaSi sagangaSo araferi xdeba da mTavrobis cvlileba Cveulebrivi ambavia. axali premieris SesaZleblobebSi eWvi epareba saqarTvelos prezident salome zurabiSvils: `rogor apirebT sazogadoebis evropuli dakveTis Sesrulebas?~ – prezidentma am paTosoT araerTi kiTxva dasva da amave dros opozicias axali jansaRi platformis Seqmnisken mouwoda. eqspertebi acxadeben, rom salome zurabiSvilma Tavisi bolo saprezidento angariSiT mmarTvel partiaze Suri iZia. arc `qarTuli ocnebis~ wevrebi indoben prezidents, maTi azriT, saqarTvelos prezidenti `nacmoZraobis~ paTosiT saubrobs da qveynis imijs dasavleTSi azaralebs. yuradReba miiqcia prezidentis amaswinandelma gancxadebamac evropuli rekomendaciebis Taobaze: `evrokavSiris 9 rekomendaciis myisierad ganxorcieleba ekisreba mas, vis xelSic Zalauflebis yvela berketia, ese igi mTavrobas, saparlamento umravlesobas da axla ukve maT mmarTvel biZina ivaniSvils.~ udavoa, rom zemoaRniSnuli evropuli rekomendaciebis Sesrulebaze iqneba damokidebuli saqarTvelos da evrokavSiris urTierToba. am mimarTebiTac opozicias pretenziebi aqvs xelisuflebis mimarT. rogorc opozicionerebi amboben, xelisufleba ar asrulebs evrokavSiris 9 rekomendaciis garkveul punqtebs. magaliTad, sasamarTlo sistema kvlav xelisuflebis gavlenis qveSaa, polarizacia sul ufro TvalSi sacemia. Aam mosazrebas, ra Tqma unda, ar eTanxmebian xelisuflebis wevrebi. maTi TqmiT, qveyana Tanmimdevrulad viTardeba da uaxloes momavalSi mosaxleoba amas igrZnobs, analitikosebi ki xelisuflebas swored am mimarTulebiT sxvadasxva sferoSi mniSvnelovani reformebis ganxorcielebas urCeven. Tu Cven kargad gavaanalizebT qveynis Sidapolitikur viTarebas (ekonomika, socialuri mdgomareoba, xelisuflebis marTvis praqtika), SeiZleba iTqvas, rom reformebi aucileblia yvela sferoSi. mimdinare reformebi, eqspertTa azriT, aCvenebs, rom is an arasworadaa dagegmili, an sasurvel Sedegamde araa misuli, amitom gasaanalizebelia, reformebis procesi ramdenad aris Sedegze orientirebuli, ra xarvezebia am mxriv. sayuradReboa politolog gela iremaZis mosazreba: `axali reformebis talRa qveynis yvela sferos (politika, ekonomika, kultura, socialuri mimarTuleba) unda Seexos, vinaidan qveynis ganviTareba dausrulebeli procesia, miT ufro am saukuneSi. swored am mxriv 2024 wlis mozaika qveyanaSi didwilad damokidebuli iqneba moqmedi xelisuflebis, aseve, opoziciis gadawyvetilebebsa da qmedebebze, anu ramdenadac sazogadoebaze orientirebul gadawyvetilebebs miiReben, iseTive iqneba sazogadoebis reaqciac. Tu mTavroba SeZlebs, adekvaturad upasuxos sazogadoebis gamowvevebs, maSin SesaZlebelia, hqondes Sansi, rom 2024 wels imave SedegiT movides xelisuflebaSi, rogoriTac 2020 wels~.
miuxedavad imisa, rom arCevnebamde 8 Tve darCa, opozicia didi aqtiurobiT ar gamorCeva. cxadia, xelisuflebas garkveuli upiratesoba aqvs. igulisxmeba administraciuli resursi da finansuri SesaZleblobebi. . . Tu sociologiur gamokiTxvebs davujerebT, saarCevno bariers mmarTvel partiasTan erTad `nacmoZraoba~, `saqarTvelosTvis~ da ,,lelo saqarTvelosTvis~ gadalaxavs, aq mTavaria, ra Sedegs dadeben zemoaRniSnuli partiebi saarCevnod. eqspertebi acxadeben, rom `sisxliani 9 weli~ `nacmoZraobis~ winaaRmdeg aRar moqmedebs da arc opoziciis braldebaa xelisuflebis misamarTiT (`uunaro mTavroba~) aqtualuri. am lozungs Zala aRar aqvs. Tu davakvirdebiT, xelisufleba ufro gaaqtiurebulia saarCevnod, vidre opozicia, romelic jerjerobiT caitnotSia. miuxedavad imisa, rom Seiqmna garkveuli platformebi, opoziciuri speqtri saTanadod ver reagirebs mmarTveli partiis braldebebze, ufro oponirebis reJimSi arian. garda amisa, mosaxleobas ar xvdebian, mxolod Tbilisis prestiJul ubnebSi Sexvedra amomrCevelTan arafers niSnavs. arCevnebSi mniSvnelovani Sedegi rom aCveno, qveynis yoveli mxare, daba, sofeli unda moiaro, moinaxulo mosaxleoba da ara – filosofiuri traqtati ukiTxo. saWiroa imis axsna, Tu rogori iqneba Seni gegma qveynis ganviTarebis kuTxiT, anu ras moimoqmedeben ekonomikuri mdgomareobis gaumjobesebisa da teritoriuli mTlianobis aRsadgenad da a. S.
opozicia ki am mxriv moikoWlebs. saerTod, saqarTvelos saarCevno istoriam gvaswavla, rom partia arCevnebamde igebs arCevnebs. ase iyo 1990 wlis arCevnebze `mrgvali magidis~ SemTxvevaSi. msgavsi suraTi ganmeorda `nacmoZraobis~ da `qarTuli ocnebis~ periodebSic. imis Tqma minda, rom gamarjvebaze koncentrirebuli partia imTaviTve unda asxivebdes gamarjvebis rwmenas da amaSi mosaxleobac unda daarwmunos, rasac ver vityviT amJamindel opoziciaze. es realobaa, Tumca opoziciur speqtrs aqvs Sansi, parlamentSi soliduri raodenobiT iyos warmodgenili da garkveulwilad, koaliciuri mTavroba Camoayalibos, Tu, ra Tqma unda, SeTanxmebas miaRwevs. proporciuli sistema amis SesaZleblobas iZleva. aq aseve mTavaria `SuaSisturi~ amomrCevli (anu, eleqtoratis is nawili, romelic arc mmarTveli partiis mxarmdaWeria da arc ,, nacmoZraobis~ gulSematkivari), ra arCevans gaakeTebs partiebis mxardaWeris TvalsazrisiT. swored maTze iqneba damokidebuli arCevnebis bedi. cnobilia, rom arCevnebze saqarTveloSi mosaxleobis daaxloebiT 55 procenti midis. Ees, garkveulwilad, xelisuflebisTvis xelsayrelia, radgan rac ufro meti amomrCeveli modis arCevnebze, miT metadaa xelisuflebis cvlilebis Sansi. es cxadyo arCevnebma 2003 da 2012 wlebSi, rom aRaraferi vTqvaT 1990 wlis istoriul arCevnebze. . .
garkveuli problemebis miuxedavad, saqarTvelo demokratiis ganviTarebis TvalsazrisiT regionSi mowinavea. damoukideblobis aRdgenidan dRemde, 32 wlis ganmavlobaSi, qveyanas meoTxe mmarTveli partia hyavs. xelisufleba 2012 wels arCevnebis gziT Seicvala (manamde revoluciuri gziT icvleboda), saprezidento mmarTvelobidan saparlamento modelze gadavediT, Tumca Cveni ZiriTadi mougvarebeli problema mosaxleobis socialuri da ekonomikuri mdgomareobaa, teritoriuli mTlianobis sakiTxi umTavresi gamowvevaa, xelisSemSlelia arastabiluri politikuri situacia, swored am sakiTxebis mogvarebisTvis unda izrunon politikosebma.