,,არავითარი ნატო არ ,,გვემუქრება”, იგი გაიგივდა მოლა ნასრედინის და სტაფილოს იგავთან”
ირმა ცეცხლაძე 27 48 93 –
dRes mTeli msoflio SeSfoTebiT uyurebs ukrainis sazRvrebTan ruseTis sajariso nawilebis Tavmoyras da imedovnebs, rom ar daiwyeba kacobriobis istoriaSi yvelaze sastiki, gamanadgurebeli omi, saidanac veravin gamova gamarjvebuli
gTavazobT intervius politolog soso manjaviZesTan, romelic msxvili moTamaSeebis mier gavlenis sferoebis saerTaSoriso gadanawilebis sqemaze saubrobs, afasebs sagareo politikur procesebs da saqarTvelos uaxloes periodSi ganviTarebis saintereso models gvTavazobs.
– batono soso, dRes yvelas yuradReba ukrainiskenaa mipyrobili. . .
– viTarebis Sefaseba mxolod globalurad Tu moxerxdeba, radgan sxvagvarad ver gavarkvevT, vin vis da ratom emuqreba, anu ukrainis sakiTxi ar aris izolirebuli globaluri politikisgan, ver ganixileba siRrmiseuli kvlevebis gareSe, radgan situacia ufro sagangaSoa, vidre erTi SexedviT Cans. pirvel rigSi, unda davinaxoT, rom dapirispireba CineTsa da aSS-s, aSS-sa da irans Soris ufro da ufro mZlavrdeba. SegaxsenebT, CineTsa da SeerTebul Statebs Soris dominirebisTvis brZolaze bevri informaciaa da yvelas gvesmis, rom es aris globaluri geopolitikis centraluri sakiTxi. iranic sakmaod gaZlierda da pirdapir safrTxes Seicavs amerikelebis hegemoniisTvis aRmosavleTSi. igi aseve safrTxes warmoadgens israelisTvis, vinaidan sadacaa atomur iaraRsac Seqmnis. amasTan, gaaCnia seriozuli SeiaraReba – dawyebuli balistikuri raketebiT, dronebiT, damTavrebuli – javSanteqnikiT. iranma Seqmna sakmaod efeqturi flotic, romelic ukve uqmnis problemebs aSS-is SeiaraRebul Zalebs da flotsac ki. irans ver gaanadgureben ise, rogorc Tavis droze gaanadgures erayi. aq didi roli eniWeba ruseTsac. izolirebulad rom ganvixiloT – ekonomikis, jarebis moculobis, uaxlesi teqnikis da teqnologiebis TvalsazrisiT ruseTi ver warmoadgens sapirwones koleqtiuri dasavleTisTvis, magram Tuki SeZlebs swor pozicionirebas, CaiTvleba angariSgasawev, mTavar Zalad dasavleTTan dapirispirebul CineT-rusul-iranul samkuTxedSi. ukve faqtia, rom dasavleTTan mimarTebaSi ruseTi efeqturad icavs pirad interesebs.
– gamodis, ruseTi mWidro kavSirSia CineTTan?
– ki, es mkafiod gamoikveTa. ruseT-CineTs Soris ukve damyarebulia strategiuli kavSiri, rac ufro daixveweba. ruseTi exmareba CineTs globaluri haersawinaaRmdego sistemis SeqmnaSi. vgulisxmob aerokosmiur teqnologiebs, romelic mxolod orpolusiani samyaros memkvidreebs – aSS-s da ruseTs gaaCnia. garda amisa, ruseTi aRrmavebs energomatareblebis miwodebis sferoSi CineTTan partniorobas, es ukanaskneli ki afinansebs ruseTis gazgamanawilebel qsels. `cimbiris Zala-1~-is garda, male Cadgeba mwyobrSi `cimbiris Zala-2~ da `cimbiris Zala-3~. warmoidgineT, TanamSromlobis ra masStabebzea saubari. ufro da ufro izrdeba savaWro brunva CineTsa da ruseTs Soris. amas emateba is, rom, sxva qveynebTan erTad, zemoxsenebuli samkuTxedic aRar malavs ganzraxvas da apirebs, Tavi daaRwios dolaris federaluri rezervis e. w. iamaikur monetarul sistemas, risi ganxorcieleba aSS-sTvis sruli kraxi iqneba.
– rac Seexeba CineTisa da iranis urTierTobebs. . .
– CineTma dado Sokismomgvreli strategiuli xelSekruleba iranTan, sadac saubaria 15 wlis ganmavlobaSi 400-miliardian investiciaze. iranis islamuri respublikis xisti poziciis mqone axali prezidenti ebrahim raisi Cavida ruseTSi da sityviT gamovida saxelmwifo dumaSi. isaubres uaxlesi rusuli saaviacio teqnikis SeZenaze da haersawinaaRmdego sistemebis (ს-400) miwodebaze. es yvelaferi sruliad cvlis axlo aRmosavleTis SeiaraRebis da ZalTa ganlagebis landSafts. saubaria ruseTidan daaxloebiT 10 miliardi dolaris Rirebulebis iaraRis Sesyidvaze. isic unda aRvniSnoT, rom Tavad ruseTic yidulobs iranisgan iaraRs, magaliTad, iranul dronebs. amas imitom vambob, rom kargad gaviazroT iranis samxedro Zalebis da SeiaraRebis ganviTarebis done. arc is unda dagvaviwydes, rom irani ar aris calke aRebuli saxelmwifo, igi 250-milioniani Siituri samyaros lideria.
– axla gadavideT ukrainaze. ra gavlenas moaxdens mTeli es sqema amJamindel daZabulobaze?
– gavixsenoT, rogor daiwyo ruseT-ukrainas Soris daZabuloba. ruseTma moiTxova werilobiTi garantiebi, rom natos samxedro infrastruqtura daubrundeboda 1997 wlis mdebareobas. mkiTxvels imasac Sevaxseneb, rom putinisa da baidenis Sexvedra Tavad baidenis iniciativiT Sedga. amerikelebma kargad ician Cem mier gaJRerebuli aliansis da im safrTxis Sesaxeb, rac am kavSirisgan elis aSS-s. aqve isic vTqvaT, rom aSS-is administracia ise pozicionirebs, aSkarad surs, SeinarCunos hegemonia, rasac aranairi perspeqtiva ar gaaCnia, radgan am procesSi yvela Semdgomi svla amZimebs situacias. mokled rom vTqvaT, ukrainis sakiTxi isev da isev emijneba natos da ruseTs. es ukanaskneli iTxovs sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis dros dafiqsirebuli sazRvrebis dacvas. ruseTi amerikelebs maSindel daTqmul pirobas axsenebs: arc erTi diumiT ar waviwevT win, anu nato ar gafarTovdeba oderis aRmosavleTiTo. amis miuxedavad, natom isargebla ruseTis mZime mdgomareobiT da gafarTovda. Sesabamisad, rogorc ki moZlierda, ruseTma daiwyo gafarToeba da globaluri pozicionireba memkvidreobiT miRebuli imperiuli instrumentebis gamoyenebiT. dResdReobiT ruseTi aris uSiSroebis sabWos wevri, mas gaaCnia Zalian Zlieri sagareo politikur-sadazvervo uwyebebi da, rac mTavaria, aqvs atomuri birTvuli triada, rac erTgvar kompensacias uwevs misi ekonomikis dabal dones aSS-sa Tu CineTTan mimarTebaSi. isic gasaTvaliswinebelia, rom Crdilouri imperia msoflioSi yvelaze mdidari qveyanaa kolosaluri resursebis da wiaRiseulis mxriv. iq cxovrobs msoflios mosaxleobis procentnaxevari da mis xelSia planetis resursebis, sul mcire, 45%. yvelaferi es kremls aZlevs saSualebas, Tavi igrZnos myarad, miT umetes, politikuri TvalsazrisiT, radgan teqtonikuri cvlilebebis winapirobebi ar Cans. SesaZloa, idealistebs moeCvenoT, rom ruseTSi SeiZleba areuloba daiwyos, magram vinc kargad erkveva situaciaSi, xedavs, rom msgavsi araferia.
– Tu yvelaferi awyobili aqvs, ra SeuSlis xels ruseTs omis dawyebaSi?
– rac unda paradoqsad mogeCvenoT, yvelaze metad visac xels ar aZlevs omi ukrainasTan, esaa ruseTi, vinaidan Tu Tavad gamova omis iniciatori, Sesabamisad, gaxdeba pasuxismgebeli, saerTaSoriso samarTali ki isea mowyobili, rom omis damwyebi mxarea pasuxismgebeli omis Sedegebze. cxadia, ruseTs omi ar unda, misTvis mniSvnelovania, moaxdinos ukrainis politikuri destabilizacia, rasac xels uwyobs Tavad ukrainis sruliad korumpirebuli da komikuri `politikumi~ prezidentiTa da misi warmoudgeneli administraciiT. specialurad ver moifiqreb am xalxis politikaSi Seyvanas, Tu qveynis dangreva ar ginda. saqme iqamde mivida, rom poroSenko, romelic pirdapir Zarcvavda ukrainas da araferze ugia pasuxi, romelmac daangria qveynis ekonomika, miiyvana ukraina srul politikur Tu samxedro katastrofamde korufciis uamravi damtkicebuli qeisiT, rasac usircxvilo ura-patriotuli demagogiiT faravda, dRes isev mogvevlina igive lozungebiT da darCa ukrainis politikur velze. aRarafers vambob sxva aqtorebze, romlebsac igive sWirT da viszec bevri Tqma SeuZlia adekvaturad moazrovne ukrainis sazogadoebas. . . asociacia xom ar wamovida saqarTvelosTan analogSi?.. arada, ukraina evropis yvelaze didi (teritoriulad) saxelmwifoa, mravalricxovani ganaTlebuli, erudirebuli, inteleqtualuri mosaxleobiT. umdidresi qveyana iyo dasavleTSi infrastruqturiT, uZlieresi mrewvelobiT, warmoudgenlad didi resursebis mqone soflis meurneobiT. SegaxsenebT, ukrainis Savmiwaniadagiani zoli absoluturad unikaluria mTel planetaze. am udidesi potencialis qveyanaSi, damoukideblobidan 30 wlis Tavze, miaRwies depopulacias. sxvadasxva gaTvliT, iq 30-32 milioni adamianiRa darCa, axalgazrdoba garbis, mTel msoflioSia mimofantuli, mimdinareobs gamalebuli deindustrializacia, uzarmazari masStabis korufcia da biujetis Zarcva. es aris ukraina – dRes. ruseTisTvis, romelic SedarebiT mdgradia politikurad, omi sruliadac ar aris aucilebeli im faqtorebis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom ukrainul reJimSi ukrainel politikosebs Soris didi ganxeTqilebaa, rasac akavebs swored am omis safrTxe da urapatriotizmi. cxadia, ruseTi Seecdeba am situaciis gamoyenebas da yvela mxriv Seuwyobs xels arsebuli Sida destabilizaciis gaRrmavebas. amasTan, arafriT dauSvebs natos samxedro infrastruqturis ganTavsebas sakuTar sazRvrebTan axlos. SesaZloa, Sig jarebi ar Seiyvanos, magram raketebiT daartyams, anu gaakeTebs igives, rasac amerika yvelgan akeTebs, rodesac mis interesebs safrTxe emuqreba (Tundac siriaSi). Tu racionalurad imoqmedebs ruseTi, ase unda imoqmedos, Tu ara da. . .
– Tavad ruseTSi ra xdeba, ramdenad aZlevT xels omi?
– cxadia, ar `awyobT~, iqac aris isteria, saomari ritorika. Tu am fonze xelisufleba didi ZalebiT SeiWreba ukrainaSi, seriozul strategiul Secdomas dauSvebs, rasac mZime Sedegebi mohyveba ruseTisTvis. es aris geopolitikuri vefxvebis, gamocdili aqtorebis saukuneobrivi brZola, romelic gansakuTrebiT gamwvavda globalizaciis epoqaSi.
– Tuki ruseTs xels ar aZlevs omi, xolo dasavleTi ver ixevs ukan, rogor ganimuxteba viTareba?
– daTmobaze ver wavlen, molaparakeba mouwevT, gadainawileben sxvadasxva sferos. geopolitikuri vaWroba ar exeba konkretulad erT saxelmwifos, am SemTxvevaSi – ukrainas. aq rTulia imis warmodgenac ki, ras, ratom da ris sanacvlod akeTeben, anu ukrainaSi konfliqtis dasaregulireblad SesaZloa, iseT qveyanaSi moxdes cvlileba, teritoriulad axlosac rom ar aris. CineTze rodesac vsaubrobT, umniSvnelovanes problemad Cans taivani. ukrainaze fokusirebuli sazogadoeba verc ki warmoidgens, rom CineT-aSS-s Soris arsebuli es sakiTxi aq rame kavSirSi iyos. axla mTavaria, ra pozicias daikavebs ruseTi amerikul-Cinur dapirispirebaSi da raze gaakeTebs aqcents, an ras moiTxovs, magaliTad, indoeTi Tu pakistani. . . anu globaluri gadanawilebis TviTmxilvelebi vxdebiT da jer veravin gaakeTebs zust prognozs, ra da rogor iqneba.
– TavisTavad dgeba saqarTvelos sakiTxi – mTel am sqemaSi ra adgils viWerT Cven?
– saqarTvelos sakiTxi rTulad aris. `sams+samis~ formati, romelsac Cveni romantikulad ganwyobili da urapatriotizmiT Sepyrobili subieqtebi araseriozulad aRiqvamen, CvenTvis mZime realobaa. saqarTvelos mTavrobas aSS-is Tavdacvis ministrma pirdapiri teqstiT aukrZala am formatSi monawileoba, rasac keli degnani yoveldRe aJRerebs. meore mxares adgilobrivi geopolitikuri aqtorebi (ruseTi, TurqeTi, irani) dganan. ruseTma da TurqeTma mogviwoda, migveRo am formatSi monawileoba, dums irani, magram igive poziciazea. saqarTvelo cdilobs raRac garantiebis miRebas. Cveni xelisufleba ar aris TviTmkvleli da arc iseTi gulubryvilo, ver aRiqvamdes da afasebdes mimdinare procesebs, ubralod, manevrirebis saSualeba ar aqvs, imdenad mokle TokiT varT dabmuli am geopolitikur dafaze.
– ra garantiebis moTxovnis saSualebas gvaZleven?
– amis Sesaxeb davwere SarSan, dekembris bolos, rom SesaZloa saubari saqarTvelos finansur habad gadaqcevaze, sadac gaTvaliswinebuli iqneba msxvili geopolitikuri moTamaSeebis interesebi. es Riad gaJRerda, rodesac rotSildebi Camovidnen. Tbilisis zRvaze da gonioSi maTi patronaJiT xdeba ekonomikuri zonebis Seqmna, sadac Tavs moiyris didi finansuri kapitali.
– gamodis, saqarTvelos iyidian?
– gamodis, rom saqarTvelo SeiZleba gadaiqces regionalur habad, sadac gatardeba msxvili geopolitikuri moTamaSeebis interesebi.
– sanacvlod moiTxoven, rom ar SevideT natoSi?
– nato isedac gamoricxulia, es aris didi tyuili, rom akontrolon qveynis xelisuflebis loialoba. qarTveli xalxi mixvda, rom nayidi, angaJirebuli saeqsperto wreebis da enjeoebis garda, natoze arc aravin saubrobs, araviTari nato ar `gvemuqreba~, igi gaigivda mola nasredinis da stafilos igavTan. . . warmoudgenelia sicrueze agebuli propagandis masStabebi, romelsac koleqtiurad awarmoebs dasavleTi sainformacio saSualebebis da mesijboqsis meSveobiT, rasac karga xani ver vacnobierebdiT. axla mixvda xalxic, rom sabWoeTis analogiuri propaganda mimdinareobs, rodesac lamis uTodanac ismis ukrainis da saqarTvelos sayuradRebod – aucileblad migiRebT!
– Tu gadaxedavT qarTul presas, naxavT, rogor imedovneben, natos CvenTvis Ria aqvs kario. . .
– ki ar imedovneben, direqtiva aqvT miRebuli, amisTvis aWmeven da, aba, ras daweren? Tu sxvagvarad gamoacxadeben, Seuwyveten dafinansebas da amiT morCeba saqme. Tu Riaa kari, ratom ar Sedian? ukrainasTan dakavSirebiT vityvi, rom, daZabulobis miuxedavad, konvenciuri omi ar iqneba, Tumca sul mTlad gamoricxvac SeuZlebelia, rodesac sazRvarTan kbilebamde SeiaraRebuli sajariso nawilebia Tavmoyrilia. . . darwmunebuli veraferSi viqnebiT, rodesac ruseTTan gvaqvs saqme.