„როგორი შედეგით-აც დასრულდება ომი უკრაინაში, ისეთი იქნება საერთაშორისო წესრიგი“

ruseTi iTxovs kapitulacias da ara – mSvidobas

msoflio Tanamegobrobis gansakuTrebuli yuradRebas am etapze ruseT-ukrainis omi ipyrobs. ra aris amis mizezi? ra interesebi ikveTeba? ra zomebs mimarTavs evrokavSiri usafrTxoebisTvis? ramdenad mosalodnelia ruseT-CineTis urTierTdapirispireba da ra gavlena eqneba am omis Sedegebs saqarTveloze? es is kiTxvebia, xSirad rom ismis, miT ufro, bolodroindeli movlenebis fonze, Tumca erTi ram udavoa – ruseTis gamarjveba an marcxi ukrainaSi uamravi qveynis beds gadawyvets aTwleulebis ganmavlobaSi. am da sxva aqtualur sakiTxebze Tavis Tvalsazriss saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis specialisti, saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa institutis (jipa) profesori giorgi koberiZe gviziarebs.

– ruseTi, faqtobrivad, adasturebs, rom cecxlis Sewyveta ar moxdeba manam, sanam oTxi regioni (zaporoJie, xersoni, donecki, luganski) ar iqneba aRiarebuli ruseTis teritoriebad kievis mier, ras fiqrobT?

– ruseTi ukrainisgan am regionebisa da plus yirimis de iure aRiarebas didi xania iTxovs. yirimis olqis garda, mas sxva arcerTi olqi mTlianad okupirebuli ar aqvs, maT Soris, arc luganskis olqi, romlis daaxloebiT 95 procenti aris mis xelSi, mTlianad verc mas flobs. naTelia, rom ruseTis mxridan ukrainisTvis imis moTxovna, de iured aRiaros sazRvrebis cvlileba, mimarTulia ara mxolod ukrainis winaaRmdeg, aramed es aris arsebuli saerTaSoriso samarTlebrivi wesrigis damxobis mcdeloba, radgan saerTaSoriso aRiareba moxdeba, Tuki erTma mxarem aRiara teritoriebis omiT dakargva. ruseTs ufro Sorsmimavali gegmebi aqvs – igi iTxovs im teritoriebis daTmobasac, romlebic jer ar auRia, maT Soris saubari maqvs iseT mniSvnelovan qalaqebze, rogorebic kramatovski da slavianskia da romlebic imdenad kargad aris gamagrebuli, rom rusebma Tuki aqamde miaRwies, Semdeg unda vnaxoT, ramdenad moaxerxeben qalaqebis aRebas. ruseTi iTxovs qalaqebis -zaporoJies da xersonis daTmobasac, arada, kargad ician, rom am qalaqebis aReba rTuli iqneba. . . mokled, ruseTi ukrainisgan iTxovs kapitulacias da ara – mSvidobas.
– `. . . me rom ara, ruseTs ukve Zalian bevri, cudi daemarTeboda, putini cecxls eTamaSeba~, – ganacxada trampma. es risi maniSnebelia?
– trampis gancxadeba SeiZleba gagebuli iyos ornairad: trampi, erTgvarad, zewolas axorcielebs kremlze da eubneba putins, rom aSS-s aqvs `karti~ xelSi da, Sesabamisad, SeuZlia ganaxorcielos svlebi kremlis winaaRmdeg, vidre ruseTi ar dajdeba molaparakebis magidasTan, es aris zewolis meqanizmi. samwuxarod, trampis aseTi gancxadebebi kremlSi seriozul safrTxed ar aRiqmeba, maT eimedebaT, rom aSS, ubralod, Caexsneba am konfliqts.

– aSS-is saxelmwifo mdivanma rubiom ganacxada, rom Tu mxareebi samSvidobo SeTanxmebas ar dadeben, aSS am procesidan gava. procesebis rogor ganviTarebas elodebiT?

– sakvanZo kiTxvaa. ruseTis didi survilia, rom aSS ukrainidan da saerTod, evropidanac gavides, miatovos Tavisi yvela mokavSire da gaxdes maqsimalurad izolirebuli yvela sxva konfliqtisagan. 90-ian wlebSi, roca klintoni iyo aSS-is prezidenti da Semdeg buSi movida mmarTvelobaSi, arsebobda aseTi gamoTqma: aSS xom ar aris msoflio policieli, romelic cdilobs, rom arsebuli saerTaSoriso samarTlebrivi wesrigi politikuri wesiT daicvas, moabilizos resursebi am yvelafris gadasarCenad. amis sapirispiro aris izolacionizmi – anu Zala, romelsac Zalian didi resursebi gaaCnia, mowydes yvela konfliqts, saerTaSoriso asparezs da sakuTar TavSi Caiketos srulad. swored amis survili aqvs ruseTs. aSS-is saxelmwifo mdivnis gancxadeba erTgvari zewolaa, magram es zewola ufro metad aris ukrainaze, rom dahyves amerikul xedvas, rac ararealisturia iqidan gamomdinare, rom grZelvadianad ewinaaRmdegeba amerikis ara mxolod politikur, aramed ekonomikur da samxedro korporaciul interesebsac, vinaidan aSS-is samxedro korporaciebi Zalian did Tanxas swored samxedro warmoebiT da iaraRis gadacemiT Souloben. Sesabamisad, izolacia aSS-s daazaralebs ara mxolod politikurad, aramed ekonomikuri kuTxiTac. sxvaTa Soris, samxedro industria aqtiurad uWers mxars donald tramps da meeWveba, rom trampma izolacionisturi nabijebi gadadgas. mokled, trampi araprognozirebadi lideria da misgan yvelaferia mosalodneli.

– sainteresoa, evrokavSiri da aSS daicaven Tu ara sanqciebTan dakavSirebul dapirebas ruseTis mimarT?

– ukrainis omi, pirvel rigSi, evropis usafrTxoebas Seexo. evropelebi kargad xvdebian, rom gaZlierebuli ruseTi agresiul oms sadRac wamoiwyebs, magaliTad, moldovaSi, an sulac belarusis aneqsias moaxdens. ar aris gamoricxuli, hibriduli omi evropuli saxelmwifoebis winaaRmdeg daiwyos. ruseTs amosunTqvis saSualeba Tu mieca, oms, raRac TvalsazrisiT, sxvagan gaagrZelebs, iseve, rogorc afrikaSi, gaauaresebs saomar moqmedebebs, riTac ara mxolod did resursebs Soulobs, aramed migracias uwyobs xels, aiZulebs milionobiT adamians, gadaadgildes evropaSi, ubombavs saxlebs, anadgurebs wyals, resursebs. . . msgavsi suraTi Cven vixileT afrikis araerT saxelmwifoSi, sadac rusi samxedroebi axlac arian. amis indikatoria burkina-faso. . . mokled, ruseTi aris Zala, romelic miT ufro Zlierdeba, rac ufro met qaoss daTesavs msoflioSi. es kargad ician evropaSi da isini ruseTis sanqciebisgan gaTavisuflebas mxars ar dauWeren.

– Tu aSS ar daexmareba ukrainas SeiaraRebis da sadazvervo informaciebis miwodebis TvalsazrisiT, evropas Seswevs Zala, aSS Caanacvlos am mxriv?

– evropa Zlierdeba, evropis qveynebma, gansakuTrebiT germaniam gamosca brZanebuleba, rom 2029 wlamde germaniis armia srulad unda gadaiaraRdes da unda Seiqmnas misi usafrTxoebis axali lokaluri qolgebi. vxedavT, rom germaniam lietuvaSi gagzavna garkveuli danayofebi, romelebic iq permanentulad ganTavsdeba. germaniis samxedro Zalebi icaven lietuvis aRmosavleT sazRvrebs suvalkis derefanSi. es derefani aris poloneTsa da lietuvas Soris, romelsac dasavleTis mxridan sazRvari aqvs kaliningradis olqTan, xolo aRmosavleTis mxridan – belarusTan. es Zalian mniSvnelovani da safrTxis Semcveli teritoriaa evropis usafrTxoebisTvis. evropelebi xvdebian, rom SeiaraRebis gareSe da aSS-is imedad yofniT maTi usafrTxoeba daculi ar iqneba. aRsaniSnavia isic, rom samxedro warmoeba Zalian momgebiani saqmianobaa. aqedan gamomdinare, evropelebi Seecdebian samxedro warmoebidan seriozuli sargeblis miRebas. viciT, rom evrokavSirma marto daafinansa rvaasmiliardiani SeiaraRebis programa evrokavSiris wevri qveynebisTvis da Tqven warmoidgineT, ramdenad meti Tanxa iqneba gamoyofili ukve wevri saxelmwifoebis mxridan TavianTi usafrTxoebisTvis.

– CineTis Sekavebis mizniT xom ar cdilobs trampi ruseTTan urTierTobis dalagebas?

– donald tramps SesaZloa, sjera, rom ruseTis dayolieba SeiZleba CineTis winaaRmdeg. ruseTi am yvelafers Tavis droze iyenebda da axlac iyenebs garkveul molaparakebebSi, TiTqos gamoxatavs mzaobas da nebas, CineTs daupirispirdes. icis ruseTma, rom CineTi aris misi gamarjvebis formula rogorc samxedro daxmarebis, ise savaWro bazris mxriv da swored amaze akeTebs aqcents. . . ruseTi da CineTi, SesaZloa, ar arian istoriuli megobrebi, maT TavianTi problemebi aqvT teritoriebTan mimarTebiT, magram taqtikurad Tu SevxedavT, sanam aSS maTi orives mteria (saubari maqvs taivanze, ukrainaze, samxreT kavkasiaze), manamde ruseTi ar gadmova CineTis navidan da ar daupirispirdeba. ar gamovricxav, samomavlod, CineTma zurgi aqcios ruseTs, an dauyenos damatebiTi mkacri moTxovnebi, Tu CineTi Zalian gaZlierda.

– rogor SeafasebdiT trampis mmarTvelobis 120–dRian periods sagareo da saSinao politikis TvalsazrisiT?

– trampi polarizebuli figuraa, magram trampamdec arsebobda polarizacia amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi. misma gamoCenam qveynis SigniT mniSvnelovanad Secvla politikuri garemo – trampma rac gadasaxadebis koreqtirebasTan Tu dafinansebasTan iyo dakavSirebuli (saerTaSoriso, adgilobrivi da saxelmwifoebis mxriv), yvelaferi Secvala da am mimarTebiT misi dapirebebi naTeli iyo. is fiqrobs, rom aSS-ma unda izrunos sakuTar Tavze da naklebad iyos orientirebuli sagareo xarjebze, romelsac ar moaqvs uSualo ekonomikuri sargebeli misTvis. aseve, mniSvnelovania, rom trampis sagareo politika xSirad cvalebadia da araTanmimdevruli. . . saerTod, aSS-is sagareo politika ar aris sworxazovani, SeuZlebelia nabijebis zustad prognozireba igive ukrainasTan mimarTebiT. es naTlad gamoCnda, rodesac ukrainis SeiaraReba jer Semcirda, dapauzda, Semdeg isev ganaxlda. mokled, tramps xvalindeli dRis zusti gaTvlebi ar axasiaTebs.

– evropuli qveynebis liderebma ganacxades, rom ukrainas ar miatoveben, am mxriv `taurusebis~ (frTosani raketa) gadacema ukrainisTvis ra dividendebs miscems kievs?

– evropelma liderebma ician, rom sanam ruseTi ukrainaSi aris gaWedili, omi maT teritoriaze ar gadava. isini ara mxolod `taurusis~ miwodebaze arian Tanaxma, aramed ukrainas aqtiurad awvdian sadazvervo informacias. magaliTad, ukrainas miewodeba safrangeTis sadazvervo informacia, aseve, teqnika, rac Tvisobrivad niSnavs imas, rom teqnologiur omSi ruseTis warmateba, praqtikulad. SeuZlebelia. omis pirvel TveebSi ise Canda, rom dasavleTis mier ukrainisTvis gadacemuli tanksawinaaRmdego da sahaero SeiaraReba maqsimumi iyo. maSin yvela ambobda, rom SeteviTi SeiaraReba ar iqneba, ruseTis teritoriazec ar ganxorcieldeba konfliqti, magram dRes vxedavT, rom yvela tabu moxsnilia da politikuri SezRudvebi minimumamde davida. yvela wiTeli xazi, romelic ruseTma gaavlo, gadailaxa, magaliTad, yirimi daibomba, omi ruseTis teritoriazec gadavida, Svidi Tvis ganmavlobaSi okupirebuli hqonda ukrainas ruseTis teritoriebi, natoc gafarTovda. es imas niSnavs, rom dasavleTs gacnobierebuli aqvs ukrainis mniSvneloba da mas ar miatovebs.

– natos da evropis gaZliereba baltiis da Sav zRvebSi ra imeds iZleva saqarTvelosTvis?

– natos wevrebi rac ufro met dros dauTmoben aRmosavleTis flangis usafrTxoebas, miT ukeTesi iqneba CvenTvis, radgan saqarTvelo moazrebulia evropis aRmosavleTis usafrTxoebis erT-erT nawilad. saqarTvelo, Savi zRva, samxreT kavkasia moazrebulia rogorc energo, saxmeleTo da sahaero derefani, rac evropis usafrTxoebis nawilia. es saqarTvelosTvis kargi Sansia, Tumca Cvens qveyanaSi axla Sidapolitikuri mdgomareoba daZabulia da amdenad, Cveni mxridan aqtiuri partniorebis an gadaiaraRebis Zieba, sanam ruseTi gaCerebulia ukrainaSi, ver xerxdeba.

– dabolos, ra gavlena eqneba ukrainis omis Sedegebs evropis, aseve, saqarTvelos momavalze?

– rogori SedegiTac dasruldeba omi ukrainaSi, iseTi iqneba saerTaSoriso wesrigi da patara qveynebis usafrTxoebac im TvalsazrisiT, rom Tuki ruseTma gaimarjva ukrainaSi, es mas saSualebas miscems, ilaparakos ultimatumebiT. magaliTad, saqarTvelosTan, moldovasTan, es SeiZleba iyos teritoriebTan da suverenitetis daTmobasTan dakavSirebiT. gamarjvebuli ruseTi niSnavs imgvar ruseTs, romelic dRis wesrigs Seqmnis samezobloSi da piriqiT – damarcxebuli ruseTi niSnavs, rom mas aRar eqneba seriozuli, prioritetuli gavlenebi samezobloSi. damarcxebuli ruseTi, aseve, gulisxmobs ekonomikurad damarcxebul ruseTs. es qveyana datova milionobiT adamianma, romelTa umetesoba aris axalgazrda anu ekonomikurad aqtiuri moqalaqe, ekonomikurad damarcxebuli ruseTi iqneba saqarTvelosTvis SesaZleblobis fanjara, rom isargeblos da miaRwios sasurvel mizans, am SemTxvevaSi gawevriandes natoSi da, ra Tqma unda, evrokavSirSi, amis Sansi arsebobs. mTavaria, roca es realoba dadgeba, saqarTveloSi iyos jansaRi politikuri viTareba da arsebobdes konsensusi, Tu ra surs saqarTvelos. saqarTvelos unda hyavdes mravali mokavSire, an hqondes usafrTxoebis aqtiuri qolga, unda hyavdes Zlieri samxedro Zalebi. ekonomikurad unda iyos CarTuli saerTaSoriso politikaSi – esaa konsensusi. amisaTvis saWiroa, rom ruseTisgan iyos rac SeiZleba Sors, vinaidan prorusuli politika gulisxmobs marto darCenas ruseTTan pirispir da demilitarizacias, radgan igi sakuTari mezoblebis Zlierebas arcerT SemTxvevaSi ar emxroba.

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