დიდი მოლოდინის შუქ-ჩრდილები
laSa xomeriki 593 50 82 69 –
aSS-is axali prezidenti 20 ianvars oficialurad Seudga uflebamosilebis Sesrulebas. rogor warimarTeba movlenebi msoflioSi, rogoria Ddonald trampis gegmebi, rodis dasruldeba ruseT-ukrainis omi, rogor ganviTardeba procesebi CineTTan da iranTan, aseve ar Seicvleba saqarTvelosa da dasavleTs Soris urTierTobebSi – es is sakiTxebia, romelTa gacnobiereba da sasurvelad gadaWra, am etapze, umniSvnelovanesia mTeli msofliosTvis da romlebzec gvesaubreba saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis specialisti, saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa institutis (jipa) profesori giorgi koberiZe.
– donald trampis prezidentad arCeviT ra icvleba msoflioSi?
– donald trampi gamokveTilad memarjvene prezidentia. bolo wlebSi aSS-is prezidentis administraciaSi SedarebiT centristi da memarcxene politikosebi Warbobdnen, TviT trampis pirveli administraciis periodic ar iyo aseTi memarjvene Sexedulebis, rogoric is dRes aris, rac Tvisebrivad mianiSnebs im faqtze, rom memarjvene poziciebis gamyareba msoflioSi sakmaod efeqturad mimdinareobs.
– ra gzavnilebi ikiTxeboda trampis sainauguracio sityvaSi?
– rogorc cnobilia, trampma daaanonsa amerikis ekonomikuri da politikuri zrda, maT Soris sakmaod proaqtiuli sagareo politika, amas imitom vusvam xazs, rom aSS wlebis ganmavlobaSi iyo ufro rezonansul poziciaSi, anu roca raRac xdeboda, is mxolod Semdeg gascemda pasuxs, anu iyo mopasuxis poziciaSi. dRes es yvelaferi ase aRar iqneba arc saSinao da arc sagareo politikaSi.
– ra mTavari gamowvevebi elodeba tramps sagareo politikis TvalsazrisiT?
– SeiZleba iTqvas, rom aSS mokavSireebTan da mowinaaRmdegeebTan iqneba sakmaod principuli da xisti. trampis administracia, am mxriv, garkveulwilad, gamoirCeoda. magaliTad, natosTan mimarTebiT is iTxovda imaze mets, vidre natos wevri qveynebi akeTebdnen, maT Soris, saubari maqvs dafinansebis zrdaze, rac principulad swori pozicia iyo. dRes es yvelaferi gazrdilia, trampi adre ambobda, rom natos wevrebs qveynis mSp-s ori procentiT unda daefinansebinaT organizacia, dRes is ukve iTxovs xuT procentamde dafinansebas, rac Zalian did zrdaze miuTiTebs. xazi unda gaesvas, rom trampis administracias araprognozirebadoba axasiaTebda da maRali albaTobiT am xazs moqmedi xelisuflebac gaagrZelebs, poziciebi, romlebic gaJRerda (saubari ar maqvs grenlandiasa da panamaze), SedarebiT zogadia, magram es ar niSnavs, rom daskvnebs ver gamovitanT. trampis administracia iqneba ufro aqtiuri, magram amaSi ra SeiZleba igulisxmebodes da rogor SeiZleba konkretul viTarebaSi Seicvalos, jer kidev gasarkvevia.
– CineTis mzardi geopolitikuri miznebis, ruseTis imperiuli zraxvebis, iranis birTvuli ambiciis aRsakveTad tramps ra meqanizmebi aqvs?
– trampisTvis naTelia, rom erTpolusiani samyaro, romelSic aSS dominirebda, icvleba da asparezze gamodian iseTi Zalebi, rogoric CineTi, ruseTi an Tundac irania. maT Sesakaveblad aSS-s mouwevs meti resursis daxarjva. aSS-ma SeiZleba ganxeTqileba Seitanos Cinur, rusul da iranul RerZSi da Seecados erTmaneTs gadaamteros aRniSnuli moTamaSeebi, Tumca amis ganxorcieleba saeWvoa, radgan, mocemul realobaSi, rusuli, Cinuri da iranuli koalicia Seqmnilia ara raRac ideologiaze, miznebze, aramed amerikis siZulvilze dayrdnobiT, Sesabamisad, trampis erTaderTi mcdeloba SeiZleba iyos molaparakebebis warmoeba da Tvisebrivad xisti RonisZiebebis gatareba ama Tu im saxelmwifosTan mimarTebiT. yovel SemTxvevaSi, es iqneba raRac precedentuli qcevebi, anu precedentul dasja-dajildoebasTan gveqneba saqme.
– ra SeiZleba iTqvas trampis gegmaze ukrainasTan dakavSirebiT?
– trampis pozicia ukrainasTan mimarTebiT aris yvelaze bundovani, magram igi Seecdeba putini dasvas molaparakebebis magidasTan, is pirobebi SesTavazos ruseTs da ukrainas, romliTac saerTaSoriso samarTlis wesrigi gadarCeba. es niSnavs ara mxolod cecxlis Sewyvetas, aramed ukrainis teritoriuli mTlianobis aRiarebas, sxva SemTxvevaSi, Tuki ukrainis teritoriuli mTlianoba ar iqneba molaparakebebis Semdeg aRiarebuli, es avtomaturad niSnavs dapyrobiTi omebis dabrunebas da arsebuli samarTlebrivi wesrigis moSlas. savaraudod, trampi ruseTze zewolis politikas kidev ufro gaaZlierebs, raTa daiyolios igi im tipis molaparakebaze, romelic iqneba nakarnaxevi aSS-is mier, Tumca ruseTis poziciebi iseTi aris, rom ukrainis teritoriuli mTlianoba iqnas aRiarebuli, naklebad mgonia.
– ise Cans, rom dasavleTi arc ukrainis gamarjvebiT da arc ruseTis realuri marcxiTaa dainteresebuli. . .
– wlebis ganmavlobaSi ar iyo Camoyalibebuli, ras gulisxmobda ruseTis gamarjveba da ukrainis damarcxeba, an piriqiT – ukrainis gamarjveba da ruseTis marcxi, amaze midioda diskusia, kamaTi da a.S. dResac es yvelaferi bolomde Camoyalibebuli ar aris. Tavdapirvelad igulisxmeboda, rom ruseTi damarcxdeboda, Tuki kievs ver aiRebda. ra Tqma unda, kievi ver aiRo, amitomac misi mTavari strategiuli mizani Seusrulebeli darCa, ruseTis srulmasStabiani gamarjveba ver Sedga, magram omis dRevandel viTarebaSi am srulmasStabian gamarjveba-damarcxebaze aRar aris saubari, aq ukve aris saubari, Tu romeli mxare imarjvebs da romeli mxare Seqmnis precedents. realurad, ruseTisTvis gamarjveba iqneba am teritoriebze (romelic mas okupirebuli aqvs) deiure kontrolis mopoveba, an imgvari kontrolis mopoveba, romelic gulisxmobs, rom es teritoriebi misi SeiZleba gaxdes. Tu es asec moxda (risi Sansi minimaluria), cxadia, arsebul saerTaSoriso wesrigs srulad daarRvevs, rac CvenTvis da yvela saxelmwifosTvis Zalian saSiSia. Mmeore – ruseTis warmateba iqneba cecxlis Sewyveta, magram ukrainam ver miiRo veranairi garantia, vgulisxmob ver miiRo natoSi gawevrianeba, aseve verc dasavleTis SeiaraRebuli Zalebis ganTavseba Tavis teritoriaze, es yvelaferi cxadia didi problema iqneba ukrainisTvis, radgan SeiZleba ruseTs ar hqondes am teritoriebze deiure kontroli, magram eqneba placdarmi, rom samomavlod sabotaJi ganaxorcielos ukrainis winaaRmdeg, anu ganaaxlos sabrZolo moqmedebebi. ruseTis sruli marcxi gulisxmobs misi Zalebis gayvanas ukrainis teritoriidan, an ukan daxevas, Tundac omamdel poziciamde. ai, am SemTxvevaSi iqneba es erTgvari marcxis aRiareba ruseTis mxridan. ukrainisTvis sakmaod didi warmatebis pirobaa isic, Tuki ruseTis samxedro Zalebi gaaCeres. cecxli Sewydeba, ukraina Seva natoSi, ukrainis militarizacia daiwyeba, romelic adre Tu gvian ruseTis dasustebiT aucileblad isargeblebs da SesaZloa Tavisi dRis wesrigi daayenos ruseTis winaaRmdeg. swored amis eSinia ruseTs, romlebmac icis, rom dro maincdamainc masze ar muSaobs (grZelvadian periodze maqvs saubari) da swored amitomac cdilobs, ukrainis sakiTxi rac SeiZleba male moagvaros, an Tuki male ver moagvarebas, is mainc ar dauSvas, rom ukraina natoSi Sevides da ar moxdes am qveynis aqtiuri militarizacia.
– eqspertebi acxadeben, rom dasavleTis da saqarTvelos urTierTobebi uaresdeba da Tu es procesi gagrZelda, qveyana izolaciaSi moeqceva. . .
– ver vityodi, rom saqarTvelos da dasavleTs Soris urTierTobebi uaresdeba. Uuaresdeba `qarTuli ocnebis~ politikur Zalasa da dasavleTs Soris urTierTobebi. unda aRiniSnos, rom dasavleTi regionidan ki ar gadis, aramed amcirebs garkveul CarTulobas saqarTvelosTan mimarTebiT, es ra Tqma unda damazianebeli iqneba ekonomikurad da samxedro TvalsazrisiT, sxvaTa Soris, kulturuli TvalsazrisiTac. cnobilia, rom saqarTvelo damoukidebelobis 34 wlis ganmavlobaSi cdilobda marTlac ganviTarebuliyo swored dasavluri daxmarebiT, dasavluri aqtiuri CarTulobiT, rac problema ar iyo, piriqiT – dasavleTi amaSi aqtiurobda da praqtikulad, yvela mxridan. dRes es politika gadaixeda. miuxedavad imisa, rom dasavleTi ar cdilobs aranairad saqarTvelos mosaxleobis dazianebas, mmarTveli partia Tu gawyvets kavSirs da Camoekideba mxolod rusul-Cinur orbitas, Sedegi iqneba Zalian mZime saqarTvelosTvis.
– yalibdeba Tu ara axali msoflio wesrigi?
– axali msoflio wesrigi damyardeba, Tuki ruseTi ukrainaSi gaimarjvebs an dasavleTi Caiketeba da miecema sruli kartblanSi ruseTs, CineTs, irans da maT mokavSireebs, Tundac, msoflios danarCen nawilSi, sadac dasavleTi ar aris. es igulisxmeba axal msoflio wesrigSi. jerjerobiT, am mxriv, konturebia gamoxatuli, magram am konturebidan Cans, rom aradasavluri Zalebi ecdebian dRis wesrigSi (yoveldRiurobaSi) daabrunon dapyrobiTi omebis seriebi da yvela susti saxelmwifo, potenciurad, SeiZleba aRmoCndes samizne, rac Zalian didi safrTxis Semcvelia, dRes gzajvaredinze vdgavarT, nebismier mdgomareobaSi SeiZleba miviRoT axali msoflio wesrigi, samyaro aRar aris iseTi, rogoric ramdenime wlis win iyo, igi gaxda ufro mkacri, xisti, ufro araprognozirebadi da samarTlebriv normebze naklebad damokidebuli.
– saqarTvelo rom ar aRmoCndes ruseTis orbitaze, qveynis xelisuflebam ra unda gaakeTos?
– ruseTi axla aris dasustebuli, iseTi rogoric ar yofila bolo or aTwleulSi, Sesabamisad, saqarTvelosTvis es aris unikaluri Sansi, sruliad mowydes mas da gadaerTos dasavlur orbitaze. ruseTs saqarTvelosTvis ar scalia, sanqcirebulia, mZime omSia CarTuli, aqvs umZimesi danakargebi, magram Tuki am omSi gaimarjvebs, Tuki saqarTvelos xelisufleba (vinc ar unda iyos) iqneba prorusuli, Tuki saqarTvelo amasobaSi ar gaZlierdeba, ar Semova dasavluri fuli, dasavluri daxmareba, Cveni qveyana ar Seecada saswrafo wesiT gawevrianebas evrokavSirsa da natoSi, ruseTi aucileblad isargeblebs am yvelaferiT. Sesabamisad, saqarTvelos es unikaluri gaZlierebis fanjara, romelic hqonda, momavalSi SeiZleba aRar hqondes, amitom dRes Cveni politikuri elitebis xelSi aris sruli kartblanSi, Tu maT marTla surT dasavleTisken swrafva, amaze kargi Sansi bolo or aTwleulSi ar yofila. 20 wlis win ruseTi ufro Zlieri iyo, vidre dRes aris. . . rogorc vTqviT, igi imyofeba konfliqtSi, sadac, garkveulwilad misi bedi wydeba. amJamad ruseTis prioriteti saqarTvelo ar aris, rogorc 2005-2010 wlebSi iyo. . . mas saqarTvelosTan mokavSireoba ar unda, kremlis interesia saqarTvelo dasustebuli, gamofituli da masze damokidebuli, uperspeqtivo saxelmwifo iyos, romelsac arc teritoriuli mTlianoba eqneba da arc samomavlo perspeqtiva.
– dabolos, dasavleTma ra unda gaakeTos, rom ruseTma Tavis mizans ver miaRwios?
– ruseTi Tavis mizans ver miaRwevs, Tuki aRar eqneba politikuri neba, rom awarmoos omi. es mas ar eqneba im SemTxvevaSi, Tu misi samxedro Zalebi iqnebian gamofitulni. sxva SemTxvevaSi, ruseTi politikur nebas ar dakargavs. omi, rogorc Teoretikosi maik martini ambobs, sruldeba ara frontis xazze, aramed adamianebis gonebaSi. rodesac liderebi darwmundebian, rom oms ver moigeben, isini oms veRar moigeben, magram sanam maT aqvT politikuri neba, rom omi gaagrZelon da iyvnen agresiulebi, manamde omi ar dasruldeba. swored es aris amosavali wertili. mokled, omis dasasruleblad saWiroa uzarmazari mzaobis gamoxatva dasavleTisgan da SeiaraRebis miwodeba ukrainisTvis, sxva SemTxvevaSi, Zalian rTuli iqneba ruseTTan omis mogeba. dasavleTs uwevs brZola ara mxolod ukrainisTvis, aramed sakuTari dRis wesrigis gadasarCenad, rac niSnavs – ukrainas maqsimalurad daexmaros da ruseTs winaaRmdeg gamoiyenos Tavisi politikuri neba, romelic agresors daukargavs motivacias, kvlav CarTuli iyos aqtiur sabrZolo moqmedebaSi.