მსოფლიოს ხელახალი გადანაწილების პროგნოზები

ukve mesame welia, msoflios xelaxal gadanawilebaze daiwyo saubrebi. kacobrioba daZabuli adevnebs Tvalyurs irgvliv mimdinare politikur procesebs, xolo wamyvani qveynebis liderebi gamalebiT cdiloben, yvelaze mozrdili naWeri CamoaWran im regions, romelzec xeli miuwvdebaT. es miswrafeba sportul Sejibrs daemsgavsa, xolo masSi monawileoba aucileblobad iqca. rbolaSi lamis yvela qveyana monawileobs da msoflio gaocebuli Sehyurebs liderTa araadekvatur qcevebs Tu gancxadebebs. gvegona aRaraferi gagvakvirvebda ruseT-ukrainis da israel-erayis konfliqtis Semdeg, magram aSS-is axalma (Tu Zvelma) prezidentma seriozul SokSi Cagvagdo, imdenad moulodneli iyo mSvidobis damyarebis dapirebis Semdeg teritoriuli pretenziebis gamocxadeba panamis arxis, grenlandiis da kanadis mimarT. yvelafer amas trampma moayola evropis daSineba, putinTan kavSiris aRdgenis mcdeloba da zelenskis lamis samxedro damnaSaved gamoyvana.

`ruseTi, aSS da CineTi msoflios gavlenis sferoebad gayofisaTvis ibrZvian. vladimer putinis, donald trampisa da si Zinpinis azriT, msoflios marTva did da Zlier saxelmwifoebs Soris unda ganawildes, romlebic erTmaneTis saqmeebSi ar Caerevian. evrokavSirs aravin arafers hkiTxavs“, – wers brendan qouli amerikul Jurnal `niusviqSi~ (Newsweek). statiaSi aRniSnulia, rom: `aSS-is prezidenti donald trampi Tavis rus kolegas regularulad mouwodebs, ukrainaSi samxedro moqmedeba Sewyvitos. es xdeba kremlsa da TeTr saxls Soris msoflios gavlenis sferoebad ganawilebisaTvis brZolis fonze, romlis drosac CineTsac SeuZlia Tavisi wonadi sityva Tqvas“.

avtori ixsenebs martSi donald trampis satelefono saubars vladimer putinTan da im movlenebs, rac maT kontaqts mohyva: `e.w. maqoseburi diplomatiis realizebam – ormxrivi delegaciebis molaparakebebma jer saudis arabeTSi, Semdeg ki specialuri warmomadgenlebis Sexvedrebma aSS-sa da ruseTSi, daadastura, rom amerikel liders mtkiced aqvs gadawyvetili mSvidobis damyareba, magram, miRweuli SeTanxmebebis (energetikuli obieqtebis dabombvaTa 30-dRiani SeCereba, Savi zRvis akvatoriaSi cecxlis Sewyveta) miuxedavad, saomari moqmedebebi kvlav grZeldeba~.

miunxenisa (1938) da ialtis (1945) konferenciebis aCrdili

saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis evropuli sabWos direqtoris moadgile veselina Cernova ambobs, rom ukrainis sakiTxis ukrainis gareSe gadawyveta igivea, rac evropis bedis gadawyveta evropis gareSe: `dRevandeli mdgomareoba Zalian hgavs 1945 wlis Tebervlis ialtis konferencias, romlis drosac msoflios sami uZlieresi qveynis liderebma – franklin ruzveltma, ioseb stalinma da uinston CerCilma evropa da, zogadad, msoflio gavlenis sferoebad gadainawiles (rasac Semdeg `civi omi~ mohyva). ialtaSi didma saxelmwifoebma aRmosavleT evropis momavali gadawyvites. swored ase gamoiyureba ukrainis sakiTxis mogvarebac. Tumca ukrainis bedis gadawyveta ukrainis gareSe igivea rac evropis momavlis gadawyveta evropis gareSe~.

`ukrainis momavlis ganxilva msoflios sam liders Soris paralelebs iwvevs meore msoflio omis win momxdar kidev erT SexvedrasTan~, – ambobs Stefan volfi, birminhemis (inglisi) universitetis saerTaSoriso samarTlis profesori. misive TqmiT, donald trampis uari – ukrainisadmi usafrTxoebis garantiebis micemis Taobaze 1938 wels miunxenis konferencias hgavs, roca frangma da britanelma liderebma nacisturi germaniis beladi adolf hitleri `daamSvides~ da mas sakbilod Cexoslovakiis sudetis olqi miugdes.

Stefan volfs miaCnia, rom aSS-is dRevandeli prezidentis warmodgenis mixedviT, msoflio Zlier saxelmwifoebs Soris gavlenis sferoebad unda gaiyos, romlebic erTmaneTis saqmeebSi ar Caerevian: „rogorc Cans, Cvens Tvalwin globaluri faqti dgeba: zesaxelmwifoebi aSS da CineTi msoflios erTmaneTSi iyofen. jerjerobiT naTeli ar aris, Tu ra roli da statusi eqneba ruseTs, darCeba Tu ara vladimer putini damoukidebel moTamaSed, an kidev ufro metad damokidebuli iqneba CineTze~.

ruseTis gavlena – aRmosavleT evropaze

rogorc cnobilia, mimdinare wlis TebervalSi, miunxenis usafrTxoebis konferenciaze gamosvlisas, aSS-is vice-prezidentma jeims devid vensma evrokavSiri gaakritika, TiTqosda briuseli uunaroa, an gangeb ar surs masobrivi migraciis SeCereba. amerikelma liderma evrokavSirs memarjvene populistebis SezRudvis gamoc usayvedura. niSandoblivia, rom vensis gancxadeba dadebiTad Seafasa vladimer putinis Tanagundelma, ruseTis eqs-prezidentma dimitri medvedevma.

ufro adre aSS-is Tavdacvis ministrma piter hegseTma ukrainis 2014 wlis sazRvrebis aRdgenis idea ararealurad CaTvala. man evropul saxelmwifoebs mouwoda, ufro meti gaakeTon sakuTari usafrTxoebis uzrunvelsayofad, radgan amerikas evropelebis Zveleburad dacvis SesaZlebloba aRar eqneba – wynari okeanis regionSi CineTTan dapirispirebis gamo.

veselina Cernovas azriT, rogorc donald trampis administraciis poziciidan gamomdinareobs, aRmosavleT evropa SeiZleba bedis anabarad miatovon. aseTma perspeqtivam ar SeiZleba SeSfoTeba ar gamoiwvios: ruseTi ukve axdens gavlenas iseTi qveynebis saSinao politikaze, rogoric, vTqvaT, CexeTi, rumineTi, slovakeTi, bulgareTi da poloneTia: `ruseTi cdilobs daarRvios da Ziri gamouTxaros aRmosavleTevropul demokratias da CamoTvlili qveynebi axal konsensusamde miiyvanos, romelic donald trampis epoqaSi Zalian sasurvelad moCans. bolo TveebSi vladimer putinis aCrdili evropis rig qveynebSi gamarTuli saprotesto gamosvlebisa da arCevnebis Sedegebis fonze gamoCnda. prodasavleli politikosebi moskovs brals sdeben evrokavSiris referendumsa da moldovis saprezidento arCevnebSi Carevis gamo. mezobel rumineTSi saprezidento arCevnebis Sedegebi gauqmda, radgan pirvel turSi gamarjveba (ruseTis daxmarebiT) ukiduresad memarjvene favoritma kelin jorjeskum moipova. rasakvirvelia, ruseTis xrikebi SeumCneveli ar darCenila: rig evropul qveynebSi farTo gamosvlebi gaimarTa prorusuli xelisuflebis winaaRmdeg, romlebic kremlis politikas met-naklebad iziareben da mxars uWeren. magaliTad, slovakeTSi momitingeebma dagmes xelisuflebis mier miRebuli kanoni arasamTavrobo organizaciebis SezRudvis mizniT, romelic ruseTis mier miRebul samarTlebriv aqts hgavs, qveynis premier-ministri robert fico ki moskovTan gadaWarbebul kavSirebSi amxiles.

martSi saprotesto gamosvlebma moicva serbeTi, romlis prezidenti aleqsandr vuCiCic mWidrod aris dakavSirebuli moskovTan. garda amisa, kremlis savaraudo Carevam ungreTis saSinao politikaSi premier-ministr viqtor orbanis mowinaaRmdegeebis mrisxaneba gamoiwvia. rogorc cnobilia, viqtor orbani vladimer putinis erT-erTi axlo mokavSire da mxardamWeria evrokavSirSi.

ruseTis samxreTiT mdebare saqarTveloSic mniSvnelovani mRelvarebebi moxda – mosaxleoba mmarTveli partiis „qarTuli ocnebis“ winaaRmdeg gamovida. kritikosebi qveynis xelisuflebas moskovTan kavSirebSi adanaSauleben: maTi azriT, kremli gavlenas axdens kavkasiur respublikaze, romelsac strategiuli mdebareoba da Sav zRvaze (anu msoflio okeaneSi) gasasvleli aqvs~.

centraluri azia – ruseT-CineTis interesebSi

centraluri (Sua) azia SeiZleba ruseTisa da CineTis metoqeobis obieqtad iqces, radgan moskovsac da pekinsac, orives, surs gavlena hqondes regionis saxelmwifoebze. vladimer putinis diplomatiuri ganzraxvebis realizebis damadasturebeli faqtia misi megobruli viziti monRoleTSi, romelic SarSan seqtemberSi ganxorcielda. ulan-batorSi Casvla kremlis lideris pirveli sazRvargareTuli turne iyo mas Semdeg, rac sisxlis samarTlis saerTaSoriso sasamarTlom vladimer putinis dapatimrebis orderi gasca. monRoleTma, miuxedavad imisa, rom is romis statutze xelmomwer qveyanas warmoadgens da valdebuli iyo vladimer putini daepatimrebiana, rus liders, piriqiT, Tbili daxvedra mouwyo. monRoleTi Zalian aris damokidebuli rogorc ruseTis navTobze, gazsa da eleqtroenergiaze, aseve Cinur investiciebze samTo-mompovebel mrewvelobaSi.

Stefan volfi simbolurad miiCnevs, rom si Zinpinma Tavisi pirveli sazRvargareTuli viziti, koronavirusis pandemiis Semdeg, SarSan zafxuls yofil sabWoTa respublikaSi, yazaxeTSi ganaxorciela. gavixsenoT, rom yazaxeTis prezidentma yasim-JomarT toyaevma dagmo vladimer putinis jarebis SeWra ukrainaSi: `astanaSi yovelTvis SeSfoTebas gamoxatavdnen, rom yazaxeTi SeiZleba kremlis momdevno samizne yofiliyo. qveyanaSi bevri erovnebiT rusi da rusulenovani moqalaqe cxovrobs, Tumca yazaxebs SeuZliaT skeptikuri ganwyoba gamoxaton ruseTisa da ukrainis mimarT da mSvidad iyon: Cinelebma maT mkafiod mianiSnes, rom nebas ar miscemen moskovs, Caerion CrdiloeT yazaxeTis situaciaSi, sadac gansakuTrebiT bevri rusi cxovrobs kompaqturad~.

CineTi, aSS da dasavleTi naxevarsfero

donald trampma araerTxel ganacxada, rom mas ganzraxuli aqvs grenlandiis daufleba (SeZena), panamis arxze kontrolis dabruneba da kanadis mierTeba 51-e Statis saxiT, riTac daniis, kanadisa da panamis mTavrobebi gaaRiziana, garda amisa, usiamovneba gamoiwvia meqsikaSic, roca meqsikis yures saxeli Seucvala da amerikis yure uwoda – im mizniT, rom ukeT gamoexata Tavisi filosofia `amerika, upirveles yovlisa~.

Stefan volfis TqmiT, donald trampi cdilobs, Tavisi gavlena amerikis kontinentze, anu dasavleT naxevarsferoze ganaviTaros, magram misi xisti politika adgilobriv qveynebSi winaaRmdegobas iwvevs. garda amisa, vaSingtoni SeiZleba pekins Seejaxos, romelsac Tavisi interesebi aqvs laTinur amerikaSi: `rogorc Cans, samxreT amerikaSi Seqmnili viTareba donald tramps aiZulebs, ufro meti yuradReba dauTmos dasavleT naxevarsferos (anu Tavis ukana ezos) da uari Tqvas, misi azriT, yvela uazro da usafuZvlo valdebulebebze dedamiwis sxva regionebSi, magram jerjerobiT donald tramps ar miuRia sanatreli SeTanxmeba vladimer putinisagan ukrainis sakiTxSi. Tu moskovi vaSingtonTan ver moilaparakebs, kremlis damokidebuleba CineTze gaizrdeba. ukrainisa da ruseTis omis Sesaxeb saTaurebma msoflios gazeTebSi ukana planze gadainacvla, rac donald trampma CineTis winaaRmdeg savaWro omi daiwyo (Cinuri produqciis importze 145%-iani tarifebis SemoRebiT). Tu si Zinpini gadawyvets, rom aSS-ze SurisZiebis mizniT vaSingtonis metoqes – evrokavSirs dauaxlovdes, pekinis es savaraudo nabiji ruseTis mdgomareobas daasustebs. CineTsac mouwevs awon-dawonos Tavisi urTierToba, erTi mxriv, ruseTTan da meore mxriv, evrokavSirTan. garda amisa, ibadeba kiTxva – moilaparakeben Tu ara aSS da CineTi taivanTan mimarTebiT?~

taivani – daTmobs Tu ara aSS kunZuls?

pekini Tvlis, rom CineTis xelisuflebisgan avtonomiurad arsebuli taivani separatistul da mTavrobis winaaRmdeg amboxebul teritorias warmoadgens, amitom is centraluri xelisuflebis kontrolqveS unda dabrundes – Tu saWiroeba moiTxovs, Zalis gamoyenebiTac ki. CineTis saxalxo-ganmaTavisuflebeli armiis sabrZolo sardlobis mier gasul kviras Catarebulma samxedro msxvilmasStabianma manevrebma kidev erTxel win wamoswia mwvave sakiTxi – ras izams donald trampi, Tu pekinis armia taivanSi SeiWreba.

Stefan volfi miiCnevs, rom si SeiZleba mzad ar iyos taivanze TavdasxmisaTvis, radgan samxreT CineTis zRvaSi sxva cxeli wertilebic aris, sadac amerikas, potenciurad, mouwevs barierebi dadgas pekinis agresiulobis winaaRmdeg, magaliTad, filipinebi: `ar unda gamovricxoT pekinsa da vaSingtons Soris saidumlo SeTanxmebis SesaZlebloba im pirobiT, rom roca CineTi gaaqtiurdeba, aSS mas xels ar SeuSlis. Tu es marTlac ase moxdeba, maSin naTeli iqneba, rom samxreT CineTis zRvaSi realur baton-patronad aSS, farulad, swored pekins aRiarebs~.

irma cecxlaZe