საერთაშორისო პოლიტიკის მთავარი გამოწვევები. . .

laSa xomeriki 593 50 82 69 –

msoflioSi mimdinare politikuri da ekonomikuri procesebi TiTqmis yvela qveyanaSi poulobs gamoZaxils da mWidro urTierTkavSirSia. gamowvevebi am mxriv TvalsaCinoa: ruseT-ukrainis omi, iran-israelis urTierTdapirispireba, siriaSi asadis reJimis damxoba, CineTis mzardi hegemoniuri ambiciebi swored imas cxadyofs, rom msoflios axali marTlwesrigis formireba mimdinareobs. rogori iqneba es axali wesrigi, bevrwilad damokidebulia ruseT-ukrainis omis Sedegze, aseve imaze Tu ramdenad SeZlebs dasavleTi ara mxolod ruseTis agresiis SeCerebas ukrainaSi, aramed rogor warimarTeba aSS-CineTis TanamSromloba da ra sakiTxebi iqneba sagareo kuTxiT vaSingtonisTvis prioritetuli. am sakiTxebze gvesaubreba hamburgis universitetis politikur mecnierebaTa magistri, saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa institutis (jipa) doqtoranti koba jumuSaZe.

– saerTaSoriso politikaSi ra konkretuli movlenebi ikveTeba?

– bolo periodSi, gansakuTrebiT, siriis movlenebi gaaqtiurda, iq 50-wliani dinastiuri reJimi daemxo. es ar aris SemTxveviTi movlena, amis preistoria unda veZeboT 2023 wlis 7 oqtombris movlenebSi, rodesac, faqtobrivad, hamasi Tavs daesxa israels, Semdeg moxda hamasis ganeitraleba, amas ki mohyva israelis dapirispireba hesbolasTan. rogorc Cans, islamuri saxelmwifos erTma nawilma (romelic dabanakebuli iyo siriis CrdiloeTSi) igrZno momentumi, dro, rodesac mas SeeZlo moqmedebis dawyeba da amboxebis gagrZeleba, romelic, faqtobrivad, meeqvse welia, gaCerebuli iyo 2017 wlis Semdeg. Sesabamisad, am yvelaferSi Zalian bevri faqtori gamovlinda, ramac agrZnobina maT, rom qalaqebis dakaveba SeeZloT. aRmoCnda, rom asadis armia brZolisuunaro iyo am SetevisTvis. amboxebulebma daamxes asadis reJimi.

– ratom ver an ar daicva kremlma asadis reJimi?

– TvalnaTliv Cans, rom ruseTs Tavisi didi sabrZolo resursis Cadeba uwevs ukrainasTan brZolaSi, Sesabamisad, misTvis, am etapze, rogorc Sida, ise sagareo politikis TvalsazrisiT, mniSvnelovania ukrainis frontze gamarjveba. cxadia, ruseTisTvis umniSvnelovanesia siria, surda asadis reJimis dacva, magram prioriteti rCeba ukraina. imdenad, ramdenadac resursebis mobilizebas axorcielebs CrdiloeT koreidan, iranidan, es niSnavs, rom misi resursebi arasakmarisia niSandoblivi warmatebis misaRwevad ukrainis frontze da am resursebis siriis movlenebisTvis ganawileba mas damatebiT problemebs Seuqmnida ukrainis frontze… meore sakiTxia ara mxolod siria da xmelTaSua zRva, aramed afrikis qveynebis momarageba Tundac siriaSi arsebuli samxedro SenaerTebidan. am SemTxvevaSic kremls imedi aqvs, rom siriis arsebul reJimTanac daamyarebs urTierTobas da datovebs iq samxedro bazebs. aqedan gamomdinare, pirdapiri intervenciis saWiroeba ar daayena wina planze.

– gverds ver avuvliT amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi Catarebul arCevnebs. trampi kvlav gaxda aSS-is prezidenti. ra mTavari gamowvevebi elodeba mas sagareo politikaSi?

– yvelaze mniSvnelovani gamowveva amerikis SeerTebuli StatebisTvis CineTia. trampma icis, rom CineTi aris aqtori, romelic cdilobs mis irgvliv arsebuli, gansakuTrebiT, aziur da evropul materikze myofi qveynebis davaldebulebas finansuri, infrastruqturuli proeqtebis meSveobiT. erT-erTi maTgani aris saqarTveloc. Tundac anakliis porti, saqarTvelos xelisuflebis TanxmobiT, mibmulia Cinur kompaniebTan da, bunebrivia, tramps am rakursiT ufro moxvdeba TvalSi. CineTi iqneba is problema, romliTac trampi dakavdeba. CineTTan mibmulia ruseTi, aseve, aRsaniSnavia CineTis TanamSromloba samxreT aziis qveynebTan. Sesabamisad, trampi Seecdeba, gaaZlieros sazRvao mimosvlis arxebi, romliTac CineTi akontrolebs mTel samxreT-aRmosavleT azias. Bbunebrivia, Sav da xmelTaSua zRvazec Tavisi mokavSireebis gaZlierebas Seecdeba, rom CineTis wvdoma naklebi iyos.

– donald trampma ganacxada, rom ajobebs, Tuki kanada aSS-is Stati iqneba, aseve, ar gamoricxa grenlandiis mierTebac, es risi maniSnebelia?

– am momentSi, trampma dainaxa SesaZleblobebi, romelic misi inauguraciis Semdeg SeiZleba aqcios realobad, vgulisxmob ara mxolod imas, rom amerika aris geopolitikuri polusi, aramed am poluss, rom SeuZlia iyos ufro didi, vidre dRes aris. trampi SeiZleba ar gadavides militaristul samxedro moqmedebaze, man ubralod dRis wesrigSi daayena sakiTxebi, romliTac SeuZlia vaWroba sxva geopolitikur moTamaSeebTan, gansakuTrebiT, CineTsa da ruseTTan. igive panamis arxi, romelic man axsena, CineTisTvis aris erTgvari mokle gza transkontinentur gzasTan damakavSirebeli, Sesabamisad, am kuTxiT surs ufro meti kontroli panamis arxze. rac Seexeba grenlandias, aq ufro ruseTi hyavda mxedvelobaSi da misgan momdinare safrTxeebi amerikasTan mimarTebaSi, vfiqrob, vaWrobis sagnad gaxdis grenlandiis sakiTxs… kanada aris saerTaSoriso samarTlis subieqti, pirdapir misi mierTeba Seqmnis problemebs… ubralod, trampma daayena dRis wesrigSi sakiTxi, romelic mosagvarebelia. vgulisxmob kanadis mier sazRvris dacvas CrdiloeTidan momavali aralegali migrantebisgan, romlebic xvdebian amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi. Sesabamisad, am yvelafers gaxdis erTgvar vaWrobis sagnad da amiT ufro met dividends waiRebs amerikisken, anu misi TvalTaxedva mainc wminda amerikuli prizmidan SeiZleba davinaxoT. trampi cdilobs, amerikuli hegemoniis damkvidrebas msoflio geopolitikur TamaSebSi.

– rogor fiqrobT, CineTs gamouva msoflio politikaSi mTavari rolis Sesruleba?

– CineTi erT-erT mTavar rols Seasrulebs msoflio politikaSi da es cxadia. aqamde mTavari aqtori aSS iyo. Cven daaxloebiT ori aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi Tvals vadevnebT CineTis mzard interess saimisod, rom msoflio ara erTpolusiani, aramed mravalpolusiani gaxdes. erT-erTi aqtori aris CineTi ekonomikuri siZlieridan da ekonomikuri berketebidan gamomdinare, romelic mas gaaCnia ara mxolod uSualo samezobloSi, aramed evrokavSirsa da amerikaSic.
– aris varaudi, rom trampi Seecdeba, ukrainaSi omi daasrulos. ra aris mosalodneli?

– trampis dapireba iyo, rom oms ukrainaSi daasrulebda. rogorc cnobilia, aSS miliardnaxevriani samxedro daxmarebis pakets amzadebs ukrainisTvis. Ees, bunebrivia, xdeba baidenis da trampis administraciebis SeTanxmebiT. rogorc Cans, trampi Seecdeba mSvidobis damyarebas Zalismieri meTodebiT, rogorc es gasul saukuneSi Cven vnaxeT reiganis

mmarTvelobis magaliTze – mSvidoba ZaliT anu maqsimaluri SeiaraReba im motiviT, rom Tu Sen gadadgam Zalismier nabijs, aucileblad miiReb Zalas sapirispirod. Ees, ra Tqma unda, nebismieri atomuri saxelmwifosTvisac ki aris Semaferxebeli faqtori.

– ra unda gaakeTos dasavleTma, rom es omi ukrainis sasargeblod dasruldes?

– maqsimaluri samxedro da, aseve, inteleqtualuri daxmareba, vgulisxmob, gansakuTrebiT, jaris wvrTnas da momzadebas imisTvis, rom ukrainis armia ar eyrdnobodes postsabWoTa sivrcis samxedro teqnologiebs rogorc velze, ise dazvervis sakiTxebSi, Sesabamisad, aucilebelia ukrainis mxardaWera imisTvis, rom es omi, sabolood, Tundac lisabonamde ar mivides, vinaidan ruseTi aris imperiuli qveyana, romelsac imedi aqvs ara mxolod yofili varSavis blokis qveynebic daipyros, aramed ufro dasavleTiTac SeuZlia misvla da Tavisi Zalis demonstrireba.

– amJamad ruseTSi ra procesebi mimdinareobs? dawesebulma sanqciebma ra cxadyo?

– politikuri da ekonomikuri TvalsazrisiT, ruseTi yovelTvis iyo gamowvevebis winaSe. dawesebuli sanqciebi aris meqanizmi, romelic ruseTisnairi qveynisTvis rTulad muSaobs, rac ar niSnavs, rom sanqciebma ar imuSava. ruseTs mouwia SemovliTi gzebiT siaruli. axlandeli movlenebic cxadyofs, rom ruseTis resursebi amouwuravi ar aris. ukraina ukve aqtiurad utevs mas misive teritoriaze, Sesabamisad, misi ekonomikis arCamoSlis ZiriTadi faqtori aris navTobi, romlis gadamuSavebis raodenobamac iklo. ruseTis navTobgadamamuSavebeli obieqtebi moxvda saomar arealSi da dazianda, amdenad, misi ekonomika ganicdis ryevebs. ruseTi kriptovalutaSi cdilobs ekonomikuri balansis SenarCunebas, Tumca Tu trampis administracia gaagrZelebs ukrainis daxmarebas samxedro TvalsazrisiT, es ufro daasrulebs mis ekonomikas da ruseTs aucileblad daafiqrebs imaze, rom omi daasrulos.

– mimdinareobs axali msoflio wesrigis formireba. am mxriv, ramdenad mosalodnelia ruseT-ukrainis omma gansazRvros axali msoflio wesrigi?

– axali msoflio wesrigis Camoyalibeba ukve 2022 wlis 24 Tebervals daiwyo, rodesac ruseTis armia ukrainaSi SeiWra, es omi aucileblad gansazRvravs axal wesrigs, amaze yvela specialisti Tanxmdeba. procesi dawyebulia, Tumca ra saxes miiRebs msoflio wesrigi, amaze prognozebis gakeTeba jer naadrevia. faqtia, rom am krizisidan ukraina gamova da rogorc samxedro, ise inteleqtualuri TvalsazrisiT ufro Zlieri iqneba, SeiZleba mas mouwios garkveul daTmobaze wasvla, Tumca ukraina, rogorc msoflios geopolitikaSi mniSvnelovani rolis moTamaSe figura, gamoikveTa da iqneba erT-erT wina planze axal geopolitikur suraTSi.

– amJamad msoflioSi mimdinare politikuri movlenebi rogor aisaxeba saqarTvelos momavalze?

– saqarTvelos momavali uSualod dakavSirebulia, ra Tqma unda, Zlieri aqtorebis gadawyvetilebebTan. imdenad, ramdenadac saqarTvelo aris qveyana, romelsac aucileblad sWirdeba Zlieri partniorebi, axla Cveni xelisufleba gafacicebiT unda eZebdes partniorebs im kuTxiT, ra dakveTac gaaCnia qarTvel xalxs. es dakveTaa prodasavluri momavali. Sesabamisad, Tu arsebul xelisuflebas eyofa goniereba, daniSnos axali arCevnebi, anu aRadginos xidebi evropasTan, es aisaxeba ukve pozitiurad da Cven mogvecema ganviTarebis Sansi. Tu xelisufleba ar moegeba gons, gaagrZelebs igive ritorikiT saubars qarTvel xalxTan, Seecdeba asiaTasobiT quCaSi gamosuli adamianis ignorirebas, maSin es procesebi gamoiwvevs imas, rom saqarTvelo daukavSirdeba iseT Zalebs, rogorebicaa ruseTi, irani, CineTi. Bbunebrivia, es Cvens qveyanaze katastrofulad aisaxeba, Cven gavxdebiT ukana ezo aseTi qveynebis da davkargavT Zlieri momavlis Seqmnis perspeqtivas. gvaqvs imedi, rom Cveni dasavleli partniorebi dagvexmarebian, SevdgeT rogorc saxelmwifo, saamisod es gza gadis mxolod dasavleTze, magram, am SemTxvevaSi, ara e. w. xelisuflebis aramed legitimuri xelisuflebis gadawyvetileba iqneba mniSvnelovani. Cveni momavali pirdapiraa damokidebuli qveyanaSi politikuri krizisis mSvidobianad gadawyveta.
– mmarTveli partiis wevrebis gancxadebiT, ivaniSvili da saqarTvelos mTavrobis zogierTi warmomadgenli aSS-ma imitom daasanqcira, rom qveyana omSi ar CaerTo. ras fiqrobT?

– situacias Semdegi kuTxiT SevxedoT: amerikeli senatoris jo uilsonis bolodroindeli gancxadebebi mravlismTqmelia. bolo periodSi saqarTvelos premier-ministri irakli kobaxiZe Zalian dauaxlovda irans, agreTve gaismis xmebi imis Sesaxeb, rom anakliis porti Cinuri resursebiT unda aSendes, aqedan gamomdinare, qveynis CarTva omSi swored aseT nabijebs SeuZlia. Cvenma xelisuflebam ki ar gadagvarCina oms, aramed mivyavdiT da axlac mivyavarT omisken, aseTi nabijebi aucileblad gaamwvavebs situacias da ruseTi kidev ufro meti mondomebiT ecdeba, `daicvas~ Tavisi yofili gavlenis sfero, daicvas, ra Tqma unda, brWyalebSi, es pirdapir niSnavs omis dawyebis provocirebas. ase rom, xelisuflebis saubari imaze, rom loialuri politikiT ruseTTan oms gadavrCiT, aris absoluturad mcdari warmodgena.

– dabolos, 2025 weli saqarTvelos saSinao da sagareo politikis TvalsazrisiT rogori iqneba?

– Cven 2024 wels SevabijeT Rrma politikur krizisSi, wlis bolos xelisuflebam Sinaur wreSi moaxdina e. w. prezidentis inauguracia. Ffaqtobrivad, es welic daiwyo krizisiT, Sesabamisad, movlenebi didadaa damokidebuli qarTveli xalxis gonierebaze, romelic awarmoebs legitimur protests, aseve, arsebuli xelisuflebis gonierebazec. mTavari amocana unda mdgomareobdes imaSi, rom ar daviRaloT da protesti iyos gangrZobadi, aseve, mSvidobiani, ar moxdes protestis komprometireba raime Zaladobrivi meTodiT, Tundac Semogzavnili adamianebis mxridan provakaciebis mowyobiT. ase rom, es weli iqneba mZime Cveni qveynisTvis. yvelaze ukeTes SemTxvevaSi, Cven gvelodeba Semodgomaze arCevnebi da es arCevnebi unda Catardes TviTmmarTvelobis arCevnebTan erTad, rasac unda erTvodes dakavebulebis gaTavisufleba. yvelaze uaresi versia aris is, rom Tu xelisuflebam gaagrZela Cveuli ritorikiT saubari da moqmedeba, qveyana srul izolaciaSi aRmoCndeba, rac saqarTvelosTvis savalalo iqneba.